Rumor: Hornqvist to Florida for Matheson

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Big Friggin Dummy

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Feb 22, 2019
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I mean, I'm not going to base evaluations on "non-zero chances" of things.

There was a non-zero chance of JJ becoming a stout defensive stalwart for the Pens, but the odds were pretty terrible.



Right, but even the zone exit data didn't prove anything close to true. Nobody thinks that when JJ gets the puck that it's getting out of the zone efficiently.

Outproducing JJ isn't really an accomplishment.
There was a zero percent chance JJ would be anything other than miserable, as his decade-plus long career showed at the time, and has shown since.

The only people in the world who thought Jack Johnson would be an NHL-caliber hockey player were, and continue to be, the GM and coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins, sadly.
 

mpp9

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Dec 5, 2010
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I have no issue with him on the 3rd line but I agree Hornqvist is on a downward slide, and is less likely to age gracefully, and if you’re gonna trade him you’re not gonna get an equal but younger player in return. It will be a step down in on-ice impact as a tradeoff. Problem is this deal might not even save us any money and we’re committed for 6 years to a guy that was getting scratched and played at forward this year. Huge risk.

Now we’ve got a hole on the 3rd line and still need to do something with Johnson. And Matheson doesn’t really fill a need IMO, unless Johnson goes which seems less and less likely.

A guy who can skate the puck out of his end is absolutely needed.
 

Fordy

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May 28, 2008
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For sure, but it's about taking steps in the right direction. We're a year late right now, in firing JR and Sully and getting new eyes/direction for this team. We've already committed to another season with those two manning the ship, so that'll probably two more wasted years if we're being honest because JJ is still here and will play, and as it stands our already flawed 3rd line lost Hornqvist. McCann's back, and I hope he'll be the 3LW, but I'm sure he'll be the 3C to similarly disappointing results. Poulin is coming out of Junior and I'd be lying if I said I expected him to get more than a 9 game stint, if that, assuming he doesn't absolutely blow the doors wide open in camp/pre-season a la Marino.

If Stevens didn't gift wrap Marino to JR, this team would be in baaaaaaaad shape.
well 10 weeks or so at least. team tends to do well once they finally shitcan the outdated voices
 

BlindWillyMcHurt

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It would be AWFULLY awkward if it fell through and they all just collectively shrugged. At this point you kinda have to trade the guy.
 

66-30-33

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Jan 24, 2006
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If Stevens didn't gift wrap Marino to JR, this team would be in baaaaaaaad shape.

You could use that card but I rather not think of it that way, it happened so it was going to happen regardless. I'd prefer living in this reality vs a reality without Marino to Pens for a 6th in it, but maybe I may take a peek into that reality and see wtf happens in it.
 

Gurglesons

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I mean, I'm not going to base evaluations on "non-zero chances" of things.

There was a non-zero chance of JJ becoming a stout defensive stalwart for the Pens, but the odds were pretty terrible.



Right, but even the zone exit data didn't prove anything close to true. Nobody thinks that when JJ gets the puck that it's getting out of the zone efficiently.

Outproducing JJ isn't really an accomplishment.

K. Over the last three seasons Matheson has as many ES goals as Barrie, Dumba and OEL.

JJ's zone exit / entires data was much lower than Matheson's. Some Penguin blogger made a comment about that without knowning what they were talking about. He was close to an average player in terms of zone exit / entries and they extrapolated it over a 3 year period.
 

Headshot77

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Feb 15, 2015
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Sid, Geno, Letang.


Get a grip on reality. Hornqvist was always being dealt, and his NTC and value as an asset meant the return was never going to be a "holy shit, we fleeced 'em" deal. Partly due to his NTC, partly due to the fact that he's simply not as good a player as so many people desperately wish.

Do I wish Hornqvist got us a guy like Dougie Hamilton? Sure, but that's absurd. He's a 34 year old grinder/PP specialist making ~$5.5 million dollars with injury/durability concerns and he's got full command over where he ends up. You're not getting value for that kind of asset regardless of how many shirtless volleyball gifs you send the other GM.
In this NHL, 20 goals, 50 points, ability to drive play, and grit is worth 5 million. Hornqvist is only slightly overpaid and 3 years is not long. The reason this trade sucks is because Hornqvist definitely had more value than this.
 

Randy Butternubs

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@Gurglesons - I typically don't like when people have definitive opinions when we control nothing, but you are harping on @Honour Over Glory pretty hard when he seems to be ahead of the curve on this one.

I absolutely DESPISE the idea of "I WAS FIRST TO SAY ______! I'M THE MOST RIGHT!" It's such a twitter mentality. But I have to tip my cap because he was saying this stuff before anyone else. And it's not like he says it, pisses off with no evidence. He at least provides data, evidence, and opinion.

And to equally give you credit for the same thing. You are a VERY definitive mindset poster down to the infamous Jake for Bennett deal. Pens having to add. And you said "Hey.. i was wrong so be it." and you did it with respect and owned it. I like that. But don't harp on other users because if there is one thing... you both have very definitive mindsets when it comes to opinions.

I'm only on page 33 right now, so maybe it's already been addressed. But there's been plenty of posters who saw Hornqvist being traded -- if he'd waive his clause.
 

Big Friggin Dummy

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Feb 22, 2019
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If this all falls through, I fully expect to be back here in a few days discussing the merits of the next Hornqvist or Rust deal for some guy everyone's sure to hate without seeing a minute of him playing.

Because that's what's going to happen. One of those two are being dealt, and the return isn't going to make anyone happy from the standpoint of the guy coming in and immediately making a big splash.

Even if this deal ends up dead in the water, steel yourselves for the next one--because it is absolutely coming.
 

Dipsy Doodle

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May 28, 2006
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There was a zero percent chance JJ would be anything other than miserable, as his decade-plus long career showed at the time, and has shown since.

The only people in the world who thought Jack Johnson would be an NHL-caliber hockey player were, and continue to be, the GM and coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins, sadly.

There was an analytics-based argument for JJ that suggested he would help with zone exits, I shit you not.

:laugh::whine:
 

SEALBound

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Jun 13, 2010
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He could have signed back here.

To be fair, JR DID try to get him back, lol!



I don't what I feel...maybe a little relief but I was warming up to the prospect of Matheson.

Now...if this doesn't go through...do they try something else? JJ+ZAR for Matheson @$4mil?

That said...here's something for people to chew on:

JR said he shopped Horny and wasn't getting the return but then they do pull the trigger on this. That means, logically, this is the BEST return JR found for Horny. If this deal doesn't go through because the contract can't be insured, that will plummet Horny's value or at the very least, give a darn good amount of leverage to the other GM. If this was a cap clearing move...we may be SOL.

Now keeping Horny may be the better overall option at this time vs Matheson but it terrifies me that if it's not Matheson...who does JR go after next?

More ideally, send JJ out to clear space and be done with it.
 
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Big Friggin Dummy

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Feb 22, 2019
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In this NHL, 20 goals, 50 points, ability to drive play, and grit is worth 5 million. Hornqvist is only slightly overpaid and 3 years is not long. The reason this trade sucks is because Hornqvist definitely had more value than this.
Hornqvist doesn't drive play. He never has, and never will. And the fact that this deal (may have) happened is evidence that Hornqvist is overrated around these parts.

If Hornqvist was as valuable an asset as people claim, I'm sure we'd have better options than some boom or bust dude with an awful contract. Much like Kessel and his NTC, the return is going to annoy everyone, but something significant needs to change and the options right now are Hornqvist, Rust, Dumo and Letang. Anyone not picking Hornqvist out of those guys as the player to be dealt is letting their emotions cloud their judgement.
 
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