It's not an either/or thing.
Saying otherwise will lead others down the wrong path (although I understand that this would give you a competitive advantage, so kudos).
For what it's worth, what are the "useless stats" being mentioned here? Please list them. Looking back on the thread, I don't see very many specific statistics listed at all.
I guess just mainly the PK/PP stuff that was being mentioned. Also the historical 2v7, 3v6 etc seeding matchup stuff.
In my opinion all of that stuff is useless and can really lead you down the wrong road. There are many useful stats out there but every stat needs a thorough understanding of context and what it truly represents at its core. However, unlike the other major sports, no statistical analysis (I think, perhaps a very, very thorough one) can come up with an accurate line on a game.
I think a matchup analysis of personnel and coaching philosophies is the best way to approach creating a line, rather than look at numbers that fluctuate and don't represent actual ability or predict future results until thousands of minutes are recorded in that situation.
For example, here is a write up I did on a pre-season matchup from I think 2 years ago between the Wings and the Flyers
Valtteri Filppula-Henrik Zetterberg-Johan Franzen
Justin Abdelkader-Darren Helm-Todd Bertuzzi
Gustav Nyqvist-Joakim Andersson-Willie Coetzee
Tomas Jurco-Brent Raedeke-Francis Pare
Nicklas Lidstrom-Ian White
Jonathan Ericsson-Jakub Kindl
Brian Lashoff-Doug Janik
Ty Conklin
Jordan Pearce
vs
TBD
Just strictly looking at the Red Wing roster for this game, this is quite possibly the softest lineup the Red Wings could ice both at the forward position and on defense.
A "skill" 1st, 3rd and 4th lines are a recipe for disaster, especially when the 2nd line cannot eat up more than 15+ hard minutes like they will be playing in this game. Basically, there is not enough sheltered ice time to go around. The saving grace for them is Helm who is (in my opinion) the Wings 2nd most valuable forward at his role, behind only Datsyuk now. However, he has to carry a liability in Bertuzzi, who just doesnt fit on this line. Both Helm and Abby are going to be using their speed and bodies in a chip and chase forechecking game, which leaves Bertuzzi in no-mans-land. He is one of the slowest players in the league and needs a player like Zetterberg who plays more of a slow, controlled enter the zone and set up the cycle kind of game. Bertuzzi's best assets are probably his hands and size but he won't be able to utilize either on this line. Neither Abby nor Helm are snipers, nor do they have much puck skill, so it seems like just a bad mix of personnel.
The 3rd and 4th lines are going to be liabilities defensively every time they touch the ice. Gustav Nyqvist is the closest to NHL ready, but it's very difficult to anchor a line from the wing position. There just won't be enough center presence down low in the defensive zone, which is something the D look like they will need this game.
Finally, I'm probably one of the few who are down on Henrik Zetterberg. I love the guy, he's one of my favorite players but injuries have really hampered him. He has lost 2 steps over the last year and he can't shoot the puck anymore. His best shot is now his backhand, which is still decent, but only so many goals can be scored on your backhand. He used to be a threat on the rush and in transition, but now he is extremely easy to neutralize. A combination of being slow and not having a shot threat means defenders can just angle him to the outside and force him to pass it off. This is the reason that Hank's goalscoring has dropped the last 2 years. His back is really killing his shot and speed. I would dare say that Hank would be in tough to score 20 goals this year (and last year) if not for Pavel Datsyuk. Hank can't play power on power anymore, unlike what some people think after watching him match up with Crosby back to back in the SCF. He needs good winger support now, and good support from the D to be effective. Thankfully, it looks like he'll have that this game. Filppula, in particular, is a player who has the tools to take his game to the next level. He really needs to step up this year and probably become the Wing's 2nd best forward, but I've been waiting for him to do that for 2 seasons now.
On D, sure it probably looks strong for a preseason game on paper, but I expect them to be exposed tonight by a big, depth Flyers team. In my opinion, Detroit is missing it's two best ES and PK defenders this game, which are exactly the types of players that you want to have against a team like Philly. Couple this with the fact that this will be the first game that Nick and newly acquired Ian White play together, it will take some time for them to get on the same page. I expect White to be deferring to Lidstrom frequently tonight, even in situations where there is a better play to be made.
And quite frankly, Nick has declined. Last season was the first season in a long time that I didn't think he was at least a top 5 defender in the league. Honestly, I feel Kronwall is ready to surpass him and take over the Wings #1. This is coming from Lidstrom's biggest fan since the lockout. He was my model-defender, the gold standard that I measured others up to. Ironic, he won another Norris last year, but strictly off reputation and PP effectiveness, which he should still excell at this season. He is still a valuable player as a top 4 Dman obviously.
Kindl is going to be no more than a bottom pairing Dman in the league, and very mediocre at ES. Ericsson has shown flashes of being worth his new contract but needs to bring it consistently (I believe that he will take a stride forward this year). Of the top 4 dressing tonight, no one is really able to contain a cycle down low, which is the kind of game that Philly thrives at. It's really just a bad matchup.
Conklin is one of the better backups in the league, though. He should be better than the Flyer's goalie tonight.
There are a lot of "name NHLers" playing for the Wings tonight, but it is a bad matchup against Philly. This play will hinge on the roster that Philly dresses for this game as, obviously, they could put out garbage and the Wings take handily. Key players that I'm looking for:
1. Coburn, big physical defender with a good first pass and can transition nicely. He matches up well with every one of Detroits lines.
2. JVR, again a big body winger with speed, something that the Detroit D really lack this game. He will basically be free to put perimeter pressure on the Wing's defenders and drive them back deep in their zone, allowing the Flyers to set up possesion.
3. Nylander, for opposite reasons. If Nylander dresses, it makes me like Detroit a little more in this game. He will play the same game as Detroit's 1,3,4 Lines, which allows Detroit to match and beat with superior players.
4. Carle/Meszaros/Giroux/Briere - Obviously, just above average NHL talents.
5. Goaltender (Bobrovsky is a +, Leighton sucks. Bryz won't play back to backs in the preseason)
After you have gone through the possibly matchups you have to dissect the possible routes that the game will go. If, say, Philly struggles early then a mix up of personnel might happen. Who will go with who and what can Detroit do to maintain an edge over that. Do they have an easy line or pairing that can neutralize it instantly? etc etc
After that I think you have to create a line based on all the possibilities and compare it to the line offered by the book. Obviously, bet any discrepancies.
The key, obviously, is remaining completely unbiased and objective during this process. Bias can completely skewer and crush you in this game.
Well technically. I make some supplemental income betting on sports. Most of my profit comes from NBA totals, and MLB moneylines. I do not play NFL spreads/totals. This year I am looking to add the NHL to add to my betting arsenal.
Cantor gaming uses almost solely computers to make their lines. They had a report on E60 about them.
