GDT: Hockey is back! Pre-Season game 1. Jets vs. Wild 7:00pm

[JetsUK]

There are likely a lot who never saw him play. I don't know a damn thing about PCS I just used my eyes. I must of watched him over a dozen times that season. And quite a few more in Kitchener. Didn't get any live viewings but to me it was always more about we likely could of had Clague and Johansen if we so wished, instead we got Stanley and Green which I don't see as being an equal pair. An opinion I still hold to this day. That is no knock on Stanley more a knock on the drafting strategy used.

I watched him a lot also early on. He weren’t no Serg but I always had the sense with him of a smart player held back by his size in some ways, and wondered how good he’d be at 6’ 3 with better mobility. In other words I think he’s more of a Lowry than a Boris Whosit or whichever hapless giant he’s being unfavourably compared to atm. Doesn’t make him Colton P but he may yet be a useful player a la Nurse, maybe less athletically gifted but a better hockey brain.

 

[garret9]

When will we see results from better models, that account more for context in junior production? This is particularly valid for production for junior defensemen. PP production is the simplest adjustment, which could be easily incorporated. Beyond that, I would think that production at a particular age is determined substantially by who else is on the team's defense, the style of play (defensemen in some systems score a lot more than in other systems), and the overall offensive productivity of a team.

I know that in statistical analyses a lot of these factors get evened out in the averages, but when you start to apply those averages to individuals it starts to become very dicey.

Stanley was clearly an underdeveloped "project" when drafted, but I think his statistical progress is underestimated because of context (lack of PP production by D on his team, lack of overall point production by D on the team, etc.).

I am certainly not arguing against statistical analysis - quite the opposite. I wish the statistical analysis was more refined.

Some already do take into account those things. Not sure about public work though.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Not only that, but when he scores a big goal, if the north half of the arena yells out "MARCO!" while the south half yells out "DANO!" we will have the #1 chant in hockey history.

There's been a few people that have suggested this in the past. If he got ice team I'm sure this would have caught on. I mentioned it last back in April

I've wanted "Marko" "Dano" to be a thing....like Marco Polo

Perhaps he could start it himself from the press box

I thought this was a first at the time, but some searching into this shows posts from guest users in 2016 bringing it up before @Daximus & @Puckatron 3000 played it November 16th against the Kings.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Beyak's co-caster pronounces Vesalainen fine so why does he say Vaselainen instead...

I was saying the same thing last night.

 

[AlphaLackey]

There's been a few people that have suggested this in the past. If he got ice team I'm sure this would have caught on. I mentioned it last back in April

I thought this was a first at the time, but some searching into this shows posts from guest users in 2016 bringing it up before @Daximus & @Puckatron 3000 played it November 16th against the Kings.

I mean, it's an idea so obviously great that it's a travesty it hasn't been done yet. The dude just needs to be a 4th line star to make it happen!

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I mean, it's an idea so obviously great that it's a travesty it hasn't been done yet. The dude just needs to be a 4th line star to make it happen!

I agree. Back during the 1.0 days there were always great nicknames & marketing ploys. The best 2.0 has come out with thus far is "True North"

If "Marko"....."Dano" manifested itself it would be the best crowd chant in decades!

 

[AlphaLackey]

I agree. Back during the 1.0 days there were always great nicknames & marketing ploys. The best 2.0 has come out with thus far is "True North"

If "Marko"....."Dano" manifested itself it would be the best crowd chant in decades!

If nothing else, you and I need to get antipode tickets and coordinate in advance. And do this every game until Dano scores a big juicy one. Lord knows I got the lungs to carry to the NW corner, I'm sure you got said to share it back

 

[Jet]

That's all little Nic Petan could muster after working all summer knowing that this is basically his last kick at the cat?

Oh vey. I guess my gut about him was right.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If nothing else, you and I need to get antipode tickets and coordinate in advance. And do this every game until Dano scores a big juicy one. Lord knows I got the lungs to carry to the NW corner, I'm sure you got said to share it back

I've got the pipes to keep up with you I'm sure

I only see 5-10 home games a year, however. Some of the guys I split tix with may be down to help the cause.

