How many teams will be in the big 4 leagues in 2030?

MMC

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How many teams do you think each league will have by the end of the decade, with possible expansions (or contractions)? I predict:

NFL - 32

NBA - 30

NHL - 32

MLB - 32, expanding to Montreal and Nashville.

Expansion rumors for the NBA will start to pick up steam, but it won't happen yet. Any serious rumors about further NHL, MLB, or NFL expansion will happen in the 2030s or later.
 

Big Z Man 1990

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NBA will add Seattle and Vancouver this decade. Now that there is a new arena in Seattle there is no excuse not to bring the NBA back there.

Vancouver would join along with Seattle because of the opportunity for a perfect geographic alignment, moving Minnesota to the Central and Oklahoma City to the Southwest, with Seattle and Vancouver replacing those two in the Northwest.

The regular season will be tweaked to further emphasize division games. Teams in the 6 team divisions play each other 6 times for 30 games, and teams in the 5 team divisions 7 times for 28 games. Every other team is played twice each. I've been saying for years the NBA does not play enough division games.
 
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mouser

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I feel confident the NFL won’t expand—the owners prefer to keep their slice of the TV pie and convincing two markets to build new stadiums for expansion is unlikely. +0

I think the NBA would like to have a team in Seattle if an owner pays the yet to be determined $1B+ expansion fee, and the NBA shouldn’t be afraid to run with an odd number of teams. Not as confident the NBA would like the second team location options. +1

NHL. Only if someone in Houston wants to pay the expansion price, which is currently unlikely. Otherwise nothing. +0 with a long shot of +1.

MLB very difficult to gauge since it’s not clear how much financial backing will step up for the prospective markets. I do think there’s a good chance two new teams are approved within the next 5 years. So +2


So my guess is 3 new teams, with a lesser possibility of a 4th team in the NBA or NHL (Houston only).
 
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Big Z Man 1990

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The NBA won't willingly only expand by one. If the NBA can help it, they want every team that they have to play a game on the regular season's final day. That can't happen with an odd number of teams. By having all teams play on the final day, all playoff teams that start play on the same day will having equal preparation time.

Besides, it's time Vancouver have another shot at the NBA.

The real reason the NFL won't go beyond 32 is because it would mess up the schedule formula in place since 2002. The NFL since that time has preferred entering new markets by way of relocation, even if said relocation becomes controversial.

Major League Baseball will expand to 32 by the end of the decade, but I would prefer a radical realignment based on history, as discussed in this thread.
 
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hockeyguy0022

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What do you guys think is going to happen with the CFL? Obviously stadium implications have some long-term plans/idea about NFL in Toronto, but that also plays into the CFL...

I think Vancouver is an easy spot to put another NBA team, especially with the success of the raptors now. Should be easy money right for the get go.
 

garbageteam

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Jan 7, 2010
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Realistically by 2030, NFL 32, NBA 30, MLB 32, NHL 32, as the OP had projected. For non big 4 teams, CFL I think has a realistic shot at 10 by 2030, MLS likely 32.

NBA hasn't seemed serious about expansion in a while and may be gun shy on further talent dilution. MLB on the other hand has been very vocal about adding two more teams and I strongly feel they will finally get it done this decade. NHL and NFL likely stays put. CFL's Atlantic expansion I feel will finally come to fruition since the investors sound serious, MLS will use the 2026 World Cup to add their final two teams.

A more optimistic/lofty projection would see the NBA go up 2 more teams. Vancouver would be a great market but I am not seeing any major support or owners come up for it, Seattle far more likely. Maybe not mutually exclusive, could see both. I can't see the NHL expanding this decade, but there is still an outside chance of relocations to Houston and Quebec, in order of likelihood. JMO, these pure speculations seem to offend people sometimes. I don't follow the NFL too closely but the last thing I've heard was this ill-fated London expansion which seems a long way from happening now, so I can't project whether they will in an optimistic scenario go to 34 or 36.
 

tarheelhockey

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Back when all the leagues hit 30 teams in the early 2000s, I didn't think we'd see expansion again for another lifetime. It just didn't seem possible to keep adding teams after that. When the NFL kept going to hit 32, it seemed like more of a fluke scenario to fix mistakes in Cleveland and Houston.

Now that the NHL is sitting at 32 as well, and the NBA is talking about coming up to that number, I still just cannot imagine another round of expansion. 34 is a weird number, so I'd have to think the next levels are 36 and then 40.

Can you imagine 36 or 40 teams? It doesn't seem like a coherent league, sort of like when you get 40 people in a room it's no longer really a coherent group of people anymore. It's actually several mini-groups stuck together by association.

But then again, I can't imagine these leagues not continuing to grab expansion cash when it's available. So the implausible also seems inevitable.

