HFNHL Canucks 2021 Draft Review

Hossa

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Feb 27, 2002
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Got stuck on the tarmac for almost three hours last night, so this went a little long. Here we go.

First Round, 31st overall: Shai Buium, D, Sioux City (USHL)
NHL Draft: 2nd round, 36th overall to Detroit

Selecting Buium in the first was a gamble insofar as he wasn’t listed as a first rounder anywhere, other than maybe Central Scouting depending upon how you weight him being 20th. There were however several signals that his stock was on the rise heading into the draft, so as I I dug into him as a third round option, it slowly became clear he would (and should) probably be long gone by then. Still, using a first on him felt like a calculated risk, one somewhat redeemed by Detroit trading up to take him in the 30s as well.

As a player, Buium has a fascinating backstory as the son of Israeli immigrants who found hockey in San Diego, the middle child of three brothers who are all players. He also has an intriguing profile, with a big 6’3” frame and a bunch of offensive tools that only started to show themselves near the end of his USHL season. He is quite active in zone exits and entries, showing flashes of high skill in driving defenders wide with a powerful stride and in making small area plays with his hands. But he is also quite raw, prone to turnovers in those exits and in retrievals, to wandering in coverage defensively, and without a credible shot option off the point.

Buium is off to Denver, which has some track record of developing offensive blueliners (eg. Ian Mitchell, Will Butcher, Matt Carle), and after a down year has some good recruits and few graduations. As a raw player with a projectable frame and flashes of high skill, Buium is a pure upside pick in a draft without a ton of players in that mould, but also one who - like Jackson Lacombe, another Shattucks alumni and Canucks picks - will probably need three years in college.

Comparison: Alec Martinez



Third Round, 73rd overall: Dmitri Kostenko, D, Lada Togliatti (VHL)
NHL Draft: Third Round, 87th overall to Montreal

Whereas Buium was the pick all along and the only question was whether to trade down, Dmitri Kostenko was not the plan at 73. However, most of my targets were long gone and shortlist had been exhausted, so it was a scramble to find a credible pick in that range that I had done some due diligence on but had not prioritised for one reason or another. Kostenko fit the bill, a highly skilled right shot D who had a great season for a first year eligible in the VHL, but who like Buium is a fairly raw defender with great hands and offensive flair.

In some ways, Kostenko is further ahead that Buium. The VHL is a very good pro league, albeit somewhat uneven in quality, and Kostenko took a regular shift on a poor Lada Togliatti team with Fedor Svechkov, put up some points and closed the year playing on both special teams. His decision making is probably more advanced than Buium, as is his shot, and he grew an inch over the year as well, but the skating needs work. Kostenko actually moves well in small areas, off the blue line and stepping up in the neutral zone, but can be sluggish in a straight line and on retrievals.

His strong VHL season earned him a KHL contract with Spartak Moscow, where he will play next year, as well as probably at the World Juniors (especially as a rare right shot Russian). Montreal is also a fairly good landing spot with a strong track record of late drafting offensive-leaning defencemen, and success in bringing Alexander Romanov over as well.

Comparison: Rasmus Andersson



Third Round, 95th overall: Artur Akhtyamov, G, Ak Bars Kazan (VHL/KHL)
NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 106th overall to Toronto (in 2020)

Whereas Kostenko was not a target, Akhtyamov was, albeit more for the fourth than the third. Still, having dealt Carey Price and Alexander Georgiev already this summer, and with only Cole Brady and David Tendeck in the system, a goalie in the draft was almost a necessity, and Akhtyamov was as strong a prospect as any outside of Costa and Wallstedt. It came down to him or Merilainen and I went with the goalie with the stronger track record.

Drafted last year by Toronto in the early fourth, Akhtyamov had a fantastic season across three levels, playing mostly in the VHL where he put up a remarkable .927 save percentage. He was solid in three KHL games, and dominant in one WJC game and when back in the MHL. Selecting Russian goalies with a strong track record of success has paid off a fair bit lately - see: Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin - and like the latter, Akhtyamov is highly athletic but slightly undersized at only 6’1”.

Comparison: Igor Shesterkin, if I poke the right voodoo doll.


Fourth Round, 104th overall: Guillaume Richard, D, Tri-City (USHL)
NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 101st overall to Columbus

Whether or not to target Gullaume Richard was an existential dilemma in preparing my list for rounds four through seven. On the one hand, he is very much my type - mobile, intelligent, projectable, and off to college. On the other hand, I did not particularly like him at the U18s, where he was at best bland.

When going back to some of his USHL video, however, I felt he showed more flashes of the skill level that made him a highly touted prospect coming up in Quebec. He is not Thomas Chabot, as some thought a few years ago, but he moves well in all directions, transitions pucks quickly and can join the rush effectively.

