Holland Offseason Moves (Multiple Polls)

[Drivesaitl]

Our current cap hit heading into 2022 If Duncan Keith does not retire next season is 64 million between 8 forwards, 5 defensemen, 1 goalie, and dead cap. This leaves us with 17 million in space all without a starting goalie and without Puljujarvi/Yamamoto/Nurse signed to contract in a crucial offseason. Even if you lowball and assume Yamamoto gets 1.5 million and we fill out 4 forward spots+a defenseman spot with replacement level players, you're left with 11 million to distribute between Nurse, Puljujarvi, and a starting goalie. That is not financially feasible and the extra 5.5 million dollars from Duncan Keith is the negative value asset that's making that impossible, at least Hyman and RNH are gonna be worth their money for a few years.

How should a Yamamoto signing be cause for concern for anybody, and how should he be worth enough to even make signing difficult?

Both the Hyman and RNH contracts are far worse due to how longterm they are, and how much of that term is post peak (typical for forward production and play to regress by age 30. )

 

[Drivesaitl]

IMO Keith is going to make a lot of people look very, very foolish. The only deal that I am hesitant about if the Ceci one.

With us resigning Barrie, and getting Ceci, the Keith addition is better, because Keith can be used in proper spots. Better as a 3/4 and not being over utilized like in Chicago.

I'm one of the few here that would say getting Bear out of here is a positive because his weakness is Ownzone decisions and getting squeezed off the puck. Bouchard is already a boss as well. We got a lot of good D ready to play.

What will be interesting is how teams deal with Barrie, Nurse, Keith, Bouchard all being dangerous 200ft players that can hurt you and support offense really really well.

 

[FlameChampion]

Not sure what to rate his offseason at this point. I think you can look for positives or negatives in his moves to fit your narrative. I think at the end of the day, the teams not good enough though.

Some of its not Hollands doing. The Lucic signing continues to plague this team, even now with the Neal buy out. The Reinhart trade continues to plague the team. Drafting and Development improved under Chiarelli, but was terrible before that. The lack of depth continues to hurt the team.

But now Holland has had a few seasons to at least somewhat mold the team. Hes had cap space this offseason to at least be able to do something. So hows he done?

I will say that I think sometimes fans on here (including myself), have our heads in the clouds too much. We all want Holland to do something like sign Hamiltion for example, but its just not a reality. Players dont want to play in Canada. Its a very real thing. A canadian GM cant make guys sign here if they dont want to.

I do think Holland offseason plan got ruined somewhat by Larsson leaving. I think its left him scrambling. I think he thought Larsson was going to sign here and when he found out he wasnt, he started to panic a bit.

Theres obviously a lot of pressure for Holland to do something over the next four years or so. I think a lot of his moves reflect that. Hes doesnt really care about 5 years from now.

Hes lost too many trades before this offseason. Hes thrown away too many draft picks for things that didnt work. I dont think hes done enough with the pro scouting staff, goaltending staff etc.

But if we focus on just things this season:

- Keith. It might work out, it might not. I personally dont know you make that deal without retention. For a team that has to win now, its an incredibly risky bet.
- RNH. I think the contracts too long. He doesnt drive play and hes a complimentary piece, but can be a pretty nice one. Regardless of what you think of RNH, considering that not all players want to play here in Canada, I dont know if Holland could of really done better. RNH took less to play here, and that should count for something.
- Hyman. I think they need a player like Hyman. People say that the contract wont end well, but I just hope with the way he plays, that hes useful for the first four years of the contract. I think its a decent bet but I think its still fairly risky.
- Barrie. I think its a pretty good contract. I think hes a pretty good bet that he will perform for that contract. I give him a lot of credit for taking less money to be here.
- Bear/Foegele trade. I think once Barrie signed, that trading Bear makes some sense. I dont think you can have too many undersized guys on the back end. I think Foegele is the type of player we need more. Trade stings a bit but I think its a pretty good bet for the Oiler.
- Ceci. Granted I think my perception of the player could be wrong. I dont like the term on the contract or the bet on the player. Maybe I am wrong, but I dont think its going to pan out.
- Ryan. RH center with good faceoffs who hustles his butt off. Pretty good contract. I think its a pretty good bet by Holland, and theres not a lot of harm if it doesnt work out.
- No goalie upgrade. Could still be coming, so wont get into this one.

