Hossa
Registered User
Because others are doing it, why not. For the purpose of this update, will consider guys like Robert Thomas and Thomas Chabot, who have not sniffed the minors in a while, as graduated although they are only rookies in the HFNHL, while others who are still this year working their way towards being full-time NHLers are included for the time being.
1) Evan Bouchard
The top dog with Thomas graduated, although a few others are closing ground. Bouchard has had a good but not great season. The consensus in pre-season was he could play this year in Edmonton, and probably quarterback their powerplay, but a year in the AHL would be good for his development. While reviews in Bakersfield have been mixed, this was probably the right call.
2) Josh Norris
Some of this is positional, because the list is deeper on d-men than forwards, but Norris' first professional season has been an incredible success. Not only the best rookie in the AHL, but third in goals and seventh in overall points, all with a rotating cast of wingers and after a nine month injury layoff. It's always been a question not of whether Norris would play but in what role, and with this transition it appears that could indeed be in the top six.
3) Henri Jokiharju
On the fringes of graduation at this point, it feels like Jokiharju has been around for a while but he will play the rest of the year as a 20 year old. Won double gold last year at the WJC and the Worlds, was dealt for Alex Nylander and has been good but not great in Buffalo this season, despite a bloated blueline. Jokiharju's strength is intelligence and puck movement, and although questions linger about how dynamic he can be offensively, he should have a long career on a second pair.
4) Tristan Jarry
Just when I was ready to count him out, Jarry emerges from nowhere to make the All-Star Game, and if he can continue at this pace, contend for the Vezina. It's a remarkable turnaround that again shows how unpredictable goalie prospects are. At a minimum, it cements Jarry's status as a possible long-term starter, at least until the clock strikes midnight again.
5) Alex Formenton
Almost as impressive as Norris' season has been Formenton's, who is tied with him for third in the league in goals. Formenton's pure skill isn't quite as high-end as Norris' appears to be, but his goal scoring - and perhaps equally importantly, his physicality - have translated very nicely to the AHL game. It's still an open question of whether he can adapt to a complimentary role in a top six in the NHL, but he is going to play.
6) Adam Gaudette
It's a bit hard to figure out where (and if) to slot in Gaudette. On the one hand, he's taken the step forward that Terry (below) did not take this year. Gaudette's combination of energy and goal scoring instincts have earned him a third line spot in a crowded bottom six in Vancouver. His defensive game has improved considerable as well, to the point where he could maybe stay at centre long-term.
7) John Marino
Amazing season. Marino is playing more than twenty minutes a night in Pittsburgh, in all situations, and is not only on pace for about 40 points but is one of the highest in Goals Above Replacement among defencemen in the league. Jim Rutherford is a wizard. I always liked Marino's skating ability, and felt he was overshadowed in Harvard, but I didn't see this coming, certainly not right away.
8) Alexander Georgiev
I could see an argument to flip Jarry and Georgiev, because Georgiev has actually had several stretches of outstanding play in New York over the past two seasons, but he has yet to be able to sustain it and is in danger of getting squeezed out. Definitely a potential starter, and still only 23.
9) Troy Terry
The first player on the list to really disappoint this season, Terry came out of college with tons of hype only to flop in the NHL and then tear up the AHL. This year, he has been perhaps a bit unlucky in Anaheim but still not particularly good. There are flashes of high end skill and he should at least become a useful powerplay option, but there is more development required to get his strength, skating and confidence to the point where he plays inside rather than on the perimeter.
10) Conor Timmins
I want to have Timmins higher, because I like him a lot, and the fact he has played at such a high level after more than a year off due to concussions is one of the better stories around. He played his way onto Colorado out of camp and while he was ultimately sent down to get more ice time, there is little doubt he can play in the NHL soon, it's just a question of upside.
11) Phil Tomasino
The first non-professional on the list, Tomasino recently launched himself up to fourth in the OHL in points, aided by a snub from the WJC and then a trade to a contender in Oshawa. It's been a good season for Tomasino, who has plenty of offensive tools and has actually stuck at centre most of the season as well. Doubtful he is physically ready for the NHL next year but Nashville needs offence.
