HHOF 2019

[Voight]

Oh, that's an interesting opinion. Can you show us how they were the Alfredsson of their generation? I look forward to reading through your rationale.

Thats not what I said.

The point is, if he gets in I wouldn't be shocked given they've let players such as the above 3 in. The standards aren't always as high as they should be.

They should stop inducting very good-but-not-great players but at this point I doubt they will.

 

[Chriscftb97]

Alfredsson, Gonchar, Mikhailov

 

[The Panther]

I definitely think Alfredsson both should and will get into the Hall of Fame.

Okay, so a Calder and one 2nd-team All Star, with no Stanley Cup, does not on the surface look like a Hall of Fame career. But, much like Sundin (with whom there are a lot of parallels), he was the captain and best player for a very long time on a competitive (Canadian) franchise. Offensively, he had eight point-per-game seasons and ten 70+ point seasons, mostly in the 'dead-puck era'. Once scoring levels went up suddenly in 2005-06, Alfredsson jumped to 103 points (at age 33!), which tells me he was probably around a 100-point player during his prime in most NHL eras. Then, you factor in his two-way play, his leadership, his consistency, and his being the go-to guy on his franchise from basically 1996 to 2010, and now he's a Hall of Famer. He also had some impressive playoff results, including leading the League in scoring in 2007 (a year when the Sens really should have won the Cup), including 4 goals in 5 games in the Finals. At age 40, he had 10 points in 10 playoff games (and bizarrely he even led the Red Wings in regular season scoring in 2014 at age 41)!

Punch his ticket!

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Oh, that's an interesting opinion. Can you show us how they were the Alfredsson of their generation? I look forward to reading through your rationale.

not the three guys mentioned in the post you’re referring to but federko isn’t a bad comp is he? or if you want a winger, middleton?

 

[LuckyPierre]

Alfredsson started out with a Calder, and finished his career Hall of Fame strong.

In terms of over the hill production, he's in rarefied air. 11th all time points (more than Gretzky!), 13th all time goals over 30, and 11th all time points, 7th all time goals over 35.

He's one of only 3 players all time to break the century mark at age 33 (Dionne and Jagr being the other two).

And he bookended his career by, as previously stated above, leading the Red Wings in points his final season. Incidentally, his production in his 41 year old season is surpassed only by Gordie, Jagr, and Selanne.

From having won a Calder to finishing his career in the distinguished manner he did, his career arc is a very impressive one.

Not to mention, leading scorer on a gold medal team aside, he's 24th all time in points for one franchise, with 1108 for Ottawa. All 23 players ahead of him are in the hall.

 

[trentmccleary]

not the three guys mentioned in the post you’re referring to but federko isn’t a bad comp is he? or if you want a winger, middleton?

Alfredsson was 4th in PPG and 3rd in points over a 10 season span.

I don't think either are particularly good comparisons. Neither producing at the rate (PPG) that you remember and if they got top-10's in points, it was because they stayed healthy while others got hurt.

Middleton, Larmer and Propp scored a 1,000 points in a 1,000 games. So did Alfredsson in a scoring environment that was a whopping 25% lower. If we're comparing his 1,000 points in his first 1,009 games to them; then I view them as having 750 points, not 1,000. Even Joe Mullen didn't end up producing appreciably more than what those first 3 guys did.

Federko's best 10 seasons run from 79-88. He's 11th in PPG and 5th in points because he rarely missed time due to injury and he's being compared to many more players who didn't play the full 10 seasons then in Alfredsson's sample. In Alfredsson's sample, Brad Richards at 14th in PPG stands out as an obvious comparison for Federko.

