Value of: Hornqvist for a cheaper bottom-6 player

[Djp]

People also need to realize that Hornqvist isn't a cap dump. He put up 30 points in the abbreviated season while providing a unique skillset to the team. He is a pain in the ass to play against and a "playoff warrior". I think NHL GMs would take his contract on without much hesitation in non-covid times.

I have really good swamp land to sell you..interested?

In a flat cap, a player in decline , making above $5M has negative value.

 

[Jerkbait]

Dude, gives this a rest. Horny's contract moving forward might be the worst to move on the Pens roster. Three years at 5.3 million for a guy that is injured quite a bit. I'm a fan of his, but no team is going to do this. You are going to get back an equally bad contract, not one that is a friendly 2.5-3.5 type of deal. Get younger and get cap ... how about trading Malkin.

Absolutely incorrect. Hornqvist will be quite easy to move sboukd he decide he wants to go... lots of teams would enjoy his style for a cup run ..

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hornqvist for Abdelkader. Same term but Pittsburgh saves 1M in cap.

This isn't a deal DET should be making, though on the surface it's tempting.


Here's why:


1. PH is higher end 3rd liner now (hasn't cracked 50 pts on a loaded Pens team since '15-'16).

2. He's slow

3. Injury prone...missed 17.4% of teams last 316 possible reg. season gp.

4. He's below average defensively.

5. Doesn't PK iirc

6. Is aging (turns 34 on 1-1-21 @ start of new season)

7. Wings should not be helping the Pens barring overpayment**.

8. **while the value is fair, the (last 4 yrs) .503 pts/gp avg. will go down on a lottery team. So from a 41pt/82gp down to 25-30pts/82gp as he won't be on PP1 & spot duty on PP2.

9. Lack of good 2C/3C on Wings also hurts potential 5on5 production.

10. That being said, even if he manages 30-35pts/82gp (the next THREE years), which is unlikely, whatever he does produce just reduces our chances at a higher pick in '21/'22/'23 drafts == No Thanks!!

11. We can bury Abby in GR as a player/mentor til he gets tired of riding the bus.

12. The thought of a '09 Angry Bird on our beloved Wings makes this Tomcat angry.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If the objective is to clear cap you'd clear 3.5 million by buying him out

 

[PensandCaps]

Why would Pittsburgh be the ones adding here.... Jost is debatable to even be an NHL player at this point.



Anyway, Horny contract is going to be very hard to move in the current scope of things. On a 1 year term, you probably get some interest. But a 33 year old set to make North of 5M for 3 more years when already showing a couple signs of decline, that contract is only going to get worse while already looking less then ideal.

How? Hornqvist is easily worth his contract.

The main issue with him is staying healthy, Not his caliber of play, or production.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I have really good swamp land to sell you..interested?

In a flat cap, a player in decline , making above $5M has negative value.

In decline does not equal being put on the 3rd line. Sid won't play with him, and it's not as if his legs are the problem, he's always been this way. He's just not what Sid wants since he got here. Hornqvist has never been a fast player.

So what you're trying to sell here is negative value. Stick him on one of the top 2 lines and he's still the same guy. A 40/50+ point guy and around 20 goals. That doesn't scream decline more than improperly used. That's why we want him gone 'cause his cost effectiveness isn't a 3rd line player to get his full value out of him playing with non fits. Have you ever watched him play?

Ask any Pens fan. He should be up with Sid because it works, but Sid isn't having it, even if it does work. For years.

5.0 is too much for what he brings on the 3rd...He's still a top six winger.

 

[Djp]

How? Hornqvist is easily worth his contract.

The main issue with him is staying healthy, Not his caliber of play, or production.

No he isn’t worth his contract. The ROI is not worth it.

Retain 50% you might get something for him.

If he had just 1 yr left you could move him easier. But having 3 yrs is an issue for many teams planning future cap plans.

 

[Djp]

In decline does not equal being put on the 3rd line. Sid won't play with him, and it's not as if his legs are the problem, he's always been this way. He's just not what Sid wants since he got here. Hornqvist has never been a fast player.

So what you're trying to sell here is negative value. Stick him on one of the top 2 lines and he's still the same guy. A 40/50+ point guy and around 20 goals. That doesn't scream decline more than improperly used. That's why we want him gone 'cause his cost effectiveness isn't a 3rd line player to get his full value out of him playing with non fits. Have you ever watched him play?

Ask any Pens fan. He should be up with Sid because it works, but Sid isn't having it, even if it does work. For years.

5.0 is too much for what he brings on the 3rd...He's still a top six winger.

Playing anyone with a very good center will elevate their game.

I could put an ELC/bridge player making a 1/3 of ehat he makes putting up similar numbers.

