How good is Larkin?

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
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Hes on an 8 game point streak now, top 20 in scoring for centermen and probably a top 5 or so face off guy in the league now. If you think Tavares is playing like an elite first line center this year than Larkin is as well. Theyre having very comparable years so far, same with Getzlaf. They have years of play to back up this level of play, but if you think that they are elite right now through 35 games this season, so is Larkin
 
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NoName

Bringer of Playoffs!
Nov 3, 2017
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As long as you [mod] use those 30 games to say hes going to be for sure better, whats wrong with it?

Me saying its been debatable who has been better this season between them in the 30 games is not the same as saying Larkin is for sure better going forward or that he would play ahead of him in Toronto. I laid out the stats in my earlier post, in the 30 games so far this year Larkin has been arguably better than Tavares. Why cant we say that?
I mean even ignoring their bodies of work before this season here are the stats for this season only:

Tavares
35 games played, 23 goals, 15 assists, 38 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 57.0, FFW%= 55.7, Points/60=3.3, ONice goals for/60=5.2. ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=103.6

Larkin

36 games played, 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 53.2, FFW%= 52.8, Points/60=2.6, ONice goals for/60=3.1, ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=99.1

Both the traditional and advanced stats seem to suggest Tavares has the advantage this season so far. Tavares' PDO above 100 suggests that maybe this could even out a bit more going forward but for now it would be tough to make the case for Larkin having a better season then Tavares.
 
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NoName

Bringer of Playoffs!
Nov 3, 2017
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I really don’t think he’s been great the last few games of this point steak if I’m being honest.
I will say that at only 22 I do think Larkin can be a franchise centre, but I am not yet certain he necessarily will be the way I am for other young players like Matthews or Mackinnon or Barkov or even Eichel; he just hasn't consistently produced at that level yet for an extended period. If he shows me a near point-per-game pace over a full season with strong two-way play then I would be much more sold on him as being able to be the anchor on a contending team in the future (which means him going head to head against the best centres in the league in a seven game series and winning the battle).
 

mphmiles

Registered User
Jan 1, 2017
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I mean even ignoring their bodies of work before this season here are the stats for this season only:

Tavares
35 games played, 23 goals, 15 assists, 38 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 57.0, FFW%= 55.7, Points/60=3.3, ONice goals for/60=5.2. ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=103.6

Larkin

36 games played, 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 53.2, FFW%= 52.8, Points/60=2.6, ONice goals for/60=3.1, ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=99.1

Both the traditional and advanced stats seem to suggest Tavares has the advantage this season so far. Tavares' PDO above 100 suggests that maybe this could even out a bit more going forward but for now it would be tough to make the case for Larkin having a better season then Tavares.

You're using "all situations" for Corsi and Fenwick. That's way disingenuous for a number of reasons and no one uses that as a comparison- because it's completely apples and oranges.

1. Larkin spends 1:40 per game killing penalties, which obviously hurts his shot metrics.
2. Tavares gets 40 more seconds on the power play per night, which obviously helps his.
3. The Leafs team corsi/fenwick are 6&5% better than the wings as a team.

Of course his numbers are better than Larkin's when you look at it that superficially. At even strength, JT is at 51.4% and 49.1%. Larkin is at 53.6 and 53.7.

That's with not even getting into the difference between their line mates and defensive pairings, as obivously JT is playing next to way better players in Marner and rielly.

FWIW I do think Tavares > Larkin right now, because as mentioned this is only a 35 game sample size. If Larkin keeps this pace up over a whole season, then there's a good argument, but not until then.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
19,735
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If he was just a bit better/reliable on offense... would be a world class player
He's really reliable, the problem is no one else on the Wings is. Very hard for Larkin to pick up secondary assists or to get any "easy" goals. The fact he's almost PPG on such a bad team is a real testament to what a great season he is having.
 

