Hockey Cards - Part III

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Larry Hanson, Mar 16, 2021.

  1. Krisbryantisbest Registered User

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    There is.

    There's plenty of user groups on social media and reddit where high end collectors drop low end for next to nothing. I do it all the time. You just gotta know where to look.
    Because most of the hardcore know these prices are a facade.

    Example-

    Kane YG's raw are around 300 on Fleabay. This time next year once the pandemic is completely gone, they will be around 150 at best.

    As someone with years in this hobby, I know it's a roller coaster and would dump Kane's at 200 on the marks trying to gamble.
    And now you lost credibility.

    A card is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. eBay is nothing but an internet swap meet and isn't the place for selling high end.

    No matter what anybody wants to think, ebay isn't the gauge of the market. High end sales are and the prices trickle down to low end ebay dealers trying to make a buck on their small fry.
    No, it's not.

    Haha

    There's nothing scarce within anything current outside of low numbered cards that were produced to be scarce.

    A PSA 10 Kane future watch isn't scarce, there's 999 of them made and since the market is ridiculous right now nobody will blow a stupid amount of money on a 10 when they can buy a raw for a fraction of the price.

    See what I did there? You can get a Kane Cup rookie where's there's only 99 of them that will appreciate better in the long run then a psa 10 FW.

    But hey, to each his own. I said before I'm not impressed with low end cards or sales.
     
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  2. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Who wants low end anything? Sellers have started sending me low-end product autos as filler and freebies.

    They are selling for that amount. It isn't a facade, what you are describing is a bubble. When you buy at the top of the bubble you are still paying real money for that asset and the seller still gets real money in return.

    Anyone with access to $150 Kane YGs would simply buy all of them, list them on eBay for $300, and double their money instantly.

    A good is worth whatever a buyer is willing to pay for it? And eBay acts as a market where buyers and sellers can meet and swap money for goods? A place where a supply of cards meets a demand of buyers? That sounds like an example of a free market?

    The other option appears to be Facebook groups. I understand that people also do business on Instagram. Everyone that I know on Facebook and Instagram are not people who I would consider professional.

    If there is nothing scarce about a PSA 10 Kane Future Watch then why can I only find one readily available on the internet and the price is $14,950? I don't think anybody is paying $15k for it. But being akin to a veblen good, I have a strong opinion that the interest in that card is higher at $15,000 then it is at $2,000. Not my interest or your interest, but to the very few "whales" out there who could drop $5-10k on it without blinking. When I am buying cards for investments I buy with this person in mind.

    I'd say 50% of my collection is Cup RPAs and 45% is Young Guns and 5% is FW RPAs. You are arguing with somebody else over YG vs. Cup. I see merit in both arguments, but I 100% believe that the demand for Cup cards is buoyed heavily by a broader, collective interest in Young Guns. They help each other.
     
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  3. GreatSaveEssensa Registered User

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    Thank you. Unlike the other guy you are actually making valid points and not coming across as a major dick head in the process.
     
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  4. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    No one will sell you in demand cards for cheap on facebook/forums whatever else.
    They even ask dumber prices than Ebay a lot of times.

    No one off Ebay will sell you a PSA 10 Kane for a good price.
    Why would they?

    At best you might get 10-15% off in cash deal based on fees.

    There's only 30 psa 10's and that pop count won't be increasing by much.
    If you've been in this hobby long enough you would know that Gretzky psa 10 is worth a lot more than a psa 5 and no one wants to buy raws for a premium.
    This is the same thing.
    No one is stupid enough to buy high Grade Gretzkys for huge money when they could buy a raw for fraction of a price...

    Grading has changed the game. Like it or not.
    Raw cards are great for $20 ones.
     
  5. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    Kane was always worthy of grading.
    The reason not that many were graded is because most are damaged and would not graded high.

    So you think Crosby/Ovechkin future watches are high too because of Covid?
    They should be 50% cheaper in a year when covid is done right?

    The players that will drop are ones that fail to meet expectations which is going to 90% + of them but not HOF players.
     
  6. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    Barkov never sold well and Mackinnon always has.
    Hobby good and Hockey good are two different things.
    Barkov can score more goals/points and win a cup and he'll still sell for less than Mackinnon.

    Eventually the market will catch up but always.

    Obviously I sold all my Mackinnon's already.
     
  7. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    Cup is dead for the most part. Fake patches and thick ungradable cards are out.

    Aaron Ekblad cup /99 used to be $1500 now $150
    Aaron Ekblad spa /999 used to be $60 now $30

    You don't want to know what a PSA 10 /999 spa sells for...
     
  8. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    No one truly knows. If you say you do then you are lying.
    Because you can't check every ebay transaction to see if real money went thru because Ebay would never show that.
    Any pwcc/probstein auction is most likely schilled.
     
  9. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    You know every house in Canada is basically a million dollars now so they can all take equity out and buy as many hockey cards as they want.
    Everyone is a millionaire...for now.
     
  10. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    You'll probably have a good laugh when a Chara future watch PSA 10 sells for $2000.
    Not even auto or numbered.
     
  11. Satan The Rob Father

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    This thread was giving me a headache until @AndreiThreeK started making some rational posts
     
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  12. Fataldogg Registered User

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    I wouldn't say eBay is a swap meet for low end cards. A Michael Jordan PSA 10 rookie just sold for $375,000. That might not be "high end" for some of you, but that is extremely high end for 99% of the U.S. population. Then you have Tom Brady rookie cards selling for over a quarter million on eBay.

