Player Discussion How high AAV would you go for Krug?

Assuming a 6 year deal, how high AAV would you go for Krug?

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ON3M4N

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Another name I'd throw into the mix for a comp is Ryan Ellis. Now his issue has been injuries, but from a per 60 rate his offensive numbers are similar to Krug over the last 3 years at 5v5. Of course where Krug pulls away from him slightly (and just about everyone) is when you start factoring in his PP#'s. Of course this is where the discussion turns to, "could the PP still be effective without Krug?" which is a valid question. Now where Ellis is short on offense, he makes up for with a better defensive game and also logs over 23 minutes a night.

Ellis signed an 8yr extension in 2018 for $6.25 million per. Adjusting the for the CH% and the $81.5 million cap, that would put a similar deal fro Krug around 8yr/$6.5 million. Earlier in the thread I used Yandle as another comp and his adjusted hit would be a 7yr/$7 million deal. IMO that sweet spot for Krug is $6.5 to $7 million a season.

6yr/$6.5 million is where I'm at.
 
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Over the volcano

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Another name I'd throw into the mix for a comp is Ryan Ellis. Now his issue has been injuries, but from a per 60 rate his offensive numbers are similar to Krug over the last 3 years at 5v5. Of course where Krug pulls away from him slightly (and just about everyone) is when you start factoring in his PP#'s. Of course this is where the discussion turns to, "could the PP still be effective without Krug?" which is a valid question. Now where Ellis is short on offense, he makes up for with a better defensive game and also logs over 23 minutes a night.

Ellis signed an 8yr extension in 2018 for $6.25 million per. Adjusting the for the CH% and the $81.5 million cap, that would put a similar deal fro Krug around 8yr/$6.5 million. Earlier in the thread I used Yandle as another comp and his adjusted hit would be a 7yr/$7 million deal. IMO that sweet spot for Krug is $6.5 to $7 million a season.

6yr/$6.5 million is where I'm at.
Ellis is a great comp - and that deal he signed was a beauty for the team. Hope Sweeney can do the same with Krug.
 

ON3M4N

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Ellis is a great comp - and that deal he signed was a beauty for the team. Hope Sweeney can do the same with Krug.

I just wonder if Sweeney & Co. don't want to go 7-8 years on a deal. I mean 36/37 years old for a d-man is up there. While a few have been able to keep playing at that age (at a competitive level) it's not very common.
 
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loosemoose

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I just wonder if Sweeney & Co. don't want to go 7-8 years on a deal. I mean 36/37 years old for a d-man is up there. While a few have been able to keep playing at that age (at a competitive level) it's not very common.

By the time Krug's deal would be nearing its end Bergeron, Krejci, Rask and Marchand have all probably retired. At that point Bruins are looking at a re-build and it doesn't really matter if Krug is a little overpaid. Sweeney's primary objective should be to try to make the team as good as possible for the next 2-3 years. If there's a chance to improve the team by letting Krug go and bringing in someone else, then it'd make sense not re-sign him. If Krug goes and there's 8 million dollars of empty cap space for next year or Sweeney makes some terrible free agent acquisition then he has obviously made a huge blunder.
 
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Over the volcano

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I just wonder if Sweeney & Co. don't want to go 7-8 years on a deal. I mean 36/37 years old for a d-man is up there. While a few have been able to keep playing at that age (at a competitive level) it's not very common.
It'd be a shame if they punted on having him for the next 5 years because they were concerned about a contract 6-8 years from now.

IMO they know what he's asking but there is little to no certainty about what the league will look like in the next year or so - so they're waiting it out.

Maybe they ask for the chance to counter any offer he gets in free agency, but that's just an ask.

Maybe he hears from other clubs who are more committed to him as a player and will give him an expanded role (he could certainly be a captain in this league).

It doesn't look good for him staying in Boston - IMO they should have locked up an extension for a while now. He comes up biggest when they need him most.
 
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TwineTickler

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It'd be a shame if they punted on having him for the next 5 years because they were concerned about a contract 6-8 years from now.

Very much disagree on that. Look at how that's worked out for a bunch of teams across the league, including us with Backes. The Seabrook deal. Can't do stuff like that anymore, especially when you have an extremely deep D core that can handle his loss.
 

ON3M4N

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By the time Krug's deal would be nearing its end Bergeron, Krejci, Rask and Marchand have all probably retired. At that point Bruins are looking at a re-build and it doesn't really matter if Krug is a little overpaid. Sweeney's primary objective should be to try to make the team as good as possible for the next 2-3 years. If there's a chance to improve the team by letting Krug go and bringing in someone else, then it'd make sense not re-sign him. If Krug goes and there's 8 million dollars of empty cap space for next year or Sweeney makes some terrible free agent acquisition then he has obviously made a huge blunder.

