How crazy is it that Ovechkin may tie Gretkzy and Bossy for most 50-goal seasons this year?

[Oil Dood]

I hope we live long enough to see another guy with an impact like he had

The overall talent now a days is so much better. The guys coming up are so athletic, big and fast. Back then the top guys stood out way more then now(there are a few like McD), and the player is way smarter so the mistakes do not happen as often as they would have then. But with the talent it is a matter of time.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

38 goals is considered a disappointment, that's how good of a goal scorer he was.

Exactly, its insanity.

 

[Strangle]

The few posters above completely ignoring the value of adjusted stats is exactly what's wrong with this forum. Nobody is saying that hockeyreferences adjusted stats are perfect, but they provide VITAL context to a scenario where it is a fact that it was much easier to score in Gretzky/Lemieux's days than it is now.

3 Points I'm going to make, and I'd like 3 honest answers.

Okay, I’ll bite. Since I’m sure you’re kinda talking about me

1) For example, taking goals at face value and ignoring the scoring environment as a whole, look at the 1984-1985 season where Mike Gartner was 9th place in goals with 50. Ovechkin has around 5 Rocket Richards where he scored around ~50 goals. Would these outstanding Ovechkin seasons really equate to only being hardly top-10 back in the day?

Gretzky our scored the 2nd place player by 73 points that year. 73 point difference between #1 and #2.

There was only 40 points separating #2 and #20

I’m not great at math, but is that like a 35% difference in points?

That’s like if McDavid won the scoring race with 120 points and the second place player only scored 78 points. Have we ever seen separation like that out of a single player? Even just against their peers?

2) In 1980, $1,000,000 CAD would be worth about $3,000,000 today. Why? Because everything today costs on average, much much more than it did back then. Similar to how everyone scored more goals in 1980 than they do today. So tell me, is $1,100,000 today worth more than $1,000,000 30 years ago, just because it's a bigger number?

Economics don’t work the same way as hockey. Like at all

3) Let's say all of a sudden the league makes a rule change that forces NHL goalies to wear equipment that they wore 35 years ago, and this therefore increases scoring to 50% higher than 1980 levels. If McDavid scores 240 points, does he then get deemed to have 'peaked' higher than Gretzky did, all because of the absolute numbers?

Yes, absolutely he would

If you answered 'yes' to any of these 3 questions, you are completely ignorant and foolish. As I said, it's hard to find a perfect way to measure between vastly different scoring environments, but to ignore them completely and just say that X > Y or X/gp > Y/gp is just a terrible, closed minded way of thinking.

okay lol

 

[Minar]

Here's what rick vaive a multiple 50 goal scorer said about comparing eras.

When Vaive considers the changes in the game, he figures it goes both ways.
“We got hooked and held and grabbed and cross-checked,” Vaive said. “You couldn’t get rebounds in front because you would be on your ass before you had a chance to.
“Today, you can get those rebounds, but the goalies are bigger, they have bigger equipment.
“I believe anybody who could accomplish 50 goals multiple times (as Vaive did) could do it in any decade, all things being equal.”

 

[Messrules11]

It really is crazy. Bossy and Gretzky were the standard. Bossy with 9 straight still amazes me.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

For those saying a number is a number, and no context is needed - I have the business deal of a lifetime for you.

You can pay me 10,000 US dollars. I will then pay you 11,000 Hong Kong dollars. 11 > 10.

 

[Strangle]

For those saying a number is a number, and no context is needed - I have the business deal of a lifetime for you.

You can pay me 10,000 US dollars. I will then pay you 11,000 Hong Kong dollars. 11 > 10.

no one is saying that. What some people are saying is a goal is a goal. It’s not 1.13 goals, or 0.78 goals

what you’re saying is that scoring goals in one league is the same as scoring goals in another league, you’re not making any sense

 

[kugelbahn]

adjusted goals are big macs of hockey, how many you could buy in different eras or with different currencies is what important

 

[RorschachWJK]

For those saying a number is a number, and no context is needed - I have the business deal of a lifetime for you.

You can pay me 10,000 US dollars. I will then pay you 11,000 Hong Kong dollars. 11 > 10.

I have an even better proposition because it takes into account the concept of time and it's effects, as in comparing eras. You give me 10 000 USD now and I will pay you back 10 000 USD after 20 years...

 

[kugelbahn]

smart offer, as long as those are not CAD, who knows if those will still be around in 20 years, just look at NHL trends...

 

[kugelbahn]

anyway, a buck is a buck and it is best kept under matress, no fancy stuff, it is called economics

 

[Anahome]

anyway, a buck is a buck and it is best kept under matress, no fancy stuff, it is called economics

I'd rather keep gold under mattress.

 

[SwaggySpungo]

Yes, back in Grez days goal scoring was at an all time low. It was tough to score goals.

