How many points will Sam Bennett score next year?

[Aceboogie]

No. Think he'll do better without anchor wingers. I don't have it on me but someone had a sheet of advanced statistics that would suggest Bennett was very unlucky last year.

His PDO was 97 which is lower for top 6 players, as well as a 6.6% on ice shooting%. But certain players, mainly depth players, have PDOs under 100 with routine. For example, after his 48 game rookie season Yakupov has had a PDO under 100 every year (95,96,97,99) and on ice shooting % around 7% (7.5, 5.7, 6.9, 8.3). You can do this for any number of depth players

His individual shooting % was still 10.7% so above average.

Id say he might be a slight bit unlucky, but could just as well as wind up as depth player with lower PDO and on ice shooting % because less skilled. Even if he bounces back to 100 PDO and 8% On ice shooting%, because of how little he generates shot wise and play wise, the uptick in points would still only be ~5 points

I know people will bring up that Brouwer "brought down" Bennett, which is true. But to the same degree, Bennett brought down his most common linemate Chiasson. In every single category (CF%, FF% , SF%, GF% SCF%). Chiasson does better without Bennett than with, and Bennett does worse without than with. That should set off deafening alarm bells

 

[DJJones]

His PDO was 97 which is lower for top 6 players, as well as a 6.6% on ice shooting%. But certain players, mainly depth players, have PDOs under 100 with routine. For example, after his 48 game rookie season Yakupov has had a PDO under 100 every year (95,96,97,99) and on ice shooting % around 7% (7.5, 5.7, 6.9, 8.3). You can do this for any number of depth players

His individual shooting % was still 10.7% so above average.

Id say he might be a slight bit unlucky, but could just as well as wind up as depth player with lower PDO and on ice shooting % because less skilled. Even if he bounces back to 100 PDO and 8% On ice shooting%, because of how little he generates shot wise and play wise, the uptick in points would still only be ~5 points

I know people will bring up that Brouwer "brought down" Bennett, which is true. But to the same degree, Bennett brought down his most common linemate Chiasson. In every single category (CF%, FF% , SF%, GF% SCF%). Chiasson does better without Bennett than with, and Bennett does worse without than with. That should set off deafening alarm bells

Ya because Chiasson played with Gaudreau and Monahan and also never played with Brouwer.

I don't even know what website to use anymore to check though. Hathaway - Stajan - Chiasson also had like ten games where they were really good. Can't really explain how that worked haha.

 

[HighLifeMan]

His PDO was 97 which is lower for top 6 players, as well as a 6.6% on ice shooting%. But certain players, mainly depth players, have PDOs under 100 with routine. For example, after his 48 game rookie season Yakupov has had a PDO under 100 every year (95,96,97,99) and on ice shooting % around 7% (7.5, 5.7, 6.9, 8.3). You can do this for any number of depth players

His individual shooting % was still 10.7% so above average.

Id say he might be a slight bit unlucky, but could just as well as wind up as depth player with lower PDO and on ice shooting % because less skilled. Even if he bounces back to 100 PDO and 8% On ice shooting%, because of how little he generates shot wise and play wise, the uptick in points would still only be ~5 points

I know people will bring up that Brouwer "brought down" Bennett, which is true. But to the same degree, Bennett brought down his most common linemate Chiasson. In every single category (CF%, FF% , SF%, GF% SCF%). Chiasson does better without Bennett than with, and Bennett does worse without than with. That should set off deafening alarm bells

Maybe that's due to the fact the Chiasson played roughly 40% of his even strength time this past season next to Johhny Gaudreau..

 

[Skobel24]

35-45 depending on ice time and line mates.

 

[Aceboogie]

Ya because Chiasson played with Gaudreau and Monahan and also never played with Brouwer.

I don't even know what website to use anymore to check though. Hathaway - Stajan - Chiasson also had like ten games where they were really good. Can't really explain how that worked haha.

Chiasson does play significant time with Gaudreau and Brodie but he never really drags any of their #s down much at all (even does better without Monahan). Also not to mention that vs other top line opposition

Here is a chart of how players do with and without Bennett

Now you typically want the red boxes to be left and down of the grey boxes. But youll see for a majority of the red boxes are to the right and up, aka they are doing better without him. Id say the alarming thing is that Bennett plays 3rd line minutes, so when a player is not playing with him, they are likely in the top 6 vs tougher comp.

Bennetts underlying numbers are not ghastly bad or anything (like say, Ristolainens are). But they do not scream a break out player "forced" into lower minutes. His 3rd line minutes appear justified based on his production and underlying numbers. As for his "luck" stats, they are below average and for top 6 skill players that typically results in a bounce back in upcoming years that results in more points. But this is not a given for Bennett, as numerous players have below average luck stats year over year. Next year well which group hell slot into. Not a forsure thing he bounces back and gets additional points, but not a forsure thing he doesnt either

 

[Aceboogie]

Maybe that's due to the fact the Chiasson played roughly 40% of his even strength time this past season next to Johhny Gaudreau..

