(HFNHL) Columbus 2020-21 Preview

Ohio Jones

Game on...
Feb 28, 2002
8,257
201
Great White North
(Buckle up, folks - this is a long one. TLDR? Skip down to the lineup below.)

At the deadline in 2016-17, after several seasons of trying and failing to spend their way to the Cup finals, the Blue Jackets ran out of cash and had to begin the systematic dismantling of their veteran-heavy roster. Three seasons of continued sell-off followed, with the team bottoming out in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

But what goes down must come up. The tear-down helped turn our bottom-5 farm system into a top-5 factory turning out 2-3 NHL players each season. And as those young players start to assert themselves the team saw a window to accelerate the rebuild.

Entering 2020 FA free agency well below the league’s salary floor, we were able to make low-cost trade acquisitions of potential rebound candidates Jeff Skinner, Brett Connolly and Sergei Bobrovsky.

Free agency saw the further addition of Justin Faulk, Mike Green and Nick Bjugstad, which together with rookies Nick Suzuki and Kaapo Kakko and the long-awaited breakout of Zach Sanford should put the Jackets on track to at least improve on our 25th place finish in 2020.

The youth movement is expected to take a further step forward in 2021 with some useable HFNHL ratings for Dante Fabbro, Haydn Fleury and Morgan Geekie, and perhaps some of Morgan Frost, Kole Lind and Ty Smith.

This was all in the back of our mind when the Predators announced that they were entertaining offers for Victor Hedman. We normally not have considered such a move since we’re still a couple of seasons away from being “one player away”. But a blueliner of Hedman’s calibre becomes available so rarely we had to pursue it.

There’s every reason to believe Hedman will remain an elite defenseman for the duration of his remaining five-year NHL contract (below market value at less than $8m per year). That puts him squarely in the window of our young assets, a star at the height of his game who can to lead a young squad. It meant accelerating the timetable, but we felt we had the depth on the farm and enough drafting success to make up for the steep cost: two firsts, a second and young NHL pivot Sam Steel.

Our jump from below the salary floor to approaching the ceiling required some additional moves, shipping out Michael Raffl and the recently acquired contracts of Martin Jones and Brandon Montour, which brought back a few more futures along with former Blue Jacket Zach Bogosian on a one-year deal.

The end result? A team that’s still not quite ready for primetime, but which should at least have a shot at a wildcard spot in an Eastern Conference that is seeing a few more teams begin the rebuilding process. And by 2021-2 and beyond, we plan to be right in the mix in the East.

2020-21 Blue Jackets

Forward:

Skinner - Brassard - Beauvillier
Connolly - Tierney - Kempe
Sanford - Suzuki - Bjugstad
Khaira - Letestu - Kakko
(*Marleau, Frost, Geekie)


Marleau’s return is up in the air (frankly we expect him to retire, which will drop the average age substantially), making 32-year-old Derrick Brassard the greybeard of this group, while 19-year-old Kakko should earn some fourth-line minutes.

We’re still a year away from being able to ice average HFNHL lines, but they’ll score enough to keep us out of the cellar. Center depth is a concern following the trade of Steel (Bjugstad is better suited to the wing) (EDIT: Mark Letestu was added to help shore up the position), but it should improve next year if Frost and Geekie can earn HFNHL-worthy ratings.

DEFENCE:

Hedman - Bogosian
Kempny - Faulk
Toews - Stone
(Fabbro, Fleury)


Defence was the Jackets’ greatest weakness last year. Safe to say things have improved significantly with new additions Hedman, Bogosian and Faulk stepping into the top four. (34-year-old Green was also signed but promptly retired.) This buys youngsters Fabbro, Fleury and Smith time to establish themselves before next summer when Bogosian’s deal expires, and Stone is likely bought out.

The ratings still aren’t great, outside of course for the all-world Hedman, but they’re good enough for the blueline to be considered a strength of the team rather than a weakness.

GOAL:

Bobrovsky
Nilsson
(Stolarz)


What a difference a year makes, especially in these ratings packs. Bobrovsky’s struggles adapting to the Panthers dropped his save % from .925 in 2018-19 to .901 in 2019-20, which dropped his OV almost 10 points. Of course, that’s also why we were able to get him for pennies on the dollar. If he can get back even half way to his 2018-19 form, that should stand the Jackets in good stead for 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Bob and Nilsson will split time in Columbus’ net this year, and by the end of Bob’s three-year deal we’re hopeful Lukas Dostal will be earning quality NHL starts. Nilsson meanwhile has one year to show he can be a true starter for Ottawa before we have to decide on his contract.
 
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