How are you feeling about the Oilers right now?

[nexttothemoon]

Well the team has basically nowhere to go but up if some of the projections are for 30th place overall... so at least there's not going to be an extremely disappointing drop off like what happened after the 16/17 playoff year.

 

[The Nuge]

Sean Tierney from ChartingHockey (does WAR charts among other analytics) showed his projections on Twitter today and has the Oilers sitting 30th in front of LA and directly behind Ottawa, at under 70 points.

So yeah..

Those sort of things are why it’s hard to take most analytics seriously. We significantly upgraded our forwards (not that they’re good, but they’re still significantly better), and yet we’re going to find a way to do significantly worse?

 

[nexttothemoon]

Let's look at it from a VERY basic POV... keeping every "advanced stat" out of the picture for now...

If we use last year's goals stats as a projection of this year's stats...

Draisaitl 50
McDavid 41
RNH 28
Chiasson 22
Kassian 15
Granlund 12
Archibald 12
Neal 7
Gagner 6
Brodziak 6
Puljujarvi 4
Khaira 3
Cave 3
Currie 2
Yamamoto 1
Marody 0
Gambardella 0
Malone 0
P Russell 0
Nygard ?
Haas ?
Jurco ?
Benson?

I included every conceivable forward currently in the org that could have an impact on the roster this season.

That's 212 goals from the forwards.

Now the D...

Nurse 10
Klefbom 5
Benning 5
Larsson 3
Russell 3
Manning 2
Bouchard 1
Bear 1
Jones 1
Persson ?
Lagesson ?

That's 31 goals from the dmen.


So that's a team total of 243 goals scored in the NHL from last season "in the org" right now.


The Oilers scored 229 goals last season... so theoretically (again this is obviously a very simplistic POV) right now... they've added ~14 goals to the roster.


Obviously some players will get more goals... some less and some of the question marks will have an impact as well (potentially affecting some of the numbers up or down from others in the list).

It's a somewhat positive sign though that there's theoretically a little bit more "potential offensive energy" in the roster now than there was last season.

 

[Weitz]

Those sort of things are why it’s hard to take most analytics seriously. We significantly upgraded our forwards (not that they’re good, but they’re still significantly better), and yet we’re going to find a way to do significantly worse?

Can you clarify this?

The forwards are different.. But how can you say its better? The top 6 is the exact same subbing in some different plugs and hoping for the best. The significantly better is terrible hyperbole.

The bottom 6 isn't going to score enough to matter.

The D is worse - I don't bank on rookies to make a difference like the team apparently is this year.

The G is the same - which is bad.

 

[Jamin]

Those sort of things are why it’s hard to take most analytics seriously. We significantly upgraded our forwards (not that they’re good, but they’re still significantly better), and yet we’re going to find a way to do significantly worse?

Well Mcdavid is rehabbing so a chance he is good but not his usual level of dominance and Drai shooting 20% and scoring 50 probably wont happen again. RNH also had the best season of his career.

If Drai gets 35 goals someone needs to replace the 15. Just having a better bottom 6 isnt automatic better goal scoring when our 3 best forwards all had the best season of their careers

 

[The Nuge]

Can you clarify this?

The forwards are different.. But how can you say its better? The top 6 is the exact same subbing in some different plugs and hoping for the best. The significantly better is terrible hyperbole.

The bottom 6 isn't going to score enough to matter.

The D is worse - I don't bank on rookies to make a difference like the team apparently is this year.

The G is the same - which is bad.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson
Rieder-Cave-Gagner
Khaira-Brodziak-Pulju

Vs

Draisaitl - McDavid - Kassian
Chiasson - Nuge - Neal
Nygard - Granlund - Gagner
Khaira - Cave/Haas - Archibald

Neal>Lucic
Nygard>Rieder
Granlund>Cave
Cave/Haas>Brodziak
Archibald>Pulju

Well Mcdavid is rehabbing so a chance he is good but not his usual level of dominance and Drai shooting 20% and scoring 50 probably wont happen again. RNH also had the best season of his career.