It'd be a shame if they punted on having him for the next 5 years because they were concerned about a contract 6-8 years from now.

Figured it would be easy to just reply to you both as my post kind of address both.

In the next few years, there are going to be a lot of guys to re-sign and that money is going to get eaten up quickly assuming everyone (outside of maybe Krejci) is probably going to get a raise.

2020 off-season UFA/RFA
Krug
DeBrusk
Bjork
Chara
Grzelcyk
Senyshyn
Khulman
Zboril
Vladar

2021 off-season UFA/RFA
Krejci
Carlo
Rask
Halak
Kase
Kurlay
Frederic

2022 off-season UFA/RFA
Bergeron
McAvoy
Lauzon
Studnicka
Vaakanainen
Keyser

2023 off-season UFA/RFA
Pastrnak
Wanger
Clifton

Only Marchand and Coyle are signed past past the 2023-2024 season. This also doesn't take into account if you have guys like DeBrusk on a 2-3 year bridge deal. With a flat cap for the next few years, managing the cap is even more critical. I think everyone here would agree that Krug is a fantastic PP QB, but again the question is how much of the PP's success is on Krug's shoulders. Could the PP be effective without Krug? That's where we all go back and fourth. Me personally, I'm ok if Krug walks for more money because I feel like Grz or McAvoy could take over the PP role and while it may take a small dip, the PP will still have Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak leading it.

Its a fine line between focusing on the now and looking 2-3 years down the road to keep yourself setup for prolonged success.
 
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Over the volcano

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Very much disagree on that. Look at how that's worked out for a bunch of teams across the league, including us with Backes. The Seabrook deal. Can't do stuff like that anymore, especially when you have an extremely deep D core that can handle his loss.
I mean sure- if you're against long term deals as a whole then it'd make no sense. And 3-4 years would be ideal, but may not be a realistic option.
 

Beesfan

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The problem here is that Krug will make much more on the open market than people here realize. Spurgeon got $7.5m over 7 years with the Wild, and he is 5'9, 30 years old and less talented than Krug. Some team will probably pay Krug $8 million per year on a 7 year deal. The only way this doesn't happen is if the cap goes way down, but then it goes down for us too, so it doesn't really change the calculus.

If we move on from Krug this year, it will have been a textbook example of strong asset management in a salary cap environment. We brought him in for nothing as a NCAA UFA, got about eight years of service almost entirely in the prime of his career, and paid an average of about $3.11 million per year. Let someone else pay him $8 million per year for the next 8 years, only a few of which will be in his prime. Our focus should be on developing the young talent we have on D, and finding the next Torey Krug.
 

TwineTickler

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The problem here is that Krug will make much more on the open market than people here realize. Spurgeon got $7.5m over 7 years with the Wild, and he is 5'9, 30 years old and less talented than Krug. Some team will probably pay Krug $8 million per year on a 7 year deal. The only way this doesn't happen is if the cap goes way down, but then it goes down for us too, so it doesn't really change the calculus.

If we move on from Krug this year, it will have been a textbook example of strong asset management in a salary cap environment. We brought him in for nothing as a NCAA UFA, got about eight years of service almost entirely in the prime of his career, and paid an average of about $3.11 million per year. Let someone else pay him $8 million per year for the next 8 years, only a few of which will be in his prime. Our focus should be on developing the young talent we have on D, and finding the next Torey Krug.

I am giving this post a standing ovation. Bang on.
 

UncleRico

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Habs have plenty of cash and a spot for Krug. The good news is US players don't tend to gravitate towards Canada. Every sports media type in Montreal would pop a permanent pants tent if somehow the Habs could lure Krug from the Bruins and onto their roster. I don't see Krug signing with the Habs unless the offer was just ridiculous but don't discount that possibility , Krug is exactly what they need. What could be worse than seeing a beloved former Bruin in a Habs jersey?

what could be worse than seeing Krug in a Habs Jersey?

signing Krug to a $7m+ AAV deal for 5+ years when with uncertainty about the future cap and having no replacement or money to spend on a top pairing LHD through trade or free agency for the next 5 years. Bruins currently don’t have any prospects that are capable of being an adequate top pairing LHD.
 