I think where I land on this is, they can continue to expand but they're going to have to do something to increase the number of championships, and make non-championship seasons relevant. Like, midseason mini-tournaments or something. I cannot imagine consumers being interested in a league where you can only expect a championship payoff once or twice in a lifetime.
 
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HisIceness

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A year ago I was of the opinion that the NBA was about 3 years from expanding by 2. I know the league has said they won't but I think it was coming. It still could but Covid is probably going to prevent that.

I'm not sure what is going to happen w/ MLB. The Rays have "explored" the idea of splitting time between Tampa and Montreal, which lets be honest isn't healthy for that franchise, or the league.

I don't think we will see the NFL expand anytime soon. They're set at 32. Ditto NHL.

MLS will probably be the first to go past 32, but they'll probably do the regulation thing or whatever, you'll have to forgive me as I pay little attention to Soccer.
 
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HisIceness

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One thing that you have to keep in mind, how many markets are left that could realistically house a major league team? The only one I can think of that has nothing would be Louisville (Austin is getting MLS so for the sake of argument I'm taking them out of the equation here). After that, it gets really thin and would take a hail-mary and then some to happen. That isn't to say L-Ville is a slam dunk but there's decent opportunity for corporate support there, which is really important.
 

blueandgoldguy

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It's pretty amazing that a city the size of Pittsburgh with 2.2 million and next to no growth has 3 teams in the big-4 pro leagues while a similarly sized city of Austin which is experiencing tremendous population growth and appears to have impressive economic clout has zero. I don't count MLS which will be coming next year as it has significantly less revenue than even the NHL.

I guess it's close proximity to Houston and San Antonio really limit the possibilities of future expansion/relocation within the big-4 pro leagues? That, and lack of suitable facilities of course. The new arena looks great in the renders but will only seat 15,000 max for "big basketball games"...too small for the NBA. Even if the footprint of the building is big enough to accommodate hockey without having to deal with thousands of obstructed seats (I don't think it is being built with hockey in mind) it would likely only seat 13,000 which is too small for a long term facility.

In the end, I guess folks in Austin will have to settle for cheering for pro teams in nearby cities.
 

CHRDANHUTCH

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It's pretty amazing that a city the size of Pittsburgh with 2.2 million and next to no growth has 3 teams in the big-4 pro leagues while a similarly sized city of Austin which is experiencing tremendous population growth and appears to have impressive economic clout has zero. I don't count MLS which will be coming next year as it has significantly less revenue than even the NHL.

I guess it's close proximity to Houston and San Antonio really limit the possibilities of future expansion/relocation within the big-4 pro leagues? That, and lack of suitable facilities of course. The new arena looks great in the renders but will only seat 15,000 max for "big basketball games"...too small for the NBA. Even if the footprint of the building is big enough to accommodate hockey without having to deal with thousands of obstructed seats (I don't think it is being built with hockey in mind) it would likely only seat 13,000 which is too small for a long term facility.

In the end, I guess folks in Austin will have to settle for cheering for pro teams in nearby cities.
I would seriously consider MLS as an option./FORCE TO be reckoned with... it's been now 25 years of that league after tonight's Columbus/Seattle game on FOX
 
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kaiser matias

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Back when all the leagues hit 30 teams in the early 2000s, I didn't think we'd see expansion again for another lifetime. It just didn't seem possible to keep adding teams after that. When the NFL kept going to hit 32, it seemed like more of a fluke scenario to fix mistakes in Cleveland and Houston.

Now that the NHL is sitting at 32 as well, and the NBA is talking about coming up to that number, I still just cannot imagine another round of expansion. 34 is a weird number, so I'd have to think the next levels are 36 and then 40.

Can you imagine 36 or 40 teams? It doesn't seem like a coherent league, sort of like when you get 40 people in a room it's no longer really a coherent group of people anymore. It's actually several mini-groups stuck together by association.

But then again, I can't imagine these leagues not continuing to grab expansion cash when it's available. So the implausible also seems inevitable.

I think where I land on this is, they can continue to expand but they're going to have to do something to increase the number of championships, and make non-championship seasons relevant. Like, midseason mini-tournaments or something. I cannot imagine consumers being interested in a league where you can only expect a championship payoff once or twice in a lifetime.

I think one option to address how to cope with a 40 (or whatever) team league, is to model it on something like how baseball was: MLB was the overall system for it, but the AL and NL were effectively separate leagues, and only met during the World Series. Granted such a strict delineation would be hard to put in place, but it isn't practical to have 40 teams playing each other over an 82 game season, so there would have to be some type of limit.

That again makes me think of baseball, which had interleague play that had limited series' between the leagues (though I believe that is all but gone now? I don't follow baseball enough to keep up). Something like that could mean that the West and East stay in their conferences during the season, but one division from the other plays a series or something like that.
 

