Hockey Prospectus Top 100 Prospects

[Coco the Monkey*]

Not sure who's worse - Pronman or BlueChip Bulletin?

 

[The Mauve Avenger]

I think this is a ranking that can go one of two ways. One is the path where if Pronman hits the mark on enough prospects on his list, then he will be looked upon as a genius. The other path will be like what happened to Project Prospect when they excluded Brett Lawrie from their 2011 preseason top 100 prospect list, where people will for a long time have the impression that he is had no idea what he was doing (even if some of the criticisms aren't entirely fair).

I can't wait to see how all these rankings look when compared to one another in a few years.

 

[Generic User]

My favorite team's prospects aren't rated high enough! I'm outraged.

 

[DeflatedFootball7]

I would have been happy with three Flyers in the top 100 but this list is atrocious.

 

[starling]

They should have included at least someone from San Jose

 

[Bank Shot]

I also never proclaim to perfectly know what creates possession. As I said in this thread I polled a few NHL executives and asked that question. I got some different answers, but there was certainly a small consensus. Combined that with my own knowledge and I attempted to look at tools I thought would drive possession. It's not scientific, but this is a subjective field.

I guess I just disagree with your assessment of which tools drive possession then. You seem to value European background and puck skills a lot more then I would.

A player like Filatov for instance is a guy who I feel is basically the poster boy for lacking possession skills is still pretty highly rated on this list. He's the stereotypical big puck skills talent, nothing else prospect and even if he starts putting up some points at the NHL level he's still probably going to be a passenger and not a guy that drives puck possession.

Its like comparing Robert Nilsson and Ryan Kesler. Nilsson clearly has better puck skills, but Kesler dominates when it comes to puck possession skills.

Kesler makes up for lack of all world hands by having great skating, anticipation, awareness, positioning, effort and grit, and he's a top tier puck possession player in the NHL at the moment.

I think these types of players (ie Landeskog) really take a beating on your list, for reasons that are contrary to what corsi is all about. It's not about finding the most talented, or flashy players, its about finding the most effective.

 

[Pietraneglo222]

Corey, did you switch Erixon and Rundblad by accident? I don't know what Erixon does better than Rundblad except being more stable in his own zone. Rundblad's skating, passing and puck handling is considerably better don't you think?

 

[vippe]

Corey, did you switch Erixon and Rundblad by accident? I don't know what Erixon does better than Rundblad except being more stable in his own zone. Rundblad's skating, passing and puck handling is considerably better don't you think?

I can certainly see Erixon being ranked ahead of Rundblad... While Rundblad posses skill that Erixon doesnt have, Erix is good at every facet of the game and has that.. I dont know... "safe" aura around him.. he's a defender you can trust at every thing which I dont think Rundblad ever will have.

That said Rundblad has a higher ceiling and if he reaches it he will be a helluva player

 

[TaLoN]

Meh, the list isn't horrible, it's not great... but glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks Granlund is the best prospect in hockey.

 

[Corey Pronman]

I guess I just disagree with your assessment of which tools drive possession then. You seem to value European background and puck skills a lot more then I would.

A player like Filatov for instance is a guy who I feel is basically the poster boy for lacking possession skills is still pretty highly rated on this list. He's the stereotypical big puck skills talent, nothing else prospect and even if he starts putting up some points at the NHL level he's still probably going to be a passenger and not a guy that drives puck possession.

Its like comparing Robert Nilsson and Ryan Kesler. Nilsson clearly has better puck skills, but Kesler dominates when it comes to puck possession skills.

Kesler makes up for lack of all world hands by having great skating, anticipation, awareness, positioning, effort and grit, and he's a top tier puck possession player in the NHL at the moment.

I think these types of players (ie Landeskog) really take a beating on your list, for reasons that are contrary to what corsi is all about. It's not about finding the most talented, or flashy players, its about finding the most effective.

I don't think that's what I'm going after. While skills are rated highly for forwards, it's coupled equally as highly with hockey sense and the ability to create and be effective with your skills. Filatov was the hardest one to rank on this list. I talked to quite a few sources on him including those who saw him in Springfield this year, some told me to put him top 20-30, some told me get him off the list completely.

