I don't know how folks get to an expectation of 80 pts. It seems like people are just mentally subtracting two or three elite players from last years point total. Duchene obviously didn't do much for our point total, and Bobrovsky wasn't any better than league average last year. Panarin was outstanding but like you said that's one player and this isn't basketball. In comparison to last year: I wrote earlier that I wouldn't be surprised by a .906 team sv% next year, although I frankly have no idea what to expect from these goalies. It's more that you have to be pretty darn bad to get numbers much lower than that. Our team save percentage was in that neighborhood last year so I'm not shaving wins off of last year's total on account of Bob. The loss of Panarin I think will costs us a lot of goals. Something like 25 goals for, a goal contribution that only few players in the league are worth. Using the same math I have in the post above, that works out to about 8 points in the standings. Throw in another couple points off for a weaker possession game in Panarin's absence which will lead to more shots against. There's also plenty of room for improvement too. Last year was a disaster in some ways. I don't think the team was ever the sum of it's parts, but I don't know how to account for that and I can let that go. The PP and the changing age of players though are both things that have quantifiable effects. Unless you've got an extreme dearth of talent you wouldn't ever go into a season expecting a PP to hit at 15%, which we just did. Simple regression to the mean would give us another 11 goals there (.05*221 opportunities). You might say that's too optimistic but the PP was much better than that in the playoffs, I wouldn't have strong expectations for it good or bad. Maturation of players should account for another big boost. Some of the most important players on the roster are still in their raw stages, it would do wonders for the team if Dubois and Werenski simply follow the average growth trajectory. The team as a whole is moving upward on the age-performance curve. I don't want to gin up the math to figure out what that would be worth right now, to do it right you'd have to plug in the ages and past production for every player and then multiply by their movement on the curve, too much hassle for a Saturday.