But what about Federko's 5x top-10 points finishes? ... Here's the problem with that; nobody is hitting those peaks at the frequency that players used to anymore. Joe Thornton only has 6 top-10 point finishes, but he's way above Federko as a player. I think that teams have historically built game plans around loyalty to their franchise players, which in some ways is how you wake up in last place wondering why the heck you've built a 1st PP unit around setting up a 40 year old Iginla like he's still in his prime. If it's a smaller league, franchise players have a better shot of remaining in the top-10 year-to-year. As it grows, there's more competition and a player like Federko would have been knocked out of the top-10 more often. --> If you try to start with a old time player and try to find active comparables, you'll see it clearly. You'd be lucky to find players with half as many top-10's that seem reasonably similar.

I get that there's a Gretzky and /or a Lemieux exception, but that exception doesn't extend to 15 other guys who played in the 1980's. Bossy, Stastny, Trottier, Kurri, Savard, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, Goulet, Messier... these guys are all just so unassailable that we'll never see others? They were so great that any other era's stars should just imagine themselves being lucky enough to finish 11th or 15th behind them if they were competing in the same era? No, that's ridiculous!

Alfredsson was 4th in PPG and 3rd in points playing 89% of the games in his 10 best season span.

If you remove Gretzky and Lemieux from the equation, there was a player who would have been 4th in PPG and 4th in points playing 91% of the games in his 10 best season span... Denis Savard

 

[The Panther]

He's one of only 3 players all time to break the century mark at age 33 (Dionne and Jagr being the other two).

You're forgetting a few guys there!:

- Wayne Gretzky, 130 points, age 33 (1994)
- John Bucyk, 116 points, age 35 (1971)
- Jean Ratelle, 105 points, age 35 (1976)
- Gordie Howe, 103 points, age 40 (1969)
- Wayne Gretzky, 102 points, age 35 (1996)
- Joe Sakic, 100 points, age 37 (2007)

 

[LuckyPierre]

You're forgetting a few guys there!:

- Wayne Gretzky, 130 points, age 33 (1994)
- John Bucyk, 116 points, age 35 (1971)
- Jean Ratelle, 105 points, age 35 (1976)
- Gordie Howe, 103 points, age 40 (1969)
- Wayne Gretzky, 102 points, age 35 (1996)
- Joe Sakic, 100 points, age 37 (2007)

I'm going off a list of 33 year old players, not 33+. Hard to forget Gordie putting up 103 pts as a 40 year old.

33-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

Another interesting stat as Alfredsson aged - he put up a better ppg as a 35 year old than Wayne Gretzky; and the second most goals in a season all time for that age cohort.

35-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Alfredsson was 4th in PPG and 3rd in points over a 10 season span.

[...]

Federko's best 10 seasons run from 79-88. He's 11th in PPG and 5th in points because he rarely missed time due to injury and he's being compared to many more players who didn't play the full 10 seasons then in Alfredsson's sample. In Alfredsson's sample, Brad Richards at 14th in PPG stands out as an obvious comparison for Federko.

i'm not prepared to respond to everything you wrote, but this part is where i'm a little confused. now i think we all understand the arbitrariness of looking at a player's ranking in total points and points/game in a player's best x years, because that is the player's absolute best sample and it's not necessarily the best sample of everyone else he is being compared to. but that caveat aside...


Current search:
For combined seasons, from 1978-79 to 1987-88, in the regular season, playing skater, sorted by descending Points.

Rk	Player	PTS	From	To	Active	GP
1	Wayne Gretzky*	1669	1979	1988	9	696
2	Marcel Dionne*	1087	1978	1988	10	772
3	Mike Bossy*	1035	1978	1987	9	679
4	Bryan Trottier*	994	1978	1988	10	758
5	Bernie Federko*	942	1978	1988	10	758
6	Peter Stastny*	901	1980	1988	8	603
7	Denis Savard*	851	1980	1988	8	618
8	Jari Kurri*	848	1980	1988	8	600
9	Michel Goulet*	837	1979	1988	9	687
10	Bobby Smith	823	1978	1988	10	758
11	Dave Taylor	818	1978	1988	10	688
12	Rick Middleton	796	1978	1988	10	730
13	Dale Hawerchuk*	752	1981	1988	7	559
14	Mark Messier*	747	1979	1988	9	647
15	Brian Propp	743	1979	1988	9	673

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Current search:
For combined seasons, from 2000-01 to 2009-10, in the regular season, playing skater, sorted by descending Points.