If Drai gets 35 goals someone needs to replace the 15. Just having a better bottom 6 isnt automatic better goal scoring when our 3 best forwards all had the best season of their careers

If Drai gets 35, and Neal gets 20, our top 6 basically doesn’t change.

 

[Weitz]

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson
Rieder-Cave-Gagner
Khaira-Brodziak-Pulju

Vs

Draisaitl - McDavid - Kassian
Chiasson - Nuge - Neal
Nygard - Granlund - Gagner
Khaira - Cave/Haas - Archibald

Neal>Lucic
Nygard>Rieder
Granlund>Cave
Cave/Haas>Brodziak
Archibald>Pulju



If Drai gets 35, and Neal gets 20, our top 6 basically doesn’t change.

I'm still trying to figure out where the significant improvement is coming from? Your hoping and praying for improvement from unproven players and your 3 best players having career years again.

 

[The Nuge]

I'm still trying to figure out where the significant improvement is coming from? Your hoping and praying for improvement from unproven players and your 3 best players having career years again.

Ya because Neal, Granlund, and Archibald haven’t done anything at the NHL level right? The only unproven guy we’re hoping plays to expectations is Nygard

 

[nexttothemoon]

Personally I'd hope that...

Archibald/Granlund/Gagner can all get about 10 goals each.
Chiasson and Kassian can get around 15 each again
Neal bounces back to around the 20 range
Klefbom can score more than 5 goals
Nygard is a pleasant surprise and can pop in about 10 goals.
Persson does ok as a 1st year NHL dman and adds some offense from the blueline... not sure about how many goals (ideally 5+)... but even being a solid PP option would be a big addition.
...one of Bear/Jones/Bouchard steps up and adds some offense to the blueline as well... without completely drowning offensively.
...I'm also hoping 1 or even 2 of Benson/Marody/Yamamoto/Currie/Gambardella can surprise with a solid season and maybe pot close to 10 goals as well.


There's a big pile of question marks but really I'm not looking for huge surprises... just some decent depth scoring and then hopefully Tippett can instill a reasonable team defense system that helps cut down on errors and GA (easier said than done) and the goaltending can hold together with 2 more question marks in net... Koskinen and Smith.

I don't actually blame anyone who doesn't buy in to the line that the team is improved because there are a WHOLE LOT of question marks and unknowns in that roster... but the ingredients are there for an improved season... now we just need the cooks to actually stir and mix it up properly so we can hopefully get reasonable output out of more than just a handful of players this time around.

 

[Little Fury]

Those sort of things are why it’s hard to take most analytics seriously. We significantly upgraded our forwards (not that they’re good, but they’re still significantly better), and yet we’re going to find a way to do significantly worse?

I'm sorry we did what now?

Ya because Neal, Granlund, and Archibald haven’t done anything at the NHL level right? The only unproven guy we’re hoping plays to expectations is Nygard

Brodziak, Rieder and Spooner also had NHL track records.

Neal>Lucic
Nygard>Rieder
Granlund>Cave
Cave/Haas>Brodziak
Archibald>Pulju

Other than Neal maybe being an upgrade on Lucic, I don't think any of that is true. And even if your assessments here are accurate, the gaps certainly aren't wide enough to constitute a clear "significant" improvement.

 

[oXo Cube]

I think the bottom 6 will score a little more this season. Basically impossible for it not to.

I also think the top 6(3 really) will score a little less so it will balance out to around even.

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

Let's look at it from a VERY basic POV... keeping every "advanced stat" out of the picture for now...

If we use last year's goals stats as a projection of this year's stats...

Draisaitl 50
McDavid 41
RNH 28
Chiasson 22
Kassian 15
Granlund 12
Archibald 12
Neal 7
Gagner 6
Brodziak 6
Puljujarvi 4
Khaira 3
Cave 3
Currie 2
Yamamoto 1
Marody 0
Gambardella 0
Malone 0
P Russell 0
Nygard ?
Haas ?
Jurco ?
Benson?

