Historical examples of Kucherov's and McDavid's current seasons

daver

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There is a lot of narrative that Kucherov is benefiting from playing on an era-best team propelling him to what would be his best season ever.

There is also a lot of narrative that McDavid's numbers are deflated (even though by all measures his season this year is about at the same level of previous two seasons) by playing a team with era worst offensive support aside from Draisaitl. The assumption seems is that he should be getting better every year as he gets older.

Are there any historical examples of an elite player's production either being clearly elevated or lowered by the quality of their team/linemates.

It seems like Wayne, Mario, Jagr, and Crosby all produced consistently regardless of the strength of their team or linemates. A player like Yzerman produced more on less talented teams rather than the powerhouse Wings.
 

BigBadBruins7708

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playing with Adam Oates elevated Brett Hull to being 1 of 3 players ever to top 80 goals in a season...the other 2 being Mario and Wayne

Hull's 86 are behind only Gretzky's 87 and 92, and 1 ahead of Mario's 85.

Only 2 players appear more than once in the Top 10 goal scoring seasons...Gretzky (1, 2, 8, 10), and Hull (3, 9)

Hell, all 3 of Hull's far and away best seasons scoring were with Oates. Without Oates, he tops out at 57 goals and only has 2 50 goal seasons.

With Oates he scores 86, 72, 70

also, to a much lesser degree, Oates elevated Neely. Neely had multiple 50 goal seasons and was already Cam Neely before Oates came to Boston, but it was with Oates that Neely scored 50 in 44
 
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wetcoast

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Phil Esposito is the first player that comes to mind although he played with Hull in Chicago.

Bobby Orr tilted the ice in his favour.
 

Troubadour

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playing with Adam Oates elevated Brett Hull to being 1 of 3 players ever to top 80 goals in a season...the other 2 being Mario and Wayne

Hull's 86 are behind only Gretzky's 87 and 92, and 1 ahead of Mario's 85.

Only 2 players appear more than once in the Top 10 goal scoring seasons...Gretzky (1, 2, 8, 10), and Hull (3, 9)

Hell, all 3 of Hull's far and away best seasons scoring were with Oates. Without Oates, he tops out at 57 goals and only has 2 50 goal seasons.

With Oates he scores 86, 72, 70

also, to a much lesser degree, Oates elevated Neely. Neely had multiple 50 goal seasons and was already Cam Neely before Oates came to Boston, but it was with Oates that Neely scored 50 in 44

Luckily, we know that without Oates, from 11/04/1990 till 12/15/1990, Hull scored 16 goals in 18 games.

And we also know that Hull scored 15 goals in 18 games following the Oates trade in February 1992.

It's a sample decent enough to confidently state that Hull coped with the absence of his VIP center pretty well. Well, well enough to believe his peak as a sniper coincided with playing on the line with Oates (who also had his first 100-point season after he got paired with Hull).

I mean... 31 goals in 36 games is a 0.86 GPG pace. That's good enough for 70 goals in 82 games.

I don't think that specialists such as elite passers and elite snipers are the examples Daver has been looking for.
 

Troubadour

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I would say from casual observation, that the correlation between production and quality of linemates is not early as strong as most believe.

I beg to differ. It is there. But since the impression of quality as we perceive it is often created by a specific chemistry between specific players, it's sometimes hard to determine which linemates are "quality" and which are "junk".

In general though, Kariya produces better with Selanne than without him and vice versa. Jagr produces better with Lemieux than without him and vice versa. I'm sure McDavid would produce better when paired with an elite linemate with a suitable style.
 
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BigBadBruins7708

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Luckily, we know that without Oates, from 11/04/1990 till 12/15/1990, Hull scored 16 goals in 18 games.

And we also know that Hull scored 15 goals in 18 games following the Oates trade in February 1992.

It's a sample decent enough to confidently state that Hull coped with the absence of his VIP center pretty well. Well, well enough to believe his peak as a sniper coincided with playing on the line with Oates (who also had his first 100-point season after he got paired with Hull).

I mean... 31 goals in 36 games is a 0.86 GPG pace. That's good enough for 70 goals in 82 games.

I don't think that specialists such as elite passers and elite snipers are the examples Daver has been looking for.

a 30 game sample is nothing. Oates elevated Hull's output by nearly 30 goals per season

to your last point.

Are there any historical examples of an elite player's production either being clearly elevated or lowered by the quality of their team/linemates.

elite player: Brett Hull
production clearly elevated: 50 goal scorer to 80 goal scorer
quality of linemates: occurred when paired with Adam Oates
 

daver

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I beg to differ. It is there. But since the impression of quality as we perceive it is often created by a specific chemistry between specific players, it's sometimes hard to determine which linemates are "quality" and which are "junk".

In general though, Kariya produces better with Selanne than without him and vice versa. Jagr produces better with Lemieux than without him and vice versa. I'm sure McDavid would produce better when paired with an elite linemate with a suitable style.

In terms of raw points, yes. But I would say that Jagr was just as productive, relative to the league, in 98/99 and 99/01.

