Post-Game Talk: Hollandaise

[Faelko]

Yeah
He'll pot some. Just in his vanilla way. Nothing wrong with Alex.
I'd have Zac above him though.

Yep, Kassian will outscore him playing on that top line. Looks like Neal will get his PP minutes so I think he’ll outscore him as well.

Chiasson will be closer to 6th-7th

 

[SwedishFire]

Yep, Kassian will outscore him playing on that top line. Looks like Neal will get his PP minutes so I think he’ll outscore him as well.

Chiasson will be closer to 6th-7th

The one who have him 4th on the team goalscoring will be utterly dissapointed...
My guess is order is McDavid (too fast to not create goals), Draisaitl, Neal, Nuge, Kassian, Nygård, Nurse, Jurco, Klefbom, Haas, Chiasson. Bear, Persson, Sheahan, Bouchard, Benning, Khaira, Archibald, P Russell.

11th best on the team. I think 10 goals is a fair number.

 

[foshizzle]

Inconsistent sure, but never? He scored most of his goals last season by using his size and winning puck battles. He has enough skill and a pretty decent shot that he is still an effective bottom 6 player. Not an elite bottom 6er, but a useful one.

Hell, you can go back and watch the highlights from the Vancouver game and watch him make a power move to push off Edler on the PP to get himself open for a back door pass that Markstrom absolutely robbed him on after he got a pretty solid shot off considering the pass was in his feet.

It is not consistent, hence why he hasn’t been able to stick with a team.

 

[McFlyingV]

It is not consistent, hence why he hasn’t been able to stick with a team.

I thought I agreed that he was inconsistent in using his body, but you said he never uses his body which isn't true. Say what you want about him, but he's averaged 15G and 29P per 82 GP over his career while bouncing between mostly bottom 6 roles and some top 6 time. At worst he's a good 4th liner with that kind of production even if his physical play is inconsistent.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I thought I agreed that he was inconsistent in using his body, but you said he never uses his body which isn't true. Say what you want about him, but he's averaged 15G and 29P per 82 GP over his career while bouncing between mostly bottom 6 roles and some top 6 time. At worst he's a good 4th liner with that kind of production even if his physical play is inconsistent.

Its a bit misleading though. The average of his previous 5 seasons played was around 10G 12A 22pts. The Outlier year, and to this point it statistically is that, could be seen as an aberration and probably is. In fact I'd bet anybody on the board Chiasson doesn't repeat his totals of last year, this season. Absolutely he won't. So that the one season inordinate production really skews the stats away from what it other wise was with this easily available PTO. As per usual things that denote it as aberration are that there was a limited time frame segment where a normal player kind of superheated in a way that nobody would expect. I refer to these as Pisani moments. I wouldn't extrapolate from them too much. (except I'm not comparing, Pisani was a valuable role player, checker, pk player. Chiasson is not as good as that)

Again Chiasson had 16 of this goals in the first 31 games. He normalized back to 6G the rest of the way, in the remaining 42 G which is bang on his career average. Everything in the last 42 GP, the last 4mths of play, most of the season, was back to ordinary Chiasson. So that the hot streak occurred and then evaporated. We're not even talking about a hot player at this point. 6G in last 44GP and I don't recall him doing anything noteworthy the entire preseason.

Chiasson is not necessarily a good 4th line player because he's not that defensively sound and gritty enough. At age 29 he could never be confused with an energy player and doesn't have great closing pace. In past decades a player like Chiasson would make a pretty ideal bottomsix player, but not in 2019, and we don't see that as much here with the Oilers as we've always been weak back there. Most teams wouldn't entertain Chiasson as a starter anywhere. The NHL has improved over the last decade. Teams filling out bottomsix with more easily available players that can play.

Chiasson is a player that doesn't make a lasting impression or who's play suggests swiss army knife anywhere he's been. Its why he's been on 5 teams and having been knocked out of lineups by the play of far better prospects.

Again, this is not to say I would bounce Chiasson at this point. But IF the Holland additions show that they are better in the first 20-40 games then Chiasson takes a back seat. Finally, Chiasson is not a Holland guy, and of course he could very quickly take a chair to make room for the guys that Holland brought in and believes in. Every GM is like that.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Its a bit misleading though. The average of his previous 5 seasons played was around 10G 12A 22pts. The Outlier year, and to this point it statistically is that, could be seen as an aberration and probably is. In fact I'd bet anybody on the board Chiasson doesn't repeat his totals of last year, this season. Absolutely he won't. So that the one season inordinate production really skews the stats away from what it other wise was with this easily available PTO. As per usual things that denote it as aberration are that there was a limited time frame segment where a normal player kind of superheated in a way that nobody would expect. I refer to these as Pisani moments. I wouldn't extrapolate from them too much. (except I'm not comparing, Pisani was a valuable role player, checker, pk player. Chiasson is not as good as that)

Again Chiasson had 16 of this goals in the first 31 games. He normalized back to 6G the rest of the way, in the remaining 42 G which is bang on his career average. Everything in the last 42 GP, the last 4mths of play, most of the season, was back to ordinary Chiasson. So that the hot streak occurred and then evaporated. We're not even talking about a hot player at this point. 6G in last 44GP and I don't recall him doing anything noteworthy the entire preseason.