Rk	Player	PTS	From	To	Active	GP
1	Joe Thornton	823	2000	2010	9	698
2	Jarome Iginla	724	2000	2010	9	713
3	Daniel Alfredsson	723	2000	2010	9	674
4	Marian Hossa	683	2000	2010	9	687
5	Martin St. Louis*	659	2000	2010	9	703
6	Vincent Lecavalier	644	2000	2010	9	707
7	Ilya Kovalchuk	642	2001	2010	8	621
8	Jaromir Jagr	641	2000	2008	7	548
9	Brad Richards	639	2000	2010	9	700
10	Dany Heatley	625	2001	2010	8	589
11	Alex Kovalev	603	2000	2010	9	681
12	Markus Naslund	593	2000	2009	8	640
13	Pavel Datsyuk	592	2001	2010	8	606
14	Marc Savard	592	2000	2010	9	606
15	Patrik Elias	590	2000	2010	9	642

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Current search:
For combined seasons, from 1978-79 to 1987-88, in the regular season, playing skater, requiring Games Played >= 160, sorted by descending Points Per Game.

Rk	Player	PTS	From	To	Active	GP	PTS
1	Wayne Gretzky*	2.40	1979	1988	9	696	1669
2	Mario Lemieux*	1.77	1984	1988	4	292	516
3	Mike Bossy*	1.52	1978	1987	9	679	1035
4	Peter Stastny*	1.49	1980	1988	8	603	901
5	Marcel Dionne*	1.41	1978	1988	10	772	1087
6	Jari Kurri*	1.41	1980	1988	8	600	848
7	Denis Savard*	1.38	1980	1988	8	618	851
8	Dale Hawerchuk*	1.35	1981	1988	7	559	752
9	Bryan Trottier*	1.31	1978	1988	10	758	994
10	Guy Lafleur*	1.28	1978	1985	7	438	559
11	Paul Coffey*	1.27	1980	1988	8	578	736
12	Kent Nilsson	1.25	1979	1987	8	547	685
13	Bernie Federko*	1.24	1978	1988	10	758	942
14	Michel Goulet*	1.22	1979	1988	9	687	837
15	Dave Taylor	1.19	1978	1988	10	688	818

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Current search:
For combined seasons, from 2000-01 to 2009-10, in the regular season, playing skater, requiring Games Played >= 180, sorted by descending Points Per Game.

Rk	Player	PTS	From	To	Active	GP	PTS
1	Sidney Crosby	1.36	2005	2010	5	371	506
2	Alex Ovechkin	1.34	2005	2010	5	396	529
3	Peter Forsberg*	1.26	2000	2008	6	313	394
4	Evgeni Malkin	1.23	2006	2010	4	309	381
5	Joe Thornton	1.18	2000	2010	9	698	823
6	Jaromir Jagr	1.17	2000	2008	7	548	641
7	Joe Sakic*	1.10	2000	2009	8	526	581
8	Ziggy Palffy	1.09	2000	2006	5	289	316
9	Daniel Alfredsson	1.07	2000	2010	9	674	723
10	Dany Heatley	1.06	2001	2010	8	589	625
11	Nicklas Backstrom	1.05	2007	2010	3	246	258
12	Jason Allison	1.04	2000	2006	4	247	257
13	Ilya Kovalchuk	1.03	2001	2010	8	621	642
14	Jarome Iginla	1.02	2000	2010	9	713	724
15	Jason Spezza	1.02	2002	2010	7	464	475

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I get that there's a Gretzky and /or a Lemieux exception, but that exception doesn't extend to 15 other guys who played in the 1980's. Bossy, Stastny, Trottier, Kurri, Savard, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, Goulet, Messier... these guys are all just so unassailable that we'll never see others? They were so great that any other era's stars should just imagine themselves being lucky enough to finish 11th or 15th behind them if they were competing in the same era? No, that's ridiculous!