Probably on pure, raw upside he could be #1 however there's a ton of holes in his games (body hasn't developed that much, doesn't drive the net, poor along the wall, no defensive game, floats at times, overflashy etc.)

So in one hand I had elite upside, and the other hand I had a boatload of issues. I don't doubt that Filatov's possession game may suffer. I wrote in Ottawa's Top 10 Prospects that his projection was:

His ceiling is that of an All-Star winger who finds himself amongst the scoring leaders for a couple of seasons but will have to be protected usage-wise. However that projection is highly unlikely and his current projection is more of an above-average second line scorer with coaching protection, and that projection has a fair amount of variance to it.


http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1039

So I think it's most likely that he's an above-average possession player offensively albeit not great, but has to start like 53-56% of the time in the offensive zone and not play really tough minutes. There's also a chance he flat out busts. However that is in my mind a "risk beta" more or less that I attach to the value of his upside in the current market, how much the risk... and it's a big one.... devalues that upside and come out to where I thought he placed in the rankings. That part is kinda subjective, but again, this is a prospects rankings.

I guess ranking him right over Landeskog will look bad from the mainstream eyes. Landeskog is a prospect I've said a lot that I think may be the safest bet in the prospect world to end up a really good second line two-way winger however I really don't see top-line player there. When I look at the NHL marketplace (trade market, UFA market, draft market etc.) and see how much harder it is to get that top-end talent rather than the good 2nd line player, it justifies some of the risk that comes with Filatov. That's why throughout this list I really push upside. Players are somewhat replaceable once you get into the meat of a team's depth chart but getting top line/pairing talent on the cheap is what teams win with.

Corey, did you switch Erixon and Rundblad by accident? I don't know what Erixon does better than Rundblad except being more stable in his own zone. Rundblad's skating, passing and puck handling is considerably better don't you think?

Here's the other side of the coin. I think in pure upside Rundblad is a top 5/top 10 prospect unquestionably. As I'm sure you know his puck-moving skills and overall offensive upside is elite and scary at times. However I don't think Erixon is any slouch. He's not a dynamic player, but he's a pretty darn good puck-mover.

The overall hockey sense was a big separator. I'm not a huge fan of Rundbland's hockey sense. There are certainly come plusses to it such as his vision, offensive creativity etc. but he's a little too much of a gambler/risk-taking that needs to be addressed a bit. The defensive game is what it is too. It's come along from a few years ago, but it still needs a fair amount of work from a reads standpoint, especially considering his lackluster physical game.

Rundblad is the kind of player I think will end up leading his team in scoring from the blue line, play big minutes, but may not necessarily be the teams best defenseman. He might have to start in the offensive zone a lot and won't play against the other team's top players etc. I think there's a chance he comes around, because there is hockey IQ buried beneath him that he could take a big step forward but that too is a risk beta that you take into account and somewhat devalues that elite upside.

Erixon on the other hand, while being worse in a lot of the offensive areas isn't that much worse. In Erixon>Rundblad I think more highly of Erixon than I think lowly of Rundblad. Then when you bring in the fact his defensive hockey sense is tremendous, and his overall decision-making is top-end you have a player with top pairing skills who can really affect the possession game at both ends while starting a lot in his own end and playing against the opponent's best players.

While in the first question I said I really push upside, in this case I think Erixon has a lot of upside. Not Rundblad like, but just one or two notches down more or less and much less risk to his projection.

 

[Debrincat93]

Adam Almqvist ahead of gudbransson?

lmao.. their credibility, if they had any, was toasted right there for me.

 

[Midna]

Wow, Joe Colborne at 22. If he wasn't a Leafs prospect he could be top-5

 

[jake07]

Landeskog 39th and Elliot best defenseman in the whl last year 93th what a joke!!!

 

[msv957]

Having Kabanov at 14 and Kreider at 70 is beyond ridiculous

 

[His Beardliness*]

What I'm seeing is everyone complaining without any reason.

 

[HanSolo]

Oh dear lord that has to be one of the worst lists I've ever laid eyes on. I skimmed but even as a Ducks fan. Kyle Palmieri over Erik Gudbranson? Nah

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Well, I can't say that I agree with the list but at least he ranked Stephane Da Costa, who HF just apparently forgot about.