Chiasson is not necessarily a good 4th line player because he's not that defensively sound and gritty enough. At age 29 he could never be confused with an energy player and doesn't have great closing pace. In past decades a player like Chiasson would make a pretty ideal bottomsix player, but not in 2019, and we don't see that as much here with the Oilers as we've always been weak back there. Most teams wouldn't entertain Chiasson as a starter anywhere. The NHL has improved over the last decade. Teams filling out bottomsix with more easily available players that can play.

Chiasson is a player that doesn't make a lasting impression or who's play suggests swiss army knife anywhere he's been. Its why he's been on 5 teams and having been knocked out of lineups by the play of far better prospects.

Again, this is not to say I would bounce Chiasson at this point. But IF the Holland additions show that they are better in the first 20-40 games then Chiasson takes a back seat. Finally, Chiasson is not a Holland guy, and of course he could very quickly take a chair to make room for the guys that Holland brought in and believes in. Every GM is like that.

Should we cut all of draisaitl and mcdavids hot streaks out too, or are we only punishing Chaisson for scoring in bunches.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Its a bit misleading though. The average of his previous 5 seasons played was around 10G 12A 22pts. The Outlier year, and to this point it statistically is that, could be seen as an aberration and probably is. In fact I'd bet anybody on the board Chiasson doesn't repeat his totals of last year, this season. Absolutely he won't. So that the one season inordinate production really skews the stats away from what it other wise was with this easily available PTO. As per usual things that denote it as aberration are that there was a limited time frame segment where a normal player kind of superheated in a way that nobody would expect. I refer to these as Pisani moments. I wouldn't extrapolate from them too much. (except I'm not comparing, Pisani was a valuable role player, checker, pk player. Chiasson is not as good as that)

Again Chiasson had 16 of this goals in the first 31 games. He normalized back to 6G the rest of the way, in the remaining 42 G which is bang on his career average. Everything in the last 42 GP, the last 4mths of play, most of the season, was back to ordinary Chiasson. So that the hot streak occurred and then evaporated. We're not even talking about a hot player at this point. 6G in last 44GP and I don't recall him doing anything noteworthy the entire preseason.

Chiasson is not necessarily a good 4th line player because he's not that defensively sound and gritty enough. At age 29 he could never be confused with an energy player and doesn't have great closing pace. In past decades a player like Chiasson would make a pretty ideal bottomsix player, but not in 2019, and we don't see that as much here with the Oilers as we've always been weak back there. Most teams wouldn't entertain Chiasson as a starter anywhere. The NHL has improved over the last decade. Teams filling out bottomsix with more easily available players that can play.

Chiasson is a player that doesn't make a lasting impression or who's play suggests swiss army knife anywhere he's been. Its why he's been on 5 teams and having been knocked out of lineups by the play of far better prospects.

Again, this is not to say I would bounce Chiasson at this point. But IF the Holland additions show that they are better in the first 20-40 games then Chiasson takes a back seat. Finally, Chiasson is not a Holland guy, and of course he could very quickly take a chair to make room for the guys that Holland brought in and believes in. Every GM is like that.

Lots of over-analysis here.

What I do know is that if the Oilers had a couple more Chiasson's last season instead of a platoon of Rattie/Rieder underperformers... this team would have been a hell of a lot closer to a playoff spot than they ended up.

Some people are crapping on a guy that actually did produce "something" last season and pointing out his inconsistencies rather than acknowledging that he actually was a net positive among a sea of net negatives... and I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt this year until he actually proves otherwise... especially when we don't yet know for certain that we don't have another platoon of Rattie/Rieder folks on this team again. I'm actually pretty optimistic that we have better supportive depth this year... but Chiasson is part of that depth... not a negative addition imo.

 

[bone]

The one who have him 4th on the team goalscoring will be utterly dissapointed...
My guess is order is McDavid (too fast to not create goals), Draisaitl, Neal, Nuge, Kassian, Nygård, Nurse, Jurco, Klefbom, Haas, Chiasson. Bear, Persson, Sheahan, Bouchard, Benning, Khaira, Archibald, P Russell.

11th best on the team. I think 10 goals is a fair number.