 

[garret9]

When will we see results from better models, that account more for context in junior production? This is particularly valid for production for junior defensemen. PP production is the simplest adjustment, which could be easily incorporated. Beyond that, I would think that production at a particular age is determined substantially by who else is on the team's defense, the style of play (defensemen in some systems score a lot more than in other systems), and the overall offensive productivity of a team.

I know that in statistical analyses a lot of these factors get evened out in the averages, but when you start to apply those averages to individuals it starts to become very dicey.

Stanley was clearly an underdeveloped "project" when drafted, but I think his statistical progress is underestimated because of context (lack of PP production by D on his team, lack of overall point production by D on the team, etc.).

I am certainly not arguing against statistical analysis - quite the opposite. I wish the statistical analysis was more refined.

Also, to my previous reply, even if they didn’t, that’s not much of a positive in this case IMO.

The numbers would then suggested that the scoring relative to age was about equal in all 3 seasons (slightly higher in D+1).

Did his confounding factors get easier on him, stay relatively the same, or harder on him?

I’d suggest similar, if not slightly easier.

It wasn’t like he was getting less PP TOI as he got older. Did he get less 5v5 TOI? Not really, no. As Daximus noted, and I can confirm, he was deployed and leaned on more offensively post trade than pre trade, and received a lot more passes from down low to the point.

That would suggest confounding variables should actually be inflating his PCS as he got older, if anything, not deflating.

Now, as an observer combining the quantitative with the qualitative, I’d suggest that Stanley is better than his PCS numbers. IE: I’d guess that if you took his quantitative cohorts and then ordered by qualitative similarities, the similar bin would be more successful than the dissimilar bin. And I think that the qualitative area is where Stanley has improved more than expected, while the quantitative has been more par as expected.

Prior to this development I had guessed in performance he’d be a 3rd pairing d with some chance of higher and a larger chance of lower. Now I’m starting to lean that he’s most likely a good 3rd pairing d but could be average or lower but I’m skeptical of the alternatives in either direction beyond that, although I want to see more of him after his transition to pro before I really make that as my opinion.

One thing to factor too is that the NHL is on the whole a lot more inefficient at judging defenders than forwards. There are far more below replacement level defenders than there are forwards, as a percentage. The eye test, even professional ones, really does struggle a lot more with defense than offense.

 

[Whileee]

Also, to my previous reply, even if they didn’t, that’s not much of a positive in this case IMO.

The numbers would then suggested that the scoring relative to age was about equal in all 3 seasons (slightly higher in D+1).

Did his confounding factors get easier on him, stay relatively the same, or harder on him?

I’d suggest similar, if not slightly easier.

It wasn’t like he was getting less PP TOI as he got older. Did he get less 5v5 TOI? Not really, no. As Daximus noted, and I can confirm, he was deployed and leaned on more offensively post trade than pre trade, and received a lot more passes from down low to the point.

That would suggest confounding variables should actually be inflating his PCS as he got older, if anything, not deflating.

Now, as an observer combining the quantitative with the qualitative, I’d suggest that Stanley is better than his PCS numbers. IE: I’d guess that if you took his quantitative cohorts and then ordered by qualitative similarities, the similar bin would be more successful than the dissimilar bin. And I think that the qualitative area is where Stanley has improved more than expected, while the quantitative has been more par as expected.

Prior to this development I had guessed in performance he’d be a 3rd pairing d with some chance of higher and a larger chance of lower. Now I’m starting to lean that he’s most likely a good 3rd pairing d but could be average or lower but I’m skeptical of the alternatives in either direction beyond that, although I want to see more of him after his transition to pro before I really make that as my opinion.

One thing to factor too is that the NHL is on the whole a lot more inefficient at judging defenders than forwards. There are far more below replacement level defenders than there are forwards, as a percentage. The eye test, even professional ones, really does struggle a lot more with defense than offense.

Remember, you are looking at his scoring relative to age. So opportunity and scoring gets easier for all junior defensemen, but it gets easier for some than others as they get older. For some defensemen, they age in a system that is very D friendly in terms of point production. In others, not so much. My point is that you need to adjust for age and other confounding factors.

