Hot take: Matt Murray will determine how far the Pens go this season

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by cassius, Dec 20, 2018.

  1. Peat

    Peat Registered User

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    That's an unnecessarily heated way of pursuing the argument. Don't be that guy.

    The doubts about DeSmith have nothing to do with "Murray being our guy" or being a loyalist and trying, even accidentally, to turn this into a rerun of MAF vs Murray and it all being bias should be a criminal offence.

    Its all about the small sample size, and the fact that most NHL goaltenders who start hot do regress back down sooner or later, and the small number of guys who crack NHL starting roles that late when they're that small. The odds that he's going to go on and be a regular .924 starter aren't great.

    If anyone does have a cast iron argument for why DeSmith's definitely going to have the sustained ceiling where we wouldn't have to have Murray being Murray to win playoffs, that'd be great. But the reality is that no such argument will exist until he's demonstrated that ceiling. It never does.
     
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  2. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 Go Knights Go

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    The big thing with DeSmith is that we have no idea of what he actually is in the NHL, because it's dumb to draw conclusions based on such a small sample size. The only thing I'm confident in is that he's not as good as his numbers suggest. I know JR doesn't operate like this, but I'd love to see DeSmith get an extension right now and the Penguins look to move Jarry. I don't think they will do that, I think they're content with letting DeSmith walk as a free agent, but that's what I'd want to do.
     
  3. Coach Travis

    Coach Travis Back2Back!!!

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    Tepid Take: We are in the dark ages of evaluating goaltending, and metrics such as goals against have less to do with goaltender performance and more to do with variables such as shooter execution and defender shot disruption.
     
  4. cheesedanish87

    cheesedanish87 Registered User

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    I have no confidence at all in Murray.

    Everybody knows about his glove hand, but he has other issues as well.

    Pucks always go through him, those 2 pucks that went through him against the Caps is something that happens all the time with him.

    His first 2 years in the league he would always read plays really well and make a hard save look easy because he would read the play and be in perfect position.

    Now its completely different, he doesn't read the play, so now hes flopping all over the place trying to stop the puck like MAF used to play, but hes no where near as athletic as MAF.

    I have no idea what Desmith is, but i know hes the Pens best option right now.
     
  5. Will Hunting

    Will Hunting Immortal Adams

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    Goaltending is super important but is the least of my worries. If Murray fails, there is still DeSmith or vice versa. Odds are in Pens favor when it comes to goaltending, but of course it´s not guaranteed. My bigger concern is the defense and what JR does with it. Then Malkin and Kessel. If these things work, then we have a great chance. But so far, goaltending is one of the biggest reasons why the Pens are back in business this year. Thanks to DeSmith.
     
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  6. Peat

    Peat Registered User

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    Its not solely on DeSmith. The team is simply giving up less good chances on him vs what they give up with Murray on. Its weird and I'd love to say it explained, but its definitely happening and its part of the difference.

    Also - tiny sample - but the last couple of games, they gave Murray the DeSmith treatment and he responded with very similar numbers to DeSmith. We'll see how both things continue.
     
  7. Tom Hanks

    Tom Hanks Mistakes brought to you by my iPhone.

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    While the first part is true, De Smith’s HDSV% is still well above Murray’s (.864 vs .733).

    De Smith is 6th in the league in that stat and Murray is 45th which is last (based on minimum 650 minutes).

    Lots of time to turn it around though for Murray. Always good to have 2 good goalies.
     
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  8. Riikolas Revenge

    Riikolas Revenge Registered User

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    While the defense has certainly improved in front of him recently, these last few games Murray's just playing better/differently in my eyes. He's faster and more confident on HDCA's. Those saves in OT were brilliant. More aggressive covering pucks and more concentration when taking shots to his weaker areas. He's shortened his reaction time lately.

    Plus he had puck luck with Pettersson clearing the line and the puck squeaking through him and hitting the post on another chance.

    If Murray wants his to lock his job back down he has to continue playing at this standard, otherwise DeSmith will leave the coaching staff no choice.
     
  9. EightyOne

    EightyOne Here we ****ing go, again!

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    Every game every goalie needs to fight for their job. Nature of the position.
     
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  10. Beau Knows

    Beau Knows Captain Canada

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    Hockey in general is just so hard to evaluate with stats. Sports like Baseball, Football and even Basketball are far better suited for that type of evaluation.
     
  11. Honour Over Glory

    Honour Over Glory Registered User

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    Criticized Murray a lot thinking he was just done.

    I'm 100% happy to be wrong if he continues this play and is back to the elite goalie we knew he could be and has been for some stretches of his career.
     
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  12. Peat

    Peat Registered User

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    Absolutely DeSmith had performed better with the shots he's faced and Murray hasn't performed well enough. Just that these are not the only factors involved.
     
  13. DegenX

    DegenX ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Murray is trending up ... going in to the game in DC his Sv% was .883. Today it's .900.
     
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  14. Ragamuffin Gunner

    Ragamuffin Gunner Lost in the Flood

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    No team can really overcome bad goaltending. Glad MM has had a great week, hopefully he can continue it for the rest of the season.
     