I think for Holland, he just hasnt made enough good bets. Theres a lot of risks in his moves.

I think hes done a fairly good job with the forwards. But I would of liked to another forward brought in that could bump Yamamoto down if he struggles again. That could be Holloway or Foegele though I guess.

I think the Defense is kind of a mess. Even if we signed Larsson, I think its still kind of a mess. They need someone whos more of a #1-3 on the right side. I think theres some pressure for Bouchard now to be a top 4 and push Ceci and Barrie down. The Oilers really need Bouchard, Broberg, Samurokov to turn into something, with at least one of those guys turning into a top pairing dman. But I've always thought that.

With Goaltending, Smith had a great year. Does he deserve 2 years after his year, yeah probably. But the two year contract is another risky Holland move. Not being able to move Koskinen or improve the goaltending coaching is a failure in my eyes. But he might be able to do something, so not going to discuss it too much.

Oilers for sure, should be a playoff team. Theres a chance that they could do something b/c they have some great players. I dont think teams like Colorado and Vegas have had great offseasons. Overall, maybe it was unrealistic to expect too much change over one offseason, but I personally dont think its going to be good enough (for next year).

 

[Shathar]

I am too dumb to trust myself clicking all those options.

I like the Foegele trade. I remain optimistic that Ceci will surprise. I'm glad that we may potentially have a 'lifer' with the RNH signing. The more I read about Xavier the more I like him, but this could be confirmation bias. I'm a pretty positive guy If hockey made me unhappy, I wouldn't watch it.

The rest I'm pretty neutral (yet optimistically excited for next season).

 

[The Safe Play]

the Foegele for Bear result is eye opening.

I didn't vote yet for good or bad, it's kind of in between so far for me with a mix of both. Don't like what he did to the D, like what he did with the F.

 

[AM]

I’ll tell you after the first game. As they are in win now zone, it all comes down to the product on the field.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I am too dumb to trust myself clicking all those options.

I like the Foegele trade. I remain optimistic that Ceci will surprise. I'm glad that we may potentially have a 'lifer' with the RNH signing. The more I read about Xavier the more I like him, but this could be confirmation bias. I'm a pretty positive guy If hockey made me unhappy, I wouldn't watch it.

The rest I'm pretty neutral (yet optimistically excited for next season).

I totally ignored the poll. Not gonna check off 25 things for an OP I've never even seen here before.

 

[SwedishFire]

When there comes a lot of changes, ofC a lot of people having a hard time, becoming negative.

The 5/5

The Barrie signing for that low (4,5$) as a leading D scorer is amazing. Justin Schultz contract is more expensive.
Nugent Hopkins signing 8 years lower than his first contract is actually a good one. We are no longer in woes of paying him higher.

The 4/5
Derek Ryan contract
Ryan Foegle aqustion. I think Bear is a special player, but he seems to have warts that just going to stay with him. Just as almost every other D man (like Doughty for ex.).
Buying out Neal. Ok, the best to do if there was no deal of any kind that would do in oilers favour,

3/5
Smith contract. ITs good signing him. Authorithy in net that is needed. Aggressive, a very powerful guy. 38 - 40 is used to be a good age for goalies. Nothing wrong here actually.

2/5
Drafting a 3rd liner is a bit odd. Why not drafting at least a 2nd liner ceiling 2 way forward.
Kieth Duncan - he will be impactful, but giving up a 3rd and the whole cap is meh management. Not bad, but meh.

1/5
Getting rid of the best Defensive Dman and third best in Larsson and Bear, and gets Ceci to filll the void. To a high 3 million contract at 4 years. THis just screams something between buyout - dissapointment/frustration. Still a need for a good Defensive guy. ANd a back up.

Koskinen will be the back up next year - but better than buying him out. Just suffer for one year, andhis cap is gone forever. Nikitin all over again.

0/5
The youngsters, the future, the AHL all stars, Benson, Marody, MacLeod has done nothing, yet 23-24 years old. Im dissapointed, but still hopes that one of them will be something, and will play for oilers. Not jst to be lost in UFA or traded for new picks

 

[Stoneman89]

I’ll tell you after the first game. As they are in win now zone, it all comes down to the product on the field.

