High-end International Prospects - scoring fluctuation?

[fazon]

Couldn't think of a better title, lol.

Why is it that International prospects seem to put up modest numbers compared to their NHL numbers? For example, why did Ovechkin put up 23 points in 53 games against easier talent in his draft year, 27 points in 37 games the next year, then come to the NHL and tear it up for 106 points in 81 games the next season? Is there less scoring over there in Russia, which I doubt since they play on bigger rinks IIRC. Did Ovechkin's coaches just play him in a smaller role with less ice-time or something? Did he really improve that much over the course of 1 year?

It's not just Ovechkin, here's just a few more:

Semin - 17 in 47 games in Russia, 22 points in 52 games the next year in NHL

Malkin - 47 points in 46 games in Russia, 85 points in 78 games the next year in the NHL

Steen - 17 points in 50 games in Sweden, 45 points in 75 games the next year in the NHL

Olesz - 13 points in 47 games in Russia, 21 points in 59 games the next year in the NHL

Bergfors - 1 point in 25 games in Russia, 40 points in 65 games the next year in the AHL

Click to read more...

 

[Duke749]

Bergfors? As in Niclas Bergfors?

 

[fazon]

Bergfors? As in Niclas Bergfors?

Yes.

 

[Duke749]

That makes him an even more odd player considering he can't do anything offensively in a defensive-minded system.

 

[Fulcrum]

It is harder to score on International sized rinks in those leagues. There are less shots per game as a result players spending much more time with the puck. There is MUCH less run and gun. It's more of a combination hockey with a slower pace.

KHL's leading scorer had 31 goals this past season in 51 games.

You should watch 5 minutes of any game and you'll understand why.

 

[fazon]

It is harder to score on International sized rinks in those leagues. There are less shots per game as a result players spending much more time with the puck. There is MUCH less run and gun. It's more of a combination hockey with a slower pace.

KHL's leading scorer had 31 goals this past season in 51 games.

You should watch 5 minutes of any game and you'll understand why.

Ah, I thought that open ice would lead to more scoring chances, etc.

 

[cenas*]

It is harder to score on International sized rinks in those leagues. There are less shots per game as a result players spending much more time with the puck. There is MUCH less run and gun. It's more of a combination hockey with a slower pace.

KHL's leading scorer had 31 goals this past season in 51 games.

You should watch 5 minutes of any game and you'll understand why.

31 goals in 51 games is 0.596 goals per game and that'd net you 48 in the NHL in a full season.

 

[Fulcrum]

And the all-time record for goals in a seoson in Russian elite/KHL league - *Drum Roll* 35!

NHL's recent highest being 65 for Ovi. All-time 92.

Anyway, you get the point.

 

[HTFN]

And the all-time record for goals in a seoson in Russian elite/KHL league - *Drum Roll* 35!

would you like to do the math for that?

Through 51 games?

That's 56 goals over 82, or this year's Rocket Richard winner.

 

[Gobo]

35/51 is a 0.68 GPG pace which would give him 56 goals in an 82 game season.

^He beat me.

 

[Fulcrum]

Well actually its 54 games. So it would be 53 goals in 82 games.

Mind you - that's per the ALL TIME RECORD!

 

[wwvdw]

Its mostly icetime I think and it probably would be the same for NA talents if they were playing against adults. If you take Bergfors for example, in his draft year he played 25 matches in the SEL (not Russia) and got 1 point. He also played 21 matches in junior and got 34 points. It just depends what kind of role you get on the team, there's not a lot of 17 year olds getting large roles in their draft year. Sometimes they do late in the season but then their PPG ratio is already screwed up. I think Järnkrok last year got all his 10 points in the last 15 or so games.

 

[HalbertGil*]

Olesz - 13 points in 47 games in Russia, 21 points in 59 games the next year in the NHL

There's only a 0.11 PPG difference. He also never played in Russia.

 

[fazon]

There's only a 0.11 PPG difference. He also never played in Russia.

Oh Czech Republic, my bad.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

It might have something to do with the smaller ice surfaces in NA. Takes less time for a player to get from one end of the rink to the other

 

[gifted88]

Not too much fluctuation in PPG...except Ovie. so it's pretty rare.

 

[Rob Scuderi]

Not too much fluctuation in PPG...except Ovie. so it's pretty rare.

But there absolutely is, Euros don't put up 70 points in their draft year like CHL kids can.

Tarasenko is widely viewed to be a high end prospect but in his draft year he only put up about .5 PPG. He was a mid first pick but that's viewed as a steal yet he didn't translate all that sublime skill into high point totals the way he would have say had he been in the CHL. Obviously there's a difference in scoring between high end talent based on their position either in NA or Europe. The only players with decent PPG averages in their draft year were Malkin and Ovi but it's clear that they're on a different level than most players so using them as an example of why there's little fluctuation is pretty silly. It'd be like taking Pat Kane's USNDPT and CHL numbers and expecting mid round North Americaners to match up.

Look at some other examples, Backlund put up a handful of points in like 15 games not in the SEL but the league below it. A few years later his best PPG average was 8 points in 17 games but mind you this was well after being worth of a first round pick. Those pedestrian totals in the second highest league in Sweden didn't spot him from being a PPG player as an overage in the WHL and his first season in the AHL he put up a solid 32 points in 54 games as a rookie.

How did he go from a career best .5 PPG average, in a very small sample size at that, in his homeland's not even best league to a first round pick who put up a PPG in the WHL and an ok rookie season in the AHL?

I don't really know the answers cause I'm not Swedish but my guesses would be lack of ice time and the fact that they face much stiffer competition than their North American counterparts. The CHL and NCAA are great developers but obviously it's much more difficult to face professional men playing the sport than kids your own age.