How many points would Wayne Gretzky and/or Mario Lemieux score in today's NHL?

daver

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It would be great if something other than league scoring levels was accepted as the metric in which to compare players from different eras and in attempts to figure out how players from other eras would do in other eras. Adjusting for league scoring levels is flawed.

Does anyone have any issues with calculating the PPG for the top 20 scorers each year and using that as a base in which to translate seasons from one era to another? Excluding Wayne and Mario's PPG's from these calculations seems to make sense.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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It would be great if something other than league scoring levels was accepted as the metric in which to compare players from different eras and in attempts to figure out how players from other eras would do in other eras.

Adjusting for league scoring levels is flawed.

Personally, I think your method of looking at the average of the 2nd -10th best scorers (or 3rd - 10th best if #2 is an outlier) works pretty for post-expansion seasons.
 

Hardyvan123

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If by today it means last season and this season it's a range, the top end would be 120ish points for either guy and for different reasons.

Of course one can write anything and I have even seen people trying to say that they would score more but all of the "evidence" or data that we know tells us that anything more than 120 would be highly improbable to say the least.

People seem to forget that both wayne and Mario ahd alot of "piling on points" in blow outs that simply don't occur as frequently at any level of highly organized hockey any more.

the word organized is intentional as teams, coaches, goalies and systems are organized at minimizing the other tam from scoring.
 

VanIslander

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Gretzky would score more assists than anyone has points (assuming Mario isn't reincarnated at the same time).

Gretz would make Joel Ward a 40-goal scorer and Kessel a 100+ point producer. He'd get Marleau into the HHOF if they played together (Patty's soft hands by the net and gretz's ability to deliver the puck at the exact time, especially from his office).

Gretz would make the Coyotes a playoff team (as long as he didn't coach ha ha) and the Capitals Stanley Cup champions.

Imagine Erik Karlsson's numbers if he had a Gretzky to skate with?:amazed: (we're talking Coffey and Orr type offensive numbers production)
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I posted this in a main board thread recently:

IMO, Gretzky's best regular season was 1981-82 when he scored 212 points (including 92 goals). He scored 215 points in 1985-86, but he had a lot more help on his team by them. IN 1981-82, his teammates hadn't yet matured: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/1982.html

In 1981-82, Gretzy scored 2.65 PPG, which was 70% better than the average PPG of the next 9 scorers (1.56).

Last year the PPG of the Top Ten Scorers was 1.01, 70% better would be about 141 points.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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The best teams shooting % last year was 10.4 and 10.5, in the NHL in 81-82 it was 15.5 range.

Gretzky would probably need guys having career years shooting % wise to have that 141 point season.

Why wouldn't shooting percentage already be factored into the decline in the numbers of the top scorers?
 

Hardyvan123

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Why wouldn't shooting percentage already be factored into the decline in the numbers of the top scorers?

It probably is, in the adjusted stats, I'm not sure but Wayne would be relying a lot on assists and sure at his peak he would have more assists than great play makers like Thorton and Sedin but would he get close to the 100 needed to get to 141 points?

Or do people think that he would be a 60 goal, 80 assist guy lat season?

the top scoring team last year was TB and they scored 262 goals.

141 points would be 53.8% of those 262 goals.

Wayne scored on 50.1% of those Edmonton goals in 81-82

I guess in an absolute perfect world where he was allowed to only play offense and his teams would try to run up scores but knowing how much Wayne loved to win, I'm not sure he would put personal stats over his team.

There just seem to be too many variables that would go against his hitting that goal.

But if anyone could do it in a perfect season it would be Wayne not Mario IMO.
 

LeBlondeDemon10

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It probably is, in the adjusted stats, I'm not sure but Wayne would be relying a lot on assists and sure at his peak he would have more assists than great play makers like Thorton and Sedin but would he get close to the 100 needed to get to 141 points?

Or do people think that he would be a 60 goal, 80 assist guy lat season?

the top scoring team last year was TB and they scored 262 goals.

141 points would be 53.8% of those 262 goals.

Wayne scored on 50.1% of those Edmonton goals in 81-82

I guess in an absolute perfect world where he was allowed to only play offense and his teams would try to run up scores but knowing how much Wayne loved to win, I'm not sure he would put personal stats over his team.

There just seem to be too many variables that would go against his hitting that goal.

But if anyone could do it in a perfect season it would be Wayne not Mario IMO.

I think you are too readily dismissing the fact that 99 created that offense; he was not a product of his team or a league wide trend. And his offense was his defense - puck possession. I don't see why a prime 66 couldn't do the same thing. As noted in another thread, at 35 years old, 66 was still outperforming most of the elite scorers in the NHL.
 

