Hockey's Future Organizational Rankings, Spring 2011 11-20

[NeedMoreJam]

I think it's kind of strange to have a prospect pool rating at this time, since in a little over a month each team will have other assets to add to their pool.

As for Jonathan., who seems hell bent on discrediting the oilers prospects in favour of his beloved rangers, why do you care so much when the ratings arent even out yet?

You can get all uppity about how things are now, but in a month plus the oilers are adding the first overall, the kings pick (although this will be a wash because the rangers will pick within a few as well), and the 31st. Have fun with your >'s after that.

 

[Riggins]

Thank you people. I have been considering how I might make better use of my time in life and came upon a group of people bickering about whose favourite hockey team has better prospects. This will hopefully force change for the better. Thanks again.

 

[Korpse]

I think just about every team has one goalie who has the potential to be great, it's just most of them don't pan out, that's why goalie depth is so huge.

Ana-
Atl-
Bos-
Buf-Enroth
Cgy-
Car-
Chi-
Col-
Cbj-
Dal-Campbell
Det-
Edm-
Fla-Markstorm
La-Bernier
Min-
Mtl-
Nsh-
NYI-Poulin
NYR-
Ott-Lehner
Phi-
Phx-Visentin
Pit-
Stl-Allen
Sjs-
Tbl-
Tor-Reimer
Van-
Was-Holtby

Fill in the blanks.

 

[Jeffrey Lebowski]

Ana-
Atl-
Bos-Rask
Buf-Enroth
Cgy-
Car-
Chi- Salak
Col-Pickard
Cbj- Mason/Pickard
Dal-Campbell
Det-
Edm-Dubnyk
Fla-Markstorm
La-Bernier
Min-
Mtl-
Nsh-Lindback
NYI-Poulin
NYR-
Ott-Lehner
Phi-Bobrovsky
Phx-Visentin
Pit-
Stl-Allen
Sjs-
Tbl-Tokarski
Tor-Reimer
Van-Schneider
Was-Holtby

Fill in the blanks.

Just off the top of my head... Some have graduated, but all are goalies who are fresh or haven't entered the NHL who still have the potential to be great.

 

[R S]

Fill in the blanks.

Well yeah, it looks barren when you simply look at prospects, but you have to consider guys that have moved on from that status to being high end starters already.

That includes Rinne, Price, Lundqvist, Fleury etc etc

 

[Anchor Town*]

Very disappointing write up for Detroit. Whoever wrote it should either pay more attention or find a new field of work.

12. Detroit Red Wings

Strengths: The Red Wings have 15 centers in their system, including eight prospects with first or second line potential. Top among the centers is Tomas Tatar, who is expected to become a full time NHLer in 2011-12. Detroit also has two top defensive prospects within the organization, including Brendan Smith, who should be competing for a roster spot next season and 2010 draftee Ben Marshall, who may be another great late round find for the Red Wings. On the wing, another 2010 draft selection, Teemu Pulkkinen, has first line potential, and if he can be convinced to come and play in North America, Pulkkinen has the potential to be a star. Weaknesses: Detroit has very few prospects that naturally play on the wing within their organization. Goaltending depth could also be improved. Top 5 Prospects: 1. Brendan Smith; 2. Tomas Tatar; 3. Jan Mursak; 4. Gustav Nyquist; 5. Teemu Pulkkinen. Lost to graduation: Justin Abdelkader.

First Tatar plays left wing mostly and will so in Detroit. Second, he is not expected to be a full timer in Detroit until 2012-2013, this is universally agreed upon amongst any knowledgeable Detroit fans. Third, Ben Marshall is nowhere near a "top defensive prospect" he was very pedestrian in the USHL this season, not much is expected of him. And with regards to Pulkkinen, why is "if he can be convinced to come and play in North America" thrown in there? As if there is reason to doubt he would. And Detroit's weaknesses would be lack of defensive defensemen prospects and powerforwards.

Just poor writing all around

 

[vippe]

wow, if Krüger doesnt even make the top 5 of Hawks prospects the others must be crazy good.