Alfredsson was 4th in PPG and 3rd in points playing 89% of the games in his 10 best season span.

If you remove Gretzky and Lemieux from the equation, there was a player who would have been 4th in PPG and 4th in points playing 91% of the games in his 10 best season span... Denis Savard

so federko = b richards and alfredsson = d savard? i think you're either underrating federko, overrating alfredsson, or maybe both.

if you delete all the players from alfredsson's 10 year sample six or fewer seasons, okay fine he's 4th in points/game. but who is immediately below him? heatley, kovalchuk, iginla, spezza. and immediately behind them, hossa, datsyuk, savard, sundin.

who are the non-generational players ahead of federko in his 10 year sample? bossy, stastny, dionne, kurri, savard, hawerchuk, trottier, old lafleur, coffey, nilsson. behind him, goulet, dave taylor, glenn anderson, messier, ron francis.

if i'm comparing their respective competition player-by-player, ignoring everyone who didn't play 70% of possible seasons, this is how i would go:

no equivalent / gretzky + mario

thornton + sakic / bossy + stastny + dionne + kurri + savard + hawerchuk + trottier

late and post-peak jagr / late and post-peak lafleur

iginla / messier

spezza / francis

datsyuk with pre-breakout years / young yzerman up to '88

hossa, savard, sundin / goulet, taylor, anderson

 

[trentmccleary]

i'm not prepared to respond to everything you wrote, but this part is where i'm a little confused. now i think we all understand the arbitrariness of looking at a player's ranking in total points and points/game in a player's best x years, because that is the player's absolute best sample and it's not necessarily the best sample of everyone else he is being compared to. but that caveat aside...

Every method has flaws and that's a result of trying to measure shifting targets (careers) over rocky terrain (wildly variable offensive eras).

On all the charts you've started by leaving the field too open with low playing requirements. Which means that you've increased the possibly that a high scoring season or two could take over the whole sample or that too many players who aren't really part of the generation are included. I choose a scoring rank, say 40th in points and I will remove everybody below that level.

so federko = b richards and alfredsson = d savard? i think you're either underrating federko, overrating alfredsson, or maybe both.

if you delete all the players from alfredsson's 10 year sample six or fewer seasons, okay fine he's 4th in points/game. but who is immediately below him? heatley, kovalchuk, iginla, spezza. and immediately behind them, hossa, datsyuk, savard, sundin.

who are the non-generational players ahead of federko in his 10 year sample? bossy, stastny, dionne, kurri, savard, hawerchuk, trottier, old lafleur, coffey, nilsson. behind him, goulet, dave taylor, glenn anderson, messier, ron francis.

if i'm comparing their respective competition player-by-player, ignoring everyone who didn't play 70% of possible seasons, this is how i would go:

no equivalent / gretzky + mario

thornton + sakic / bossy + stastny + dionne + kurri + savard + hawerchuk + trottier

late and post-peak jagr / late and post-peak lafleur

iginla / messier

spezza / francis

datsyuk with pre-breakout years / young yzerman up to '88

hossa, savard, sundin / goulet, taylor, anderson

Joe Thornton was an incredibly productive player, just shy of generational and who is part of the 1% of 1% of all NHL players in history. There is no way there were 10 players at the level of or better than Joe Thornton in the 1980's!

 

[GlitchMarner]

Hawerchuk was a top ten scorer four times, just once more than Alfie. I think he's being overrated. He had those two big seasons and a couple of others where he managed to make the top ten in scoring (seventh and ninth) but otherwise fell consistently into that 11th to 20th range despite being very healthy during his prime. Thornton's been a top five scorer five times. He's clearly superior as a scoring race challenger.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Interestingly, if you remove Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby and prime Jagr and compare PPG finishes among players that played at least 40 games in a season, Hawerchuk has a couple of elite finishes (2nd and 3rd) and then three at ninth and a few in the 11th to 20th range during his prime ('82-'94) and Alfredsson has a couple of elite finishes (2nd and 3rd), one more in the top ten (8th) and a few in the 11th to 20th range.