Copmuter*

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I've said in the past I'm not sure Gretzky would be a perennial 50 goal scorer if he played today

His strength would be playmaking... so maybe a rich man's Joe Thornton

40 goals/99 assists seems about right - depending on his linemates


I think Lemieux would be a rich man's Ovechkin/Malkin hybrid

So 66 goals/80 assists -- depending on who his linemates were
 

BraveCanadian

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I've said in the past I'm not sure Gretzky would be a perennial 50 goal scorer if he played today

His strength would be playmaking... so maybe a rich man's Joe Thornton

40 goals/99 assists seems about right - depending on his linemates

Oy vey.. the John D. Rockefeller version of Joe Thornton maybe.


I think Lemieux would be a rich man's Ovechkin/Malkin hybrid

So 66 goals/80 assists -- depending on who his linemates were

Yeah, it makes sense that Lemieux's playmaking wouldn't drop off by as much as Gretzky's.... except it doesn't.
 

Topgoon

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Personally, I think your method of looking at the average of the 2nd -10th best scorers (or 3rd - 10th best if #2 is an outlier) works pretty for post-expansion seasons.

I actually ran the math for this a while back - took Gretzky's margin of victory over 2-10 players and applied it to all post-lockout years: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=105664913&highlight=#post105664913

Conclusion - "Peak" Gretzky margins of victory will net you 185 highest (05-06), 142 lowest (14-15)

Reposting from here, minor edits for context
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/sh...#post102392729

Repost:

This is a test of Gretzky's margin of victory over players 2 to 10 (basically top 10 players). Then, we apply it to the top 2-10 players every year since the lock-up.
The reason I looked into this is, is that this methodology takes away from "freak years" where the #2 person in the league does exceptionally well, thus skewing your base number.


Gretzky's "Peak" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1986-87): 79.8%
The average top 2-10 point totals that year is 101.8

Gretzky's "Prime" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1982-87): 78.3%
The average top 2-10 point totals for those years are 113

So if we apply that same margin of victory against the top 2-10s since the lockout. Reversed Order:

2014/2015 = 142 Peak, 141 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 79
2013/2014 = 147 Peak, 146 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 82
2012/2013 (pro-rated) = 162 Peak, 162 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 91 (pro-rated)
2011/2012 = 152 Peak, 151 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 84
2010/2011 = 158 Peak, 157 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 88
2009/2010 = 172 Peak, 171 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 96
2008/2009 = 170 Peak, 169 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 95
2007/2008 = 170 Peak, 168 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 94
2006/2007 = 183 Peak, 182 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 102
2005/2006 = 185 Peak, 183 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 103

Source is hockey reference.

The reason why the math uses the average points of 2-10 is to make sure Gretzky isn't competing against himself.

Prime margin of victory is just the average of all his margins of victory from 82 to 87, all weighted equally. Probably not perfect math.

I think the person who made a point about ice time is legit though - that will have a factor into Gretzky's point totals.
 

Copmuter*

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Oy vey.. the John D. Rockefeller version of Joe Thornton maybe.




Yeah, it makes sense that Lemieux's playmaking wouldn't drop off by as much as Gretzky's.... except it doesn't.

Why don't you offer up your own opinion on the topic instead of criticizing mine?
 

bobholly39

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Both Mario and Gretzky would easily top 2 points a game, maybe more. Maybe not as high as 200, but closer to that than to 120.

I don't think Gretzky would score 92 goals. No way. But he wouldn't have to. He could still approach his assist total (maybe not 163, but definitely 100+).

Lemieux could score a lot. 92? I dunno, doubt it. I could see him do 80 in a perfect season, maintain a GPG average.

I think rather than trying to calculate how much 99 and 66 would score in comparison to Benn's 87 points last year - we need to take into context that having a peak Lemieux and Gretzky in the NHL would 100% have accounted for higher scoring last year.

Does Lemieux play with Crosby, and Malkin in Pittsburgh? If so, 100% they both top Benn's 87 points last year, likely by quite a bit.

Where does Gretzky play, and with who? If he plays with Hall in Edmonton, he would make Hall a 50-60 goal scorer. Can Gretzky go to to Washington and play with Ovechkin? Maybe Ovy tops a goal per game.
 

Copmuter*

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130 max for Lemieux, Gretzky would not be as good as Crosby today.

Prime Gretzky using early 80's skates and a wooden Titan in today's NHL probably isn't as good as what we've seen out of Crosby at his best

If Prime Gretzky had been the beneficiary of today's training methods and better equipment... then it's anybody's guess
 

authentic

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Lmao thanks for the laugh.

IMO Grezt would be a lock for 160, with 170-180 being his "today version" of his 200 point years.