 

[Lexicon Devil]

The depth isn't there.

It doesn't need to be.

If a team has only two draft picks for a season, but they are 3rd overall and 7th overall, then that team is in a better position than average, despite only have two picks.

The role of second-tier prospects is being overrated here. Historically, first rounders are far, far more likely to be all-stars than anyone else. Look at the draft positions of this year's all-star teams:

1st - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (11 of these were top-5 picks)
2nd - xxxxxx
3rd - xxxxx
4th - x
7th- x
8th -x
9th x
not - xxx

The point is that highly ranked prospects are much more likely to make an impact than second-tier guys. A couple of years after drafting, I would bet that this effect is even more pronounced, as we have more information about the players - the rankings now (assuming we could agree on them) would probably be even more predictive than draft day. Given the choice, it's usually a good idea to go with the team with better top-end talent, not the team with better depth. Again, Toronto vs. Ottawa is close, but Ottawa should definitely be ranked ahead of the likes of Carolina and Chicago.

 

[trentmccleary]

Created a separate thread for the Leafs/Sens prospect pool comparison:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p=33104289#post33104289

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

It doesn't need to be.

If a team has only two draft picks for a season, but they are 3rd overall and 7th overall, then that team is in a better position than average, despite only have two picks.

The role of second-tier prospects is being overrated here. Historically, first rounders are far, far more likely to be all-stars than anyone else. Look at the draft positions of this year's all-star teams:

1st - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (11 of these were top-5 picks)
2nd - xxxxxx
3rd - xxxxx
4th - x
7th- x
8th -x
9th x
not - xxx

The point is that highly ranked prospects are much more likely to make an impact than second-tier guys. A couple of years after drafting, I would bet that this effect is even more pronounced, as we have more information about the players - the rankings now (assuming we could agree on them) would probably be even more predictive than draft day. Given the choice, it's usually a good idea to go with the team with better top-end talent, not the team with better depth. Again, Toronto vs. Ottawa is close, but Ottawa should definitely be ranked ahead of the likes of Carolina and Chicago.

Why should Sens be ranked higher then Hawks

The Sens forward depth isn't as good as Hawks

Maybe I am just too big a fan of my own team but

Sens top forward prospects

C Jakob Silfverberg
C Loui Caporusso
RW Bobby Butler
C Jim O'Brien
RW Erik Condra
RW Roman Vick
LW Andrew Petersson
C Colin Greening
LW Kaspars Daugavins
RW Markus Sorensen

Hawks top forward prospects

LW Jeremy Morin (2nd rounder in 2009)
LW Kyle Beach (1st rounder in 2008)
LW Kevin Hayes (1st rounder in 2010)
C Marcus Kruger (Did well in playoffs and late season with Hawks)
C Brandon Pirri (2nd rounder in 2009)
RW Jimmy Hayes (2nd rounder in 2008)
LW Ludvig Rensfeldt (2nd rounder in 2010)
RW Ben Smith (Did well in playoffs)
RW Igor Makarov
LW Philippe Paradis (1st rounder in 2009)

I mean to me it is very clear , Hawks forward prospects are a lot better.

Defensively the Hawks have some nice prospects as well

D Nick Leddy (1st round in 09 ,, Playing in NHL)
D Dylan Olsen (1st round in 09)
D Shawn Lalonde
D Stephen Johns (2nd round in 2010)
D Justin Holl (2nd round in 2010)

I mean again maybe I am overating the Hawks prospects but to me our prospect pool looks much better then the Sens

 

[TheRedressor]

How do we know the Rangers won't trade up to the #2 pick or something? Or the Oilers trade back? Maybe the Oilers will draft another Jesse Niinimäki-like outrageous pick at their pick.

You would throw up in your mouth if you had to switch the Rangers and Oilers prospect pools? Oh lord, give me a break. There isn't that big of a spread between the two prospect pools. It's pretty close between the two either way, i don't know how anybody can say differently. I think it's pretty subjective to say who is better individually since it is close but i'll say....