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,718
8,241
I mean even ignoring their bodies of work before this season here are the stats for this season only:

Tavares
35 games played, 23 goals, 15 assists, 38 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 57.0, FFW%= 55.7, Points/60=3.3, ONice goals for/60=5.2. ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=103.6

Larkin

36 games played, 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points
Advanced stats: CF%= 53.2, FFW%= 52.8, Points/60=2.6, ONice goals for/60=3.1, ONice goals against/60=3.1, PDO=99.1

Both the traditional and advanced stats seem to suggest Tavares has the advantage this season so far. Tavares' PDO above 100 suggests that maybe this could even out a bit more going forward but for now it would be tough to make the case for Larkin having a better season then Tavares.

Not really, youre looking at the numbers wrong. I'll post using even strength numbers, not all situations.

Tavares
CF% 51.9, Fenwick percentage 49.4%, PDO 103, Scoring chance for% 55.1%, High danger corsi for% 57.3%

38 points in 35 games

Larkin
CF% 53.2, FF% 53.4%, PDO 987, scoring chance for 54%, HDCF 48.7%

34 points in 36 games

Tavares plays more a game on thePP and Larkin is wasting energy shorthanded every game. Larkin is better on draws. When you consider one plays with Marner and more on the PP I'm not sure how you can say Tavares is having a better season right now. Taking linemates and team quality into account especially.


FWIW I do think Tavares > Larkin right now, because as mentioned this is only a 35 game sample size. If Larkin keeps this pace up over a whole season, then there's a good argument, but not until then.

I agree, I'm talking about this sample size. If you want to call one elite through this time span you have to cal the other as well.
 
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The Winter Soldier

Registered User
Apr 4, 2011
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Players values are often linked with their recent comparables.

Excluding Nylander where he missed most of the season at 2pts in 7 games at 6.96per.

Larkin 15g 19a 34pts 6.1 per
Ehlers 15g 12a 27pts 6M per
Pasta 22g 22a 44 pts 6.67 per
Reinhart 8g 26a 34pts 3.65 per
Draisaitl 16g 26a 42pts 8.5 per

Hard to beat Larkin's value with his contract. Though this is a list where all teams seem to have made astute signings thus far based on this season.
 
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newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,718
8,241
9 game point streak just ended.

Get this kid some talent please. Looking at you Stevie Y :)

He wasnt given the assist eh shouldve been, then it was given to him later in the game and taken away again shortly after mid game. After the game they gave him assist (which he deserved).

So he actually has an NHL high 11 game point streak going into the xms break right now. He is legit
 
Sep 28, 2017
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He wasnt given the assist eh shouldve been, then it was given to him later in the game and taken away again shortly after mid game. After the game they gave him assist (which he deserved).

So he actually has an NHL high 11 game point streak going into the xms break right now. He is legit

Odd they give him that assist but not the one against Vancouver.
 

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,718
8,241
Odd they give him that assist but not the one against Vancouver.

I dont remember what play youre talking about in Vancouver actually but the one against FLorida was clearly an assist. They took it away because the goalie tried to pokecheck and touched the puck a little and then said it was unassisted. I couldnt believe they flip flopped that much on it it was blatantly obvious
 

NYRKing

Registered User
Mar 12, 2008
1,357
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I always see him and think of Kreider with play making ability. And I’m a big fan of Kreiders game...

Would love to see the two of them on a line one day.
 

Gabrielor

"Win with us or watch us win." - Rasmus Dahlin
Jun 28, 2011
13,022
13,352
Buffalo, NY
I love me some Dylan Larkin. Despite playing in our division, I enjoy watching him. Wish he was Buffalo's.
 

Hatter of the Beach

I’m the real hero
Jun 26, 2017
3,197
3,683
Parkland Estates, Florida
Players values are often linked with their recent comparables.

Excluding Nylander where he missed most of the season at 2pts in 7 games at 6.96per.

Larkin 15g 19a 34pts 6.1 per
Ehlers 15g 12a 27pts 6M per
Pasta 22g 22a 44 pts 6.67 per
Reinhart 8g 26a 34pts 3.65 per
Draisaitl 16g 26a 42pts 8.5 per

Hard to beat Larkin's value with his contract. Though this is a list where all teams seem to have made astute signings thus far based on this season.

Agreed on the value. All good players on decent to great contracts, but none on that list are in anywhere close to a crappy situation as Larkin is in. As is, I’d take his contract over all of them but Pasta (assuming Reinhart gets 6-6.5 mil)
 

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