Who has $6M cap space for him? Only about 8 teams, but they wouldn’t want him on the team in future years because they need space to pay younger p,ayers

 

[FameFlame069]

I’d be down for Kassian for Hornqvist I think. He’s the type of guy that would excel with Mcdavid and the blue collar type of player this fan base is obsessed with.

What about Kassian for Hornqvist at 4.8m.
Pens hold back 500k and I’d take the risk with the older player only having to add 1.6m on the cap.

How about a trade with the Flames? Russell at 3M for your 3rd back?

 

[Empoleon8771]

This isn't a deal DET should be making, though on the surface it's tempting.


Here's why:


1. PH is higher end 3rd liner now (hasn't cracked 50 pts on a loaded Pens team since '15-'16).

2. He's slow

3. Injury prone...missed 17.4% of teams last 316 possible reg. season gp.

4. He's below average defensively.

5. Doesn't PK iirc

6. Is aging (turns 34 on 1-1-21 @ start of new season)

7. Wings should not be helping the Pens barring overpayment**.

8. **while the value is fair, the (last 4 yrs) .503 pts/gp avg. will go down on a lottery team. So from a 41pt/82gp down to 25-30pts/82gp as he won't be on PP1 & spot duty on PP2.

9. Lack of good 2C/3C on Wings also hurts potential 5on5 production.

10. That being said, even if he manages 30-35pts/82gp (the next THREE years), which is unlikely, whatever he does produce just reduces our chances at a higher pick in '21/'22/'23 drafts == No Thanks!!

11. We can bury Abby in GR as a player/mentor til he gets tired of riding the bus.

12. The thought of a '09 Angry Bird on our beloved Wings makes this Tomcat angry.

Well the bolded is just a load of nonsense.

Dude, Abdelkader for Hornqvist is such a monstrously bad deal for Pittsburgh that I have no clue what kind of mental gymnastics you have to perform to say no from a Detroit POV. The value isn't "fair", it's an abortion of a proposal. There is just a ton of stuff you listed that is flat out wrong:

1. Hornqvist has 162 points in 261 games in the last 4 years. That's a pace of 51 points per 82 games. He's still a top-6 forward, he's just injury prone. He's no less productive now than he has been over his entire career, his career pace and his pace over the last 4 years are the exact same.
2. Hornqvist is not below average defensively.
3. I half agree with the point that Hornqvist is "slow", but I'm assuming you're exaggerating it based on the rest of your post. He's a mediocre skater, he's not someone like Lucic.
4. "The Wings shouldn't be helping the Penguins baring an overpayment" you're literally getting a top-6 winger for one of the worst contracts in all of hockey. How the hell is that not an "overpayment"?
5. Arbitrarily bumping Hornqvist 20-25 points by going from Pittsburgh to Detroit is totally baseless. He mostly plays on the Penguins 3rd line at this point. He's a 40 point player at minimum on every team in hockey. You have literally no basis to say that him being a 30 point player for the rest of his career is "unlikely".

 

[PensandCaps]

No he isn’t worth his contract. The ROI is not worth it.

Retain 50% you might get something for him.

If he had just 1 yr left you could move him easier. But having 3 yrs is an issue for many teams planning future cap plans.

You don't know what you're talking about dude.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Well the bolded is just a load of nonsense.

Dude, Abdelkader for Hornqvist is such a monstrously bad deal for Pittsburgh that I have no clue what kind of mental gymnastics you have to perform to say no from a Detroit POV. The value isn't "fair", it's an abortion of a proposal. There is just a ton of stuff you listed that is flat out wrong:

1. Hornqvist has 162 points in 261 games in the last 4 years. That's a pace of 51 points per 82 games. He's still a top-6 forward, he's just injury prone. He's no less productive now than he has been over his entire career, his career pace and his pace over the last 4 years are the exact same.
2. Hornqvist is not below average defensively.
3. I half agree with the point that Hornqvist is "slow", but I'm assuming you're exaggerating it based on the rest of your post. He's a mediocre skater, he's not someone like Lucic.
4. "The Wings shouldn't be helping the Penguins baring an overpayment" you're literally getting a top-6 winger for one of the worst contracts in all of hockey. How the hell is that not an "overpayment"?
5. Arbitrarily bumping Hornqvist 20-25 points by going from Pittsburgh to Detroit is totally baseless. He mostly plays on the Penguins 3rd line at this point. He's a 40 point player at minimum on every team in hockey. You have literally no basis to say that him being a 30 point player for the rest of his career is "unlikely".

I don't know what gp# I used to calculate the p/gp #'s, but obviously I hit "3" not "2" at the beginning, so my mistake. (Cat was in my face/on computer desk).

He's not Lucic slow, but he is slow by Red Wings standards Top6/9 etc.

He's below avg. to avg. at best defensively. He doesn't PK iirc.

