Hossa
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The 2016-17 season was a tough one for the HFNHL Canucks, making the playoffs again but losing in five games in the first round. And for that, the club was still only picking 23rd in the first round, albeit bolstered by a few second rounders. But as shown below, it was a turning point draft for a team with a closing window of opportunity going back to the mid-2000s drafts that produced Evgeni Malkin, Carey Price, David Krejci, Eric Staal and others.
1st Round, 23rd overall: Robert Thomas
Status: Top six centre
Robert Thomas was always the top target at this slot, with Filip Chytil as the back-up, which would have been fine. At the time, Thomas was a bet on skills and the London Knights programme, because on the surface his 16 goals and 66 points in 66 games was unremarkable in his draft year. But Thomas' playmaking ability stood out even in a limited role in London, and it was quickly apparent in his D+1 season that he was a top prospect. He was in the NHL at 19, and had some growing pains thereafter before breaking out with 77 points in 72 games this year. Now he's 22, centres the first line on a contending club, one of the best playmakers in the league, and even kills penalties. Could not have asked for more from a late first.
2nd Round, 37th overall: Josh Norris
Status: Top six centre
Josh Norris in his draft year was a confusing player to scout. The production was solid and he had impressive chemistry with Brady Tkachuk, but the tools did not pop, so the projection was that the upside may not be there. Then Norris went to the combine and blew people away with his athleticism. Personally, I saw a future NHLer player, and he flashed the hands and shot at times, but he was not a traditionally strong on-puck centre, so I was surprised he ended up going 19th in the NHL draft. Five years later, he has developed remarkably well, with a shot that certainly pops now. He's Ottawa's first line centre and should be for a long time.
2nd Round, 41st overall: Conor Timmins
Status: NHL Player
Conor Timmins was not really on the draft radar entering the year and as one of the oldest first-time eligibles, there were questions about his upside. Coupled with wonky skating, he flirted with the first round and ultimately went early on day two. I always saw a player with hockey sense and a track record of over-achieving, with impressive production to back it up, although the true upside was a bit of a question. Five years later, after missing a couple years with a concussion and this past year with an ACL, it is somewhat remarkable that he has made the NHL, but what the future holds remains uncertain.
2nd Round, 45th overall: Henri Jokiharjru
Status: Top Four Defenceman
I was a bit more excited about Henri Jokiharju than Timmins, but wagered he was more likely to be there four picks later, which turned out to be true. Jokiharju in some ways was similar to Timmins as well, with hockey sense that stood out but little physical development. He was in the NHL a year later, arguably too early in retrospect, although a trade from Chicago to Buffalo was probably for the best for his long-term success, even if he probably lacks the stand-out qualities to stick with Rasmus Dahlin long-term. Five years on, Jokiharju is a top four defenceman, although whether he can be one on a good team remains to be seen.
2nd Round, 54th overall: Alex Formenton
Status: Middle Six Winger
Alex Formenton was basically a double down on the Thomas profile, as an even more raw player from even deeper on the London Knights roster. Of course, then he skated his way into Guy Boucher's heart at camp next year and for a while it looked like Ottawa would rush him based upon having one elite NHL tool already. Fortunately, the club ended up being patient and allowed the skill and sense to develop, and five years later that's paying off. Formenton still is nowhere near the finisher one would like him to be given the chances he creates with his speed, but he's talented enough to skate in the middle six and terrorise on the penalty kill.
3rd Round, 86th overall: Reilly Walsh
Status: NHL Prospect/Cup of Coffee
After picking from some of the most established programmes in the hockey world, Reilly Walsh was a higher risk pick after spending most of his year at Proctor Academy, with 24 games down the stretch in the USHL. What was most surprising was that Walsh then went straight to Harvard and produced, at times patrolling the first powerplay with Adam Fox. The offence was and remains legit, the skating has improved, but the defence remains a work in progress. Five years on, Walsh made his NHL debut late last year and should get more games, but whether he can find a role as an offence-first third pairing guy remains to be seen.
4th Round, 116th overall: Jack Badini
Status: Bust
Jack Badini went into the draft with some late buzz after being passed over the past year, getting traded to the Chicago Steel and leading them to the Clark Cup championships, with 17 points in 14 playoff games. At the time he looked like a legit centre who could skate, score and win face-offs, and for a while at Harvard it looked like he had a chance to carry that role over to the pros. But he surprisingly turned pro after a disappointing junior year and has only two goals in parts of two seasons in the AHL. Five years on, it is extremely unlikely he gets any games in the NHL.
5th Round, 147th overall: Tobias Geisser
Status: NHL Prospect
At the time of the draft, Tobias Geisser was a 6'4" defenceman who had recently converted from forward, and had plenty of tools, especially very good skating. He played mostly in the second Swiss pro league, and then spent his D+1 year in the top league, after which the Capitals rushed him to the AHL. Geisser's development since has been uneven, but he did pull it together the last two years and has real NHL potential. Unfortunately, he seems to have signed back in Switzerland for next year, making a third return to North America feel unlikely. Five years on, he is probably good enough to play someday, but it is unclear if he will.
Conclusion
Given how hard it is to find top six centres, to walk out of the draft with two, from a late first and an early second, makes this draft a major win. Both Thomas and Norris already rate out extremely well next year, and there is every reason to expect both to remain fixtures in the HFNHL Canucks top six for the next decade.
The rest of the draft was mostly very good value as well. Timmins, Formenton and Walsh all remain in the system, with Formenton already contributing to the club and projecting as a real sim force given his ability to score goals, throw hits and kill penalties. Jokiharju was an expansion draft casualty, but a pretty great value pick in the mid-second.