Richard is off to Providence College next year, where he’ll face off against half of my prospect pool in Hockey East. Providence has developed well in recent years, including current Canuck Jake Walman, who had a similar profile coming into college. The question will be whether Richard can take those occasional flashes and be more dynamic more consistently, or if he blends into the background as a steady fringe prospect. Let’s see.

Comparison: John Marino


Fourth Round, 127th overall: Caedan Bankier, C, Kamloops (WHL)
NHL Draft: Third Round, 86th overall to Minnesota

One place I have not drafted out of much historically has been the WHL, but taking a late flier on Gage Goncalves last year, which is paying off so far, had me interested in targeting guys who have developed considerably since the WHL Bantam Draft. Enter: Caedan Bankier, who was 5’10”, 135 pounds when he was drafted, and is now up to 6’2” and starting to fill out.

Bankier started the year in a support role on a deep Kamloops squad, but slowly earned more playing time and was especially good once Logan Stankoven left for the WJC. He finished with 11 goals and 23 points in 22 games, and it is not unreasonable to wonder where his stock would have landed with a full season on his trajectory.

Bankier plays centre for now and might be able to stay there given his size and emerging strength, but the skating will need continued work, and Bankier is more of a finisher than a distributor. He does drive the centre lane well though, and can find open space in the slot to finish. He could top out as a good WHLer, but there's a non-zero chance he is this year’s Adam Beckman and explodes next year, and that is a bet worth taking.

Comparison: Nick Bonino


Fifth Round, 131st overall: Carter Mazur, LW, Tri-City (USHL)
NHL Draft: Third Round, 70th overall to Detroit

Like Buium, Mazur is a player that became a target from a fairly early stage in my video process. In Mazur’s case though, it was mostly because every time I watched Matthew Knies - as a possible option at 31 - I was also drawn to Mazur. Off to Denver to room Buium (seriously), Mazur was also selected by Detroit, and should be a good college player almost immediately.

Mazur was a highly skilled player coming up through the Little Caesars programme in Detroit, producing a lot of points and being selected third overall in the USHL draft. But he struggled as a rookie in Tri-Cities, underdeveloped physically and prone to drifting to the outside. This year he came back quicker, stronger, and much more confident playing in traffic, and the result was 20 goals and nearly a point per game season.

At his best, Mazur probably tops out as a third liner with good hands who can play in all situations, but lacks the skating or creativity to play up the line-up. The work ethic, grit and grind should help him play though if he continues to develop.

Comparison: Blake Comeau


Fifth Round, 151st overall: Albert Sjoberg, RW, Sodertalje (Allsvenskan)
NHL Draft: Seventh Round, 207th overall to Dallas

The only mid-round pick to slip in the NHL draft, Sjoberg was one of the few players on the Swedish U18 team that actually played well, in my view, even if an expected bump in the rankings did not materialise on draft day. Like many other draft eligible Swedes, the premature end to the junior season forced him up to the professional leagues - for Sjoberg, to the Allsvenskan - probably before he was ready. Whereas Sjoberg managed 10 goals in 18 J20 games, he only put up 2 in 21 Allsvenskan games, including playoffs.

At his core, Sjoberg is a skate and shoot option off the wing who plays with a fair bit of power and has a nose for the net. The skating is better in short bursts with the puck that in transition, but he does bring a fair bit of energy and physicality off the puck. The rest of his offensive game needs work but I think Dallas got very good value late.

Comparison: An off-brand Owen Tippett.


Fifth Round, 155th overall: Josh Lopina, C, UMass (NCAA)
NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 98th overall to Anaheim

Lopina was deep on my list last year, and after a remarkable freshman season in which he was the second line centre for the national champion UMass (and was a co-rookie of the year in Hockey East with Canucks prospect Nikita Nesterenko), was an easy player to target in the middle rounds. Like Mazur, Lopina came up through another famed programme in the midwest with the Chicago Mission, but was more of a support player before entering the USHL.

He was good in his two years with the Lincoln Stars, but never great, and lacks the kind of tools that scouts like to see pop. But at a certain point, tools become less about projection and more about actual skills and delivering results, and Lopina is already a very good centre in college, able to match-up physically against the best players and provide enough offence to play both special teams. The skating needs work, but it has already improved a lot and he should put in the time.

At the next level, Lopina probably starts on a lower line and works his way up, but he is an overachiever who could come out of college in a year or two almost NHL ready, and work his way up from there.

Comparison: Andrew Copp


Sixth Round, 191st overall: Carson Latimer, C, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL Draft: Fourth Round, 123rd to Ottawa

A similar profile to Bankier, and not only because they’re both from the same suburb of Vancouver, Latimer was a raw third round pick into the WHL who did not even make the team in his 16-year old season. Not surprisingly he started a bit slowly this year but grew in confidence and jumped up many lists late in the year.

Latimer is still a relatively underdeveloped 6’1” whose skating in his best attribute. The raw athleticism can pop, and Latimer can play aggressive and get in on forecheckers. He did put up 5 goals in 22 games, mostly finishing plays around the net off the rush, so the next question will be whether he can combine his skill and skating into being a more active carrier through the neutral zone and on entries.