12) Sami Niku
Niku has nothing left to prove in the AHL and he knows it. The skill is there, and although circumstance - poorly timed injuries and waiver eligibility - has contributed to the delay, he also has not seized the opportunities he has had. Defensive play has been the issue mostly, because a bit like Evan Bouchard, while he is a good on-puck defender, he is passive and reactive away from the puck. The second half of this season is key.
13) Andrew Peeke
Yet another defenceman who is trying to stick in the NHL, Peeke - like Marino - has hit the ground running as a professional. He broke camp in Columbus but was squeezed out before playing, went to the AHL and was fantastic, showing more offence than expected, and then impressed in his recall before getting hurt. Peeke is most likely in Columbus to stay, and has the size, skating and intelligence to at least be a third pairing player for now.
14) Phillip Kurashev
Although Kurashev has not been quite as good as Norris or Formenton as rookie pros, he still has 16 points in 29 games following an outstanding showing at summer camp and in the pre-season. Kurashev has always had talent, but the results were inconsistent - he was outstanding last at the WJC, solid at the Worlds as a teenager, but only so-so in the Q. That he is off to a good start as a professional is a good sign.
15) Filip Hallander
It is really a shame Hallander missed the WJC due to injury, because it would have been nice to measure his skill level against his peers as a 19 year old. The results in Sweden have always been very good for his age, and he absolutely went off in the relegation round of the playoffs last year, but he also missed his draft-year U18s due to injury. That in itself is a concerning trend for a player who does a lot of his work around the net.
16) Jackson Lacombe
I actually had the benefit of watching Lacombe live in Minneapolis, and he just oozes upside. In one game, he seemed lost - like somebody's kid brother playing up a level, skilled but confused. In the other game, he had several very high-end offensive plays, albeit with a couple poor defensive plays. The upside is huge, the risk is huge, but to jump from Shattucks to college and play in a top four role is a good start.
17) Boris Katchouk
For every guy like Formenton who translates to the pros brilliantly, I seem to have two like Katchouk (Zach Senyshyn, hello) who don't. Last year her struggled, this year has been better - both in production and the reports - but earlier hopes that he could be a complimentary top six forward have certainly faded.
18) Reilly Walsh
A hard prospect to figure out. He has been very productive in college, including this year without the benefit of Adam Fox on the powerplay, and to the eye the skills are there as well, especially the hands and the shot. There are, however, some questions, including whether the skating is as good as the other offensive tools and whether Walsh can defend in the NHL. In other words, he's off-brand Adam Fox. Let's see.
19) Jordan Harris
I want to have Harris higher, because I really like his game. Fantastic skater and intelligent player who has really stepped up his offensive game this year and plays significant minutes at Northeastern. Was fine, albeit perhaps underutilized at the WJC. The only question I have is whether the offence really translates, but I think he plays.
20) Sammy Walker
Another player I want to have higher, Walker is similar to Harris only at forward. Fantastic skater who plays with tremendous energy and leads by example (as a sophomore no less). Last year he was dynamic offensively in a supporting role, but this year he has struggled at times to be the guy in Minnesota.
Honourable Mentions
- Lean Bergmann and Daniil Yurtaikin: Both played their way onto the Sharks (albeit, one of the weaker bottom sixes around), seemed overwhelmed and have had mixed reviews in the AHL. Three months ago they'd have been far higher, so I'm holding off until the season plays out.
- Zack MacEwen and Joel L'Esperance: Two big guys who have showed they can score in the AHL but have not stuck in the NHL yet. I'm more optimistic about MacEwen.
- Cole Guttman and Logan Hutsko: Both undersized and talented, Guttman and Hutsko have both had flashes this year as high-end college players, but Guttman remains inconsistent and Hutsko injury-prone.
- Lane Pederson: Tenth in the AHL in both goals and points as a 22-year old centre, but to the eye looks more like a grinding winger at the next level. I want to see him in the NHL before concluding what his upside is.
- Cole Hults: Again one of the most productive defencemen in college, and a solid defender as well, but average size and skating make it hard to project him as an NHLer without some pro experience.
- Tim Berni: The captain and defensive stalwart of the Swiss WJC team, he's the rare U20 to play a regular shift in the NLA. Great skater and smart defender, upside the question.