 

[Nick Hansen]

Joe Thornton was an incredibly productive player, just shy of generational and who is part of the 1% of 1% of all NHL players in history. There is no way there were 10 players at the level of or better than Joe Thornton in the 1980's!

Gretzky, Messier, Lemieux, Coffey, Bossy, Bourque, Trottier, Potvin, Yzerman, Roy

Thornton's a great player, though, and belongs on the top 100 list of the best players of all time IMO.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Interestingly, if you remove Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby and prime Jagr and compare PPG finishes among players that played at least 40 games in a season,

feels like comparing apples to diamonds, don’t you think?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Every method has flaws and that's a result of trying to measure shifting targets (careers) over rocky terrain (wildly variable offensive eras).

On all the charts you've started by leaving the field too open with low playing requirements. Which means that you've increased the possibly that a high scoring season or two could take over the whole sample or that too many players who aren't really part of the generation are included. I choose a scoring rank, say 40th in points and I will remove everybody below that level.



Joe Thornton was an incredibly productive player, just shy of generational and who is part of the 1% of 1% of all NHL players in history. There is no way there were 10 players at the level of or better than Joe Thornton in the 1980's!

hawerchuk and kurri, i’ll even add savard, i’ll give you. but they all still belong in a tier above alfredsson, and of mist of his competition.

the rest, i don’t see an argument for thornton being demonstratively higher than dionne, stastny, coffey, trottier, and bossy. can you make one?

re: generations, i don’t think it’s controversial to suggest that alfredsson/thornton are part of a weak scoring generation, and that federko/hawerchuk/stastny/etc are part of arguably the strongest high end scoring generation ever. so if we are limiting the field of comps to direct generational contemporaries, one guy is swimming in a much tougher stream than the other.

 

[tony d]

I thought Alfie should have got in the Hall last year so I figure he's a shoo in for this year. Best Senator based upon his time with the team and his overall career in general.

 

[Giotrapani91]

Does kronwall have a shot when he retires not first ballot obviously, but does he deserve to be in I mean he's prolly the best shutdown defensemen of his era.

 

[The Panther]

Does kronwall have a shot when he retires not first ballot obviously, but does he deserve to be in I mean he's prolly the best shutdown defensemen of his era.

Uh....

NO.

 

[Michael Farkas]

That's legit the worst question I have seen here in years...to the point that I clicked "Report"...

Kronwall wasn't good enough to even get free tickets to games after he retires...

 

[Nick Hansen]

When he had that big season in 08/09 with 51 pts, I was thinking about if he'd become a HHOFer down the line but as we all know that's not what happened. Too uneven between the seasons and I'm not sure he really ever handled the #1D role all that well. Was most suited as a #2.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, I don't think he was even a #1 d-man in the NHL...he struggled to lead a pairing...just not good enough, with all due respect to how good he actually was in his prime. This is a HOF thread...I'm not convinced he's even a ring of honor member for Detroit (other than him playing 1000 games for Detroit...a good chunk of which at this point are pretty mediocre, if not forgettable)...

 

[Giotrapani91]

Ok what about rafalski better shot than Kronwall or no.

 

[Giotrapani91]

Yeah, I don't think he was even a #1 d-man in the NHL...he struggled to lead a pairing...just not good enough, with all due respect to how good he actually was in his prime. This is a HOF thread...I'm not convinced he's even a ring of honor member for Detroit (other than him playing 1000 games for Detroit...a good chunk of which at this point are pretty mediocre, if not forgettable)...

He'll get his number retired or honoured it'll be one of those two,

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yes, but no chance. Re: Rafalski.

These are poor choices.

 

[Nick Hansen]

Ryan Suter is not going to be a Hall of Famer. Ponder that and come back...