Ironically, that is true, at least for Gretzky’s last 5 seasons (25% of his career) which were all during the dead puck era.

His final season, an average of only 5.26 goals-per-game were scored in the NHL. No season in Ovechkin’s career has ever had such low scoring.

 

[alko]

Press play.

Is there any guy today, that could have similar graph in the future? Auston Matthews?

 

[TheTechNoir]

Bossy retired at 30

Mike Stevens retired after the 03-04 season. Any other random tidbits about hockey players people want to contribute to this thread?

 

[Sam Spade]

Is there any guy today, that could have similar graph in the future? Auston Matthews?

I thought he and Laine would be the guys for sure, given up on Laine for now, but Matthews looks like a decent bet.

Matthews won’t score as much as Ovechkin but he is very consistent to start his career. Def could see him scoring 30 plus for a lot more years to come.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Bossy retired at 30

And how is that Ovechkin's fault? You posted this in an Ovechkin thread.

 

[filinski77]

Is there any guy today, that could have similar graph in the future? Auston Matthews?

Since Matthews came in the league:

Ovechkin - 167
Matthews - 145
Pastrnak - 144
Kucherov - 142
McDavid - 139
Draisaitl - 131

In almost 4 years, Matthews has not separated himself (as far as goal totals go, don't hit me back with the per game or /60 stuff) from his other young peers. Unless he significantly ramps it up, whilst all the other young stars decline, then no, he won't have a remotely similar graph.

For Reference, Ovechkin after his first 4 seasons had a 30 goal lead over #2 and 63 goal lead over #5

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Here's what rick vaive a multiple 50 goal scorer said about comparing eras.

When Vaive considers the changes in the game, he figures it goes both ways.
“We got hooked and held and grabbed and cross-checked,” Vaive said. “You couldn’t get rebounds in front because you would be on your ass before you had a chance to.
“Today, you can get those rebounds, but the goalies are bigger, they have bigger equipment.
“I believe anybody who could accomplish 50 goals multiple times (as Vaive did) could do it in any decade, all things being equal.”

I get what he’s saying. That all said, the guys racking up 50 in this era are not the type who are putting in work for the garbage goals he is talking about. But let’s take what he’s said and pretend it does negate the goalie pad size.


Even then I still think this is a tougher era because the quality of player is so insanely better across the board.



I mean, if you watch games from the 80’s it’s almost insane how steep the talent drop off from the top line or so is. You had some really bad players playing a lot of minutes. Also in the 80s we’re looking at a hockey game that doesn’t really even have all the best players, the entire Soviet bloc isn’t participating.


Lastly the tactics have change for the better. In the 80s goalies played so far out and were so hesitant to leave their feet, a sniper like Gretzky knew if he just put it in the corners or dangled a bit he’d have a huge window. Even defense has evolved, I mean if you weren’t an “elite” d-man you really weren’t puck handling too much, it was all about getting the puck out of the zone ASAP and that usually meant check the forward and swipe at the puck. Today’s NHL forces players to reckon with very competent defenders who will pick your pocket and easily set up a beauty of a play if given space.



I’m admittedly bias, but I really wonder how many lovers of that era have tried to go back an watch just a regular season game between two regular teams. It’s very ugly hockey by modern standards

 

[DFC]

It's impressive that he's done it over two fairly different eras. Who's the oldest player to score 50?

 

[gtrower]

It's impressive that he's done it over two fairly different eras. Who's the oldest player to score 50?

Bucyk at age 35 in ‘71. Jágr and Hull both did it at 33 (along with Ovi last season).

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

19 total 50 goal seasons at age 30+. Guessing that number falls to 7 or 8 if you adjust for era. Ovi on pace for his 3rd (and just missed another w/ 49 a few years ago). Past models of goal scoring decline just don’t apply to him at this point. He’s already in uncharted waters.

 

[kugelbahn]

Bucyk at age 35 in ‘71. Jágr and Hull both did it at 33 (along with Ovi last season).

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

19 total 50 goal seasons at age 30+. Guessing that number falls to 7 or 8 if you adjust for era. Ovi on pace for his 3rd (and just missed another w/ 49 a few years ago). Past models of goal scoring decline just don’t apply to him at this point. He’s already in uncharted waters.

Good old Bucyk, career high of 31 goals till he hits 51 goals at age of 35 in '71. I wonder what happened...

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Good old Bucyk, career high of 31 goals till he hits 51 goals at age of 35 in '71. I wonder what happened...

Yeah. Maybe the adjusted stat haters could...uhhh...expand on that?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Good old Bucyk, career high of 31 goals till he hits 51 goals at age of 35 in '71. I wonder what happened...

Not sure if you're sarcastic, but in case you're not (and for those who don't know) - Bobby Orr.

 

[Riddum]

Yes...and he also played in an era with, way, way higher scoring.

Then how come there aren't more players with so many 50 goals seasons???