- Jake Walman and Joel Persson: Different players with very different trajectories, but I'll group them on the balance of probabilities and upside. Walman has resurrected his career and just made his NHL debut. Both could feature on a third pairing in a sheltered role someday soon.
1) Evan Bouchard
The top dog with Thomas graduated, although a few others are closing ground. Bouchard has had a good but not great season. The consensus in pre-season was he could play this year in Edmonton, and probably quarterback their powerplay, but a year in the AHL would be good for his development. While reviews in Bakersfield have been mixed, this was probably the right call.
2) Josh Norris
Some of this is positional, because the list is deeper on d-men than forwards, but Norris' first professional season has been an incredible success. Not only the best rookie in the AHL, but third in goals and seventh in overall points, all with a rotating cast of wingers and after a nine month injury layoff. It's always been a question not of whether Norris would play but in what role, and with this transition it appears that could indeed be in the top six.
3) Henri Jokiharju
On the fringes of graduation at this point, it feels like Jokiharju has been around for a while but he will play the rest of the year as a 20 year old. Won double gold last year at the WJC and the Worlds, was dealt for Alex Nylander and has been good but not great in Buffalo this season, despite a bloated blueline. Jokiharju's strength is intelligence and puck movement, and although questions linger about how dynamic he can be offensively, he should have a long career on a second pair.
4) Tristan Jarry
Just when I was ready to count him out, Jarry emerges from nowhere to make the All-Star Game, and if he can continue at this pace, contend for the Vezina. It's a remarkable turnaround that again shows how unpredictable goalie prospects are. At a minimum, it cements Jarry's status as a possible long-term starter, at least until the clock strikes midnight again.
5) Alex Formenton
Almost as impressive as Norris' season has been Formenton's, who is tied with him for third in the league in goals. Formenton's pure skill isn't quite as high-end as Norris' appears to be, but his goal scoring - and perhaps equally importantly, his physicality - have translated very nicely to the AHL game. It's still an open question of whether he can adapt to a complimentary role in a top six in the NHL, but he is going to play.
6) Adam Gaudette
It's a bit hard to figure out where (and if) to slot in Gaudette. On the one hand, he's taken the step forward that Terry (below) did not take this year. Gaudette's combination of energy and goal scoring instincts have earned him a third line spot in a crowded bottom six in Vancouver. His defensive game has improved considerable as well, to the point where he could maybe stay at centre long-term.
7) John Marino
Amazing season. Marino is playing more than twenty minutes a night in Pittsburgh, in all situations, and is not only on pace for about 40 points but is one of the highest in Goals Above Replacement among defencemen in the league. Jim Rutherford is a wizard. I always liked Marino's skating ability, and felt he was overshadowed in Harvard, but I didn't see this coming, certainly not right away.
8) Alexander Georgiev
I could see an argument to flip Jarry and Georgiev, because Georgiev has actually had several stretches of outstanding play in New York over the past two seasons, but he has yet to be able to sustain it and is in danger of getting squeezed out. Definitely a potential starter, and still only 23.
9) Troy Terry
The first player on the list to really disappoint this season, Terry came out of college with tons of hype only to flop in the NHL and then tear up the AHL. This year, he has been perhaps a bit unlucky in Anaheim but still not particularly good. There are flashes of high end skill and he should at least become a useful powerplay option, but there is more development required to get his strength, skating and confidence to the point where he plays inside rather than on the perimeter.
10) Conor Timmins
I want to have Timmins higher, because I like him a lot, and the fact he has played at such a high level after more than a year off due to concussions is one of the better stories around. He played his way onto Colorado out of camp and while he was ultimately sent down to get more ice time, there is little doubt he can play in the NHL soon, it's just a question of upside.
11) Phil Tomasino
The first non-professional on the list, Tomasino recently launched himself up to fourth in the OHL in points, aided by a snub from the WJC and then a trade to a contender in Oshawa. It's been a good season for Tomasino, who has plenty of offensive tools and has actually stuck at centre most of the season as well. Doubtful he is physically ready for the NHL next year but Nashville needs offence.
12) Sami Niku
Niku has nothing left to prove in the AHL and he knows it. The skill is there, and although circumstance - poorly timed injuries and waiver eligibility - has contributed to the delay, he also has not seized the opportunities he has had. Defensive play has been the issue mostly, because a bit like Evan Bouchard, while he is a good on-puck defender, he is passive and reactive away from the puck. The second half of this season is key.