The two later picks sting a tiny bit, as Badini was a waste of an early fourth. More painfully, one of the last unselected players on my list was Drake Batherson, who had popped in some video I had stumbled upon. The Senators then took him in the fourth round in the NHL, the Blues in the first in the HFNHL, and now he as well is a top six forward. A lessons about trusting your gut with those late picks.
1st Round, 23rd overall: Robert Thomas
Status: Top six centre
Robert Thomas was always the top target at this slot, with Filip Chytil as the back-up, which would have been fine. At the time, Thomas was a bet on skills and the London Knights programme, because on the surface his 16 goals and 66 points in 66 games was unremarkable in his draft year. But Thomas' playmaking ability stood out even in a limited role in London, and it was quickly apparent in his D+1 season that he was a top prospect. He was in the NHL at 19, and had some growing pains thereafter before breaking out with 77 points in 72 games this year. Now he's 22, centres the first line on a contending club, one of the best playmakers in the league, and even kills penalties. Could not have asked for more from a late first.
2nd Round, 37th overall: Josh Norris
Status: Top six centre
Josh Norris in his draft year was a confusing player to scout. The production was solid and he had impressive chemistry with Brady Tkachuk, but the tools did not pop, so the projection was that the upside may not be there. Then Norris went to the combine and blew people away with his athleticism. Personally, I saw a future NHLer player, and he flashed the hands and shot at times, but he was not a traditionally strong on-puck centre, so I was surprised he ended up going 19th in the NHL draft. Five years later, he has developed remarkably well, with a shot that certainly pops now. He's Ottawa's first line centre and should be for a long time.
2nd Round, 41st overall: Conor Timmins
Status: NHL Player
Conor Timmins was not really on the draft radar entering the year and as one of the oldest first-time eligibles, there were questions about his upside. Coupled with wonky skating, he flirted with the first round and ultimately went early on day two. I always saw a player with hockey sense and a track record of over-achieving, with impressive production to back it up, although the true upside was a bit of a question. Five years later, after missing a couple years with a concussion and this past year with an ACL, it is somewhat remarkable that he has made the NHL, but what the future holds remains uncertain.
2nd Round, 45th overall: Henri Jokiharjru
Status: Top Four Defenceman
I was a bit more excited about Henri Jokiharju than Timmins, but wagered he was more likely to be there four picks later, which turned out to be true. Jokiharju in some ways was similar to Timmins as well, with hockey sense that stood out but little physical development. He was in the NHL a year later, arguably too early in retrospect, although a trade from Chicago to Buffalo was probably for the best for his long-term success, even if he probably lacks the stand-out qualities to stick with Rasmus Dahlin long-term. Five years on, Jokiharju is a top four defenceman, although whether he can be one on a good team remains to be seen.
2nd Round, 54th overall: Alex Formenton
Status: Middle Six Winger
Alex Formenton was basically a double down on the Thomas profile, as an even more raw player from even deeper on the London Knights roster. Of course, then he skated his way into Guy Boucher's heart at camp next year and for a while it looked like Ottawa would rush him based upon having one elite NHL tool already. Fortunately, the club ended up being patient and allowed the skill and sense to develop, and five years later that's paying off. Formenton still is nowhere near the finisher one would like him to be given the chances he creates with his speed, but he's talented enough to skate in the middle six and terrorise on the penalty kill.
3rd Round, 86th overall: Reilly Walsh
Status: NHL Prospect/Cup of Coffee
After picking from some of the most established programmes in the hockey world, Reilly Walsh was a higher risk pick after spending most of his year at Proctor Academy, with 24 games down the stretch in the USHL. What was most surprising was that Walsh then went straight to Harvard and produced, at times patrolling the first powerplay with Adam Fox. The offence was and remains legit, the skating has improved, but the defence remains a work in progress. Five years on, Walsh made his NHL debut late last year and should get more games, but whether he can find a role as an offence-first third pairing guy remains to be seen.
4th Round, 116th overall: Jack Badini
Status: Bust
Jack Badini went into the draft with some late buzz after being passed over the past year, getting traded to the Chicago Steel and leading them to the Clark Cup championships, with 17 points in 14 playoff games. At the time he looked like a legit centre who could skate, score and win face-offs, and for a while at Harvard it looked like he had a chance to carry that role over to the pros. But he surprisingly turned pro after a disappointing junior year and has only two goals in parts of two seasons in the AHL. Five years on, it is extremely unlikely he gets any games in the NHL.
5th Round, 147th overall: Tobias Geisser
Status: NHL Prospect
At the time of the draft, Tobias Geisser was a 6'4" defenceman who had recently converted from forward, and had plenty of tools, especially very good skating. He played mostly in the second Swiss pro league, and then spent his D+1 year in the top league, after which the Capitals rushed him to the AHL. Geisser's development since has been uneven, but he did pull it together the last two years and has real NHL potential. Unfortunately, he seems to have signed back in Switzerland for next year, making a third return to North America feel unlikely. Five years on, he is probably good enough to play someday, but it is unclear if he will.
Conclusion
Given how hard it is to find top six centres, to walk out of the draft with two, from a late first and an early second, makes this draft a major win. Both Thomas and Norris already rate out extremely well next year, and there is every reason to expect both to remain fixtures in the HFNHL Canucks top six for the next decade.
The rest of the draft was mostly very good value as well. Timmins, Formenton and Walsh all remain in the system, with Formenton already contributing to the club and projecting as a real sim force given his ability to score goals, throw hits and kill penalties. Jokiharju was an expansion draft casualty, but a pretty great value pick in the mid-second.
The two later picks sting a tiny bit, as Badini was a waste of an early fourth. More painfully, one of the last unselected players on my list was Drake Batherson, who had popped in some video I had stumbled upon. The Senators then took him in the fourth round in the NHL, the Blues in the first in the HFNHL, and now he as well is a top six forward. A lessons about trusting your gut with those late picks.