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bbfan419

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I can live with that. I hope we don't have to give up assets to unload Moore so if I can get a pick I'm doing back flips.
Agree Moore does not make enough or is such a liability that they need to add an asset to trade him, there are lots of team that could use a decent vet like him on their blue line.
 

bbfan419

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Who's taking Krejci spot? Studnicka? I'd like to see Stud play a few games at the NHL level before I'm trading David, not because I don't think he can do it but there is likely gonna be an adjustment period.
That is what I was thinking and DK most likely is gone after next year anyway.
 

bbfan419

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The problem here is that Krug will make much more on the open market than people here realize. Spurgeon got $7.5m over 7 years with the Wild, and he is 5'9, 30 years old and less talented than Krug. Some team will probably pay Krug $8 million per year on a 7 year deal. The only way this doesn't happen is if the cap goes way down, but then it goes down for us too, so it doesn't really change the calculus.

If we move on from Krug this year, it will have been a textbook example of strong asset management in a salary cap environment. We brought him in for nothing as a NCAA UFA, got about eight years of service almost entirely in the prime of his career, and paid an average of about $3.11 million per year. Let someone else pay him $8 million per year for the next 8 years, only a few of which will be in his prime. Our focus should be on developing the young talent we have on D, and finding the next Torey Krug.
Guys like Cooper Zech and Jack Achan could be the next Krug type of player.
 
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Over the volcano

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Guys like Cooper Zech and Jack Achan could be the next Krug type of player.
This is like when people compare every promising undersized non-drafted forward to Martin St Louis - none of them have been right.

Achan and Zech are great prospects, but Krug it an elite offensive defenseman in the league. The question is whether we want one on this team or not. The $ is there.

I will add, if you really want to develop young defensmen, you want Krug on this team. He took leadership role for young players real early on in his time here and is the perfect role model/leader you want in the ears of these kids.
 

bbfan419

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This is like when people compare every promising undersized non-drafted forward to Martin St Louis - none of them have been right.

Achan and Zech are great prospects, but Krug it an elite offensive defenseman in the league. The question is whether we want one on this team or not. The $ is there.

I will add, if you really want to develop young defensmen, you want Krug on this team. He took leadership role for young players real early on in his time here and is the perfect role model/leader you want in the ears of these kids.
For sure I was not saying it was a given, but those guys play a similar type of game. I want to keep Krug, but 6 years is the max term I would go. I would trade Krejci though to keep Krug, Krejci is likely walking after next season anyway.
 

Smitty93

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The problem here is that Krug will make much more on the open market than people here realize. Spurgeon got $7.5m over 7 years with the Wild, and he is 5'9, 30 years old and less talented than Krug. Some team will probably pay Krug $8 million per year on a 7 year deal. The only way this doesn't happen is if the cap goes way down, but then it goes down for us too, so it doesn't really change the calculus.

If we move on from Krug this year, it will have been a textbook example of strong asset management in a salary cap environment. We brought him in for nothing as a NCAA UFA, got about eight years of service almost entirely in the prime of his career, and paid an average of about $3.11 million per year. Let someone else pay him $8 million per year for the next 8 years, only a few of which will be in his prime. Our focus should be on developing the young talent we have on D, and finding the next Torey Krug.

The thing with this is that most of the teams that have the cap space to do this aren't contenders. Colorado's got the space, but who else?

We're going to find out how much winning matters to Krug. It's possible that the Bruins are only offering $40 million total and someone else will give him $56 million. I'm guessing most of us would take the money and run, if given the option.

If you're Krug, it's probably a lot easier to take a deal like that from a bad team if the Bruins win the Cup this year. If they don't, then he's suddenly considering the possibility that he may never compete for a Cup again.
 

ON3M4N

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This is like when people compare every promising undersized non-drafted forward to Martin St Louis - none of them have been right.

Achan and Zech are great prospects, but Krug it an elite offensive defenseman in the league. The question is whether we want one on this team or not. The $ is there.

I will add, if you really want to develop young defensmen, you want Krug on this team. He took leadership role for young players real early on in his time here and is the perfect role model/leader you want in the ears of these kids.

Is that really the question though? Look no one thought Krug was going to be an elite OFD when he came out of college. If they did then he wouldn't have been a UFA to begin with. Achan had similar production to Krug in the NCAA, which is why the comp comes up so much (also being roughly the same size). Am I saying that Achan is going to be Krug? no because no one knows, just like no one knew about Krug. From the Bruins perspective its do we have a guy that can give up even 80% of Krug's PP production? Is this team a cup contender without Krug? If Krug walks, what can we do with the extra cap space (legit #2RW maybe?).

If Krug is re-signed at say $8 million, it could be you have to part with a guy like Jake DeBrusk depending on his ask. For a team that lacks secondary scoring, that's a pretty big blow because you're probably not getting a player back that's equivalent and cheaper than DeBrusk.
 
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BMC

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The problem here is that Krug will make much more on the open market than people here realize. Spurgeon got $7.5m over 7 years with the Wild, and he is 5'9, 30 years old and less talented than Krug. Some team will probably pay Krug $8 million per year on a 7 year deal. The only way this doesn't happen is if the cap goes way down, but then it goes down for us too, so it doesn't really change the calculus.

