Prospect Info: HFOil Top Prospects Rankings - #3

Who is the Oilers' #3 prospect?


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soothsayer

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
8,511
10,693
Skinner could be 3rd or 4th this year and then 20th next year. We've had such weird development with goalies over the years.

That's true, but I think where Skinner excels others have struggled: that is, in the mental game. Brossoit, for example, was always a great goalie, but he had a bad head. For goalies, having concentration issues is pretty much an NHL death sentence. Skinner is as good if not better than Brossoit was in the WHL, (although, comparing their stats doesn't bear that out), but Skinner doesn't seem to struggle with mental issues on the ice. He could end up being a really good goalie. He's got the signs.
 

joestevens29

Registered User
Apr 30, 2009
52,487
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That's true, but I think where Skinner excels others have struggled: that is, in the mental game. Brossoit, for example, was always a great goalie, but he had a bad head. For goalies, having concentration issues is pretty much an NHL death sentence. Skinner is as good if not better than Brossoit was in the WHL, (although, comparing their stats doesn't bear that out), but Skinner doesn't seem to struggle with mental issues on the ice. He could end up being a really good goalie. He's got the signs.
My big issue is how he mentally deals with going from Junior to pro. Not hard to mentally be sound when you have 3-4 years of Junior under your belt. The next step is where things get interesting.

Everyone now become guys that have hard accurate shots and the games become that much faster as well.
 

soothsayer

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
8,511
10,693
My big issue is how he mentally deals with going from Junior to pro. Not hard to mentally be sound when you have 3-4 years of Junior under your belt. The next step is where things get interesting.

Everyone now become guys that have hard accurate shots and the games become that much faster as well.

Yes, but reflex and positioning and movement are things goalies are expected to improve at the next level. (Who's to say how far. You can't project how much they'll improve with significant accuracy, and that's part of why drafting a goalie is always a big gamble.) Mental fragility, however, is probably the most difficult thing for an athlete to overcome, and being able to stay in the zone and avoid head problems is probably the most crucial part of a goalie's game. So guys who struggle with concentration at the junior level raise some pretty serious red flags about their NHL potential. It's not that they can't overcome that issue, but usually mental stability is part of a goalie's natural disposition, meaning that mental stability is extremely hard to hone for guys who already have head problems, let alone to do so to the level needed to play in the NHL. It's kind of like work ethic or grit: either you got it or you don't. Being mentally fragile can take even the most skilled goalies down to a plebian level. See poor Rinne these last playoffs.

Anyways, Skinner ultimately may not be able to deal with the release of NHL shots, or the speed of the passes, or the mental exhaustion of being on all the time in the 82-game grind. But at least he doesn't seem to have the critical mental issues that Brossoit had in junior, which have ultimately plagued him so far in his pro career.

(For examples of goalies who had good mental dispositions early that translated well into the NHL, see: John Gibson and Carey Price. I think Carter Hart will be on this list in a few years.)
 
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nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
29,257
16,432
Northern AB
For me it's:
Benson-Marody-McLeod-Bear in that order.

Like some have said... there's quite a drop off from Bouchard/Yamamoto and I'd agree but to me those two are A+ prospects. Both a notch above "A level".

I'm very high on Bouchard as everyone knows... best pick in this draft in my view. Yamamoto I still feel is somewhat underrated as well. I would say he compares very well to any forward taken in this recent draft and I expect him to be a solid top line forward once he gets more NHL experience.

Now it's a step down from those two to Benson but I think injuries have derailed him (which is why he's not viewed as highly by most) but his upside is still strong if he can stay healthy. I view him as a solid top 6 player once he gets some more pro experience under his belt.

Marody I see as underrated as well. I don't think he's way below Benson... just a small notch and I could see Marody being the most surprising prospect for the Oilers this season because he's fairly unheralded and I think his upside is top 6 as well.. just with a slightly lower chance of getting there than Benson (who I think has a very high chance of getting there IF he stays healthy).

McLeod is another notch lower... but still has top 9 upside in my view.

Bear certainly has top 4 upside and even if bottom pairing PP-specialist is what he ends up as... that's a solid asset as well.


Skinner is a wild card for me... looks good so far but as many have noted... so hard to tell with goalies as they can go from boom to bust and back again with regularity.
 

joestevens29

Registered User
Apr 30, 2009
52,487
15,057
For the lazy people. I do get a kick out of these and how passionate people get in their arguments of prospects, but man have things changed in a year. Still the top 5 are solid, but everything else is just all over the place now.