DaveG

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Apr 7, 2003
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A year ago I was of the opinion that the NBA was about 3 years from expanding by 2. I know the league has said they won't but I think it was coming. It still could but Covid is probably going to prevent that.

I'm not sure what is going to happen w/ MLB. The Rays have "explored" the idea of splitting time between Tampa and Montreal, which lets be honest isn't healthy for that franchise, or the league.

I don't think we will see the NFL expand anytime soon. They're set at 32. Ditto NHL.

MLS will probably be the first to go past 32, but they'll probably do the regulation thing or whatever, you'll have to forgive me as I pay little attention to Soccer.

I can see the MLS going to 40 ending up with 2 regional leagues who's champions play for the MLS cup final or what have you at that point. Honestly that's felt to me like their end game for a while as they've ramped up expansion.

With you on the NBA, I think the big thing they're looking for is someone to step up to be franchise 32 as I think Seattle is a given as 31. The league probably wants to make another go at Vancouver with Louisville or KC as fallback options. But the most likely candidate for the Louisville option became toxic the past few years and KC seems to be in no rush to want an anchor tenant in their arena.

NHL will likely stay at 32, same with the NFL though they'll continue to see relocations (Jacksonville in the next 3-4 years to start with I'd bet), and MLB won't expand until the Tampa situation is stabilized.
 
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tarheelhockey

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It's pretty amazing that a city the size of Pittsburgh with 2.2 million and next to no growth has 3 teams in the big-4 pro leagues while a similarly sized city of Austin which is experiencing tremendous population growth and appears to have impressive economic clout has zero. I don't count MLS which will be coming next year as it has significantly less revenue than even the NHL.

I guess it's close proximity to Houston and San Antonio really limit the possibilities of future expansion/relocation within the big-4 pro leagues? That, and lack of suitable facilities of course. The new arena looks great in the renders but will only seat 15,000 max for "big basketball games"...too small for the NBA. Even if the footprint of the building is big enough to accommodate hockey without having to deal with thousands of obstructed seats (I don't think it is being built with hockey in mind) it would likely only seat 13,000 which is too small for a long term facility.

In the end, I guess folks in Austin will have to settle for cheering for pro teams in nearby cities.

I agree that it's about time for Austin to get a major league team, but it should be noted that University of Texas football is effectively the same thing as an NFL from a market-saturation standpoint.

This is also what keeps a city like Columbus at 1 major league team, compared to comparable sized cities like Indianapolis and KC which have multiple. As far as that city is concerned, OSU football arguably takes up more of the market than an NFL team ever could.

One other factor, and I don't know the city well enough to have an informed opinion on what this means: Austin is part of an MSA with Round Rock/Georgetown, but it is not part of a CSA at all. The only other major-league-sized cities not be part of a CSA are San Diego and Tampa, which are both considerably larger than Austin. CSAs are based on connectivity between suburbs, as measured by economic ties and commuter patterns, so might it be that Austin has less market "reach" than one would expect?

By comparison, Austin is roughly the same MSA size (~2.2M) as Las Vegas and Kansas City. The other two cities' CSAs add another 10% or so of economic "reach".
 

KevFu

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I think we tend to assume a way too aggressive timeline on "intend to expand" and "new team starts play."

Like I think MLB will be at 32 teams in 2030 in the same way we all said the NHL will be at 32 teams in 2020. We have been talking about "The NHL IS EXPANDING AGAIN" for like 12 years now and Seattle still hasn't started playing.

Like 2029-2030-2031 is when I expect two of Nashville, Montreal and Portland to be in MLB for the first year (and I expect MLB will ruin things with a terrible alignment instead of going with my sound ideas).
 

Big Z Man 1990

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The four-league alignment in MLB could gain a lot of traction if Houston and Texas want out of the AL West bad enough.

And if the Western teams want enough to heavily reduce the amount of games they play east of the Mountain Time Zone.
 

Big Z Man 1990

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Basically, if the definitions of Eastern and Western United States were based solely on time zones, the Eastern/Central portion of the country (as well as Atlantic territories) would be the Eastern United States (which would include 22 MLB teams upon expanding to 32, an additional 2 ET teams are in Canada, thus making 24 teams in Eastern North America), and the Mountain/Pacific portion (as well as Alaska, Hawaii, and Pacific territories) is the Western United States (which has 8 MLB teams).

Thus, 5 states, based on being divided between the Central and Mountain Time Zones, would be divided between the Eastern US and Western US - North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas.
 

Fatass

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I honestly don’t care enough to follow any sport other than hockey. So for the NHL I’d say there will be 32 teams in 2030. I’d add though, that some teams will be in different cities than they are now.
 

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