How likely is Tampa to advance to 2nd round of playoffs?

[Silky mitts]

I saw a chart yesterday that gave Tampa a 62% chance of advancing, it seemed a bit low to me, going with 68% chance

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

Pittsburgh is by FAR the worst possible matchup for Tampa - or anyone - in round 1.

Considering what they did in the playoffs the last 3 years - especially in round 1 routs - I think Pittsburgh would be a very difficult matchup for absolutely anyone in round 1.

Beyond that? I'd say Tampa almost for sure wins.

So ill vote 71-75% based on that

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I don't get these kinds of questions. They are the best team in the league this year so they probably have the highest chance of doing what you're asking. It's impossible or futile to try and put a % on it. Shit happens and luck plays a factor too so even if they get knocked out in round 1 or 2, it wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

 

[Hint1k]

I saw a chart yesterday that gave Tampa a 62% chance of advancing, it seemed a bit low to me, going with 68% chance

Even 68% is too low.

1) 68% * 68% * 68% * 68% = 21% to win the cup.
If all the opponents are as easy as the 1st round opponent.
Which should not happen with the 1st seed.

2) 21% (your winning chance) < 25% (actual 1st seed winning stats)

Considering 1 and 2, it should be around 90%
For example: 87% * 77% * 67% * 56% = 25%

My answer is 87%

 

[bobholly39]

Even 68% is too low.

1) 68% * 68% * 68% * 68% = 21% to win the cup.
If all the opponents are as easy as the 1st round opponent.
Which should not happen with the 1st seed.

2) 21% (your winning chance) < 25% (actual 1st seed winning stats)

Considering 1 and 2, it should be around 90%
For example: 87% * 77% * 67% * 57% = 25%

My answer is 87%

87% until they play #87 and get 87'd?

 

[amnesiac]

>90%

 

[David Suzuki]

Depends who they play.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I voted 90%. They will demolish their 1st round matchup

 

[justafan22]

I voted 90%. They will demolish their 1st round matchup

Vasy could **** the bed round 1, and then where are we at?

 

[authentic]

I voted 81-85% but realistically it's probably a bit lower than that.

 

[JoVel]

Around 120%.

 

[kk87]

Any non PIT team: 85%
PIT: 60%

 

[Silky mitts]

Any non PIT team: 85%
PIT: 60%

If there’s like a 25-30% chance they play them that’d make it 75-80%

 

[Tkachuky]

99.9%.

I believe it’s more likely than a birth control pill not working.

 

[Silky mitts]

Even 68% is too low.

1) 68% * 68% * 68% * 68% = 21% to win the cup.
If all the opponents are as easy as the 1st round opponent.
Which should not happen with the 1st seed.

2) 21% (your winning chance) < 25% (actual 1st seed winning stats)

Considering 1 and 2, it should be around 90%
For example: 87% * 77% * 67% * 56% = 25%

My answer is 87%

Where did 25% come from? I don’t think those late 90s Red Wings teams were more than 20%, I give Tampa like 17-18% which is in line with 68% and what you are saying,

 

[Hint1k]

Where did 25% come from?

President' Trophy "curse". SC winning chance is 25%.

 

[Silky mitts]

President' Trophy "curse". SC winning chance is 25%.

Turns into 2/13 15.4% in cap era, I’m underselling 90s Detroit though

 

[SotasicA]

The first round is always the most exciting and upsets are frequent. It's almost a coin toss, I went with 56-60%.

If they survive the first round, then they'll be even bigger favourites moving on. Probably 65/35 each round.

 

[JoVel]

The first round is always the most exciting and upsets are frequent. It's almost a coin toss, I went with 56-60%.

If they survive the first round, then they'll be even bigger favourites moving on. Probably 65/35 each round.

Yeah, maybe upsets happen a lot in the first round but you're exaggerating it a lot. We definitely don't have higher chances to win against better teams.

 

[Paris in Flames]

Vasy could **** the bed round 1, and then where are we at?

Fiiiiine.

Vasi shits the bed and Tampa wins in 6 instead of 4.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

statistically speaking they have a 50 percent chance so i'll go with that.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

statistically speaking they have a 50 percent chance so i'll go with that.

There is a 100% chance that it is one of 2 outcomes, but that doesn't mean that they are each equally likely.

There's also a 100% chance that unicorns either do or do not get discovered today. Doesn't mean they've got a 50% chance of being found.

 

[snipes]

If they catch the Pens in round one it’s more likely than some here are willing to admit

 

[GoBuds14]

Pittsburgh would be a nightmare matchup if I was a lightning fan. Crosby/Malkin can absolutely win that series. Carolina and Columbus would worry me as well but would be a heavy underdog. Montreal doesn't have the skill to hang with Tampa for a full series, against most teams Habs could argue they have a goaltending advantage, but they wouldn't against Tampa.

 

[Kranix]

Looking at the list of presidents trophy winners, it seems like they either win the cup, or get shocked in round 1, not much in between.