Kreider >= Marincin
McDonagh > Petry
Thomas <= Pitlick
Grachev = Hamilton
Zuccarello = Omark
McIlrath > Plante
Hagelin < Lander (though I would take Hagelin)
Bourque < Martindale
Johnson = Roy
Valentenko < Hartikainen

I don't know, i would say that the Oilers might even have a slight edge depthwise but the Rangers a slight edge in top end talent.
Also, as mentioned above, the Oilers will add a lot to their prospect pool in this draft.

Why don't we just wait until 2013 and the Oilers will have 2 MORE top 5 picks??

This list is about the here and now.

 

[Arcane]

Petry is better than McDonagh? Laughable.

Could go either way

Petry, statistically speaking

College numbers > Petry by a mile
AHL numbers > Petry by a mile
NHL> Mcdonagh by 4 points

Mcdonagh might be slightly better defensively but saying it's laughable really shows how uninformed you are.

 

[Arcane]

How do we know the Rangers won't trade up to the #2 pick or something? Or the Oilers trade back? Maybe the Oilers will draft another Jesse Niinimäki-like outrageous pick at their pick.

Jessiman, everyone has made mistakes, surprised you didn't just use a Rangers example.

 

[jbeck5]

Why should Sens be ranked higher then Hawks

The Sens forward depth isn't as good as Hawks

Maybe I am just too big a fan of my own team but

Sens top forward prospects

C Jakob Silfverberg
C Loui Caporusso
RW Bobby Butler
C Jim O'Brien
RW Erik Condra
RW Roman Vick
LW Andrew Petersson
C Colin Greening
LW Kaspars Daugavins
RW Markus Sorensen

Hawks top forward prospects

LW Jeremy Morin (2nd rounder in 2009)
LW Kyle Beach (1st rounder in 2008)
LW Kevin Hayes (1st rounder in 2010)
C Marcus Kruger (Did well in playoffs and late season with Hawks)
C Brandon Pirri (2nd rounder in 2009)
RW Jimmy Hayes (2nd rounder in 2008)
LW Ludvig Rensfeldt (2nd rounder in 2010)
RW Ben Smith (Did well in playoffs)
RW Igor Makarov
LW Philippe Paradis (1st rounder in 2009)

I mean to me it is very clear , Hawks forward prospects are a lot better.

Defensively the Hawks have some nice prospects as well

D Nick Leddy (1st round in 09 ,, Playing in NHL)
D Dylan Olsen (1st round in 09)
D Shawn Lalonde
D Stephen Johns (2nd round in 2010)
D Justin Holl (2nd round in 2010)

I mean again maybe I am overating the Hawks prospects but to me our prospect pool looks much better then the Sens

You're missing guys like da costa,stone,hoffman and depending on how he rebounds, culek....as well as misspelling names like wick* and andre* so i wouldn't be surprised if you're just over hyping hawks prospects/ under hyping sens prospects.

 

[Jussi]

Very disappointing write up for Detroit. Whoever wrote it should either pay more attention or find a new field of work.



First Tatar plays left wing mostly and will so in Detroit. Second, he is not expected to be a full timer in Detroit until 2012-2013, this is universally agreed upon amongst any knowledgeable Detroit fans. Third, Ben Marshall is nowhere near a "top defensive prospect" he was very pedestrian in the USHL this season, not much is expected of him. And with regards to Pulkkinen, why is "if he can be convinced to come and play in North America" thrown in there? As if there is reason to doubt he would. And Detroit's weaknesses would be lack of defensive defensemen prospects and powerforwards.

Just poor writing all around

This. Came to post about the Pulkkinen part but you beat me to it. And they still have him as a left wing... Doesn't anyone at HF Staff update the the player's stats/profiles? Average HFBoards posters seem to know more about the players than staff members...

 

[BPD]

Here's an exercise for you. Compare Toronto's prospects to Anaheim/NYR/Edmonton's. Toronto's prospects are clearly better, but HF has them ranked lower. HF is infallible, right?

