How long until a goalie earns more than 10.5M per season (Price)?

[Dr Salt]

I can see John Gibson breaking that mark as the most scenario. Higher state/regional taxes and higher cost of living in the Greater Los Angeles area can contribute to that. He is also a great goalie, probably the best in the league.

 

[Dr Salt]

Vasilevskiy maybe

I think the lack of state taxes will have him ask for less money then otherwise.

 

[Mickey Marner]

2019
Bobrovsky (30)
2020
Holtby (30)
Murray (26)
Vasilevskiy (25)
2021
Andersen (31)

These are the only upcoming options. Age on July 1st of that off-season in parentheses. Decent odds the next goalie to top 10.5 isn't in the NHL yet.

 

[thadd]

When the cap is over 95M.

 

[danyhabsfan]

I can see John Gibson breaking that mark as the most scenario. Higher state/regional taxes and higher cost of living in the Greater Los Angeles area can contribute to that. He is also a great goalie, probably the best in the league.

Gibson will be UFA in 2027. He'll be 34.

I don't think he'll be that good at that age.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Vasilevskiy

 

[JoelWarlord]

Vasilevskiy is the only plausible option and absolutely "deserves" more than 10.5 in a straight up comparison with Price, but I'm skeptical given that we keep seeing guys take discounts to stay. Gibson is signed long term, and I think there's probably enough question marks around Bobrovsky, Murray, and Holtby to keep the number below 10. After that I can't really think of anyone else unless league revenues grow dramatically in the short term, in that case it's plausible someone like Andersen could get big money on a shorter term deal at 31.

We probably won't see a goalie above 10.5M for the next while, it'll likely be one of the next crop like Hart/Saros if they manage to hit contract years at the right times combined with continued growth in league revenue and salary cap.

 

[Dr Salt]

Gibson will be UFA in 2027. He'll be 34.

I don't think he'll be that good at that age.

Crap I forgot about his extension. Never mind then.

 

[Dr Salt]

Vasilevskiy is the only plausible option and absolutely "deserves" more than 10.5 in a straight up comparison with Price, but I'm skeptical given that we keep seeing guys take discounts to stay. Gibson is signed long term, and I think there's probably enough question marks around Bobrovsky, Murray, and Holtby to keep the number below 10. After that I can't really think of anyone else unless league revenues grow dramatically in the short term, in that case it's plausible someone like Andersen could get big money on a shorter term deal at 31.

We probably won't see a goalie above 10.5M for the next while, it'll likely be one of the next crop like Hart/Saros if they manage to hit contract years at the right times combined with continued growth in league revenue and salary cap.

Also lower state taxes can be a factor of him not hitting it. I think Hart will be the first guy I could see in the future taking it for now.

 

[Bleedred]

Depends on 1) when a team decides to build around a goalie next or 2) how fast inflation due to rising cap catches up to Price's salary cap range.

My guess is the latter happens first, and within 5 years. A few possibilities:

Bobrosvky @ 7.425m (UFA this year)
Holtby @ 6.1m (UFA 2020)
Vasilevskiy @3.5m (UFA 2020)
Andersen @ 5m (UFA 2021)
Rask @ 7.0m (UFA 2021)
Helleybuyck @ 6.2m (UFA 2024)
Jones @ 5.75m (UFA 2024)

Add John Gibson to this. I'd say his chances of it are decent.

Not sure why Jones is even a possibility. He's too average and dime a dozen. Rule out Jones completely here. There's a better chance Jones gets bought out before his current bullshit deal ends than getting $10 million a year. Maybe if Chiarelli is the Sharks GM by then, Jones will get nearly as much or more than Price is currently making, but if that happens, there's bigger problems with the Sharks than that. A mediocre to average at best goalie at 29 years old making that much money at age 34? No chance.

I don't see Bobrovsky getting Price money this year. Having a down year (by his standards) probably hurts him a bit. He may not even get much more in AAV than he is now if the term is very long.

Holtby is a possibility. Being pretty average his last two years might keep that from happening though.

Vasilevskiy is a real possibility

Rask's best days are behind him. Doubt he makes more per year on his next deal than he's making on this one. He'll be 34 years old when that contract starts.

I'd only say it's a possibility for Hellebuyck because it's 5 years away and salaries could be through the roof by then, but probably not.

 

[Regal]

If Doug Armstrong thought Jake Allen was worth 4.35, he has to think Binnington is worth 10, right?