House of Cards

[Joey Hoser]

So if Rielly or Bolland got injured or someone even more important like Kessel or Phaneuf, do we continue saying, once we are healthy, everything will be fine?

Considering we're 10-4 with injuries, makes sense.

 

[wulfio*]

Of course I'm thrilled with the wins we're racking up but we have some serious issues with this team. We're extremely opportunistic, which is awesome but we can't keep playing the way we're playing. As the season continues, teams are going to tighten up a lot more and we won't have as many mistakes to capitalize on.

Will Kulemin and Fraser coming back change that? Maybe a little.

What do the Leafs need to make us feel confident the whole game?
Better d-zone system?

Stud defensive defenseman on the top pair which pushes everyone else down? (If so, who and how do we get them?)

Nothing, we're doomed! advanced stats geeks in their mommies basement will be vindicated. The house of cards is about to fall!!

 

[Mach85]

Reimer: .949
Bernier: .933

Barring an historic season, those two numbers WILL regress. This team will have to limit shots against to prevent giving up more goals, that's fact. Hopefully the high shot totals are more a product of playing with a lead so often than defensive deficiencies. If that's the case, the team will be able to handle the inevitable regression. We'll just have to wait and find out.

 

[JAMmer124]

Reimer: .949
Bernier: .933

Barring an historic season, those two numbers WILL regress. This team will have to limit shots against to prevent giving up more goals, that's fact. Hopefully the high shot totals are more a product of playing with a lead so often than defensive deficiencies. If that's the case, the team will be able to handle the inevitable regression. We'll just have to wait and find out.

.949 will certainly regress, but .933 may or may not, and if it does it likely won't by much. A SV% of .920 should be the minimum for our goalies. For example, 14 goalies with 20+ games last season put up a .920 or better, including our very own James Reimer. Bernier also put up a .920+ in 14 games.

.920+ goaltending will keep this team where it is, really. Assuming we give up an average 35 shots a game and our goalies save 92% of the shots, we give up 2.8 goals per game. Currently, we're scoring 3.36 goals per game. Last year, we scored 3.02 goals per game.

Even if our goaltending regresses a little, we'll be fine.

 

[ConnorTO]

go lEAFS GO GO LEAFS GO!

colorado sucks

 

[Warden of the North]

Dave Poulin said on the radio recently something along the lines of

"Would you rather be playing poorly and winning or playing good but losing?"

I know which option I choose....

 

[81Leafs50]

Of course I'm thrilled with the wins we're racking up but we have some serious issues with this team. We're extremely opportunistic, which is awesome but we can't keep playing the way we're playing. As the season continues, teams are going to tighten up a lot more and we won't have as many mistakes to capitalize on.

Will Kulemin and Fraser coming back change that? Maybe a little.

What do the Leafs need to make us feel confident the whole game?
Better d-zone system?

Stud defensive defenseman on the top pair which pushes everyone else down? (If so, who and how do we get them?)

People of Toronto and more importantly Leafs fans PLEASE calm down.

Look around the NHL.

The Bruins who are playing the Ducks tonight got their first shot on net with something like 3 minutes to go in the first period. Bruins finally tied the game late in the 2nd at 1-1. Early in the 3rd they are being outshot 16-8. They are being outshot 2-1. How many Bruins fans do you think are freaking out at home? NONE!

Now I am not saying that the Leafs are that good, but shots against is not a big deal.

Do not listen to the noise that is Toronto media. They just have nothing to talk about since the Leafs are winning so this being outshot thing is what they are clinging on too.

Leafs were badly outshot most games last season too.

Just like how Toronto media made Paul Ranger out to be a good d-man (WRONG on all accounts) they are also wrong about this.

The Leafs are not a house of cards, this is just how they play.

I agree that they need to play better defensively but did you see the SO in Edmonton?

Relax, take a breathe and look at the standings.

 

[Quares27]

People are overblowing this. The Leafs haven't been their best but they haven't been nearly as bad as boxscore watchers pretend they have.

Take last night for example... the Leafs were really horrible (I think we can all admit that) but it wasn't nearly as bad as the shots indicate. The shots were 43-22 for Calgary but the scoring chances were only 19-13. So they had 21 more shots but only 6 more scoring chances which really isn't that bad considering the Leafs were very far from their best and the Flames played very well. Like we were discussing yesterday in the GDT i'm sure 4 of those scoring chances were those 4 shots into the pad at once too which really weren't chances but would technically be classified as such. Take those away and then the chances were 15-13... not really that bad considering the off game.

Against Edmonton we were outshot 43-26 but we were actually outshooting them at 5v5 close and probably outchancing them as well. Their shot totals just got inflated because the game was already over halfway through the 2nd period.

Stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. If you didn't watch the Leafs-Oilers you'd think the Leafs got destroyed getting outshot by 17 and yet the Leafs had control of the entire game starting with the goal 1 minute in. Other fanbases will be quick to point out stats like they're the law because they didn't watch the game and have nothing else to base it on. Then combine that with Leafs hating and everything will get overblown. Leafs definitely haven't been their best so far this season but they haven't been THAT bad either and still haven't iced their best lineup at any point this season.

In terms of what the Leafs need to improve they need to commit less turnovers in all 3 zones and be better at getting the puck out of their own end.

 

[Backhandshelf81]

The shots were 43-22 for Calgary but the scoring chances were only 19-13.

FWIW, Carlyle was on FAN 590 today and said that by their own count (they keep an in-house record of scoring chance differential), the differential was 18-12.