I have to disagree with you there. Anaheim did a nice job shoring up their system in the last year or two, and the Rangers have been a factory over the last 2 years and ~6 years of solid drafting pays off. Edmonton only dropped because they graduated their top 5 in its entirety - and they're STILL 10th

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Wonder when the last time the devils were ranked this high .

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Depth is much easier to come by via trades and free agency than top talent is. It's so difficult to acquire your very best players not via the draft and be successful nowadays. I was gonna break this down but that would take a lot of time, we can do it later though if we want.

You're acting as if depth is so easy to come by. If that were the case wouldn't Washington have done that by now? Wouldn't Philly have shored up their goaltending? Wouldn't Nashville have added forwards?

If depth was so easy to come by, these teams would've done so by now. Depth is the reason Detroit has been so good for so long. The Devils, who were once a powerhouse now have a crappy defense and no goalies after Brodeur. Why? Lack of being able to scout talent in the draft and build depth. Calgary made it to the Finals in '04. Since then, they have been getting older and getting worse. Lack of depth has kept then from staying competitive, forcing them to overpay players and hand out no trade clauses.

Depth is key to being a winner and staying competitive. You definitely need top end talent, but if you don't have depth, don't expect to go anywhere.

 

[Andrew Knoll]

I think it's kind of strange to have a prospect pool rating at this time, since in a little over a month each team will have other assets to add to their pool.

As for Jonathan., who seems hell bent on discrediting the oilers prospects in favour of his beloved rangers, why do you care so much when the ratings arent even out yet?

You can get all uppity about how things are now, but in a month plus the oilers are adding the first overall, the kings pick (although this will be a wash because the rangers will pick within a few as well), and the 31st. Have fun with your >'s after that.

If we waited until the draft, then fall would be a total lame-duck session. The spring evaluates depth and quality with recent graduates and the past season in the books. the Fall will look at draft picks and recent acquisitions.

No boost or drop was given to teams this time out in some effort to predict what would happen in the draft. It will be interesting to see where each of those teams stands after the upcoming draft, as you pointed out Edmonton has a couple of high picks.

 

[Benttheknee]

You're acting as if depth is so easy to come by. If that were the case wouldn't Washington have done that by now? Wouldn't Philly have shored up their goaltending? Wouldn't Nashville have added forwards?

If depth was so easy to come by, these teams would've done so by now. Depth is the reason Detroit has been so good for so long. The Devils, who were once a powerhouse now have a crappy defense and no goalies after Brodeur. Why? Lack of being able to scout talent in the draft and build depth. Calgary made it to the Finals in '04. Since then, they have been getting older and getting worse. Lack of depth has kept then from staying competitive, forcing them to overpay players and hand out no trade clauses.

Depth is key to being a winner and staying competitive. You definitely need top end talent, but if you don't have depth, don't expect to go anywhere.

I certainly have questions abut the rankings, and yes, I think depth is totally overrated by the HF team. Being a Sens fan, I am shocked at the placement of teams like Anaheim and Edmonton vs the Sens.

Ana graduated/traded prospects 1,2, and 3, and added none. They went from 13th to 8th. Edmonto at 10th? Look at their top prospects, now look at the Sens top prospects. To make up the difference, and surpass it by a noticable amount means that depth is very important.

Look at trade proposals:
5 stiffs for a star please!

Now, perhaps on Ahanheim and Edmonton, their 7-12th picks are not that much different than their 3-6th guys, in that case, I am totally 100% wrong.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

I will buck the trend and say that 20th is a fair and accurate assesment of the Habs prospect pool as defined by HF. The good thing is that the prospect depth has been depleted in the best fashion possible, by graduation of players to the NHL. Pacioretty, Eller, Subban, Weber, White and Desharnais is one hell of a cohort of players graduating from the AHL in the same year.

 

[JimmyStart*]

Very disappointing write up for Detroit. Whoever wrote it should either pay more attention or find a new field of work.