13) Andrew Peeke
Yet another defenceman who is trying to stick in the NHL, Peeke - like Marino - has hit the ground running as a professional. He broke camp in Columbus but was squeezed out before playing, went to the AHL and was fantastic, showing more offence than expected, and then impressed in his recall before getting hurt. Peeke is most likely in Columbus to stay, and has the size, skating and intelligence to at least be a third pairing player for now.
14) Phillip Kurashev
Although Kurashev has not been quite as good as Norris or Formenton as rookie pros, he still has 16 points in 29 games following an outstanding showing at summer camp and in the pre-season. Kurashev has always had talent, but the results were inconsistent - he was outstanding last at the WJC, solid at the Worlds as a teenager, but only so-so in the Q. That he is off to a good start as a professional is a good sign.
15) Filip Hallander
It is really a shame Hallander missed the WJC due to injury, because it would have been nice to measure his skill level against his peers as a 19 year old. The results in Sweden have always been very good for his age, and he absolutely went off in the relegation round of the playoffs last year, but he also missed his draft-year U18s due to injury. That in itself is a concerning trend for a player who does a lot of his work around the net.
16) Jackson Lacombe
I actually had the benefit of watching Lacombe live in Minneapolis, and he just oozes upside. In one game, he seemed lost - like somebody's kid brother playing up a level, skilled but confused. In the other game, he had several very high-end offensive plays, albeit with a couple poor defensive plays. The upside is huge, the risk is huge, but to jump from Shattucks to college and play in a top four role is a good start.
17) Boris Katchouk
For every guy like Formenton who translates to the pros brilliantly, I seem to have two like Katchouk (Zach Senyshyn, hello) who don't. Last year her struggled, this year has been better - both in production and the reports - but earlier hopes that he could be a complimentary top six forward have certainly faded.
18) Reilly Walsh
A hard prospect to figure out. He has been very productive in college, including this year without the benefit of Adam Fox on the powerplay, and to the eye the skills are there as well, especially the hands and the shot. There are, however, some questions, including whether the skating is as good as the other offensive tools and whether Walsh can defend in the NHL. In other words, he's off-brand Adam Fox. Let's see.
19) Jordan Harris
I want to have Harris higher, because I really like his game. Fantastic skater and intelligent player who has really stepped up his offensive game this year and plays significant minutes at Northeastern. Was fine, albeit perhaps underutilized at the WJC. The only question I have is whether the offence really translates, but I think he plays.
20) Sammy Walker
Another player I want to have higher, Walker is similar to Harris only at forward. Fantastic skater who plays with tremendous energy and leads by example (as a sophomore no less). Last year he was dynamic offensively in a supporting role, but this year he has struggled at times to be the guy in Minnesota.
Honourable Mentions
- Lean Bergmann and Daniil Yurtaikin: Both played their way onto the Sharks (albeit, one of the weaker bottom sixes around), seemed overwhelmed and have had mixed reviews in the AHL. Three months ago they'd have been far higher, so I'm holding off until the season plays out.
- Zack MacEwen and Joel L'Esperance: Two big guys who have showed they can score in the AHL but have not stuck in the NHL yet. I'm more optimistic about MacEwen.
- Cole Guttman and Logan Hutsko: Both undersized and talented, Guttman and Hutsko have both had flashes this year as high-end college players, but Guttman remains inconsistent and Hutsko injury-prone.
- Lane Pederson: Tenth in the AHL in both goals and points as a 22-year old centre, but to the eye looks more like a grinding winger at the next level. I want to see him in the NHL before concluding what his upside is.
- Cole Hults: Again one of the most productive defencemen in college, and a solid defender as well, but average size and skating make it hard to project him as an NHLer without some pro experience.
- Tim Berni: The captain and defensive stalwart of the Swiss WJC team, he's the rare U20 to play a regular shift in the NLA. Great skater and smart defender, upside the question.
- Jake Walman and Joel Persson: Different players with very different trajectories, but I'll group them on the balance of probabilities and upside. Walman has resurrected his career and just made his NHL debut. Both could feature on a third pairing in a sheltered role someday soon.
