How Many Points Will Draisaitl Score This Year?

[Delicious Pancakes]

Simple Question: How many points will Draisaitl score this Year?
Poll closes in 5 days.

Last couple season point totals:
2018-19: 82GP - 50G - 55A - 105P - 1.28P/GP
2019-20: 70GP - 43G - 67A - 110P - 1.57P/GP
Play-ins: 4GP - 3G - 3A - 6P - 1.50P/GP

Some other questions to consider:
Will scoring go up with a shortened season, or will it decrease?
How will no fans affect regular season play?
How will playing only Canadian teams affect Draisaitl's numbers?
Who will Draisaitl's linemates be? DRY or DKY?
Will Draisaitl miss time due to Covid?
How much will Tipp load up with Drai and McDavid on the same line?
Can Draisaitl and Kahun reignite the Mannheim magic?
Can Draisaitl win the Rocket Richard Trophy?
Will Draisaitl have something to prove and outscore McDavid?
Biggest question is essentially: How hungry is Draisaitl feeling this year?

56GP x 1.10 = 62P
56GP x 1.20 = 67P
56GP x 1.30 = 73P
56GP x 1.40 = 78P
56GP x 1.50 = 84P
56GP x 1.60 = 90P (Last player to score above 1.60 was Sidney Crosby in 2010-11: 41GP - 1.61P/GP)
56GP x 1.70 = 95P (Last player to score above 1.70 was Mario Lemieux in 2000-01: 43GP - 1.77P/GP)
56GP x 1.80 = 101P (Last players to score above 1.80 were Mario and Jagr in '95-96: 2.30 P/GP and 1.82P/GP)

NHL Records

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[AsparaGus]

Draisaitl will score 37 goals and 53 assists for 90 points this year.

He will:
- Win the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart 2 years in a row so that the Hockey News, Sportsnet, and TSN can rank him below McKinnon, Crosby and Matthews on account of McDavid pumping up his point totals.
- He will also win the Conn Smythe Trophy and somehow the front page of TSN will be something about Matthew’s golf swing.
- He will donate a $5 million to COVID relief to Canadians and somehow Sportnet covers a fluff piece on Frederik Anderson’s cat. He will also not be in consideration for the NHL’s humanitarian trophy because Anderson has a cat. Anderson wins it for being “down-to-earth”.

 

[Aerchon]

Depends on health and linemates.

If on DRY line I would expect 35 goals 35 assists.

As is who knows but at worst I see him ppg.

I'm also fine if he didn't get even a ppg if his 5v5 two way play netted him in excess of +20 plus minus. That's much more valuable to the team.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I picked 70pts. His goal scoring clip and pts rates of recent seasons, I don't see them as sustainable with increasing marking and teams being very familiar with him this season, and playing the Oilers a lot.

Scoring leaders usually see fallback the next season, and playing only 6 other teams is going to make it so that you can't just school the teams every night. McD will find ways to get it done every night but Drai will struggle at times.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I picked 70pts. His goal scoring clip and pts rates of recent seasons, I don't see them as sustainable with increasing marking and teams being very familiar with him this season, and playing the Oilers a lot.

Scoring leaders usually see fallback the next season, and playing only 6 other teams is going to make it so that you can't just school the teams every night. McD will find ways to get it done every night but Drai will struggle at times.

You said this exact same thing after he had his first 100 point season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You said this exact same thing after he had his first 100 point season.

why would anybody expect him to defy odds every season? I'm not saying he won't have best seasons again, or in that range, I'm saying it'll be harder to do it this season because we're playing only 6 teams. you think teams are going to play us 10X and not learn anything?

Dialing back the past, the teams that were most familiar with the best Oilers team ever assembled knew more than anybody how to beat that team, and regularly enough gave that glory team its hardest games. Because they played them a lot. Thats the dynamic. Schemes will be better against the Oilers this season, because of how much each of the teams will be seeing them.

Conversely our schemes won't get better. Other clubs will adjust better than we do.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I picked 70pts. His goal scoring clip and pts rates of recent seasons, I don't see them as sustainable with increasing marking and teams being very familiar with him this season, and playing the Oilers a lot.

Scoring leaders usually see fallback the next season, and playing only 6 other teams is going to make it so that you can't just school the teams every night. McD will find ways to get it done every night but Drai will struggle at times.

You mean teams weren’t familiar with him last year after he just had a 50 goal 105 point season? That’s ridiculous

 

[Drivesaitl]

You mean teams weren’t familiar with him last year after he just had a 50 goal 105 point season? That’s ridiculous

The Oilers, and Drai had the vast majority of their success last season against US squads, most of whom they play very seldom. Thats where they put together their good record.

Teams don't develop specific schemes when they only play the opponent twice a season, they just roll those games out and hope for the best. The Oilers do their best in those encounters, clearly.

Against Canadian clubs last season the Oilers were only .500. All of Flames, Nucks, Jets gave us some trouble, and had better schemes against us than most clubs did. There is nothing weird in thinking that pattern just continues. This is a projection thread so its on topic to offer projections.

As I've stated the Oilers will be OK, probably 2nd or 3rd place, they will make playoffs. I don't think they will be blowing the doors off opponents all season. They will have huge games, they will be followed by games where the team is pretty shutdown.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The Oilers, and Drai had the vast majority of their success last season against US squads, most of whom they play very seldom. Thats where they put together their good record.