I tend to agree with you about Stanley's potential. A good 3rd pairing D seems about right for the mid-point of his potential at this point. But unlike before, my sense is that his upward range of possibilities extends to a 2nd pairing status, while that is still at the tail of the probability distribution.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I hope Stanley gets in against the Oilers tomorrow night. I would love to see what happens when he has to deal with McDavid

 

[LucianoBorsato]

I hope Stanley gets in against the Oilers tomorrow night. I would love to see what happens when he has to deal with McDavid

something like that

 

[MardyBum]

I hope Stanley gets in against the Oilers tomorrow night. I would love to see what happens when he has to deal with McDavid

ask and ye shall receive

 

[garret9]

I hope Stanley gets in against the Oilers tomorrow night. I would love to see what happens when he has to deal with McDavid

I don’t wish that upon any defender, of any caliber haha!

 

[Ducky10]

I hope Stanley gets in against the Oilers tomorrow night. I would love to see what happens when he has to deal with McDavid

Masochist!

 

[Tommigun]

ask and ye shall receive

Nice to see more of Stanley, Niku and Vesalainen!

Is Roslovic playing? Would like to see more of him at C.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

 

[sennysensen]

Hi guys,

After a brutal year, horrible summer, and crappy week starting with me yelling at the radio driving home last Thursday and turning it off in disgust, I've decided not to let Eugene Meldyk ruin my life long love of hockey and go all in with my 2nd favorite (now 1st) team, the Winnipeg Jets.

Perhaps you guys can cheer me up with some info about the Jets.

I like all the Jets top players, but Buffy is my favorite.

Can you get player number t-shirts in the new 3rd jersey style?

What are the cup odds? This has got to be year with the Jets best shot.

Go Jets!

 

[Aggie204]

Hi guys,

After a brutal year, horrible summer, and crappy week starting with me yelling at the radio driving home last Thursday and turning it off in disgust, I've decided not to let Eugene Meldyk ruin my life long love of hockey and go all in with my 2nd favorite (now 1st) team, the Winnipeg Jets.

Perhaps you guys can cheer me up with some info about the Jets.

I like all the Jets top players, but Buffy is my favorite.

Can you get player number t-shirts in the new 3rd jersey style?

What are the cup odds? This has got to be year with the Jets best shot.

Go Jets!

Hey welcome to the Jets forum! A lot of us have been thru dark times (Jets 1.0) so we know what it’s like to go thru pains with your favourite club.

The Central got even tougher this year, The Blues bolstered their team, Nashville is a SC contender and probably the Jets biggest rival. I think the Avs and Stars could make some noise this year. Wild is a crap shoot and the Blackhawks continue their downward spiral. But yes, the Jets window for winning has opened, and are heavy favourites.

The teams top 6 (Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler, Ehlers-Little-Laine) is no doubt top five in the league. The on going debate has been the chemistry of the latter, many posters here want that line broken up. They want to see Laine with Fefe (Scheifele has a ton of nick names here).

The bottom 6 will be interesting this year. The shut down line of Copp-Lowry-Tanev will stay intact (they are really effective, especially at home where they are deployed to take on the oppositions topline). Perrault-Roslovic-Petan/Dano/Vesalainen is the wild card. Will young Roslovic stay as centre? Will Perrault stay healthy for most of the year? And who of Petan/Dano (both not waiver exempt this year)/Lemuiex and Vesalainen will secure that spot and who is riding pine?

Morrissey and Trouba are our top D pair, they are exceptional at shutting down the opposing team. Now if they can layer more offense to their games, they would truly be one of the most dangerous pairings in the NHL. Myers-Byfuglien will be interesting to watch. Myers has moved up to the 2nd pairing and will be responsible for the left side (he is a RHD), he will have to cover Buff who is notorious for playing rover. Buff has made adjustments for the better last year, he probably doesn’t have to force offense since we have a formidable forward group now. The 3rd pairing is up for grabs. One of Poolman/Chiarot/Morrow will probably play with Kulikov (who is coming off surgery this summer).

Hellebuyck had a Vezna caliber year, where he broke the record for most wins in a season for an American goalie. We traded our backup, Brossiot and Comrie are fighting for that spot out of camp.