    LeBron James selling for $5.2 million isn't the rule, its the exception. Most cards, regardless of the auction venue, will never go for that price. So, I think we can't use that as the benchmark.

    So, I guess the question is, what is a "high end" card?
     
  13. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Ekblad is one of the worst examples you could present. A card that was extremely overvalued due to draft position, a defender, playing a boring style on a low-market team.

    I would bet Auston Matthews Cup RPA went the opposite direction over a similar time period.

    I have a whole investment thesis on cards that has paid off well but it also helps that general interest has boomed in the past year. It has more to do with exploiting short-term market inefficiencies than my emotional appeal to players or what I "think" the market should do. @Rorschach really hit the nail on the head with his informative historical overview.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
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  14. Telecaster Registered User

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    I bought 1 pack e-pack of UD series 1 just to check it out and got a Lafreniere YG right away, then bought a box and got 1 more. Also got 1 Adam Fox YG in that box. Then got a box of Team Canada Juniors 2020 and got a couple of nice ones. Ty Smith Golden futures auto parallel i guess would be the best one.

    Anyone want 1 of the Laf YG's for something in the same range? Preferably a Swedish player.
     
  15. Mick Eggamuffin Registered User

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    Which group on facebook is legit or good to join?
     
  16. Kcb12345 Registered User

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    How exactly did you manage to get an Adam Fox (YG is from last year) and a Lafreniere yg in the same box?
     
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  17. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    That's not the point.
    The card went way more down proportionally.

    If a Matthews future watch comes out at $1k and goes to $10k
    Then a Cup rc that comes out at $10k should in theory be $100k right...
    But it never ends up like that.

    Mackinnon Cup /99 started around $8k cad and his Future watch was around $150. cad.
    When it went down the Cup /99 went to $1500 and future watch to $75.

    Now that it has gone up the Cup /99 is around $10-$12k and the future watch $3k-$5k depending on condition.

    So in theory the Cup /99 Mackinnon should be $200k lol
     
  18. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    Ovechkin fwa bgs 9.5 used to be $300 now $15k cad
    At the time his Cup /99 was around $10k

    You think you can get $500k for a Ovechkin Cup /99 now? No Chance.

    So buying every possible graded YG/Fwa was a better investment than 1 Cup /99 for the same price.
     
  19. OvieGreat8 Registered User

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    Krispy probably buys houses for 40% off during a bidding war too...
     
  20. GreatSaveEssensa Registered User

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    Of course he does, just not on ‘Fleabay’
     
  21. Telecaster Registered User

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    Ah you're right, thats was from my 19-20 box i got. Sorry.
     

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  22. Kcb12345 Registered User

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    Ah well still, nice pulls!
     
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  23. ted2019 Know your History

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    Serious question: Why do people still buy wax when it's sooo much easier and a lot cheaper to buy singles that you want or need? You could spend $200 on a rookie or spend $2000 on wax and still not get said rookie. I'm a low-end collector who use to be a big time collector of 50's singles and got back into things and I like to prospect. Started last year with Adam Fox, Oliver Walhstrom and Igor Shesterkin and a few others. Made some nice money and then I got the wax bug, got a bunch of 2019 series 1 retail from last year and did decent, but not what I wanted, so I went back this year to buying singles of a few players. I understand stand that it's "fun and exciting" to rip own boxes of wax, but sometimes your wallet calls uncle and you need to use your noggin and go back to what you want to collect.
     
  24. Rorschach Fearful Symmetry

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    I wish I could show you my non-PC collection, accumulated by 99.99% busting Upper Deck wax from 2005 to 2017-ish.
     
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  25. Eggtimer Registered User

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    FWA is a very desirable true rookie . Hard signed autographs (for the most part ) and has been around and is established. I consider it one of the best bang for the buck rookies.
    I am kicking myself so bad for not judging the market . I has an insane collection that I got into just before it exploded here recently . At one point I had Mcdavid FWA black / gold auto , there fwa BGS 9.5 all true gem 9.5’s , Ice /99 BGS 9,5 , Yg silver foil BGS 9.5 , 2x YG BGS 10 , premier rpa and several raw YG’s . Not to mention P.Kane cup RPA BGS 9 - at that time was the highest graded there was (tied with a few others at BGS 9) had a 3 c patch for crest . I had two Draisaitl Oil drop patch cup RPa , BGS 9.5 3 c etc etc etc . I more or less sold most at the exact wrong time before things exploded . Ovie YG BGS 9.5 true gems I bought for 300 CAD and sold for $550 USD thinking there was no way his Yg could go up that much more.... I sold his fwa BGS 9.5 and bought a MacKinnon fwa BGS 10 and pocketed the change. Now the Ovie fwa is $$$ . No clue on what the Mack fwa is but am going to hold onto until the Avalanche win the cup lol.
    For now I just PC Jack Hughes . I have his YG exclusive jersey #86/100 , ice premieres /99 x5 , fwa inscribed , fwa raw x5 . The cup RPA 3 colour and YG BGS 10 x2 .
    I left an astronomical amount of money on the table by selling too soon. I feel like I am going to puke right now.
     

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