If we move on from Krug this year, it will have been a textbook example of strong asset management in a salary cap environment. We brought him in for nothing as a NCAA UFA, got about eight years of service almost entirely in the prime of his career, and paid an average of about $3.11 million per year. Let someone else pay him $8 million per year for the next 8 years, only a few of which will be in his prime. Our focus should be on developing the young talent we have on D, and finding the next Torey Krug.

Hear, hear! Well said!!! :clap:
 
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Mr. Make-Believe

The happy genius of my household
If you’re letting Krug walk at anything above 6, you’re saying that the only reason Krug deserves to be paid more is cause the salary cap has gone up..which is fine I guess, we just very very very much disagree. The break down of that is 60k salary cap inflation, 15k value.

That’s what all these threads do, read the McAvoy one last year, DeBrusk, Krug..anytime someone comes up for extension all of a sudden the player is bad, not worth money, etc. etc. The fans are cheaper than Jacobs is!



Scroll up, the only thing convenient about it was I decided not to type the same thing twice. I will extend the same question to you that I did to Joker though, if it’s all about 2027 and we’re not concerned with talent drop offs this year in sacrifice of that...then what do we do with our 35 year olds? Should we be exploring trading Bergeron, Rask, and Krejci to get value for them?



Like who? And is that historically been accurate? I’d love to get a list of Don Sweeney’s offseason acquisitions and see what those look like. IIRC none of them scream great value or cap sheet optimization.

Re: expansion...Maybe you would, but I wouldn’t take Gryz or Lauzon straight up over Krug, especially in this limited cup window, so the expansion draft point is moot to me. Seattle can’t take more than 1 player..so whether we expose Gryz, Lauzon, or Gryz and Lauzon they’re still losing someone and that’s also something you can maneuver by working with Seattle.



Show me where. No hypothetical “middle 6 wing”, I would like names and contracts(If FA) or trades
I like most of your contributions to this board. Well-informed and articulated opinions. Usually fair and balanced.

This is not one of those posts.

I’m on my phone, so I’m just gonna number points in order of how you stated them:

1. Nope! Not what I’m saying at all. You’re either not reading what I wrote, or your choosing to ignore it to be argumentative. He IS worth more. I just don’t want the Bruins to be the team to pay it for the factors I laid out previously.

2. Strawman. Bergeron, Krejci, etc aren’t up for contract renewal. That’s a discussion we can (and should) have when they are. I’m sure there will be differing opinions of value when the time comes for them too.

3. You want to argue that Sweeney doesn’t have a great track record with his UFAs? I agree! And I’d hope that he’d hit on the next acquisition as he attempts to improve the roster. Or should he not even try because he’s so bad at it?

4. The point on the expansion draft seems to be missed. The idea is under one scenario, you get to choose the player you want to keep, rather than simply allowing the Kraken to take the more valuable of the two. That you would keep Krug over both is inconsequential. No one is suggesting that Gryz is worth $7.5M/yr.

The question is where the cap space is best allocated. The defence wouldn’t be as good without Krug, but it would still be among the best units in the NHL. The Bruins depth scoring however, is nowhere near.

5. “Tell me specifically who-how-much-and-for-what-and-where?” AKA “build me a strawman so I can burn it down.” Worst argument one makes on these boards and I see it all the time. I’d suggest someone and then you’d pick it apart. That specific guy can’t be acquired. That specific guy is overrated. That guy wouldn’t fit. That guy is overpaid. Because that guy doesn’t work for you, that makes me wrong and you right. It’s horsepiss.

Is your argument that an addition to the forwards is impossible? Because if we can concede that it isn’t, then we’re just debating preference in how the cap is spent. Not this wild, pure fantasy that you seem to be implying.
 

Beesfan

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Apr 10, 2006
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This is like when people compare every promising undersized non-drafted forward to Martin St Louis - none of them have been right.

Achan and Zech are great prospects, but Krug it an elite offensive defenseman in the league. The question is whether we want one on this team or not. The $ is there.

I will add, if you really want to develop young defensmen, you want Krug on this team. He took leadership role for young players real early on in his time here and is the perfect role model/leader you want in the ears of these kids.

This is probably correct. We hit gold with Krug, and that won't happen with every college UFA signing or late round draft pick. That said, we don't have to replace Krug one for one. The complexion of our defense can change. I see having a bigger, more physical d-corps, with more skill in the bottom pair than we have had historically. Lauzon and Vaakanainen are going to move the puck a lot better than any bottom pair we've put out in the last few years.
 

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