He said that ideally they don't want to allow any more than 10 in a game, and they'll be looking to improve in that area.

He also noted, as you did, that turnovers are a big problem and they'll be working on minimizing those.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Why there is no house of cards for us.

Who wants to win the East anyways? The track record in the playoffs for the Eastern winner is abysmal. Yet alone a bad draft position. We have 2 goalies, so no danger there. We have forward depth. We will make the playoffs and if we win round 1 it will be a success. We have a chance with this team against Boston, the Eastern champ.
We can outphysical Pitts. and are very fast and mobile. With Gardiner,Reilly this defense has a dynamic few teams have, the rush from the backend.

No one is saying we will the cup this year, so why is everyone crying? This is a playoff team with an exciting combination of goaltending and offense. Carlyle has all year to teach them defense while Nonnis shops for more help. In the meantime we are winning.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Leafs have one of the better defensive units in the league (evidence is the super solid PK).

The Leafs' system is one that LIMITS good scoring chances, and cuts off shooting and passing lanes, and blocks shots.

That means that teams have the ability to take bad angle, and perimeter shots at will, which are very easy for the goaltenders to stop.

Then, once the Leafs DO get puck control, their forward corps is among the fastest in the league, meaning they rapidly turn the puck down-ice and the results are turning consistently into good scoring chances and goals, and consequently wins.

The Leafs aren't perfect, and certainly other teams get a few good chances themselves when the odd mistake is made. But that's only natural.

The fact that the Leafs are 10-4-0 is pretty indicative that we're doing something right.

People are just getting scammed by statistics that really, are still fledgling. And statistical data/analysis has been and will always be only part of a system to analyze and predict outcomes.

You people who love statistics so much should read: "The Signal and the Noise"

It's a powerful book.

 

[SprDaVE]

FWIW, Carlyle was on FAN 590 today and said that by their own count (they keep an in-house record of scoring chance differential), the differential was 18-12.

He said that ideally they don't want to allow any more than 10 in a game, and they'll be looking to improve in that area.

He also noted, as you did, that turnovers are a big problem and they'll be working on minimizing those.

I'm glad the coach isn't delusional about the teams play.

We have played well at times and most games but there have been a lot of breakdowns. If Carlyle believes it's only a matter of time before it really hurts us in the standings, I really hope the players smarten up themselves.

Fans say that teams tighten up more as the season goes a long. Let's hope we can be one of those teams.

 

[Tarmore]

There is a coaching problem on this team. 10-4 is a nice start but lets face it, if not for our goaltending, It would be closer to .500.

Our breakouts are terrible, it's far too easy to pressure our D and get them to cough the puck, it is far too easy to get quality shots against our goaltenders, it is far too easy to cycle against them.

We HAVE to pay better attention in our own zone. Coaching is a problem.

Simple as that.

Love the clutch goalscoring and dependable goaltending though..

Ok I agree with your first point goal tending has definitely helped our record and without it we would have a worse record, but couldn't you say that about any top team in the league ?

The rest of the post other that last line is so wrong

I have bee watching the Leafs since the late 70s and closely watching since the 80's ans this is by far and away the most consistently dangerous Toronto team I have ever watched counter attacking. They are just deadly.

Their team speed mostly at forward allows them to potentially any turn over into a scoring chance. They don't turn everyone into but more than their fair share!

Coaching is NOTthe problem 'Simple as that.'

There are times when their breakout is not crisp and clean but no team ever is. Lets at least pretend to be a little realistic here...

If it were 'far too easy to pressure our D and get them to cough the puck, it is far too easy to get quality shots against our goaltenders, it is far too easy to cycle against them' Why do we not give up more goals? If it's so easy even the Edmonton's of the League would be filling the nets nightly! I don't care who you have in net it you giving up a ton of truly quality scoring chances they will be giving up a hell of a lot more goals a game than the Leafs are. Sure a hot goalie will get you a game here and there but these things even out and over 14 games you should start seeing some trends here.

 

[Tarmore]

I'm glad the coach isn't delusional about the teams play.

We have played well at times and most games but there have been a lot of breakdowns. If Carlyle believes it's only a matter of time before it really hurts us in the standings, I really hope the players smarten up themselves.

Fans say that teams tighten up more as the season goes a long. Let's hope we can be one of those teams.

We have a good coach and as a result if the Leafs were 14-0 Carlyle would still say they have things to work on. Good coaches always do.

Not to say the Leafs don't have their weaknesses, because they do. Just saying if the coach says anything else he isn't really doing his job.

 

[coladin]

It is fascinating to me how many people said back then how well the leafs were not playing regardless of the standings. I have to commend sokocanuck, Mach85 and Pi for their assessments. Bang on and it just shows how knowledgeable Leafs fans are and how a lot of them know their hockey.

I think the House of Cards analogy was bang on and sometimes, as hard as it is when your team is winning, a lot of hockey fans know their stuff! Of course this doesn't mean that the season is doomed, but it may force some of the players who are making the same mistakes, same plays over and over, to listen to the coaching staff more. A lot of times winning masks bad habits and it will be a dogfight to the end in the East.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

I think the House of Cards analogy was bang on and sometimes, as hard as it is when your team is winning, a lot of hockey fans know their stuff! Of course this doesn't mean that the season is doomed, but it may force some of the players who are making the same mistakes, same plays over and over, to listen to the coaching staff more. A lot of times winning masks bad habits and it will be a dogfight to the end in the East.

There have been many opportunities for push back from the team after awful games... and nothing.