How many career goals will Crosby end up with?

[Artorius Horus T]

577 currently. He is 36, but he is in shape of his life and pace for 48 goals
- so he is ticking 600 goal mark this season

Selänne played until 44
Recchi played until 42
Thornton played until 42
Chara played until 42
Marleau played until 41

21-22 season : pace for 37 goals
22-23 season : 33 goals
23-24 season : pace for 48 goals

Lets say.. he plays another 6 seasons,
keeps scoring like 28-35 goal seasons

He might end up with 800+ career goals... like seriously..
also... if keeps popping 75-85 point seasons... he'll might
end up with 2000+ career points...

He willy possibly hit 1600 point career mark this season
400 points divided for 6 seasons.. 66.6 points per season

For example Selänne scored

80 points (31 goals) at 41
almost 70 points (26 goals) at 42

And that was over 10 years ago, NHL is way way up in goals what then.
also, even though Teemu was in insane shape, Crosby could be at even better.

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

Let's say he has 23 more goals this year for an even 50, and an even 590 career goals by year end. Let's also say he finishes with 48 more points this season for an even 1600 career points by year end.

Both estimates might be slightly high, but at least it gives us an even number to play with at end of year:

He's signed for 1 more year after this, so if he retires after age 37, a plausible estimate mght be:

+ 85 points + 35 goals = 625 goals (tied 16th all time) and 1685 points (9th all time).

In my opinion - he'll re-sign for 2 more years after this, minimum.

So if he retires after age 39 - that's 3 more years after this one.

If he averages 30 goals a year + 80 points a year for those 3 years that's approx: 680 goals (13th all-time), and 1840 points (5th all-time).

Let's say he plays instead until age 42? Well - let's keep the above estimates for first 3 years, and add 3 more years, at a conservative average of ~20 goals ~65 points.

He would therefore finish at age 42 at ~740 goals (6th all-time, 1 goal behind Brett Hull and #5) and ~2035 points (2nd all-time, ~100+ points above Jagr at #3 with 1921 points).

Sidney Crosby is in absolutely fantastic shape, so I could see him be able to continue playing at a high level past age 40, unlike so many others where the wheels completely fall off. But also, some of the greats have chosen to retire while at the top of their game (see Gretzky or Roy), so it's also possible he chooses to go that route and retire earlier, so it's hard to say.

800 career goals? It's not impossible, but unlikely. 700+ seems more plausible if he plays long enough.
2000 points? That also seems doable if he plays long enough, but Jagr and his 1921 seems like a safer target.

 

[Mandar]

87 (see what I did there?)

 

[seventieslord]

I'm thinking 690

his goal scoring this year is a spike and should not be used to project forward. Still, he's been very consistently good as a goal scorer with not much dropping off. He has given hints he's not going to hang around forever, too. I could see him retiring after next year, but it's probably unlikely. I'm going with three more seasons, averaging 30. Something like 35+30+25 to go with the ~600 he'll have at the end of this season.

 

[DRW895]

Not best moment for debate. Right now he caught too much luck and it seems he gonna score top 10 level all time

 

[sr edler]

When he's surpassed Andreychuk, that's the final boss. Then he can retire happy to have achieved everything.

 

[The Panther]

I don't think I've even paid attention to how Crosby is doing in all-time scoring lists. So, let's see..

In points, he's currently 12th all time. He's 27 points behind Ray Bourque at 11th, and 38 behind Phil Esposito at 10th. No guarantee for catching Espo, but it's certainly a chance he'll catch him this season. Crosby could be 10th all time in scoring by the end of this season.

Sid is currently 21st in goals. He's 24 goals behind Jari Kurri at 20th, so he'll catch him and enter the top-20 either late this season or early next year.

Sid is 14th in assists, having recently passed Doug Gilmour. He's still 41 points behind Joe Sakic at 13th. Of note is that he's only 74 assists behind Gordie Howe's 1049, which was the all-time total until 1988.

So, 12th all time in points is pretty amazing, and as noted he'll likely be 10th by April (or certainly October) if he stays healthy. It'll be nice to see him reach the all-time top ten in scoring!

So... goals? It's bizarre that he's still behind Ciccarelli and Andreychuk, but it is what it is. Sid, I think, deserves credit for having settled into late-prime career years (and now, sort-of old age years) in good health with consistent production. It's really a question of how many more years he wants to play.

Has he commented on this at all...?

 

[MadLuke]

Has he commented on this at all...?

I feel like we can pretty much come-up with Sid player type comment on any situation ourself.

Oh did not look at that too much, focus on the next game, we need to fight for that playoff spot, what an honor to be among those guys you looked up too growing up, etc...

 

[Voight]

I'm thinking 690

his goal scoring this year is a spike and should not be used to project forward. Still, he's been very consistently good as a goal scorer with not much dropping off. He has given hints he's not going to hang around forever, too. I could see him retiring after next year, but it's probably unlikely. I'm going with three more seasons, averaging 30. Something like 35+30+25 to go with the ~600 he'll have at the end of this season.