Some things that jumped out at me: #35 Galiev. I really like him but 35 ahead of players like Landeskog, Baertschi etc etc....

Connolly at #13....

Toffoli so low at 100. I'm completely biased being a 67s fan but you'd be hard pressed to find 5 guys on that list with better goal scoring upside than this young man. SO underrated.

 

[Depch]

Account self-deactivated

 

[Corey Pronman]

What I'm seeing is everyone complaining without any reason.

This more or less. I have no problem answering any and all questions posed to me about the rankings if a question is asked to me respectfully, but I don't have time for the other type of discussion. As said before I've laid out scouting reports on all these players, and there's a link to them in that article (although I think 30% are under a paywall) and my ranking method is clear. If you have a problem with a ranking, please see those reports first, tell me what about the report or ranking process (which some here have done) is wrong, and then let's have a debate.

 

[Strong Island]

This more or less. I have no problem answering any and all questions posed to me about the rankings if a question is asked to me respectfully, but I don't have time for the other type of discussion. As said before I've laid out scouting reports on all these players, and there's a link to them in that article (although I think 30% are under a paywall) and my ranking method is clear. If you have a problem with a ranking, please see those reports first, tell me what about the report or ranking process (which some here have done) is wrong, and then let's have a debate.

Haters gonna hate. Seriously, keep doing what you're doing and don't get discouraged by fanboys/armchair scouts.

 

[Coco the Monkey*]

Haters gonna hate. Seriously, keep doing what you're doing and don't get discouraged by fanboys/armchair scouts.

There's a difference between hating and criticizing something so awful

 

[Ladra]

This more or less. I have no problem answering any and all questions posed to me about the rankings if a question is asked to me respectfully, but I don't have time for the other type of discussion. As said before I've laid out scouting reports on all these players, and there's a link to them in that article (although I think 30% are under a paywall) and my ranking method is clear. If you have a problem with a ranking, please see those reports first, tell me what about the report or ranking process (which some here have done) is wrong, and then let's have a debate.

Hi Corey.

I see that you have placed Ryan Murphy at 20 and Jonas Brodin at 60. Over all I feel that you have some of this years prospects a bit high but no biggie. It was an interesting list.

How come you have ranked Jonas Brodin that low, IMO he has a great Hockey sense and IQ bar to none combined with a great smooth skating ability. Ryan Murphy on the other hand, I've only seen a few games of the Kitchener - but even if Ryan has some great offensive skills I wasn't overly impressed with his defense side.

So the question is more - how was your reasoning?

 

[AwesomePanthers]

This more or less. I have no problem answering any and all questions posed to me about the rankings if a question is asked to me respectfully, but I don't have time for the other type of discussion. As said before I've laid out scouting reports on all these players, and there's a link to them in that article (although I think 30% are under a paywall) and my ranking method is clear. If you have a problem with a ranking, please see those reports first, tell me what about the report or ranking process (which some here have done) is wrong, and then let's have a debate.

Fair enough. I couldn't find your prospect analyzes, but here is my question.

1. I think every Panthers prospect is too low (and that's not because I'm a fan). It's not just the Florida prospects I disagree with, but if 'd go through the hole list I could probably write a book about it. I appreciate your work, but I think you were very harsh on the Panthers prospects.

- Jonathan Huberdeau: maybe #7 isn't bad, but both Strome and Couturier over the Memorial Cup MVP. What's your reasoning? It's not his ranking that is the problem imo, but more those two players over him. And don't get me wrong, I was super high on both of them before the draft, and still is.

- Erik Gudbranson: My biggest concern about your list. Last years 3rd overall pick, and scored the most goals by any Canadian defenseman in the WJC. He developed his offensive game this year, but scoring over twice as many goals as he did the two previous season (and he played only 44 games). How could he drop that much? I'm actually shocked, even if he had a terrible season he would still easily be in the top30. Biggest "mistake" in your ranking imo.

- Nick Bjugstad at #82, he had mono so his production didn't start well, but he finished really strong. He has a sick upside, but wasn't drafted as high because he was a project at the time. He possesses so much skill and his size makes him a dominating player on the ice. Also here I wonder how the 2011 18th overall pick can be so low.

- Drew Shore: Amazing year, a steal from the 2010 draft imo. Did you see his sick goal in the WJC, he has it all. He could have made the team this year. Ranked 80th on your list.