Teams don't develop specific schemes when they only play the opponent twice a season, they just roll those games out and hope for the best. The Oilers do their best in those encounters, clearly.

Against Canadian clubs last season the Oilers were only .500. All of Flames, Nucks, Jets gave us some trouble, and had better schemes against us than most clubs did. There is nothing weird in thinking that pattern just continues. This is a projection thread so its on topic to offer projections.

As I've stated the Oilers will be OK, probably 2nd or 3rd place, they will make playoffs. I don't think they will be blowing the doors off opponents all season. They will have huge games, they will be followed by games where the team is pretty shutdown.

Fair, either way, a 35/35 season is what I’m expecting also but with an improved attention to detail in his own zone. If he can become a force in both zones it’ll help the team much more

 

[Drivesaitl]

Fair, either way, a 35/35 season is what I’m expecting also but with an improved attention to detail in his own zone. If he can become a force in both zones it’ll help the team much more

Yeah I noticed you voted the same as me and wondering why you were arguing. heh

 

[nabob]

Went with 65 points. Which I would consider a very good season for him considering the compressed schedule and how he plays a ton. I think he’ll also be taking on more of a two way roll this year with how the roster is built.

 

[Del Preston]

216

 

[Tobias Kahun]

216

that would be disrespectful to gretzky.

 

[Del Preston]

that would be disrespectful to gretzky.

Sorry, Jim.

 

[Smartguy]

He had 89 in 56 last year, but as people recall he got off to a really hot start playing with Mcdavid. I think he’s going to suffer a bit because if Mcdavid/RNH click I think they will be the number 1 line, and I don’t think the PP keeps record pace. I voted for 80 but I think 75 is more realistic, which it’s still crazy to me to say as an Oiler fan that having a player 20 points over a ppg is realistic.

But people have been saying Draisaitl wouldn’t keep pace last year away from Mcdavid and he exceeded it, so hoping for the best.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

He had 89 in 56 last year, but as people recall he got off to a really hot start playing with Mcdavid. I think he’s going to suffer a bit because if Mcdavid/RNH click I think they will be the number 1 line, and I don’t think the PP keeps record pace. I voted for 80 but I think 75 is more realistic, which it’s still crazy to me to say as an Oiler fan that having a player 20 points over a ppg is realistic.

But people have been saying Draisaitl wouldn’t keep pace last year away from Mcdavid and he exceeded it, so hoping for the best.

McDavid/RNH haven't produced at the same rate as Draisaitl/RNH. That said, what if Draisaitl and Kahun click? Then you don't have to worry about RNH playing with McDavid affecting Draisaitl's line's production, you just have 2 productive 1st lines and good luck to the other teams trying to match up against the Oilers. I don't think the Oilers lines will remain static though, I think you'll see JP and Ennis get time in the top 6 at times too.

 

[McOvechking]

I think he will regress a bit. 65 points is a realistic expectation.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I think he will regress a bit. 65 points is a realistic expectation.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Draisaitl will only be limited by the number of games he plays.

 

[Canovin]

If RNH and Yamamoto can hit PPG and Kahun and Kassian/Pulju can manage at least .5PPG then it doesn't matter what #s McDavid and Drai put up

 

[jukon]

I think both McDavid and Drai will have lower point totals this year as a result of a bigger focus on defensive play.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I think both McDavid and Drai will have lower point totals this year as a result of a bigger focus on defensive play.

If their numbers decrease because of better defensive play and it results in better team play and more wins then you can't be upset about that.

 

[yababy]

The Oilers, and Drai had the vast majority of their success last season against US squads, most of whom they play very seldom. Thats where they put together their good record.

Teams don't develop specific schemes when they only play the opponent twice a season, they just roll those games out and hope for the best. The Oilers do their best in those encounters, clearly.

Against Canadian clubs last season the Oilers were only .500. All of Flames, Nucks, Jets gave us some trouble, and had better schemes against us than most clubs did. There is nothing weird in thinking that pattern just continues. This is a projection thread so its on topic to offer projections.

As I've stated the Oilers will be OK, probably 2nd or 3rd place, they will make playoffs. I don't think they will be blowing the doors off opponents all season. They will have huge games, they will be followed by games where the team is pretty shutdown.

23 points in 16 games vs Canadian teams last year

Draisaitl ppg will go way down, but that has more to go with the pp coming back en to earth.

about 50 pts

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

23 points in 16 games vs Canadian teams last year

Draisaitl ppg will go way down, but that has more to go with the pp coming back en to earth.

about 50 pts

Drai's even strength P/GP the last two years has been 0.93 and 0.94. His powerplay P/GP has been 0.35 and 0.63. Even if his powerplay production drops back to 2018-19 levels and his even strength production drops to 0.75 P/GP (say because of poor linemate production) his overall P/GP would still be 1.10 P/GP which would equate to 62 points. For comparison, 50 points would be on par with Draisaitl's 2017-18 production.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

23 points in 16 games vs Canadian teams last year

Draisaitl ppg will go way down, but that has more to go with the pp coming back en to earth.

about 50 pts

How far do you think our PP is going to fall down to earth? It has 2 hart winners and Nuge. Not to mention it added a significant threat from the point. I think it’s going to continue to be absolutely lethal.