First Tatar plays left wing mostly and will so in Detroit. Second, he is not expected to be a full timer in Detroit until 2012-2013, this is universally agreed upon amongst any knowledgeable Detroit fans. Third, Ben Marshall is nowhere near a "top defensive prospect" he was very pedestrian in the USHL this season, not much is expected of him. And with regards to Pulkkinen, why is "if he can be convinced to come and play in North America" thrown in there? As if there is reason to doubt he would. And Detroit's weaknesses would be lack of defensive defensemen prospects and powerforwards.

Just poor writing all around

Hey you guys should do a "write up" thread where one or a few of your top posters collaborate to assemble a write up and then post it until you get a majority vote on whether it's acceptable or not. Can't get on HF it's a nice little repository of knowledge with normal human mistakes rearing their head just like everywhere else on earth.

 

[birddog*]

Thank you people. I have been considering how I might make better use of my time in life and came upon a group of people bickering about whose favourite hockey team has better prospects. This will hopefully force change for the better. Thanks again.

Oh the irony. Don't pretend you are above it when you come in and post a paragraph amounting to the same thing. If you were you wouldn't be posting at all.

Hopefully someday you will display the necessary restraint and refrain from this kind of posting -- hopefully forcing change for the better somewhere else.

I doubt it -- you;re probably lurking right now.

 

[madmike77]

Ana-
Atl-
Bos-
Buf-Enroth
Cgy-
Car-
Chi-
Col-
Cbj-
Dal-Campbell
Det-
Edm-
Fla-Markstorm
La-Bernier
Min-
Mtl-
Nsh-
NYI-Poulin
NYR-
Ott-Lehner
Phi-
Phx-Visentin
Pit-
Stl-Allen
Sjs-
Tbl-
Tor-Reimer
Van-
Was-Holtby

Fill in the blanks.

Kind of makes the point. Reimer came out of nowhere. He was on no one's list last year. For Calgary you could throw in Irving and Ortio. I'm sure fans of every other team could toss at least one name in.

 

[Beacon]

Then you take a look at the Rangers board and OM*G they've replaced Stepan with another depth prospect who's going to be a 1st liner in Christian Thomas. They constantly seem to have 3 potential 1st liners at all times. But hey, Stepan was only made a 1st liner to replace potential 1st liner Anisimov... who replaced potential 1st liner Dubinsky... who replaced potential 1st liner Voros... who replaced potential 1st liner Dawes... etc.

This is what happens when you live in big, media driven markets like NY and Tor and you read you prospect info on a fan popularity driven website.

New York media hardly covers hockey and almost never the prospects. Go find me an article about Rangers prospects in the NY Times.

If anything, Canadians (citizenship, not the Habs) will always be on top of all the junior prospects in their system because it's so easy to follow them.

Voros was never a Rangers prospect. Dawes was never thought to be a first liner by anyone except a few crazy people, which exist in every fan base.

Dubinsky was never projected as a first liner, he was viewed as a third liner and instead ... gulp... became a borderline first liner. A 24-goal scorer who does everything else (defense, hitting, leadership) better than score is not exactly Voros. He's getting better every year because of his work ethic and will likely improve again next season.

Anisimov was seen as a solid prospect, but again, I don't remember any agreement that he'll be a first liner. He was seen as a first liner by a distinct minority with most people seeing him as a second liner. After only his sophomore year, he's already a borderline second liner with 18 goals, and will likely keep improving.


Honestly, who are you kidding? If anything, the Rangers always get beat up because everyone within 1,000 miles of New York thinks they are the Rangers' rivals, and because of that like to beat up on them. Then the rest of the league picks up on the crap they keep hearing from half the Eastern Conference teams' fans.

Look at the trades that are proposed on HF. Every Ranger veteran, including Gaborik, is seen as having negative value and their youth as crap throw-ins that can't get any real players in return.

When was the last time the Rangers rumored to make a trade and the HF overestimated what they will get? Every time Ranger return is predicted to be a quarter of what it really turns out to be.