Hockey Prospectus Top 100 Prospects
- Thread starter BeardyCanuck03
- Start date
HighLifeMan
#SnowyStrong
- Feb 26, 2009
- 7,295
- 2,467
Quite honestly one of the worst prospect list I have ever seen.
I am not usually one to complain, but this list seems....off.
I am not usually one to complain, but this list seems....off.
Well this is going to get into a matter of opinion. I don't discredit physical game, but yes I certainly think at least for forwards puck skills and hockey sense are much more important.
Before I did the rankings, I polled some NHL execs from a few teams about what qualities they thought drove possession. I did get answers like "skating and physical game", but most of the answers were along the lines of hockey sense, puck skills, puck control, puck-moving skills etc.
There's no way for either of us to prove each other right or wrong on that front. I tried to use a wisdom of crowds approach amongst authoritative figured and combine it with my own knowledge. You seem smart enough to have properly developed your own method/theory. Unless one of us can change the other's theories, this really is a dead argument.
I don't think that's it at all. Corsi is the primary driver of results was a huge margin. The main issue at heart here worth debate is how does one achieve great Corsi numbers.
I was just wondering. For now then it's wait and see... who knows in a few years you may look like a genius.
People are going to praise him for "going against the grain" and everyone is entitled to their opinion.
But this, along with the organizational rankings are......bad to put it lightly.
But this, along with the organizational rankings are......bad to put it lightly.
Jtown
Registered User
rankings are just a form of criticism. Everyone has an opinion and critics are paid to give there opinion. While some critiques are just one man's opinion, this critic seems to have a system and style for his ranking. That is something i can appreciate. He does not just give a list of who he likes based on opinion but rather things that can be quantified and in this instance he is big on puck possession and how it translates to wins. That is more than HF rankings can say, whose opinions are just based on who knows what.
CrossCheck
Registered User
With this in mind, are you emphasizing the physical aspect for defensemen over hockey sense and puck skills? There is no way Brodin should be behind Scandella among the Wilds prospects unless this is the case. Not saying right or wrong, just trying to figure out where you're coming from. The only thing Scandella has over Brodin is size and possibly north-south speed.
I've read your prospect by prospect text and I found it pretty accurate on the rare guys I have seen play. I think people complaining on the consensus list should take time to read your report. It's an awesome read.
Great job !
Great job !
Coco the Monkey*
Registered User
- Aug 31, 2010
- 1,435
- 1
Pretty bad rankings my brotha. #2 overall pick goes 39 is just funny and sad at the same time.
The early bird gets the worm, and it looks like you were late, Pronman.
These rankings are just a way to get more hits on his site. Nothing more, nothing less. Do you think he would get hits if his lists weren't controversial? No chance, brotha.
The early bird gets the worm, and it looks like you were late, Pronman.
These rankings are just a way to get more hits on his site. Nothing more, nothing less. Do you think he would get hits if his lists weren't controversial? No chance, brotha.
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Roof Daddy
Registered User
- Apr 1, 2008
- 13,131
- 2,281
Eklund could have pooped a better list than that. I'm not sure what that means, its just how bad I feel this list is.
Coco the Monkey*
Registered User
- Aug 31, 2010
- 1,435
- 1
NeilYoung
Registered User
- May 7, 2009
- 4,994
- 0
He told me on twitter he has a Detroit bias.
Anyways some of its horrible some of its good. It does definitely have a bias towards very skilled players and ignoring players with skills like Landeskog or Coyle
Bank Shot
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2006
- 11,395
- 6,991
The rankings have an emphasis on the possession skill, due to the convincing studies in the hockey analytics world that shows that Corsi is representative of the possession skill and that Corsi is overwhelmingly the most important quality to consistently win hockey games that is under the team's control
I'm not sure how someone can say they based their rankings on possession skills using corsi methods, when there aren't any reliable stats available for prospects which can measure corsi.
The whole point of using the CORSI stats is to remove bias, but if you just assume whichever prospects have the best stickhandling skills will be the best at driving corsi, then that is using bias to project a different type skill onto a player.
T
I'm not sure how someone can say they based their rankings on possession skills using corsi methods, when there aren't any reliable stats available for prospects which can measure corsi.
The whole point of using the CORSI stats is to remove bias, but if you just assume whichever prospects have the best stickhandling skills will be the best at driving corsi, then that is using bias to project a different type skill onto a player.
T
yah ...like Kassian,,,,wrongola...brutal list.
how about JETS #7 overall pick...Scheifele
SmokeyDuck
Registered User
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 55,712
- 46,624
I see a lot of mentions of Corsi and puck possession as the criteria, but I don't see any sort of calculations for these prospects to actually show they have higher/lower Corsi ratings or any sort of actual statistical analysis that analyzes their individual puck possession skills.
If there are actually examples of this, could someone link me to the page? The criteria, itself, might have merit. But it's difficult to take the list at face value when we can't see exactly what the author is using to gauge why certain players rank higher when it comes to Corsi or puck possession compared to others.
If there are actually examples of this, could someone link me to the page? The criteria, itself, might have merit. But it's difficult to take the list at face value when we can't see exactly what the author is using to gauge why certain players rank higher when it comes to Corsi or puck possession compared to others.
No I am not. Brodin has a higher ceiling than Scandella, but Scadella's risk projection is much lower, if not one of the lowest in the prospect world amongst blue liners. His ceiling is that of an above-average tough minutes 2nd pairing guy and I have a lot of certainty he will get there and he may be ready for top four duty sometime this season although I won't put any definite statement on that front.
Brodin is advanced, and should fast track to the league (I've heard NHL sources say they think he'll be in the NHL in 2012-13) but there is some risk to him because of his physical game. Not just the fact he doesn't play the body, but his own physical attributes/frame and how much that comes along. It usually does, but that secondary risk with I'd say only a ceiling that is one tick higher than Scandella is enough to separate them in prospect value.
It was sarcasm.
I clearly said at the top I emphasize possession skill because Corsi is tied to possession and Corsi is what wins games, therefore you should scout for possession. I never say this is an objective stats-based ranking. I say the ranking process was derived from objective market-based studies, and the scouting information used to form those rankings takes it into account.
I also never proclaim to perfectly know what creates possession. As I said in this thread I polled a few NHL executives and asked that question. I got some different answers, but there was certainly a small consensus. Combined that with my own knowledge and I attempted to look at tools I thought would drive possession. It's not scientific, but this is a subjective field.
Galchenioretty
Galchenyuk 1 G in last 18 playoff Gs
It's nice to get a unique perspective instead of the same old regurgitated crap. I've been following Pronman for a while and there's a lot of logic and thought in his rankings.