I included every conceivable forward currently in the org that could have an impact on the roster this season.

That's 212 goals from the forwards.

Now the D...

Nurse 10
Klefbom 5
Benning 5
Larsson 3
Russell 3
Manning 2
Bouchard 1
Bear 1
Jones 1
Persson ?
Lagesson ?

That's 31 goals from the dmen.


So that's a team total of 243 goals scored in the NHL from last season "in the org" right now.


The Oilers scored 229 goals last season... so theoretically (again this is obviously a very simplistic POV) right now... they've added ~14 goals to the roster.


Obviously some players will get more goals... some less and some of the question marks will have an impact as well (potentially affecting some of the numbers up or down from others in the list).

It's a somewhat positive sign though that there's theoretically a little bit more "potential offensive energy" in the roster now than there was last season.

Sadly 6/7 top scoring players had career years in goals last season. Hard to say if they are going to repeat it but we need to get to around 260 goals if this team is going to make the playoffs.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Let's look at it from a VERY basic POV... keeping every "advanced stat" out of the picture for now...

If we use last year's goals stats as a projection of this year's stats...

Draisaitl 50
McDavid 41
RNH 28
Chiasson 22
Kassian 15
Granlund 12
Archibald 12
Neal 7
Gagner 6
Brodziak 6
Puljujarvi 4
Khaira 3
Cave 3
Currie 2
Yamamoto 1
Marody 0
Gambardella 0
Malone 0
P Russell 0
Nygard ?
Haas ?
Jurco ?
Benson?

I included every conceivable forward currently in the org that could have an impact on the roster this season.

That's 212 goals from the forwards.

Now the D...

Nurse 10
Klefbom 5
Benning 5
Larsson 3
Russell 3
Manning 2
Bouchard 1
Bear 1
Jones 1
Persson ?
Lagesson ?

That's 31 goals from the dmen.


So that's a team total of 243 goals scored in the NHL from last season "in the org" right now.


The Oilers scored 229 goals last season... so theoretically (again this is obviously a very simplistic POV) right now... they've added ~14 goals to the roster.


Obviously some players will get more goals... some less and some of the question marks will have an impact as well (potentially affecting some of the numbers up or down from others in the list).

It's a somewhat positive sign though that there's theoretically a little bit more "potential offensive energy" in the roster now than there was last season.

Now that's interesting. Not sure if we can bank on Draisaitl or Chaisson to quite keep their totals, but Neal should score way more, and Gagner will have a full season with us, so I'd expect over 10 goals there. Add some more goals from Klefbom, and we're looking like an improved team to me.

Drai - McDavid - Kassian
Neal - Nuge - Chaisson/Gagner
Benson - Granlund - Chaisson/Gagner
Khaira/Nygaard - Brodziak/Haas/Cave - Archibald

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Can you clarify this?

The forwards are different.. But how can you say its better? The top 6 is the exact same subbing in some different plugs and hoping for the best. The significantly better is terrible hyperbole.

The bottom 6 isn't going to score enough to matter.

The D is worse - I don't bank on rookies to make a difference like the team apparently is this year.

The G is the same - which is bad.

The D is worse? We lost no one that started the year besides the #7 and #8 D.

 

[belair]

I'm still trying to figure out where the significant improvement is coming from? Your hoping and praying for improvement from unproven players and your 3 best players having career years again.

What you're suggesting here is that Connor McDavid's production is going to flatline at this point. That's silly.

In regards to RNH, his support has improved in terms of personnel versus what he had available to him last season.

I understand the logic behind your argument, but it relies on the idea that Connor McDavid is the second best player in the NHL.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

IMO, it would be relatively safe to pencil Draisaitl/McDavid/RNH in at 40/40/25 goals.

