Hockey's Future Top 50 Prospects Fall 2005: 11-25

[ZombieMatt]

Since I assume Travis Zajac didn't crack the top 10, I'm midly disappointed to not see him in the 40-50 range. If he progresses as steadily this season as last, he'll force his way on the list next time.

I wasn't on the Commitee, so I have no inside information despite being HF Staff, but I would guess he was one of the guys who was bumped due to the inclusion of the 2005 guys.

 

[David A. Rainer]

I wasn't on the Commitee, so I have no inside information despite being HF Staff, but I would guess he was one of the guys who was bumped due to the inclusion of the 2005 guys.

He was part of the initial 160 that we considered. But he didn't make it to the cut of 75. He was one of the last ones cut when we got down to 75.

 

[freakazoid]

From what I understand, the list is made based on potential and likeliness to reach that potential, so IMO Ward at 40 is WAY too low for him. In terms of potential, he has loads of it, and the likeliness of him reaching his potential was somewhat demonstrated when the Canes didn't even bother resigning Gerber. The guy managed to lead the AHL in save percentage and was near the top in GAA while playing on a fairly weak team, all that in his rookie season. I wouldn't be surprised if he follows Raycroft's path by getting the #1 gig and atleast being in the running for the calder. I won't say he is a front candidante to win it since this year will be a dog fight among the Crosby, AO, Malkin (If he comes over) etc, but after witnessing his smooth transfer to the AHL last season, I really believe the guy can be a yearly Vezina candidate. I think the fact that he is in Carolina, not the most prolific of hockey cities, hurts him more than anything. He is the same age as Toivonen, had a comparable season in the AHL even though it was his first and Hannu's second, filled his room with hardware during his playing years in the WHL, but he still isn't mentionned when talking about the best prospects in the world. MAF has loads of potential, but the likeliness of reaching that potential is not as high as a top 10 prospect's should be, and yet he is among the top 10. Other than that, the list looks great. (Maybe Pouliot and Michalek a little too high and Lundqvist a little too low)

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Lundqvist
Nokelainen
Cammalleri
Michalek
Kostitsyn
Tyutin

But I guess it doesn't matter, if a player is taken by Toronto, he all of a sudden goes from great to crap, and as soon as he leaves he is a blue chipper again. Happens all the time.

HAHAHAHA.

Carlo over Tyutin?? Are you out of your mind? Seriously, give me some of that radiated blue kool-aid, man.

 

[GorillazXL]

I think the top 5 will be

1) Dustin Rose - obviosuly

2) Sidney Crosby

3) AO

4) Malkin

5) Phaneuf

His mid season slump may drop him a few spots though
GXL

 

[Liquidrage*]

Excellent analysis of Kostitsyn...and to be accurate, his shot was at exactly 100mph...what exites me about Kostitsyn is at 20yrs old, his talent is undeniable, cultural adjustment's have to be made though, and for those who think that's just an excuse, it's really not, Alexander Mogilny went through an adjustment period in the NHL before he exploded, not saying this will happen with Kostitsyn, but just pointing out that not everyone has a smooth transition to the NA game

I just keep remembering his performance vs. the U.S. at the WJC's, he was truly dominant...

Yeah, and a lot of players that come over never turn in Mogilny either.
It's not a given just because some guy sucked last year that he'll be great just because some other people sucked for a while then got really good.
And Moginly's "adjustment period" he still well put up really good numbers.

Do they not play with sitcks over there or something? Yeah, he might get adjusted to the vastly different NA game and become some great player. But he just played a full year in the AHL and didn't look great. The "adjustment" is a fair excuse but not a justification to rank him so highly above other players that were just as young and just vastly outplayed him in the same league.

Im not saying it has to be purely based on stats or anything like that.

But the dude just scored only 23 points in 68 games in the AHL. He was 11th on his own team in scoring.
You're giving him A LOT of freakin' slack on that "adjustment period" thing. How many years does he get to adjust?

 

[Evilo]

He was part of the initial 160 that we considered. But he didn't make it to the cut of 75. He was one of the last ones cut when we got down to 75.

Was Ryan Whitney in your top 75? Just wondering...

 

[Genghis Keon]

Do they not play with sitcks over there or something? Yeah, he might get adjusted to the vastly different NA game and become some great player. But he just played a full year in the AHL and didn't look great. The "adjustment" is a fair excuse but not a justification to rank him so highly above other players that were just as young and just vastly outplayed him in the same league.

He showed improvement over the year, though, which shows that getting more acclimated to the culture/language and NA game did improve his game. Not saying it will continue and Kostitsyn will be some great superstar, but the signs of progression and the tools are there to be a pretty special player. This is probably what the people who compiled the list considered. And I think Richards was the only 1985 birth year who he's rated over and who has vastly outplayed him in the AHL.

But the dude just scored only 23 points in 68 games in the AHL. He was 11th on his own team in scoring.
You're giving him A LOT of freakin' slack on that "adjustment period" thing. How many years does he get to adjust?

He was one of very, very few 19 years olds in the AHL last year, so it's not like a Pavel Brendl situation (yet) where some people still hold out hope for him developing and becoming a player 5 or 6 years after he was drafted. If his coming year is similar to this past year, obviously he's going to fall in the rankings and in everyone's eyes, and fall an awful, awful lot. If he shows noticeable progression and still shows signs of great potential, but still doesn't put it all together (maybe puts up 40 or so points in his 20 year old year), he'll most likely be given some slack and still be considered a top 50 type prospect. If he blows up, scoring a boatload of goals and otherwise having a season like Vanek did at the same age, then he'll move up the rankings.

 

[MentalPowerHouse]

It's amusing to see folks attacking Kostitsyn for having 2 "poor" years. Aside from scoring at a goal-per-game pace in russian junior and getting his medical issues under control, he then moves to a new continent... alone... without speaking the language... at age 19, proceeds to learn the language, learns defense, has a pretty good WJC, and showed flashes of great tools. If you rank on potential, he's got loads. If you rank on stats, then he's way too high. I personally thought that he would have been left off the list entirely because he didn't perform up to the lofty expectations folks had for him this past season, but I'm glad he is recognized for having amazing tools... based on talent, he belongs on that list.

Good list so far... I'm also glad Perezhogin made it back in. Hopefully we see some action out of him this year.

You can make excuses all you want and I am not saying that he'll never be a good hockey player, but the fact is he was brutal. Spin it whatever way you want being brutal is not good. Wouldn't it have been better if despite all those excuses you listed he still managed to have even a half decent year? Also, all these excuses might be used to explain why he didn't produce alot of stats but there no excuse for showing lack of heart, grit, determination and maybe other intangibles.

It's not the end of the world for him, he's young and he has skills. He can still develop into a player.