His 95/96 and 00/01 seasons can be argued were affected by the presence of Mario but it can also be argued that Jagr could have produced that on his own.

What I think this example does show is how an elite player's production is not necessarily improved with an almost as elite linemate/teammates.

But as you point out, this is more about being surrounded by a great or crappy team rather than who is on your line.
 
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Troubadour

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a 30 game sample is nothing.

A 36-game sample is most definitely not "nothing".

During 90/91, Hull played 19 games without Oates, scoring a total of 18 goals. That's about 75 goals in 80 games.

With Oates, he played 61 games and scored 68 goals. That's about 89 goals in 80 games.

The difference is clearly there. And I believe it perfectly illustrates the extent by which you overestimate Oates and his impact on Hull's production.

Oates added about 15-20 goals a year. Even without him, it's reasonable to think Hull would have peaked at about 70 goals a year.
 
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sr edler

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There is a lot of narrative that Kucherov is benefiting from playing on an era-best team propelling him to what would be his best season ever.

There is also a lot of narrative that McDavid's numbers are deflated (even though by all measures his season this year is about at the same level of previous two seasons) by playing a team with era worst offensive support aside from Draisaitl.

Didn't some people say this about Kucherov when he played on the Triplet Line too? They thought Tyler Johnson (who is a good player in his own right, by the way) was the big talent/driver on that line.

Kucherov had a 100 point season already last year, despite slowing down significantly down the stretch. I've seen this stuff on the main board. They post threads there where they say Kucherov wouldn't score 70 points on this years Oilers team if he was switched with McDavid. Somehow Olli Jokinen had seasons with 89 and 91 points on the Florida Panthers, but Kucherov wouldn't even score 70 points playing with Leon Draisaitl and getting all the juicy ice time in the world.... okay, alright. Kucherov by this logic would amount to something close to the biggest fraud in history of sports.
 
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daver

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Didn't some people say this about Kucherov when he played on the Triplet Line too? They thought Tyler Johnson (who is a good player in his own right, by the way) was the big talent/driver on that line.

Kucherov had a 100 point season already last year, despite slowing down significantly down the stretch. I've seen this stuff on the main board. They post threads there where they say Kucherov wouldn't score 70 points on this years Oilers team if he was switched with McDavid. Somehow Olli Jokinen had seasons with 89 and 91 points on the Florida Panthers, but Kucherov wouldn't even score 70 points playing with Leon Draisaitl and getting all the juicy ice time in the world.... okay, alright. Kucherov by this logic would amount to something close to the biggest fraud in history of sports.

Pretty much this. I don't have an issue with differentiating between players who produce the same but have vastly different levels of support on their teams but reject the notion that a player, specifically an elite offensive talent would see a significant jump in their production if they played on a different team.
 

MXD

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Jean Beliveau vs. Andy Bathgate?

...But the whole "elevated" thing is... i don't know... Kucherov, like Beliveau, was the most skilled player on his line. It's safe to assume that both are/were not weighted down by their linemates, but "elevated" might be the wrong word to use here.
 

tony d

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Having a quality linemate does help but if you're talented enough I could be your top winger and you'd still put up a lot of points.
 
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MadLuke

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How much a team get on the Power play and how good the power play is I imagine must impact a first unit power play player a bit.

I am not able to get the when with other player on the ice, without other player on the ice stats (someone know where), but in McDavid case quality of linemate do seem really important:


3YKw7HE.png


He will create so many chance by minutes with is skating and playmaking, how good are is teammate to capitalize on them will probably matter quite a lot.

Almost twice has many goal getting scored when Draisaitl is with him on the ice, that must impact is points.
 

Dingo

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Didn't some people say this about Kucherov when he played on the Triplet Line too? They thought Tyler Johnson (who is a good player in his own right, by the way) was the big talent/driver on that line.

Kucherov had a 100 point season already last year, despite slowing down significantly down the stretch. I've seen this stuff on the main board. They post threads there where they say Kucherov wouldn't score 70 points on this years Oilers team if he was switched with McDavid. Somehow Olli Jokinen had seasons with 89 and 91 points on the Florida Panthers, but Kucherov wouldn't even score 70 points playing with Leon Draisaitl and getting all the juicy ice time in the world.... okay, alright. Kucherov by this logic would amount to something close to the biggest fraud in history of sports.
Glad you pointed that out. Ya, Johnson got all the credit that year. Was Palat the third?

Kucherov is sick.
 
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Midnight Judges

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It seems like Wayne, Mario, Jagr, and Crosby all produced consistently regardless of the strength of their team or linemates.

When was Crosby ever on a bad team and when did he ever have bad teammates?

They made the playoffs pretty easily without him.
 

barbu

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I beg to differ. It is there. But since the impression of quality as we perceive it is often created by a specific chemistry between specific players, it's sometimes hard to determine which linemates are "quality" and which are "junk".

In general though, Kariya produces better with Selanne than without him and vice versa. Jagr produces better with Lemieux than without him and vice versa. I'm sure McDavid would produce better when paired with an elite linemate with a suitable style.