I might need more than one game to give a judgement.

 

[Drivesaitl]

the Foegele for Bear result is eye opening.

I didn't vote yet for good or bad, it's kind of in between so far for me with a mix of both. Don't like what he did to the D, like what he did with the F.

huh? The D is far better now. Retaining Barrie is HUGE. Ceci+Keith> Larsson+Bear that we lost.

Bear was often a weak link that couldn't even be sheltered. Team tried him in different spots with our best D and nobody could shelter Bears own miscues and giveaways.

A small D has to have elite skillsets to play well in this league. Bear sure doesn't have elite skillsets.

 

[AM]

huh? The D is far better now. Retaining Barrie is HUGE. Ceci+Keith> Larsson+Bear that we lost.

Bear was often a weak link that couldn't even be sheltered. Team tried him in different spots with our best D and nobody could shelter Bears own miscues and giveaways.

A small D has to have elite skillsets to play well in this league. Bear sure doesn't have elite skillsets.

You mean he hasn’t displayed them constantly yet.

 

[Oilhawks]

You mean he hasn’t displayed them constantly yet.

There are two skillsets that are important as an elite D in today’s league that he’s never to display at this point, size and speed.

His strengths are not good enough to make up for those two missing pieces, unlike Barrie who puts up heady offensive numbers (even though his secondary assists shouldn’t count despite it showing that he is very good at breaking the puck out to a forward)

 

[bobbythebrain]

Anyone calling this a poor offseason is out to lunch. People not close to any team are not objective whatsoever. They name chase. It's wby some people think CHI got incredibly better b/c Fleury and Jones were added.

The Oilers were deadly the last 2 seasons, but their possession game was not the greatest.
Their glaring issues were pulling their pants up in big games 2 years ago, and althoough they were slightly better in that regard this playoffs, was lack of depth scoring.

Holland literally addressed all those issues

 

[slim2001]

This is how I seen the offseason and why I thought Holland hurt the teams long term value by how he spent our long awaited cap space flexibility:

- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8 years @ $5,125,000 3/5
Signed for a lower cap hit than he would have received in the open market, but will most likely be negative value the last couple of years of the 8 year term.

- Duncan Keith + Tim Soderlund for Caleb Jones + 2022 conditional 3rd round pick 2/5
I viewed Keith as negative value before the trade due to his age, cap hit and term. With no retention and adding assets to the trade I felt we lost team value and cap flexibility on this trade.

- Mike Smith 2 years @ $2,200,000 3/5
Had a great year and wanted him resigned but Smith could be negative value in year two.

- 2021 1st Round Draft Pick 2/5
Was super excited when Wallstedt dropped to our pick, only to be extremely disappointed when we traded down. Will be a few years before the value of that trade can be determined.

- Cody Ceci 4 years @ $3,250,000 2/5
Seemed like a panic move Larsson replacement with only a slightly lower cap hit. Term is too long as Bouchard will likely be playing top four within a year or two and cap hit is too high for a bottom pairing defenseman.

- Tyson Barrie 3 years @ $4,500,000 5/5
Thought he would get 4 years @ $5,000,000, extremely happy with his extension.

- Zach Hyman 7 years @ $5,500,000 1/5
Like the player, but hate the contract. Unlikely to be traded for positive value part way through his contract with inflated McDrai stats due to also giving him a NMC. IMO he will have more negative value years than positive.

- Derek Ryan 2 years @ $1,250,000 4/5
Low risk signing. If he is an NHL regular he is positive value at that cap hit. If he sucks he can be buried for 200k.

- Warren Foegele for Ethan Bear 5/5
Not a fan of Bear's game, big fan of the way Foegele plays the game. My favorite offseason transaction.

- Warren Foegele 3 years @ $2,750,000 4/5
No complaints with term or cap hit, excited to see if he can crack the top six.

- My overall score for Holland's offseason moves 2/5
Was hoping he would go with the approach of signing players who want a chance to play McDavid and Draisaitl and willing to accept team friendly contracts. Instead he spent everything on multi-year deals leaving no cap space for a few players willing to accept short term deals later in the offseason. Team is better for next year, but at the expense of the future.