Wow, I hope you are correct and 11 guys score 10 or more goals. If so we'll be looking at this season as a huge success.

List of teams that that had 11 or more 10 goal scorers from last year include:

Tampa Bay (1st in NHL overall and 1st in NHL in goals for)
Montreal (missed playoffs by 2 points-96 points)
Carolina (made it all the way to the conference finals)
St. Louis (Stanley Cup winner, and one of the best records in the entire NHL on the 2019 calendar months)
Calgary (tied for 2nd overall in NHL, and 2nd in NHL goals for)
San Jose (6th overall in NHL, conference finalist, tied for 2nd in NHL goals for)
Arizona (but no one had 20, they missed playoff by 4 points)

Considering Edmonton has two scorers who were top 10 in the NHL for scoring, if they have 9 more guys into double digits, they are challenging for home ice in the playoffs.

Of the 7 teams that did so last year, 3 of them were at least conference finalists, 2 of the others were the top two records in the NHL regular season, then two teams that just fell a little shy of playoffs, but one of which lacked a go to guy and didn't have anyone with 20 goals, the other would have had the 6th best record in the west and surely a playoff team if not for the crazy competition in the East.

For the record, Edmonton only had 6 10-goal scorers last year.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Another point that people make is that Chiasson shots lights out last year which likely isn't repeatable... and he certainly did in the 1st half... but he ended up at 17.9% for the year... which is ~5% over his career avg.

Even if he had only shot at his career avg of 12.7% last season... he'd have still potted ~16 goals at that rate... and 16 goals would still have been a lot more than most wingers on this team produced outside of Drai and Kassian.

 

[SwedishFire]

Wow, I hope you are correct and 11 guys score 10 or more goals. If so we'll be looking at this season as a huge success.

List of teams that that had 11 or more 10 goal scorers from last year include:

Tampa Bay (1st in NHL overall and 1st in NHL in goals for)
Montreal (missed playoffs by 2 points-96 points)
Carolina (made it all the way to the conference finals)
St. Louis (Stanley Cup winner, and one of the best records in the entire NHL on the 2019 calendar months)
Calgary (tied for 2nd overall in NHL, and 2nd in NHL goals for)
San Jose (6th overall in NHL, conference finalist, tied for 2nd in NHL goals for)
Arizona (but no one had 20, they missed playoff by 4 points)

Considering Edmonton has two scorers who were top 10 in the NHL for scoring, if they have 9 more guys into double digits, they are challenging for home ice in the playoffs.

Of the 7 teams that did so last year, 3 of them were at least conference finalists, 2 of the others were the top two records in the NHL regular season, then two teams that just fell a little shy of playoffs, but one of which lacked a go to guy and didn't have anyone with 20 goals, the other would have had the 6th best record in the west and surely a playoff team if not for the crazy competition in the East.

For the record, Edmonton only had 6 10-goal scorers last year.

Okay, I see Draisaitl as the best and most safe bet to score up to 35 goals.

Draisaitl 38
McDavid 32
Neal 25
Nuge 25
Kassian 20
Nygård 18
Nurse 12
Jurco 11
Klefbom 10
Haas 10
Chiasson 10
Bear 6
Persson 5
K Yamamoto 4
Sheahan 4
Bouchard 3
Benning 2
Khaira 2,
Archibald 2
P Russel 1
A Larsson 1

256 goals Yeah. Maybe Nurse and Klefbom is a tad high.
But it evens out on 3,12 goals at average. Its doable.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Should we cut all of draisaitl and mcdavids hot streaks out too, or are we only punishing Chaisson for scoring in bunches.

This reply suggests you either don't understand, or accept that players can heat up one time, and that there are outliers in performance that are rarely ever repeated. its a phenomenon I've noted for 50yrs in hockey. Even Letestu had it once. Doesn't mean I think a guy has great hands or likely to replicate it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Lots of over-analysis here.

What I do know is that if the Oilers had a couple more Chiasson's last season instead of a platoon of Rattie/Rieder underperformers... this team would have been a hell of a lot closer to a playoff spot than they ended up.

Some people are crapping on a guy that actually did produce "something" last season and pointing out his inconsistencies rather than acknowledging that he actually was a net positive among a sea of net negatives... and I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt this year until he actually proves otherwise... especially when we don't yet know for certain that we don't have another platoon of Rattie/Rieder folks on this team again. I'm actually pretty optimistic that we have better supportive depth this year... but Chiasson is part of that depth... not a negative addition imo.

Undeserved benefit of doubt. I don't grant a player that has been nothing special his entire career. He does not have my automatic blessing because he came in and did well in 30games to save an otherwise ending NHL career. This was a player coming in, in desperation to save himself. That put up for a little while and who then reverted to career mean.

