Around 05-06 I started presenting the concept of varied shot success on “ Lowetide”
I had made to observations 49+ yr old that identified the 2 half’s of Goal diff Science.
It is really a mass formula.
Homeplate came from watching VClarke Leach, Flin Flon Bombers .
Their violence was about attacking and defending the net.
the second half was playing street 45+ yr ago.
I noticed a younger Ron Gunville ( CurrentbPlayer Personell Director PA Raiders ( WHL Champs) move with the ball like a table hockey goalie.
The ball hit him at a high rate.
It had 0% chance of going.
It was a closed shot.
I realized most pucks directed at the net had 0% chance of going in. ( blocks + misses + Hit goalie ( closed shot).
Open closed shot theory!
in 2006 I started doing a rough manual tracking of shots through video. I came up with a primitive map of shot density relative to x,y location.
At the same time 2006/shot Quality was presented.
It showed the same results as my work!
But they failed to indicate the importance of the amplitude of curves increased as you got closer to the net.
Simple targeting rules.
Or
show the importance of a success map.
Shot density by x,y location.
Todays xGF is a failure to understand my complete goal diff analysis.
I even advised Analytic Calculator site ( Not theory) like Emmanuelle Perry that there work was crap!
My open/closed shot theory is the true Shot Quality theory.
There are 0% chance Corsi ( blocks + forced misses + closed Sh)
and
open Corsi (open shots that hit z.y open space in net elevation requiring goalie movement to make a save.
Goal diff is a struggle between forwards trying to penetrate ( maybe 6 off d in top 280 skaters) Homeplate and release a puck deep in x,y location of Homeplate targeted to hit open space in y,z of net elevation.
their are 2 type of elite Dmen:
1 Homeplate who try to prevent penetration of Homeplate to their side. Larsson, Chara ......
2. Closed Corsi Dmen who cause the lowest % of Corsi to be open shots thru ( blocks + Forced misses + Closed shots)
Elite Dmen like Languay, Stevens, Kris Russell, Dehaan.
A. Forward establish a xGF at point of release based on the Homeplate density map.
B. Dpairs estAblish a xSave% based on success map of only open shots.
C. goalies performance is measured by a +/-ve performance around the xSAVE% established.
first thing you realize: is a PDO looks at 2 affects and combines Dmen and goalie play.
When every single forward, dman, goalie has their own average they regress to. There is no common Individual avg in the game.
PDO is a JOKE!
2 Nd thing you realize:
Is all current analytics based on only Homeplate is 100% wrong?
in 07-08 I presented
3D plater situation map that looked at Team, Comp, FO ZS
4 x 4 x 6 = 96 c,ear groups of diffrent averages.
everyone wants to work in simple binary approach.
But at minimum you need to deferential data to exclude all coaches decisions that have an effect on every player.
Team ( 1st to 4 th line)
Comp ( 1st to fourth
ZS: 2 kinds
Bench change with or without pocession.
FO with 6 groups of %
NZ transition defence run/ do not
4 x 4 x 2 x 6 x 2 = 384 posdible situations.
Forward shooting% is reflective of their own shot targeting.
There volume is reflective of them and teamates.
Goal mass = volume x overall open/ closed shot density success.
xGF is release point.
But that is not even close to the story.
The entire puck path options have to be acted on each Corsi.