 

[Oilhawks]

This is how I seen the offseason and why I thought Holland hurt the teams long term value by how he spent our long awaited cap space flexibility:

- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8 years @ $5,125,000 3/5
Signed for a lower cap hit than he would have received in the open market, but will most likely be negative value the last couple of years of the 8 year term.

- Duncan Keith + Tim Soderlund for Caleb Jones + 2022 conditional 3rd round pick 2/5
I viewed Keith as negative value before the trade due to his age, cap hit and term. With no retention and adding assets to the trade I felt we lost team value and cap flexibility on this trade.

- Mike Smith 2 years @ $2,200,000 3/5
Had a great year and wanted him resigned but Smith could be negative value in year two.

- 2021 1st Round Draft Pick 2/5
Was super excited when Wallstedt dropped to our pick, only to be extremely disappointed when we traded down. Will be a few years before the value of that trade can be determined.

- Cody Ceci 4 years @ $3,250,000 2/5
Seemed like a panic move Larsson replacement with only a slightly lower cap hit. Term is too long as Bouchard will likely be playing top four within a year or two and cap hit is too high for a bottom pairing defenseman.

- Tyson Barrie 3 years @ $4,500,000 5/5
Thought he would get 4 years @ $5,000,000, extremely happy with his extension.

- Zach Hyman 7 years @ $5,500,000 1/5
Like the player, but hate the contract. Unlikely to be traded for positive value part way through his contract with inflated McDrai stats due to also giving him a NMC. IMO he will have more negative value years than positive.

- Derek Ryan 2 years @ $1,250,000 4/5
Low risk signing. If he is an NHL regular he is positive value at that cap hit. If he sucks he can be buried for 200k.

- Warren Foegele for Ethan Bear 5/5
Not a fan of Bear's game, big fan of the way Foegele plays the game. My favorite offseason transaction.

- Warren Foegele 3 years @ $2,750,000 4/5
No complaints with term or cap hit, excited to see if he can crack the top six.

- My overall score for Holland's offseason moves 2/5
Was hoping he would go with the approach of only signing players who want a chance to play McDavid and Draisaitl and were willing to accept short term team friendly contracts. Instead he spent everything on multi-year deals leaving no cap space for players willing to accept those type of deals later in the offseason. Team is better for next year, but at the expense of the future.

Thanks for the write up. For the bolded, it's a nice sentiment but ultimately I think that is fantasy land stuff, especially in a market where a ton of cap space was injected (expansion team) even with the flat cap. You won't be getting any good players signing short term team-friendly deals to play with McDrai, or anyone for that matter. Not in this market.

We have to keep in mind that there are much more factors at play, like other up and coming teams in more desirable markets (climate, tax, etc) having cap to spend. Not everyone is going to jump at the change to play with them either, unfortunately.

 

[KCC]

-Absolute dumpster fire offseason
-RNH=good AAV term is a bit long for my liking but it's a good move overall
-Keith=absolute dog shit franchise crippling trade
-Smith=the player is fine but the 2 years is awful for a 38 year old goalie
-draft=Bourgault is fine from what I'm reading
-Ceci=complete disaster, he's a player whose solid on a short term deal in medium difficulty competition but we've locked him in for 4 years for some reason?
-Barrie=underpaid for leading all dmen in points, great move
-Hyman=player is good, term is vomit inducing for a player with his playstyle and knee issues
-Ryan=underpaid and fills an important need, no complaints
-Bear trade=good player but why did we have to give up our best matchup RHD for him man? now we have 3 dmen who need sheltering in Barrie/Ceci/Bouchard
-Foegele contract=fair contract that could potentially become a steal if he gets hands and becomes a 20-30 goal 50-60 point player

Basically Hollland has done decently forwards wise, but defense and goaltending are brutal. Even worse than last season. They will not be able to keep the puck out of their net unless Smith dials back into his 20s again and/or Koskinen somehow switches into a decent goaltender. lol.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

I'd give Holland a 5/10 or a C . Most surprising was the dollar value that Barrie signed for. He did well with Ryan as well. Hyman plays well but term is too long. Same with Nuge but good dollar amount. Keith is for only two years but crappy value. I'm ok with Mike Smith's deal. He earned it. I'm neutral on Foegele for I haven't watched him play. Ceci. vaguely remember his play but most here seem to hate the deal. That Xavier draft pick better be something special to pass up on that goalie in the draft. Truly a mixed bag here. That being said, I'd figure after Chiarelli's absolute shit show, the organization would keep a tighter reign on the next GM. Holland has made some real dumb ass moves in the past here.