The fact that he's produced (on pace for, but not actually hit 50pts since 15-16) some pts/season=injury prone, aging etc.

So he goes from a loaded Pens team & PP1 ( more often than PP2), to a lottery team with no real 2C & 3C + will hurt his 5on5 & PP production = At least 10-15 pts off his (paced for) avg.= ~30-35pts, possibly 40 in a "good" year. Which means the more he produces, the worse chance% at better draft picks in a parity league. == No thanks. (you further proved my point that we shouldn't do the trade)

We can bury Abby/Nielsen as mentor in GR. Nielsen would probably go LTIR. Abby rides the bus for 1+ yrs then retires.;

 

[OCPenguin]

Absolutely incorrect. Hornqvist will be quite easy to move sboukd he decide he wants to go... lots of teams would enjoy his style for a cup run ..

Not at that cap hit and his history of being injured.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Is Hornqvist as slow as molasses in January ?

If he's average speed, I wouldn't be against Horqvist for Byron.

 

[Richard88]

Would Pittsburgh consider retaining, say $1m on this contract?

Hornqvist at $4.3m would be a lot easier to move.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Byron was the first name that came to mind. One of the fastest players in the league and while not as good as PH, is cheaper.

I could see this being good for both teams.

 

[Dr Quincy]

How? Hornqvist is easily worth his contract.

The main issue with him is staying healthy, Not his caliber of play, or production.

The most important ability is AVAILability.

 

[780il]

How about a trade with the Flames? Russell at 3M for your 3rd back?

Russell only makes 1.5 in real money. Shouldn’t be too hard to move the full cap hit.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Would Pittsburgh consider retaining, say $1m on this contract?

Hornqvist at $4.3m would be a lot easier to move.

They're already retaining on Bjugstad. Not sure how happy they'd be having to retain on another player who isn't even on their roster.

 

[Richard88]

They're already retaining on Bjugstad. Not sure how happy they'd be having to retain on another player who isn't even on their roster.

Let's say hypothetically that they moved Hornqvist ($1m retained) for Compher (just as an example, not a proposal)...

• To Col: Hornqvist ($4.3m x 3 years)
• To Pit: Compher ($3.5m x 3 years) + $1m retention on Hornqvist.

Pittsburgh would get a comparable ~0.5ppg forward who is younger and faster, at essentially a $4.5m caphit, saving $800k in the process.

Colorado would get an injury-prone but slightly more productive forward (~50 point pace last 4 years) who plays a playoff-style game, at a $4.3m caphit; which is a small upgrade in production and experience for $800k more.

Now, I'm certainly NOT saying that I think Colorado should be trading for a soon-to-be 34 year old Hornqvist. This is just an example of the sort of trade with retention that Pittsburgh could look to make to get a useful player back while also getting out of Hornqvist's contract (well, most of it anyways).

 

[FameFlame069]

Russell only makes 1.5 in real money. Shouldn’t be too hard to move the full cap hit.

I thought he was owed 2M, cap hit 4M? Retaining 1M would be 500K cash and 1M cap, no? But in other trades with no retention you wouldn't get a 3rd back in trade, just trying to return the Neal favor.


Checked capfriendly and you're right, sorry. *edit*

 

[Headshot77]

I think if Hornqvist was a UFA he would probably get about 3 years, 4 million. So he is about 1 million overpaid. He is not a negative value asset, but he would certainly be worth in trade equity if he had a sweetheart deal. Like, Hornqvist @ 50% (2.65) is probably worth a high 2nd round pick or close-to-NHL prospect. Hornqvist @ the full cap hit is probably worth, like Emp said, a cheaper but slightly less dynamic NHL player.

 

[66-30-33]

Let's say hypothetically that they moved Hornqvist ($1m retained) for Compher (just as an example, not a proposal)...

• To Col: Hornqvist ($4.3m x 3 years)
• To Pit: Compher ($3.5m x 3 years) + $1m retention on Hornqvist.

Pittsburgh would get a comparable ~0.5ppg forward who is younger and faster, at essentially a $4.5m caphit, saving $800k in the process.

Colorado would get an injury-prone but slightly more productive forward (~50 point pace last 4 years) who plays a playoff-style game, at a $4.3m caphit; which is a small upgrade in production and experience for $800k more.

Now, I'm certainly NOT saying that I think Colorado should be trading for a soon-to-be 34 year old Hornqvist. This is just an example of the sort of trade with retention that Pittsburgh could look to make to get a useful player back while also getting out of Hornqvist's contract (well, most of it anyways).

I'm guessing you're going to see a lot of trades with retention for a while.

 

[McDNicks17]

Athanasiou and something for Hornqvist and McCann?

 

[SomeDude]

Hornqvist's body may be breaking down on him, but I'd take another Hornqvist before trading the one we have. The Pens already have one of the softest rosters in the league with him.