I think he sticks around 2 years at most. It'll give him a chance to retire at the same time as Geno, and potentially play in the 2026 Olympics.

 

[wetcoast]

I'm thinking 690

his goal scoring this year is a spike and should not be used to project forward. Still, he's been very consistently good as a goal scorer with not much dropping off. He has given hints he's not going to hang around forever, too. I could see him retiring after next year, but it's probably unlikely. I'm going with three more seasons, averaging 30. Something like 35+30+25 to go with the ~600 he'll have at the end of this season.

My gut reaction to the thread title was 650 but it really depends on how long he wants to play and I don't see this current season level of goal scoring going forward either.

 

[Crosby2010]

As for points, he is looking at probably not being better than 9th all-time. I can see him passing Sakic at 1641 since he is only 89 behind him and by next year sometime he should be there, but 8th on the list is Mario at 1723 and that's 201 points for the rest of his career. With the Pens on the decline and maybe squeezing out a playoff showing this year I don't think it gets a lot better for them so he plays this year and maybe does two more. I like the idea of him hanging around for the 2026 Olympics, but that is if he makes the team by then. But 2026 sounds like a good number right now. He'd be 39 that summer. What would he have left in the tank or have left to prove? Nothing.

So does 640-650 goals and 1700 points sound sufficient?

650 goals puts him 15th all-time.

With assists he might end up 8th or 9th all-time in the Howe/Oates/Yzerman range.

Funny thing with Sid, because his career accomplishments match his year to year accomplishments. He led the NHL in goals twice and assists once. No kidding, just once. Then points twice. But yet he is right there in every category among the greats but on all three spots. For example Ovechkin is 65th all-time in assists. Crosby was just excellent all around in every offensive category but rarely the leader in any of them.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I've give up projecting how long players play/how quickly they decline.

The Sedins were fitness freaks. And retired at 37.

Who expected Jagr to return to the NHL after his KHL stint? He played over 400 games after his NHL return.

Who thought Selanne had 10 more seasons in him after how broken he looked in 2004?

12 months ago who thought Ovechkin would have 9 goals in 44 games? He was coming off a 50 goal season and in the midst of a 40 goal season.

Crosby could retire after this contract. Or he could play 5 more seasons. None of us have any idea, but it will absolutely impact where he ends up on all time cumulative lists.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

As for points, he is looking at probably not being better than 9th all-time. I can see him passing Sakic at 1641 since he is only 89 behind him and by next year sometime he should be there, but 8th on the list is Mario at 1723 and that's 201 points for the rest of his career. With the Pens on the decline and maybe squeezing out a playoff showing this year I don't think it gets a lot better for them so he plays this year and maybe does two more. I like the idea of him hanging around for the 2026 Olympics, but that is if he makes the team by then. But 2026 sounds like a good number right now. He'd be 39 that summer. What would he have left in the tank or have left to prove? Nothing.

So does 640-650 goals and 1700 points sound sufficient?

650 goals puts him 15th all-time.

With assists he might end up 8th or 9th all-time in the Howe/Oates/Yzerman range.

Funny thing with Sid, because his career accomplishments match his year to year accomplishments. He led the NHL in goals twice and assists once. No kidding, just once. Then points twice. But yet he is right there in every category among the greats but on all three spots. For example Ovechkin is 65th all-time in assists. Crosby was just excellent all around in every offensive category but rarely the leader in any of them.

Presumably without a concussion-suppressed prime one could conservatively assume Crosby has at least 1 more each of the Richard and Art Ross awards. And quite possibly 2, leaving him in the range of 3-4 total Richards, and 3-4 Art Rosses, and maybe 2-3 assist titles (let's call those Gretzkys ). That is an awfully dominant offensive prime across all 3 major categories. I don't think it's really fair to characterize Crosby as a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none offensive player when he was robbed of those peak offensive years that would have cemented his dominance (yet still played just enough to show us what likely would have happened).

Crosby is more like Gretzky than Ovechkin insofar as he was master of multiple offensive categories, rather than master of just one.

 

[Crosby2010]

Presumably without a concussion-suppressed prime one could conservatively assume Crosby has at least 1 more each of the Richard and Art Ross awards. And quite possibly 2, leaving him in the range of 3-4 total Richards, and 3-4 Art Rosses, and maybe 2-3 assist titles (let's call those Gretzkys ). That is an awfully dominant offensive prime across all 3 major categories. I don't think it's really fair to characterize Crosby as a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none offensive player when he was robbed of those peak offensive years that would have cemented his dominance (yet still played just enough to show us what likely would have happened).

Crosby is more like Gretzky than Ovechkin insofar as he was master of multiple offensive categories, rather than master of just one.