- I don't see any Quinton Howden who scored 40 goals for MJ, and also played well for team Canada at the WJC. And also Alex Petrovic, who had a monster year in Red Deer. Mike Santos (Cats assistant GM) said Petrovic had the same chance to make the NHL this year as Gudbranson. Why aren't they there?

- When I see Grimaldi at 36, which is very talented, but yet small, the rankings surprise me even more. I'd have Bjugstad, Howden, Petrovic and Shore over him at this point. So Bjugstad, Shore and Gudbranson are all WAY to low, Grimaldi maybe a bit too high, and Petrovic and Howden should definitely make the list.


2. And for the organization rankings? Detroit #1? That's a major mystery for me. Yeah, I agree they got some steals in Pulkinen and Tatar, but still they aren't even close to be #1. And Florida with three bluechipers and probably the deepest prospect-pool after Dale Tallon had 21 draftpicks the two last years.

I really have a hard time seeing these rankings as "objective" without some sort of base here. Your love for Red Wings is pretty clear imo. Yes, I'm a Florida fan, but still trying to be critical to my own team. But there is no way Florida isn't #1 (or maybe #2 behind Ottawa). I really would like a good explanation how you can rank Florida 9th with prospects like: Markström, Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Bjugstad, Howden, Grimaldi, McFarland, Petrovic, Brittain, Bengtsson, Trocheck, Shore, Donskoi+++. Deepest pool, and most bluechippers, but still just 9th on your list.

A good answer would be much appreciated. Thanks.

 

[Corey Pronman]

Haters gonna hate. Seriously, keep doing what you're doing and don't get discouraged by fanboys/armchair scouts.

It's not a big deal. You work in a public aspect in a pretty subjective field you get a thick skin pretty quickly. No problem if people have an issue and want to debate respectfully. To say I'm wrong though, I just want them to cite what information I've used that is wrong.

Hi Corey.

I see that you have placed Ryan Murphy at 20 and Jonas Brodin at 60. Over all I feel that you have some of this years prospects a bit high but no biggie. It was an interesting list.

How come you have ranked Jonas Brodin that low, IMO he has a great Hockey sense and IQ bar to none combined with a great smooth skating ability. Ryan Murphy on the other hand, I've only seen a few games of the Kitchener - but even if Ryan has some great offensive skills I wasn't overly impressed with his defense side.

So the question is more - how was your reasoning?

Murphy is a guy I've been very high on placing him 6th on my board during the draft. He's got plus handling and passing skills, great offensive IQ in some aspects and of course the elite skating ability. The downside obviously is the risk taking is an issue, on top of a fringe physical game that hinders his defensive value.

It's funny I just talked in the last question on this page about Rundblad's high upside and the risk he comes with because Murphy is more of the same but accentuated. I'd say his raw upside may be top 5-7 on that list but his projection variance is pretty wide due to his developmental uncertainty. There are signs that his hockey sense may be an all-around high-end tool when you see his tremendous vision, instincts and creativity, but how much that aspect develops into his all-around game will define his value going forward. All in all you're looking at a dman with all-star upside, and a floor of a 4-5 specialist type. Despite that wide range, the value he can deliver on the upper tick is too much to ignore and that's why I have him way up at 20 as finding prospects with even a chance at that is very rare and desirable in the current market.


Brodin is a safe projection into the league, like I said to the last Wild fan I've heard from NHL sources that think he'll fast track and be in the league by 2012-13. Brodin as you mentioned is a plus thinker and an above-average skater. I think he has a very safe projection onto a second pairing and I'd say he likely ends up a fine #3 dman in the league. While he's not a dynamic off player, he certainly has fine puck-moving skills. The only real issue with him is his physical game. He's a fine package, but not enough top-end abilities outside of his hockey IQ which I love and gives him a great amount of value---- to push him into a top-tier type of prospect.

In terms of projectability Brodin is much better than Murphy, but in terms of potential value Murphy is ahead by a mile and I don't think this is a case of Murphy having a small chance of achieving a fair portion of his upside.

@AwesomePanthers: Heading out to watch the Mayweather fight, will get to your questions later.

 

[Mr Lahey*]

NHL sources, eh?