Our PK had improved leaps and bounds over the prior season. The PK units will probably stay the same, with parts of the first line and shutdown line playing most of it. The PP is the gem of the Jets special teams. Most plays go thru Wheeler at the half wall where he has many options. Scheifeles wrister at slot, Buff clapping bombs on the blue line, Laine sniping at Ovi’s office and Connor buzzing around. Little-Ehlers-Roslovic/Perrault-Myers-Trouba rounding out the 2nd unit.

The AHL affiliate, had 2 outstanding prospects. Niku won AHL defensive player of the year and Appleton won the Rookie of the year last season. Our prospect pool has been touted as one of the best in the last couple of years and voted 5th by media this season. Other notable prospects -Spacek, Lemuiex, Samberg, Berdin, Stanley, Suess (their are others)

A lot of the coaching staff and executives have been intact since the return to Winnipeg. Maurice and Cheveldavoff signed extensions last year.

In this corner of HFboards you’ll find real passionate fans and contributors. Some funny, some are trolls, posters who are crabby, people who are extremely optimistic. It’s the whole gamut. Have fun and take things here with a grain of salt. Glad to have you on board!

 

[Jets 31]

Hi guys,

After a brutal year, horrible summer, and crappy week starting with me yelling at the radio driving home last Thursday and turning it off in disgust, I've decided not to let Eugene Meldyk ruin my life long love of hockey and go all in with my 2nd favorite (now 1st) team, the Winnipeg Jets.

Perhaps you guys can cheer me up with some info about the Jets.

I like all the Jets top players, but Buffy is my favorite.

Can you get player number t-shirts in the new 3rd jersey style?

What are the cup odds? This has got to be year with the Jets best shot.

Go Jets!

Too bad you guys have such a goof for a owner , i feel sorry for Sens fans that they have to put up with this guy . Buff is a absolute blast to watch play every game , he will put a smile on your face at some point of every game . Welcome aboard the Jet train .

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I really REALLY hope we enter the season with this roster

Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ehlers - Little - Laine
Perreault - Roslovic - Dano
Tanev - Lowry - Copp

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers - Byfuglien
Niku - Poolman

Hellebuyck
Broissoit

EX: C/LW Petan, LD Kulikov, LD Morrow

Unfortunately I think we enter the year

Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ehlers - Little - Laine
Vesalainen - Perreault - Roslovic
Tanev - Lowry - Copp

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers - Byfuglien
Kulikov - Chiarot

Hellebuyck
Comrie

EX: C/LW Petan, LW/RW Dano, LD Morrow

Urgh depth matters.

 

[The Big M]

I really REALLY hope we enter the season with this roster

Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ehlers - Little - Laine
Perreault - Roslovic - Dano
Tanev - Lowry - Copp

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers - Byfuglien
Niku - Poolman

Hellebuyck
Broissoit

EX: C/LW Petan, LD Kulikov, LD Morrow

Unfortunately I think we enter the year

Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Ehlers - Little - Laine
Vesalainen - Perreault - Roslovic
Tanev - Lowry - Copp

Morrissey - Trouba
Myers - Byfuglien
Kulikov - Chiarot

Hellebuyck
Comrie

EX: C/LW Petan, LW/RW Dano, LD Morrow

Urgh depth matters.

Brossoit is looking pretty good. No way Comrie makes it especially since he is waivers exempt...and that's fine by me.

I don't mind it if Vesalainen makes the team.
I'm hoping Lemieux makes the team and forces a move.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Brossoit is looking pretty good. No way Comrie makes it especially since he is waivers exempt...and that's fine by me.

I don't mind it if Vesalainen makes the team.
I'm hoping Lemieux makes the team and forces a move.

I have no desire to have the Jets kill 1-2 extra minors per game. So I have no desire to see Lemieux on the roster. Until he can get even CLOSE to controlling his stupidity I have no desire to see Lemieux on the roster. It's ridiculous how the media laughed off his comments about how he said he wanted avoid being stupid to only last 2 periods. He is a penalty magnet that the Jets don't need.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Zero minor penalties his first preseason game