So you believe the NHL of today is easier to dominate than the NHL of the 80's? Because a 174 point season today would literally be double what the highest scorer got last year, Gretzky never even had close to that type of dominance in the 80's so why on earth would he today? Best case scenario is Gretzky would score 130, and that's only if you believe he would be as good relative to today's players as he was to the players of the 80's, which I really don't think he would be for a number of reasons.
 

authentic

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Prime Gretzky using early 80's skates and a wooden Titan in today's NHL probably isn't as good as what we've seen out of Crosby at his best

If Prime Gretzky had been the beneficiary of today's training methods and better equipment... then it's anybody's guess

That's a massive understatement. Make no mistake about it, if we took Gretzky from his prime in the 80's exactly as he was with the same equipment, he wouldn't even crack an NHL roster. That's not just my opinion, it's the truth.

If he grew up with today's advantages he could have been anywhere from a mediocre 2nd line center to a 130 point player, no one knows for sure.
 

BenchBrawl

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Lemieux would benefit a lot from Powerplay opportunities he would create due to hooking.

I see something like:

GP-G-A-PTS

Lemieux: 70-65-90-155
Gretzky: 80-60-120-180

Their mere presence might boost the couple of next best guys simply by example of what is possible.I always had the impression that a very good scorer act as some sort of leader for the rest of the pack to show what is possible which boost some of the next best ones.Might be wrong on that.
 
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BenchBrawl

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I posted this in a main board thread recently:

As of now I still consider last year as an outlier.It was a lame season, I expect offense to get better.Hopefully I'm right for everyone's sake.

I would also expect Gretzky and Lemieux coming back in their prime to change the dynamic of the whole league one way or another.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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I actually ran the math for this a while back - took Gretzky's margin of victory over 2-10 players and applied it to all post-lockout years: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=105664913&highlight=#post105664913

Conclusion - "Peak" Gretzky margins of victory will net you 185 highest (05-06), 142 lowest (14-15)

Reposting from here, minor edits for context
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/sh...#post102392729

Repost:

This is a test of Gretzky's margin of victory over players 2 to 10 (basically top 10 players). Then, we apply it to the top 2-10 players every year since the lock-up.
The reason I looked into this is, is that this methodology takes away from "freak years" where the #2 person in the league does exceptionally well, thus skewing your base number.


Gretzky's "Peak" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1986-87): 79.8%
The average top 2-10 point totals that year is 101.8

Gretzky's "Prime" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1982-87): 78.3%
The average top 2-10 point totals for those years are 113

So if we apply that same margin of victory against the top 2-10s since the lockout. Reversed Order:

2014/2015 = 142 Peak, 141 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 79
2013/2014 = 147 Peak, 146 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 82
2012/2013 (pro-rated) = 162 Peak, 162 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 91 (pro-rated)
2011/2012 = 152 Peak, 151 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 84
2010/2011 = 158 Peak, 157 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 88
2009/2010 = 172 Peak, 171 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 96
2008/2009 = 170 Peak, 169 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 95
2007/2008 = 170 Peak, 168 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 94
2006/2007 = 183 Peak, 182 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 102
2005/2006 = 185 Peak, 183 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 103

Source is hockey reference.

The reason why the math uses the average points of 2-10 is to make sure Gretzky isn't competing against himself.

Prime margin of victory is just the average of all his margins of victory from 82 to 87, all weighted equally. Probably not perfect math.

I think the person who made a point about ice time is legit though - that will have a factor into Gretzky's point totals.

Thanks. It's basically a more advanced version of Vs2. The only thing I would change is to is remove statistical outliers from the comparison - perhaps guys who scored 10% or more than the pack like VsX does. That would include players like Gretzky/Lemieux/Nicholls in 1989 and Jagr in 1996 and 2006.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

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Lemieux would benefit a lot from Powerplay opportunities he would create due to hooking.

I see something like:

GP-G-A-PTS

Lemieux: 70-65-90-155
Gretzky: 80-60-120-180

In my opinion, their mere presence would boost the couple of next best guys simply by example of what is possible.I always had the impression that a very good scorer act as some sort of leader for the rest of the pack to show what is possible which boost some of the next best ones.Might be wrong on that.

I just don't see 180 points as realistic in today's NHL, where the next best scorer would have only 87 points. Gretzky never actually doubled second place or even came that close - the closest he came was 183-108 in 1987:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1537825

As of now I still consider last year as an outlier.It was a lame season, I expect offense to get better.Hopefully I'm right for everyone's sake.

I would also expect Gretzky and Lemieux coming back in their prime to change the dynamic of the whole league one way or another.

Other than Crosby's major outlier performance in 2013-14, 2014-15 was almost exactly the same at the top. The 2014-15 Art Ross winner actually scored the exact same number of points as the 2013-14 runner up (87).

One way that last year was an outlier - historically low number of power plays. I believe there were fewer PPs in 2014-15 per team than since the Original 6 era. Though that's just an extension of a several year trend.
 

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