I agree, we were robbed of some full seasons from him. It is easy to forget this as it was so long ago. 2011 he is having a season for the ages, 2012 he still led the NHL in PPG, but only played 22 games. 2013 he is well on is way to winning the Art Ross and Hart before a puck hits him in the face. 2008 he crashed into the boards and was tied for the lead in points at the time. Yeah, lots of bad luck. Probably 3 extra Art Rosses to his credit anyway.

I mean more to the fact that he was so good at playmaking and goal scoring but rarely led the NHL in any of these categories because it almost seemed like a perfect balance.

 

[MadLuke]

I've give up projecting how long players play/how quickly they decline.

Just the 2003 draft is filled with who would have thought, who thought Pavelski would end up with the most points of that draft 10 years ago. We could have created a narrative that Getzlaf would age really well, big body, does not rely on explosive skating-shoot, going by with that high hockey iq-passing, was almost out by 35.

Pavelski 252 pts after turning 36..... and counting

Crosby is particularly not an easy one, seem in good shape, not too bothered by major nagging injuries and obviously quite passionated by the game and could go as long has player go, as the potential to be good enough to find a team that want him at the right price as a 15 minutes game third liner a la late Marleau-Thornton-Jagr would he want until he is 41 or something like that and retire summer of 2029.

And we can easily imagine retiring by the end of this current contract in 2025, more like a Gretzky/Patrice Bergeron, he will be old enough, won everything and will not be competing to be a Top 10 player anymore, how does one try to predict one, the other or in between.

 

[Neutrinos]

Funny thing with Sid, because his career accomplishments match his year to year accomplishments. He led the NHL in goals twice and assists once. No kidding, just once. Then points twice. But yet he is right there in every category among the greats but on all three spots. For example Ovechkin is 65th all-time in assists. Crosby was just excellent all around in every offensive category but rarely the leader in any of them.

He did lead the league in assists-per-game 3x

That doesn't count 2012 when he averaged 1.36 APG, but played in only 22 contests, so he failed to reach the minimum number of games played to qualify as league leader... Giroux lead with .84 APG

And there may be more seasons like that...

 

[Boxscore]

Sid will play until he's 40 and end up with 703 goals.

 

[Crosby2010]

Just the 2003 draft is filled with who would have thought, who thought Pavelski would end up with the most points of that draft 10 years ago. We could have created a narrative that Getzlaf would age really well, big body, does not rely on explosive skating-shoot, going by with that high hockey iq-passing, was almost out by 35.

Pavelski 252 pts after turning 36..... and counting

Crosby is particularly not an easy one, seem in good shape, not too bothered by major nagging injuries and obviously quite passionated by the game and could go as long has player go, as the potential to be good enough to find a team that want him at the right price as a 15 minutes game third liner a la late Marleau-Thornton-Jagr would he want until he is 41 or something like that and retire summer of 2029.

And we can easily imagine retiring by the end of this current contract in 2025, more like a Gretzky/Patrice Bergeron, he will be old enough, won everything and will not be competing to be a Top 10 player anymore, how does one try to predict one, the other or in between.

I really don't see Crosby as anything but a Penguin. It would look Apocolypse-like to see him with any other uniform on. My guess is he retires a Penguin and calls it a day when he does, but he'll want to do what Mario did especially I think. Or Yzerman or Bergeron, etc. Malkin I could see out of the two possibly playing his final year or two outside of Pittsburgh, but even then I have my doubts. There is something to be said for being a career Penguin (or for any franchise) and I would think Ovechkin falls into this category as well. It would just look bizarre and be a weird feeling seeing that with them. Remember Brodeur with the handful of games as a St. Louis Blue? A picture of him in another uniform burns the lens!

 

[Boxscore]

I really don't see Crosby as anything but a Penguin. It would look Apocolypse-like to see him with any other uniform on. My guess is he retires a Penguin and calls it a day when he does, but he'll want to do what Mario did especially I think. Or Yzerman or Bergeron, etc. Malkin I could see out of the two possibly playing his final year or two outside of Pittsburgh, but even then I have my doubts. There is something to be said for being a career Penguin (or for any franchise) and I would think Ovechkin falls into this category as well. It would just look bizarre and be a weird feeling seeing that with them. Remember Brodeur with the handful of games as a St. Louis Blue? A picture of him in another uniform burns the lens!

I agree. Crosby has accomplished everything a player could hope for. He will go down as an all-time great. Part of his remarkable legacy will be retiring as a career Penguin. He won't be "chasing a Cup" at 39.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Most of the long tenured players that left did so to chase a Cup (Bourque, Iginla, Sundin, Modano). Most that stayed already won (Sakic, Yzerman).

But Keith and Kane left. The Sedins never left.

I don't think Crosby or Ovechkin ever leave. But I also didn't think Iginla would leave.

 

[RR44]

I think he sticks around 2 years at most. It'll give him a chance to retire at the same time as Geno, and potentially play in the 2026 Olympics.

Agreed, it is a guarantee Crosby will want to be around for 2026!

 

[Staniowski]

Crosby can probably get to 2000 points if he really wants to. Does he want to play another 6 or 7 seasons?