If I'm doing it by where I expect players to start/play this season (goals only):

Drai (40) McDavid (40) Kassian (12)
Chiasson (13) RNH (25) Neal (16)
Granlund (7) Haas (8) Archibald (11)
Khaira (6) Cave (4) Gagner (7)
Nygard (5) Jurco (2)

Callups/non roster

Puljujarvi (0) Benson (4) Marody (3) Currie (2) Gambardella (2) Malone (0) Brodziak (1) Yamamoto (1)

Klefbom (8) Larsson (4)
Nurse (10) Russell (3)
Jones (3) Benning (5)
Persson (4)

Callups/non roster

Lagesson (0) Bear (1) Bouchard (3)

Koskinen
Smith

That lineup I feel is fairly realistic. some of the numbers might look pretty low until you realize that roster still represents a 20 goal increase over last season. I gave forwards I think will see time on PP2 a bit of a spike (Neal, Gagner, Haas, Archibald)

 

[Aceboogie]

The Oilers scored 229 goals last season... so theoretically (again this is obviously a very simplistic POV) right now... they've added ~14 goals to the roster.


Obviously some players will get more goals... some less and some of the question marks will have an impact as well (potentially affecting some of the numbers up or down from others in the list).

It's a somewhat positive sign though that there's theoretically a little bit more "potential offensive energy" in the roster now than there was last season.

Draisaitl shot 20% last year, which is highly unsustainable. Much like Eberle, hell see a noticeable decrease in goals. In addition, Chiasson had a crazy high shooting % and scored 10 more goals above his career average. So youd have to account for Chaisson scoring 7-10 fewer goals and Draisaitl 7-10 as well

Neal will be a 10 goal increase from replacing Lucic. But other than that, the new signings are likely only going to be replacing the old players production at best. So the goals will stay pretty flat or even decrease due to shooting %s coming back down to earth

Any actual increase in goal scoring is going to come from JP taking a big step forward + Benson or a young forward having a break out year.

 

[Aceboogie]

What you're suggesting here is that Connor McDavid's production is going to flatline at this point. That's silly.

In regards to RNH, his support has improved in terms of personnel versus what he had available to him last season.

I understand the logic behind your argument, but it relies on the idea that Connor McDavid is the second best player in the NHL.

How much higher do you expect Mcdavids points to get. Its not hard to imagine hes near the peak. If you look at alot of top players (Crosby/Malkin/OV/Stamkos) etc etc, a majority of their highest statistical seasons came in the first 4 years of their career. Other areas of his game can continue to develop, but pointswise, I wouldnt expect him to see a big increase

.

 

[Aceboogie]

Can you clarify this?

The forwards are different.. But how can you say its better? The top 6 is the exact same subbing in some different plugs and hoping for the best. The significantly better is terrible hyperbole.

The bottom 6 isn't going to score enough to matter.

The D is worse - I don't bank on rookies to make a difference like the team apparently is this year.

The G is the same - which is bad.

I dont see how the forwards are better in noticeable way. On ice for next year only, Lucic and Neal are very luckily to be somewhat similar. In the best case, Neal clicks with McDavid and scores 20. But thats wishful thinking, much like how Flames fans are wishfully thinking Lucic will be this beast bottom 6 player.

The Neal for Lucic trade is a big upgrade here due to the contracts

There was no upgrades elsewhere. Granlund is a 4th liner, the Euros are long shots to be impact players. Archibald has upside but likely not moving any needles

 

[belair]

How much higher do you expect Mcdavids points to get. Its not hard to imagine hes near the peak. If you look at alot of top players (Crosby/Malkin/OV/Stamkos) etc etc, a majority of their highest statistical seasons came in the first 4 years of their career. Other areas of his game can continue to develop, but pointswise, I wouldnt expect him to see a big increase

.

If he says healthy, I expect him to put up at least similar point totals during his prime playing years. If you expect this to be his ceiling offensively, he honestly isn't anything special in terms of a franchise talent.

When he has a better supporting cast, why would his production not improve? The Connor McDavid we're seeing today has Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse as his primary offensive defensemen. He's seeing a revolving door of checking line wingers as his linemates.