Overthinking it was your suggestion that Chiasson will be the 4th leading goal scorer on this team. I think he will be 6 or 7. if that.

The trouble with one segment reductionism and concluding from that is that Rieder is arguably a better player than Chiasson. Better defender, better pk player, and most times a similar producer.

Established NHL players probably should be assessed on the body of their work and careers, not on one outlier short term sample. Chiasson was a walk on because the NHL had determined he was not that much of a player.

just saying.

 

[bone]

Okay, I see Draisaitl as the best and most safe bet to score up to 35 goals.

Draisaitl 38
McDavid 32
Neal 25
Nuge 25
Kassian 20
Nygård 18
Nurse 12
Jurco 11
Klefbom 10
Haas 10
Chiasson 10
Bear 6
Persson 5
K Yamamoto 4
Sheahan 4
Bouchard 3
Benning 2
Khaira 2,
Archibald 2
P Russel 1
A Larsson 1

256 goals Yeah. Maybe Nurse and Klefbom is a tad high.
But it evens out on 3,12 goals at average. Its doable.

I admire your optimism and hope you are correct. 256 GF would have tied for 12th overall last year and represent a 27 goal improvement from last year. Personally, I think you've estimated Kassian high (though if he sticks on the first line, it's doable), 11 from Jurco would be a nice addition and 28 combined from Nygard and Haas would be a revelation worthy of extending Holland even though he still has 4 years on his contract. Most of the others I think could reasonably happen on a player by player basis but would require good health and good luck for all of them to attain.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I admire your optimism and hope you are correct. 256 GF would have tied for 12th overall last year and represent a 27 goal improvement from last year. Personally, I think you've estimated Kassian high (though if he sticks on the first line, it's doable), 11 from Jurco would be a nice addition and 28 combined from Nygard and Haas would be a revelation worthy of extending Holland even though he still has 4 years on his contract. Most of the others I think could reasonably happen on a player by player basis but would require good health and good luck for all of them to attain.

Also, McDavid WILL score 40+ unless he misses a bunch of time. 41 2 years in a row, there's absolutely NOTHING to suggest that will drop

 

[nexttothemoon]

Undeserved benefit of doubt. I don't grant a player that has been nothing special his entire career. He does not have my automatic blessing because he came in and did well in 30games to save an otherwise ending NHL career. This was a player coming in, in desperation to save himself. That put up for a little while and who then reverted to career mean.

Overthinking it was your suggestion that Chiasson will be the 4th leading goal scorer on this team. I think he will be 6 or 7. if that.

The trouble with one segment reductionism and concluding from that is that Rieder is arguably a better player than Chiasson. Better defender, better pk player, and most times a similar producer.

Established NHL players probably should be assessed on the body of their work and careers, not on one outlier short term sample. Chiasson was a walk on because the NHL had determined he was not that much of a player.

just saying.

That walk on out-produced Toby (good for nothing last season and possibly no better this season) Rieder by 22 goals... so I'll take Chiasson based on what he actually did last season for the Oilers.

What Toby "useless" Rieder did years ago in a galaxy far far away is unimportant to me... it's akin to Belanger being good once upon a time before he came to the Oilers and Kyle Brodziak being a solid 2-way centre on other teams instead of a useless lump when he joined the Oilers.

Chiasson's career shooting average is 12.7%... so if he even gets a shot per game which shouldn't be that tough... he'll still score 10+ goals at a minimum.. which is still more than most did last season on this team. I personally think he gets between 15-20 this year... and if he does that, its not a throwaway amount.

Not sure if you were on the Rieder hype train early last season but I thought he was an overrated player when they acquired him... which turned out correct.

I know you've been watching hockey for 50 years... I'm not as old as the Betty White fan club president ...but I've been watching since the late 70's as well... and I also know that players can fall off a cliff in 1 year... so looking at career averages and the like doesn't always hold water.

Not sure why we are really even debating this all because those junk players like Rieder are long gone and Chiasson is still here trying to actually contribute to this team. Holland must have thought he had value as well to give him another contract (on July 1st no less)... so I don't really think it can be said that he's not "Holland's guy".

 

[Drivesaitl]

^Its all good. We're just rehashing talking points and it runs counter because as you point out we want all the continuing players to have success here. Still, Neal is the real deal.

Chiasson not so much.

ps That's the Marissa Tomei fan club bucko, I've pointed this out more than a few times..

 

[Bangers]

^Its all good. We're just rehashing talking points and it runs counter because as you point out we want all the continuing players to have success here. Still, Neal is the real deal.

Chiasson not so much.

ps That's the Marissa Tomei fan club bucko, I've pointed this out more than a few times..

Chasing the younger ladies then? You old dog.