Chiasson goes from 3rd line minutes/competition with 3rd line linemates to 1st line minutes/competition with 1st line linemates. Quality of teammate increases, but so does Quality of competition, by nearly an identical amount

 

[garyturner3]

I think he gets around 40. But seriously what do you expect of a 3rd line center on a team with poor W depth that doesn't play on the PP?

I was very high on Bennett, but what I would expect by now is that a guy that was drafted 4th overall and going into his draft+5 season to be able to pass Mikael freaking Backlund in the depth chart and be earning top 6 minutes and piles of PP time. It's not like he's buried behind PIT quality center depth so that excuse doesn't really fly. Eventually it's on the player to give the coach no choice.

 

[Skobel24]

I was very high on Bennett, but what I would expect by now is that a guy that was drafted 4th overall and going into his draft+5 season to be able to pass Mikael freaking Backlund in the depth chart and be earning top 6 minutes and piles of PP time. It's not like he's buried behind PIT quality center depth so that excuse doesn't really fly. Eventually it's on the player to give the coach no choice.

The fact that you threw 'freaking' in between his name really makes me question this comment. Backlund is a damn good two-way 50 point center. He was 4th in Selke votes. I wouldn't expect Bennett to pass him yet.

 

[DJJones]

Chiasson does play significant time with Gaudreau and Brodie but he never really drags any of their #s down much at all (even does better without Monahan). Also not to mention that vs other top line opposition

Here is a chart of how players do with and without Bennett

Now you typically want the red boxes to be left and down of the grey boxes. But youll see for a majority of the red boxes are to the right and up, aka they are doing better without him. Id say the alarming thing is that Bennett plays 3rd line minutes, so when a player is not playing with him, they are likely in the top 6 vs tougher comp.

Bennetts underlying numbers are not ghastly bad or anything (like say, Ristolainens are). But they do not scream a break out player "forced" into lower minutes. His 3rd line minutes appear justified based on his production and underlying numbers. As for his "luck" stats, they are below average and for top 6 skill players that typically results in a bounce back in upcoming years that results in more points. But this is not a given for Bennett, as numerous players have below average luck stats year over year. Next year well which group hell slot into. Not a forsure thing he bounces back and gets additional points, but not a forsure thing he doesnt either

Tougher competition doesn't mean anything compared to playing with massively better teammates. Chiasson did pretty well with Gaudreau and Monahan, he just had absolutely zero finish but his chances were there. And obviously comparing anyone to Backlunds line isn't going to go well for them.

The biggest story told in that chart is 93 without 36 and how well Bennett did when he wasn't playing with the third pairing.

 

[DJJones]

The fact that you threw 'freaking' in between his name really makes me question this comment. Backlund is a damn good two-way 50 point center. He was 4th in Selke votes. I wouldn't expect Bennett to pass him yet.

No kidding, Backlund was better than Monahan this year.

 

[HighLifeMan]

I was very high on Bennett, but what I would expect by now is that a guy that was drafted 4th overall and going into his draft+5 season to be able to pass Mikael freaking Backlund in the depth chart and be earning top 6 minutes and piles of PP time. It's not like he's buried behind PIT quality center depth so that excuse doesn't really fly. Eventually it's on the player to give the coach no choice.

1. It will be his draft +4 year. Not 5.
2. He missed essentially the entirety of his draft+1 season due to injury/surgery. That should be taken into account.
3. Mikael Backlund is an an elite 2C at this point in his career.

 

[Aceboogie]

Tougher competition doesn't mean anything compared to playing with massively better teammates. Chiasson did pretty well with Gaudreau and Monahan, he just had absolutely zero finish but his chances were there. And obviously comparing anyone to Backlunds line isn't going to go well for them.

The biggest story told in that chart is 93 without 36 and how well Bennett did when he wasn't playing with the third pairing.

You dont think jumping from playing Letestu would be tougher than playing McDavid/Getzlaf/Kane etc?

Id say there is a couple interesting players to note other than just Brouwer. Chiasson is one, the other would be Hamilton, who was 3% better without and bennett was 8% worse without, ditto for Giordano. His Wowys are a bit of a mixed bag, but to say he was poor simply and only because of Brouwer is misleading.

 

[A4T1L6]

career high of 37 points

 

[DJJones]

You dont think jumping from playing Letestu would be tougher than playing McDavid/Getzlaf/Kane etc?

Id say there is a couple interesting players to note other than just Brouwer. Chiasson is one, the other would be Hamilton, who was 3% better without and bennett was 8% worse without, ditto for Giordano. His Wowys are a bit of a mixed bag, but to say he was poor simply and only because of Brouwer is misleading.

None of those players were playing against McDavid either. Gaudreau is pretty protected, as he should be when you have Backlund.

And no one is saying he had a good year. The third line was a black hole for well over half the season. Young center playing with a PP specialist and whatever the hell Brouwer was. Add in a terrible 2nd(until Stone anyway) and 3rd pairing and there you go.

Monahan in that spot would have scored more goals just because he's a stud but the possession numbers would have been just as bad. Last twenty games + playoffs were infinitely better for Bennett.