Like I said--it's silly to expect decline at this point.

 

[Aceboogie]

If he says healthy, I expect him to put up at least similar point totals during his prone playing years. If you expect this to be his ceiling offensively, he honestly isn't anything special in terms of a franchise talent.

When he has a better supporting cast, why would his production not improve? The Connor McDavid we're seeing today has Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse as his primary offensive defensemen. He's seeing a revolving door of checking line wingers as his linemates.

Like I said--it's silly to expect decline at this point.

I think its important to see statistical ceiling being different than absolute ceiling. Players can round out their game and become better defensively. They can be better players even though the goals/points didnt increase. With that being said, I dont think well see a big uptick in points from McDavid next year. I think hes nearing his statistical peak. Although, I agree that a better supporting cast would give him a boost, cant argue with that. But I dont see us getting him any better linemates than he has now.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I'm quite happy with McDavid "plateauing" in the 110-120 pt range.

It's the bottom 6 that needs to improve and if that happens.. it opens up space for everyone in the lineup and takes pressure off the top 6 as well... so you don't have to force McDavid to burn out playing 25 minutes per night.

If he's relied on each year to put up that type of ice time and get 120+ pts to drag this team on his back into the playoffs... they're going to be 1st round wipeouts like the Lames down south.

Honestly I'd MUCH rather McDavid play 19 minutes a night... put up ~100 pts and have the bottom 6 scoring ~10 goals each on average... which would make for a much more balanced attack and make the Oilers a MUCH harder team to play against because you wouldn't have to focus just on stopping McD and Drai each game.

1st line 90 goals
2nd line 60 goals
3rd line 35 goals
4th line 25 goals

Top 6 dmen... 30 goals

Extras on the team (call ups for injuries etc).. 10 goals.

Team total = 250 goals

That's a rough guideline for how balanced the offense should be and any team scoring 250 goals should be able to get a playoff spot unless it's total shit on defense and in goal... which obviously is another area to address... but part of having a more balanced offense is not being hemmed into your end when the bottom 6 is dysfunctional offensively so having a better bottom 6 almost by default likely improves the GA slightly as well.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

When we started winning draft lotteries back in 2010, every pre-season pundits predict we would be contenders for the cup. The hype was was real.

Now, this summer, I've heard media pundits saying we have no chance to be a good team and have 0% to win the cup.

So, I expect we will be having a cup parade next year.

 

[TheNumber4]

After exchanging the anchor that was Lucic to the potential of a revived Neal. I feel pretty decent about this year. It'll all depend on Holland's flavor of riverboat gambles like Nygard, Haas, to a lesser extent Archibald etc etc. plus some AHL vets graduating to see where our forward core really ends up this year. But if a couple of those cheap pick ups hit, including Neal, we could very well be looking at a season where the Oilers have a balanced and effective offensive punch.

The D core however still looks as bare as it has ever looked. We'll need some development by Jones and some of the younger swedes to improve.... I'm less optimistic on this.

I also still believe in Kosko. And I think a year where he's the man after an offseason of training (post realizing what it takes in the NHL), could really see him take off.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Right now I'm feeling very pessimistic on the Oilers chances to come remotely close to sniffing a playoff spot. We simply have too many holes, too many question marks, and not enough quality players both on the high end and low end. I kind of always figured this year would be a rebuilding season in the wake of Chia and don't begrudge Holland for that fact.

My excitement level was extremely low, but it's starting to get a bit higher, we've had enough shake-up that I'm interested in how quite a few players will perform and which prospects can step up, though I could see that changing after the 20 game mark if we are flat out brutal, while I'm usually a ride or die individual sitting through every game even the blow-outs, I think I'm close to my breaking point for tolerating losing hockey.

My only 3 expectations going into next season is that we are a faster team, we will work harder than we did last season (more scrappy and quicker to loose pucks), and the PK will be better (I think our PK forwards were upgraded).