How many cups will Tampa win in the next 3 years?

How many do you think?


  • Total voters
    283

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,543
5,171
Using this (end of pre-season favorite vs actual winners):
Futures Odds of NHL Champions


In the 2000s, except for the Senators (and their windows were cut exceptionally by the lock out) no team made multiple apparition in the top 2 favorites without winning the cup eventually, occurrence in the top 2:

Wings9
Penguins7
Hawks4
Avalanche4
Ducks2
Senators2
capitals2
Lightings1
Canucks1
Flyers1
Stars1
jets1
Oilers1
Bruins1
Rangers1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
It is logic has having won the cup recently seem being a major factor in who get the lowest odd line, it is true that the favorite very rarely win it in a 30, now 31 team league in a high luck sport like hockey, but

1) the winner was almost always either a top 5 favorite or was one the year just before (2019 Blues, 2012 Kings, 2006 Canes, 2004 Lightings being the exceptions).
2) Top team for a long window like Tampa seem to still have a good % of chance of winning at least one at some point no ?

The Favorite winning a cup a giving year is quite unlikely, if they can stay the favorite 3-4 season in a row I feel it get quite likely, i.e. a team good enough to have 20% to win the cup 4 year's in a row would have 60% chance of winning at least one.
 

bambamcam4ever

107 and counting
Feb 16, 2012
14,381
6,425
I voted for 1.

I could see them winning 2 or 3 Presidents Trophies. They're the best team in the NHL.

The playoffs is more of a crapshoot.
What you meant to say is you don't understand why certain teams lost. That doesn't make it luck.

TB lost consecutive games twice all last regular season, yet lost all 4 playoff games. The odds of that happening naturally are very low. It's almost as if the regular season is different than the playoffs.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
142,466
112,862
NYC
What you meant to say is you don't understand why certain teams lost. That doesn't make it luck.

TB lost consecutive games twice all last regular season, yet lost all 4 playoff games. The odds of that happening naturally are very low. It's almost as if the regular season is different than the playoffs.
Tampa had obvious weaknesses which I referred to way back in the regular season. I was one of the first people to say they weren't winning the Cup. I think their problems are fixable, though, and I don't buy into the notion that they're incapable of winning the Cup.

That said, you have your head in the sand if you don't think luck factors in over a (max) 28 game sample. You're also lying if you tell me you thought Tampa was getting swept.
 

CupsOverCash

Registered User
Jun 16, 2009
16,373
7,103
TB has a lot to prove with winning the cup but they are still good playoff team even though they got swept last year. Im not even touching the poll lol!
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
142,466
112,862
NYC
Using this (end of pre-season favorite vs actual winners):
Futures Odds of NHL Champions


In the 2000s, except for the Senators (and their windows were cut exceptionally by the lock out) no team made multiple apparition in the top 2 favorites without winning the cup eventually, occurrence in the top 2:

Wings9
Penguins7
Hawks4
Avalanche4
Ducks2
Senators2
capitals2
Lightings1
Canucks1
Flyers1
Stars1
jets1
Oilers1
Bruins1
Rangers1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
It is logic has having won the cup recently seem being a major factor in who get the lowest odd line, it is true that the favorite very rarely win it in a 30, now 31 team league in a high luck sport like hockey, but

1) the winner was almost always either a top 5 favorite or was one the year just before (2019 Blues, 2012 Kings, 2006 Canes, 2004 Lightings being the exceptions).
2) Top team for a long window like Tampa seem to still have a good % of chance of winning at least one at some point no ?

The Favorite winning a cup a giving year is quite unlikely, if they can stay the favorite 3-4 season in a row I feel it get quite likely, i.e. a team good enough to have 20% to win the cup 4 year's in a row would have 60% chance of winning at least one.
An apparition is a ghost lol
 

Krewe

Registered User
Mar 12, 2019
1,676
1,917
What you meant to say is you don't understand why certain teams lost. That doesn't make it luck.

TB lost consecutive games twice all last regular season, yet lost all 4 playoff games. The odds of that happening naturally are very low. It's almost as if the regular season is different than the playoffs.
Yes we have never had good/deep runs in the playoffs. Just get swept year after year
 

TheBeastCoast

Registered User
Mar 23, 2011
31,274
31,364
Dartmouth,NS
It seems that most hockey fans either call the Lightning a team of chokers or a dominant force to be reckoned with.

The truth lies somewhere in between, but I wouldn't want to stand in the way of hyperbole.
You were literally both last season. The truth kind of lies in both statements.
 

Five Alarm Fire

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jun 17, 2009
10,180
6,214
These losers aren't winning jack shit. The book is out on how to play them, Trotz exposed Cooper two years ago and I don't see anything changing given how this team is constructed.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
142,466
112,862
NYC
These losers aren't winning jack ****. The book is out on how to play them, Trotz exposed Cooper two years ago and I don't see anything changing given how this team is constructed.
You might need to change Cooper if this is really the case. Easier than changing the team.
 

JoVel

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 23, 2017
19,365
26,662
Six. Three Stanley Cups and more importantly, three Governor's Cups.
 
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Mike Liut

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 12, 2008
19,346
8,876
I dont think signing Maroon solves their problems. Their team will struggle in the playoffs against bigger, more physical teams.
 

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