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  15. CrosbyMalkin

    CrosbyMalkin Registered User

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    Fact! If Murray plays at his top form of his first 2 years the Pens can beat any team and be a top contender for the Cup. Last years version of Murray doesn’t cut it. We played the Cup champs close and could of beat them but it makes it much more harder if your goalie is getting outplayed like Murray did by a large margin in that series. It happens to the best of them though. Heck just before that series the Caps had benched Holtby for several games and just went back to him out of desperation.
     
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  16. CrosbyMalkin

    CrosbyMalkin Registered User

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    Exactly, we go as far as Murray takes us. DeSmith is doing a fine job and if everyone was playing well going into the playoffs we could contend with him in net but Murray at his best has led us to 2 Cups and if playing well he should be the #1. Just like when the Caps benched Holtby and only went back to him at the verge of elimination. We see how that turned out. I think we have A similar goalie situation here.

    Murray is looking back on track and let’s hope he sustains it. The biggest worry I always have with Murray is his health. Needs to get in the weight room.
     
  17. vikingGoalie

    vikingGoalie Registered User

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    this last game against the canes was the best Murray has looked in a loooong time. The caps game I thought he got results but really had some issues with movement and puck going through him. He also made himself look small at times against the Cap by leaning to far forward when down. Next game. He looks huge in net this is far and away the most confident we've seen Murray since before last season. Hope he keeps it up.

    I also was a bit meh about not giving DeSmith the nod against the Canes. Between the two I thought DeSmith's performance against the wild surpassed murray's by a pretty decent margin. Hopefully these two guys push each other all season and I still think we'd be idiots to not extend DeSmith.
     
  18. cassius

    cassius Registered User

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    Since I started this thread, Matt Murray has been the best goalie in the NHL. Just an amazing run by him..
     
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  19. CrosbyMalkin

    CrosbyMalkin Registered User

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    I always believed Murray is the key to the playoffs. Even last year if he played like he did the first two Cup runs which is just how he is playing now we would of beat the Caps and most likely won our 3rd Cup.

    Bottom line is if Murray is healthy and on his game the Pens are the Cup favorites. Letang makes it that much easier and that was proven from the dominance of the first Cup team of the back to back compared to the second Cup team that won without Letang. We still won it but it was an all out war.
     
  20. Tender Rip

    Tender Rip Well balanced genius. Like, really smart.

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    Sad panda that one cannot “dislike” posts or give them and the poster downer ratings or some such.

    But man, you suck :)!
     
  21. CanadianPensFan1

    CanadianPensFan1 Registered User

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    To be fair ..while MM certainly wasnt playing well, the rest of the team was also hot garbage in every way.

    It's not a coincidence that, now the whole team is playing well with a concerted effort on team D, that Murrays numbers are better. Include the fact that Murray is absolutely playing better .. it a good recipe for success.
     
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  22. cheesedanish87

    cheesedanish87 Registered User

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    I still have the same opinion.

    Hes been great since hes been back, but i'm not going to change my opinion based on 7 games.

    But i'd love to eat crow and see Murray play well for the rest of the year.
     
  23. Coach Travis

    Coach Travis Back2Back!!!

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    I've been saying all season that Matt Murray has done about as good as can be expected all season (except for maybe parts of November where he was physically ailing). People want to point at SV% like .900 is some magic number that happens in a vacuum if you're doing your job but early in the season our D was ****. And against the teams that Matt was starting against, they especially knew how to tear that D apart. There was no insulating and, even worse, guys were either going uncontested in front if not completely forgotten about. Matt also had some seriously bad luck.
    1. JJ tries to block a shot about 8 feet in front of MM, puck deflects wide, springs off the dasher right onto Vrana's stick at the side the net
    2. Djoos slap-pass to Ovechkin who deflects the puck in with no one even looking at him
    3. Geno puts a pass onto the stick of Oshie who goes in all alone with all the time in the world
    4. Oshie deflects a crossbar level shot five-hole Dumo right behind Oshie but not actually touching him
    5. Tatar shoots on a 2-on-1, Maatta attempts block but the puck directly to Gallagher back-door
    6. Murray stops Byron but Dumo, Letang and Malkin all go behind the net and Bryon gets the puck back in front all alone and roofs it
    7. Habs have a shorthanded 2-on-1, Malkin's controller disconnects as Armia bats a pass out of the air top corner
    8. Tavares deflects a Mitch Marner shot while Crosby, Hornqvist and JJ are all standing near him but no one ties up his stick
    9. Shorthanded 2-on-1. Malkin's controller disconnects again. Kapanen feeds Marleau who has enough time to fake forehand and then go backhand.
    10. Marner shoots from the point on the PP, Maatta partially blocks, puck deflects off dasher out the other side to Reilly backdoor
    11. 2-on-2 rush shorthanded, Hyman pulls up and shoots, Murray makes the save, Hornqvist racing back knocks in the rebound off his hip
    Any one of those goals on their own are just par for the course in hockey but that's only from 3 games. And in such a small sample size any single game where your team ****s the bed defensively puts a huge impact on things like SV% and GAA.
     
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  24. Dread Pirate Roberts

    Dread Pirate Roberts Registered User

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    Murray was good in both his rookie years. This year for him basically consists of one cold streak and one hot streak, but when you add all the numbers together they come out above average. So you're no going to change your opinion based on 7 games out of 18, but you're totally okay with basing your opinion on one down season out of 4?

    Whatever floats your boat, I guess.
     
  25. cassius

    cassius Registered User

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    Not to mention - the whole 2 Stanley Cup thing too..
     
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