Keep Brouwer away from him, give him a top 6 winger to work with, upgrade both defensive pairings and Bennett will look a lot better even if he doesn't improve whatsoever. Looks like he gained 10-15 pounds and the coach seems to love the kid. Can't say I'm too worried. Tkachuk - Bennett - Ferland by the end of the year will be a pain in the ass to play against.

 

[Volica]

Big step up.
45 or so points.

Love what we saw in the playoffs when he didn't have the Brouwer anchor tied to him. Will be his second full season as centre for Calgary. According to team officials, the guy's been putting in the work this offseason in preparation for this year big, big time.

I think the guy has a Ryan Johansen type ceiling, and he's more than capable of hitting it. Speed, skill, grit and IQ. Give him some line-mates, that'll help him, some PP time and watch the kid put up 45+.

Lots to love about him, considering this will be only his third full season after missing an entire year with an injury; really not worried about his low production last year.

 

[McFlyingV]

Big step up.
45 or so points.

Love what we saw in the playoffs when he didn't have the Brouwer anchor tied to him. Will be his second full season as centre for Calgary. According to team officials, the guy's been putting in the work this offseason in preparation for this year big, big time.

I think the guy has a Ryan Johansen type ceiling, and he's more than capable of hitting it. Speed, skill, grit and IQ. Give him some line-mates, that'll help him, some PP time and watch the kid put up 45+.

Lots to love about him, considering this will be only his third full season after missing an entire year with an injury; really not worried about his low production last year.

So like pretty much every other player in the league?

 

[ijuka]

37 if he has a great season. He's just not all that good.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

41 points. 19 goals 22 assists.

 

[lawrence]

17 goals 17 assists.

 

[Curufinwe]

Is he going to get a bigger role on the PP?

 

[Aceboogie]

Big step up.
45 or so points.

Love what we saw in the playoffs when he didn't have the Brouwer anchor tied to him. Will be his second full season as centre for Calgary. According to team officials, the guy's been putting in the work this offseason in preparation for this year big, big time.

I think the guy has a Ryan Johansen type ceiling, and he's more than capable of hitting it. Speed, skill, grit and IQ. Give him some line-mates, that'll help him, some PP time and watch the kid put up 45+.

Lots to love about him, considering this will be only his third full season after missing an entire year with an injury; really not worried about his low production last year.

Was he not putting in work the last offseason? Also Bennett played 77 games in 15/16- thats a full season. I guess if 82 is the benchmark for a full season, hes still a completely raw rookie being that he only played 81 games this past year

Not saying he cant become RyJo, but RyJo put up 33 goals, 63 point in his 3rd year. So putting up 45 points in his 3rd season with PP time would still be a notch below RyJo. Who will forever be held as the candle for struggling sophmores. hell even Kadri, whom is a more reasonable comparison, scored 44 point in 48 games in his 3rd NHL season.

45/50 points in a 3rd NHL season is solid but youd basically be able to completely cross top line potential off the list, even good 2nd line player would be in jeopardy.

 

[DJJones]

Oh you mean that Kadri shooting 17% between Kessel and JVR led to a massive increase in production from his normal average?

And when his partners skill dried up his points decreased. Very interesting.

Almost like there's some correlation between linemates, TOI, and points. If Bennett was on the 2011/2012 Flames team he'd double his point production but he wouldn't be any better.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Total points is tough to say considering his power play production is kind of blocked by Monahan / Backlund. He should play PP2 ahead of Frolik but even there Gulutzan likss to be able to play Bennett at center the shift right after the PP ends.

If Bennett scores between 30 and 35 points at 5 on 5 I will be satisfied. The total points might not hit 50+ because of PP ice time but this is exceptional 5 on 5 performance. For comparision Backlund had a heck of a year and only hit 27 points at 5 on 5 last year.

 

[Volica]

So like pretty much every other player in the league?

Calgary brass singled out him, Tkachuk and Lazar. So, no, not like every other player in the league.
Also singled out by the coach as the player he expects to elevate to the next level.

 

[Volica]

Was he not putting in work the last offseason? Also Bennett played 77 games in 15/16- thats a full season. I guess if 82 is the benchmark for a full season, hes still a completely raw rookie being that he only played 81 games this past year

Not saying he cant become RyJo, but RyJo put up 33 goals, 63 point in his 3rd year. So putting up 45 points in his 3rd season with PP time would still be a notch below RyJo. Who will forever be held as the candle for struggling sophmores. hell even Kadri, whom is a more reasonable comparison, scored 44 point in 48 games in his 3rd NHL season.

45/50 points in a 3rd NHL season is solid but youd basically be able to completely cross top line potential off the list, even good 2nd line player would be in jeopardy.

What are you even talking about? Like, what's your point here exactly? Did you decide not to even read what I wrote?

Third year
Last I checked:
15/16 is year 1.
16/17 is year 2.
17/18 is year 3.

In 14/15 he missed more or less the entire season; that's a fairly important season for draft development.

Guys develop differently. Hell, Johansen was as big as Bennett is right now when he was drafted

The only people who worry about Bennett tend to be Oiler fans, which is golden. Flames fans know this kid has enough skill, IQ and talent to be a top 6 forward with top line potential still.