 

[Del Preston]

All things considered, I voted good season overall. Don't mean to keep repeating myself, but he needs to upgrade on Koskinen before summer is out.

- Nuge: good (great)
- Keith: like the player but wanted some salary retained or going back to Chicago
- Smith: good
- 1st rounder: I would have taken Wallstedt because he's a goalie; admittedly, I know very little about the draft
- Ceci: voted bad because I no idea what to expect from him; I would have preferred a Larsson-type player
- Barrie: good (great)
- Hyman: good, though the term could/will be a killer
- Ryan: good
- Foegele trade: good (great)
- Foegele signing: good (great)

 

[slim2001]

Thanks for the write up. For the bolded, it's a nice sentiment but ultimately I think that is fantasy land stuff, especially in a market where a ton of cap space was injected (expansion team) even with the flat cap. You won't be getting any good players signing short term team-friendly deals to play with McDrai, or anyone for that matter. Not in this market.

We have to keep in mind that there are much more factors at play, like other up and coming teams in more desirable markets (climate, tax, etc) having cap to spend. Not everyone is going to jump at the change to play with them either, unfortunately.

While I agree with everything you said, we only need a couple contracts fitting that criteria. Last year we got Barrie. If Holland left some cap space we might have been able to get one or two this offseason, unfortunately now we will never know. (I edited the part you bolded to be more clear with what I was trying to state.)

 

[Oilhawks]

While I agree with everything you said, we only need a couple contracts fitting that criteria. Last year we got Barrie. If Holland left some cap space we might have been able to get one or two this offseason, unfortunately now we will never know. I edited the part you bolded to be more clear with what I was trying to state.

The only guy I can think of that might fit that criteria this year is Tatar. I like Tatar, he's definitely a good player but ideally he's on the 2nd or 3rd line, especially in the playoffs. It would have been nice if they had an extra $3M around to throw a $3M x 1 or something at him to push Yams or Pulju down to the 3rd line (though Foegele could steal one of their spots still).

I think with how busy Free Agency was the first day further evidences that there weren't really many good players out there that had a down season that couldn't get a good deal from a team. Last year there were more value players hanging around this far into free agency (from what I recall). Aside from Tatar, I can't think of any good forwards that aren't signed that would fit that criteria. For D, Murray might have been the last one hanging around, with an honourable mention to Chara and Hutton. The rest of the guys are 7D types, IMO.

 

[slim2001]

The only guy I can think of that might fit that criteria this year is Tatar. I like Tatar, he's definitely a good player but ideally he's on the 2nd or 3rd line, especially in the playoffs. It would have been nice if they had an extra $3M around to throw a $3M x 1 or something at him to push Yams or Pulju down to the 3rd line (though Foegele could steal one of their spots still).

I think with how busy Free Agency was the first day further evidences that there weren't really many good players out there that had a down season that couldn't get a good deal from a team. Last year there were more value players hanging around this far into free agency (from what I recall). Aside from Tatar, I can't think of any good forwards that aren't signed that would fit that criteria. For D, Murray might have been the last one hanging around, with an honourable mention to Chara and Hutton. The rest of the guys are 7D types, IMO.

You are correct this is not much left this free agency, but with no cap space left we can not add much at deadline. Then after that the only contract over 2m coming off the books next year is Koskinen and all of that money will go to the Nurse and Puljujärvi raises and once again we will be in tough to add any value contracts.

 

[SaltNPeca]

Decent (Good) Offseason moves. Top 6 and PP are strengths. Based on the Goaltending situation it is pretty clear it's again "not the time to go all in". Maybe after he extends Nurse and the window closes on McDrai he will get more desperate, and maybe make a deadline deal or 2?

For me this team is good enough to place high in the weak Pacific, but doesn't look like a Stanley Cup contender.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Still waiting for the 'Grade Holland's Offseason' poll @Cloned