It's just common sense that good players will feed of each other. I am not denying that. I am just saying it won't just be a factor as much as most people think it will be, unless said linemate is Gretzky or Lemieux.
 

grentthealien

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I think where Kucherov is really elevated is on the powerplay. The lighting powerplay is operating at 29% which is 8% is more than the Oilers who are at 21%.Kucherov has 45 powerplay points compared to Mcdavid’s 31 which is a 14 point gap. If Mcdavid played all 82 games he’d be on pace for 124 points 8 points less than Kucherov who is on pace for 132. So if you factor in Mcdavid playing a full season and preforming on a similarly effective powerplay the gap isn’t as big as the current gap is.

Now Kucherov is arguably the biggest part of that powerplay so he deserves credit for its success, but the amount of talent that exists on it can’t be ignored. From the personnel to the coaching staff everything seems to be clicking and the result is an all time great powerplay.
 

daver

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I think where Kucherov is really elevated is on the powerplay. The lighting powerplay is operating at 29% which is 8% is more than the Oilers who are at 21%.Kucherov has 45 powerplay points compared to Mcdavid’s 31 which is a 14 point gap. If Mcdavid played all 82 games he’d be on pace for 124 points 8 points less than Kucherov who is on pace for 132. So if you factor in Mcdavid playing a full season and preforming on a similarly effective powerplay the gap isn’t as big as the current gap is.

Now Kucherov is arguably the biggest part of that powerplay so he deserves credit for its success, but the amount of talent that exists on it can’t be ignored. From the personnel to the coaching staff everything seems to be clicking and the result is an all time great powerplay.

The idea that McDavid simply adds PP points to his ES totals would seem to have been proven untrue this year. He has improved his PP placing from T63 last year to 5th this year while his ES scoring has decreased from the clear of the pack #1 to T1st, marginally ahead of the pack. If he was 5th in PP points last year , he would have been close to 120 points if we believe that scoring more on the PP does not affect the way the rest of a player's season plays out.

We can look to OV in 09/10 as perhaps a good comparison to Kucherov this year as TBay likely finishes as the 2nd best offensive team since the lockout to the 09/10 Caps.

OV had clearly established himself as a top point producer before that season and took it to another level in 09/10 as did his team. Should we look at that season as OV doing it all by himself or was his PPG inflated a bit by his team being an offensive juggernaut? I think there is a bit of both but to state that as a reason to bring OV or Kucherov down to the level of a player with lower production is not reasonable, IMO.

McDavid is the type of talent that produces regardless which puts him on the same level of Crosby, Jagr, Mario, Wayne etc... There are no real examples of these players showing changes to their production except only in the rare case of when teamed up with up an even better talent as we arguably saw with Jagr and Mario.
 

bathdog

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A 36-game sample is most definitely not "nothing".

During 90/91, Hull played 19 games without Oates, scoring a total of 18 goals. That's about 75 goals in 80 games.

With Oates, he played 61 games and scored 68 goals. That's about 89 goals in 80 games.

The difference is clearly there. And I believe it perfectly illustrates the extent by which you overestimate Oates and his impact on Hull's production.

Oates added about 15-20 goals a year. Even without him, it's reasonable to think Hull would have peaked at about 70 goals a year.

I'm not opposing the idea that these two players fared better together, given their respective speciality, but I think you understand that you haven't really showed much from a numbers perspective. The first sample was a goal-post and an empty netter away from being equivalent to the second one pace wise. Everything from opposing team strengh differences to bad luck during the respective stretches can easily cause such variation.

It's just common sense that good players will feed of each other. I am not denying that. I am just saying it won't just be a factor as much as most people think it will be, unless said linemate is Gretzky or Lemieux.

Agree. It's something that seems really hard to quantify and every situation is highly individual. Gretzky or Lemiux, or when a "lesser" player gets to play with an elite offensive player the differences can be large enough to easier draw conclusions.
 

Troubadour

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I'm not opposing the idea that these two players fared better together, given their respective speciality, but I think you understand that you haven't really showed much from a numbers perspective. The first sample was a goal-post and an empty netter away from being equivalent to the second one pace wise. Everything from opposing team strengh differences to bad luck during the respective stretches can easily cause such variation.

:help:

(HINT: Context.)
 

sr edler

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How many assists would Oates have had without Hull and Neely?

I think Oates led the league with 97 assists (because Lemieux only played 60 games, but still) in 92–93 playing with otherworldly snipers Joé Juneau and Dmitri Kvartalnov.

So yes, Oates was still good without Hull/Neely and Hull still produced at a 70 goals a season clip in the early 90s with Pete Zezel & Big Mo. Can we move on from this now?

Neely is a bit different case because he didn't only have Oates or Slick Hands Janney but also at the same time a top 3 of all time offensive/all package defenseman in Bourque driving it from back ice/controlling possession.
 

Iron Mike Sharpe

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elevated - Pete Mahovlich playing two seasons with Guy Lafleur - 117 & 105 points

suppressed - Pat Lafontaine on the Islanders - second line minutes his first few years, then with the retirements of Bossy & Potvin + the decline of Trottier he was left to do all the scoring alone, without true first liners or blueline quarterbacks to support him
 

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