HFOil Top 20 Oilers Prospects 2017
1) Jesse Puljujärvi - RW - Bakersfield Condors - AHL - 100%
2) Kailer Yamamoto - RW - Spokane Chiefs - WHL - 57.67%
3) Caleb Jones - D - Portland Winterhawks - WHL - 52.25%
4) Ethan Bear - D - Seattle Thunderbirds - WHL - 60.22%
5) Tyler Benson - LW - Vancouver Giants - WHL - 61.36%
6) Laurent Brossoit - G - Edmonton Oilers - WHL - 55.56%
7) Ziyat Paigin - D - Ak Bars Kazan - KHL - 31.18%
8) Jujhar Khaira - C - Bakersfield Condors - AHL - 45.21%
9) Dylan Wells - G - Peterborough Petes - OHL - 55.56%
10) Joe Gambardella - C - UMass Riverhawks- NCAA - 15.52%
11) Nick Ellis - G - Bakersfield Condors - AHL - 25.58%
12) Ryan Mantha - D - Niagara Ice Dogs- OHL - 30.91%
13) Dmitri Samorukov - D - Guelph Storm - OHL - 33.96%
14) Ostap Safin - LW - HC Sparta Praha - CZE - 39.22%
15) Aapeli Rasanen - C - Sioux Musketeers - USHL - 39.22%
16) Kirill Maksimov - RW - Niagara IceDogs - OHL - 41.94%
17) Filip Berglund - D - Skelleftea AIK - SHL - 43.33%
18) Stuart Skinner - G - Lethbridge Hurricanes - WHL - 25.00%
19) Markus Niemelainen - D - Saginaw Spirit - OHL - 28.00%
20) John Marino - D - Harvard Crimson - NCAA - 30.61%
 

McMozesmadness

5-14-6-1
Feb 17, 2013
9,604
7,114
Edmonton, AB
Thoughts on his AHL struggles this year?

Was straight up awful to start the year. -14 in his first 14 games. Looked lost in his own zone. Was scared to attack offensively.

Started to find his game in December, looked excellent. Pushing the pace, defending well. Production was stagnant, but looked good to my eye.

Didn’t watch much between January and mid-March.

Watched quite a bit late in the year and again he looked really good. His combination of skating and puck skills look good. When he’s on his game he’s a one man breakout. Needs to continue working on his decision making and defensive zone coverage.
 

780il

edm
May 29, 2018
12,622
14,463
Edmonton AB
#4 will be interesting to say the least. Could honestly go either way between Mcleod, Maximov, Marody, Benson, Jones, and Skinner there. Just goes to show how much our prospect pool has improved.
 
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Bryanbryoil

Pray For Ukraine
Sep 13, 2004
85,950
34,069
#4 will be interesting to say the least. Could honestly go either way between Mcleod, Maximov, Marody, Benson, Jones, and Skinner there. Just goes to show how much our prospect pool has improved.

Don't forget about Safin either.
 

KarmaPolice

Snack enthusiast
Oct 5, 2007
19,051
10,338
In Limbo
Top 5 for me:
1. Bouchard
2. Yamamoto
3. Bear
4. McLeod
5a. Maksimov
5b. Benson

McLeod, Maksimov and Benson are all very close for me. Fairly high-end 'B level' prospects that have good potential if they can reach it. Safin and Marody also intrigue me, but I don't see them on the level of the first three I mentioned. Jones needs a big bounce-back year in the AHL both offensively and defensively, but he still has good potential as well. Goalies are such a wild card that I kinda feel they deserve their own ranking listing, and one that would probably change every month or two, so I'm personally not even going to try to rank Skinner and the other goalies. Just the nature of the position; goalies are voodoo, and I'm just not down with voodoo.
 
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joestevens29

Registered User
Apr 30, 2009
52,487
15,057
This is probably the most promising prospect list the team has had in a long time with the progression that a number of later round picks have made the past couple seasons.
Seem to hear that every year. Eventually it will be an accurate statement. Then again is it really that hard to be better than what we've had in the past?
 
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Bangers

Registered User
May 31, 2006
3,919
868
I'm a Jones fan. I think he will be a better player than Bear.

It is interesting how much one year can sway opinion.

As has been said on these boards ad nauseam, development is not linear. I'm not saying it will happen, but if Jones has a much better year than Bear, I won't be surprised.
 
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