Great job putting that together. I won't be altogether surprised to see Laine take less than what many are forecasting but I'm not sure it will be as low as $8.5. I wish for that but have just about zero expectation of that. I really don't see them bridging Laine, they just won't take that chance.
Connor on the other hand is in my mind the wildcard. I don't know how he feels about being here as he's largely flown under the radar with Laine's arrival. Does he like it here? Is winning more important than a huge salary? And what if Laine puts up 50 but Connor puts up 40? He's getting PP1 time, playing top line, it's not inconceivable given his hands and linemates. How do you ask a 40 goal scorer to take $6? All of these guys have egos, so if Marner is getting $8 how is Connor going to feel about a $6 offer? Probably pretty insulted. Honestly I look at the Toronto situation with Nylander and can't believe they actually publicly stated players should take a discount to play for Toronto. Uh, no, not happening. Now I do think Nylander should get a contract roughly what Ehlers % of cap is, whatever that works out to in current dollars. It's less than his ask but more than the rumored offer. I also think that Marner is going to be tough to sign next year for them. Basically Winnipeg and Toronto are in the same boat in many ways, we just got lucky with Ehlers and Scheifele signing bargain deals. My guess is they bridge Connor out of necessity and to buy some further time to clear the books but heaven help us if Connor pots another couple of 30+ goal seasons while on a bridge (which based on Trouba's ridiculous award might be $6 anyway
).
I guess I'm just a little less optimistic in terms of how this is all going to work out. Let's say Laine takes $9.5 and Connor wants $7.5. It's nice to point to Ehlers and Scheifele's relative bargain contracts but we can't realistically expect either Laine or Connor to take home team discounts, it's just not the way it works in reality. Those discounts are the exception rather than the rule.