I believe more in Bankier's offensive upside, but Latimer is perhaps the better athlete, and his skating alone could get him to the NHL.

Comparison: Eric Robinson


Seventh Round, 216th overall: Henry Nelson, D, Maple Grove (HS)
Undrafted

The only player on the list to go undrafted - although I seem to have one every year - Nelson was the captain and top defence man for a powerhouse Maple Grove high school team in Minnesota. Two of his teammates, Kyle Kukkonen and Cal Thomas, did get drafted but Nelson passed through. Nelson is off to Notre Dame and should be capable of playing a regular shift right away.

Nelson was good in a six game USHL cameo, showing some of the offence and mobility from high school, although he probably has limited long-term potential on the offensive side. The transition defensively from high school can be difficult, and Nelson will not be able to be quite so aggressive trying to intercept transitions before they start at the blueline, but Notre Dame is a good place to develop.

Comparison: Connor Mackey


Seventh Round, 223rd overall: Jacob Peterson, C/LW, Farjestad (SHL)
NHL Draft: Fifth Round, 132nd overall to Dallas (in 2017)

Finally selected in his third year on my list and four years after going in the NHL draft, Peterson already has an ELC with Dallas and has a chance to make the team next year. He recently turned 22 and put up 14 goals and 33 points in the SHL last year, his fourth consecutive year where he took a noticeable step forward in his development.

Peterson is a primarily offensive player, with a still relatively thin 6’1” frame, good skating and a nose for the net. He is more of a shooter but can play with pace and with good line mates, profiling more as a depth scorer who can slide into a middle six role, rather than a classic grinder given a still underdeveloped frame and raw off-puck play.

Comparison: Mattias Janmark




Overall

In the end, trading away my second was a good decision, especially after a deep playoff run. It feels unusual not to have an NHL first round pick in the group, but I am confident Buium has enough upside to potentially make an impact down the line. While I passed on some name guys who went higher, I did my due diligence on those guys and wasn't sold on the upside at the end of the day.

The rest of the draft is a mostly satisfying collection of players at various stages of development. Bankier and Latimer are bets on guys whose stocks may have continued to climb if the season ran longer. Lopina, Kostenko and Akhtyamov have already had success against higher level competition, and I was pleased to finally nab Peterson, given how close he is to the NHL.

I feel less comfortable with the two second day defenceman I drafted, Richard because I probably passed on players I liked more in favour of a potential value pick that did not pay off, and Nelson because I gambled that he would be one of the first high schoolers off the board, and was clearly wrong. I remain surprised he did not go, but he will stay on the radar at Notre Dame.

Not the best or most exciting draft, but perfectly fine in terms of value and upside given the picks I had.
 
Last edited:

Ohio Jones

Game on...
Feb 28, 2002
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I think Buium will do well for you, and I like that he landed in Detroit where he can be part of an exciting young core in the years ahead. But I especially like the gamble no guys who are late bloomers - Bankier in particular is someone to watch. The development curve for these guys is often better than for the guys who leak early.

Nice work, as usual, damn you.
 
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Hossa

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Feb 27, 2002
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I think Buium will do well for you, and I like that he landed in Detroit where he can be part of an exciting young core in the years ahead. But I especially like the gamble no guys who are late bloomers - Bankier in particular is someone to watch. The development curve for these guys is often better than for the guys who leak early.

Nice work, as usual, damn you.

It's interesting what you say about development curves, especially after listening to some defensive interviews from Trent Mann, Ottawa's Chief Amateur Scout, where he stressed that they have more info than the public. And they're right, it is extremely tough to find contextual information on who are the late bloomers unless they're at the top of the draft.

Last year I took two players late - Mason Lohrei and Gage Goncalves - who both fit the bill and ended up in the second round. On Lohrei in particular, while I was able to catch his growth spurt before drafting him, I wasn't aware until after that he only shifted to defence a couple years earlier. That of course is information that teams would have long before they share with the public, and it's important context when you're hunting for steals in the mid to late rounds.
 

MatthewFlames

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Jul 21, 2003
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On Lohrei in particular, while I was able to catch his growth spurt before drafting him, I wasn't aware until after that he only shifted to defence a couple years earlier. That of course is information that teams would have long before they share with the public, and it's important context when you're hunting for steals in the mid to late rounds.

These are often things I look for late as well - injured players, super young players, players buried on depth charts <-- but showed well as younger players. Players who've grown quickly, players who threaten to go to other sports (Anders Lee), position changes, and my favorite is sustained 2nd half/late season improvement, which sometimes hints at continued development. Hinds was on my list for that this year and its why Jarvis popped for me last year and Knies this year was on my list because of that.

We've talked offline about your picks, but its worth saying publicly how much I love the Bankier pick - he also fits the above model.
 

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