News Article: Hockey Prospectus': Final Standings Projections

[wgknestrick]

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=326

FWIW: their VUKOTA projection system is predicting the Pens are better than we think. They have been pretty accurate in the past couple of years. This is just for predicting final standings and not the cup winner.

Click to read more...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Aren't those point totals a little high? In both the 82 and 48 game point projections, only 1 team finishes below .500.

Edit: nevermind. It's not point totals, so I'm a little lost what those numbers represent.

 

[Bumpus]

I'd gladly take that.

Thanks for the link.

 

[wgknestrick]

Aren't those point totals a little high? In both the 82 and 48 game point projections, only 1 team finishes below .500.

Edit: nevermind. It's not point totals, so I'm a little lost what those numbers represent.

I am positive those are pt totals.

Are you forgetting 3 pt games in your math?

 

[Valarukar]

The order is more important anyways . . . not that it really holds any importance.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Oh great pressure is on already!!!

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Not surprising, the pens were 51-25-6 with Crosby only playing 22 games. Pens are going to be a powerhouse in the regular season. It's playing a team like Philly or Boston in the playoffs that worries me.

 

[Darth Vitale]

Meh. Predictions and odds and all the rest are useless unless you're a bookie. Don't feel good when my team is ranked high, nor bad when it's ranked lower.

 

[wgknestrick]

Meh. Predictions and odds and all the rest are useless unless you're a bookie. Don't feel good when my team is ranked high, nor bad when it's ranked lower.

That's what building a roster is all about though....Giving your team the best chance to win. Am I missing something? Nothing is ever set in stone.

This is as scientific and formulaic of a prediction you can get. Not a single opinion in it at all. Don't you want your team to have the best "chance" of winning as a fan?

 

[Skk82]

Scientific methods and whether or not you like predictions or not- one point this drove home for me is how intense and tight this 48 game season would be.

54 points in the standings means you're tied for 10th in the league and in the playoffs.
50 points means you're tied for 26th and out.

That's the difference of 2 games and it makes each and every game more important. This hockey season will be a lot more like the NFL games (where each one matters) than your random MLB game, where 1 game isn't a big deal for good or bad.

No matter what, there's not a big margin of error and every game could have that playoff type feel and mentality. Hopefully it brings out the best of the sport and not the over-coaching and block shots and trap mentality that's creeped back.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Hopefully it brings out the best of the sport and not the over-coaching and block shots and trap mentality that's creeped back.

I admire your optimism. Even if some might call it extremely hopeful.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Not surprising, the pens were 51-25-6 with Crosby only playing 22 games. Pens are going to be a powerhouse in the regular season. It's playing a team like Philly or Boston in the playoffs that worries me.

Agreed and i'll add the Rangers in there as well. Hopefully we can stay healthy

 

[wgknestrick]

Scientific methods and whether or not you like predictions or not- one point this drove home for me is how intense and tight this 48 game season would be.

54 points in the standings means you're tied for 10th in the league and in the playoffs.
50 points means you're tied for 26th and out.

That's the difference of 2 games and it makes each and every game more important. This hockey season will be a lot more like the NFL games (where each one matters) than your random MLB game, where 1 game isn't a big deal for good or bad.

No matter what, there's not a big margin of error and every game could have that playoff type feel and mentality. Hopefully it brings out the best of the sport and not the over-coaching and block shots and trap mentality that's creeped back.

If the Refs actually call the game per the rules, Pens shouldn't have a problem. They haven't done that very often unfortunately. Teams just have to make the playoffs and there still should be about 10pts between the top and bottom playoff teams.

Pens can't wait too long for MAF to find his chi or whatever it is he's missing (I personally think chi = talent).

 

[JWells16]

Back ups are going to be insanely important in a condensed schedule like this.