HFNHL Blue Jackets Mid-Season Prospect Rankings - Jan 2020

Ohio Jones

Game on...
Feb 28, 2002
8,257
201
Great White North
Here’s our mid-season update on the Jackets’ prospect pipeline. There will be big changes to the list this summer as a number of standouts graduate.

Quick note on ranking methodology – I rank based on a combination of potential, probability and proximity. Potential is weighted most, but the closer a prospect is to the NHL the more confident the projection. By the same token, a Russian prospect playing at home may appear lower due to the "KHL" effect.
(Rank Position Name Acquired) [previous ranking]
  1. LW Kaapo Kakko (1/2 2019) [1] – The big Finn is making the adjustment to playing hockey at the highest level as an 18-year-old, and while he has not dominated yet, he has not looked out of place on a Rangers club that is going through a rebuild. His two-way play is a work in progress and has a long way to go, but he’s got nothing but time. He will graduate from this list in our summer update, but for now is the top dog in this kennel.
  2. C/RW Nick Suzuki (1/13 2017) [2] – Suzuki carried over his strong play from the OHL playoffs and Memorial Cup into a starting job with the Montreal Canadians, and his skill and smarts have not looked out of place. The club itself has struggled in stretches, but Suzuki has been a steady producer even while moving between lines and from wing to center. Worth noting that he worked on his skating over the summer. Like Kakko, he will graduate off this list over the summer.
  3. RD Dante Fabbro (1/14 2016) [3] – Fabbro’s rookie season has been partly mired in the struggles of the team around him to produce. He is seen as a complementary 2/3 defender rather than a play driver, but he’s also a low-stress option on the blue line even as a rookie - just steady, dependable puck movement and positioning. Minutes were steadily going up before a recent injury, but his development curve is right on track. It’s his last appearance on this list as well.
  4. C Sam Steel (Trade) [4] – the grad parade continues. Steel is a bit off from the .5 points per game pace he set at the end of last year, but in his first full rookie season he’s not alone in struggling to produce in Anaheim. His long-term ceiling may be more as a #2 option at centre, but that suits us just fine.
  5. C Morgan Frost (2/52 2017) [5] – we thought last summer that Frost would be a season away from getting a taste of the NHL, but he’s already splitting time between Lehigh and Philly, and showing glimpses of being a core piece of the future Flyers lineup for years to come. Will graduate if he manages a few more games with the big club this season. (This list will look VERY different come July!)
  6. LD Ty Smith (1/10 2018) [6] - Smith had a shot to make the Devils after a strong showing in camp, but they felt another season of junior wouldn’t hurt. They’re probably right, and not just because New Jersey has been a tire fire this season (bring him up to be part of some success, not this mess!), but also because he’s benefitting from the time learning to focus more on the defensive side of the puck. He won gold with Canada at the Worlds, but played more of a support role to flashier defenders. Is the anchor of what looks to be a Memorial-Cup contender in Spokane. Should be a better-rounded, more mature blueliner who joins the Devils next season after getting a ton more experience under his belt. The Devils’ season will be over before the Chiefs’, so finish their playoffs.
  7. RW Kirill Marchenko (3/68 2018) [18]– Big, skilled winger is tied for the fastest riser on this list, jumping 11 spots - and might have climbed higher if not for a contract extension that will keep him in Russia through the 2021-22 season. Marchenko has produced well in both the VHL and KHL, and put up almost a point per game with the Russian U20 squad throughout the season (including 6 in 7 to earn a silver medal on Russia’s top line with Morozov and Podkolzin). With his size, speed and hands he looked really, REALLY good. Unfortunately, unless he jumps ship early, Columbus fans in both leagues will have to be patient.
  8. RD Jett Woo (1/29 2018) [8] – Woo was frustrated again with being overlooked by the Team Canada brain trust for the WJC, but he’s channeled that energy into strong play for the Hitmen, who should also have a decent playoff run in the Dub. A couple of years away from being a consideration for Vancouver, but we can be patient. Projects as a top-4 two-way presence and fan favourite.
  9. C Adam Beckman (3/75 2019) [20] – Okay, I knew I liked Beckman’s game, but I certainly didn’t see the kind of explosion in production we’ve witnessed this season (which I hope explains why I had him ranked as low as 20 last summer). Another big riser on this list, Beckman is currently leading the Dub in scoring, showcasing both fine playmaking and an ability to score a variety of ways. Alongside Smith, he’s headed for a deep playoff run with Spokane. As his body matures and starts to catch up with his vision and deadly hands, he could become a real force. Still a work in progress, but the development arc is enticing.
  10. W Robert Mastrosimone (Trade) [NR] - Scott Wheeler describes the Detroit prospect this way: “A closer examination of your average NHL roster normally reveals that teams don’t actually have three first-line players together on the same line, unless you’re the Boston Bruins. So there are first-line players all throughout the league who we don’t talk about in those terms. Mastrosimone is one of those players who I imagine as that other guy. He’s the kind of player who has talent and skill but probably won’t have enough to drive a top line. He’s the kind of player who works so darn hard and does so much else even when he’s not manufacturing offence that you could imagine him driving a fourth line or playing wingman with better players. He never gives up on a puck, he can score goals in tight (his shot is good without extending to long range levels of good), he can hang onto the puck, he can make plays on the power play, he can block shots on the penalty kill. Every team needs those players.”
  11. C Morgan Geekie (3/74 2017) [9] – Geekie continues to impress in the AHL - a source of consistency for a Charlotte squad that has had its ups and downs this season. He continues to display better-than-expected production while being a strong presence on the defensive side of the puck. Upside may be limited to third line duty in the NHL, but in a useful role as a 200-ft contributor.
  12. C/W Aleksi Heponiemi (Trade) [NR] - Wheeler describes Hepo’s AHL struggles this way: “Though I still think he has all of the tools needed to overcome (his ultra-small frame) and develop into a high-end playmaker at the NHL level - and that we haven’t seen his best, nor has he been used in a role that maximizes his best - it’s clear when he’s not playing high in the lineup with his team’s best players that his ability to create on his own is limited. Heponiemi excels with the puck on his stick like few other passers outside the NHL but he’s going to need a trigger man who he can play give and go with if he’s going to maximize his potential. He’ll also need to play in offensive situations, which makes him a bit of a boom or bust prospect who isn’t likely to find success in a depth role once (or if) he makes the leap. It doesn’t help that he has bounced between centre (his natural position) and wing all year, usually on the third and fourth lines.”
  13. G Lukas Dostal (3/71 2018) [12] – After a superb performance in the 2019 WJC, this year’s edition was a disappointment for the host Czechs, as Dostal looked vulnerable prior to getting knocked out of the tournament with injury in game 3. That said, Dostal has had a very strong season with Ilves in the Finnish Liiga to date, posting a sparkling 1.89 gaa and .923 save%. With less-than-ideal size Lukas relies on his agility, instincts and fast hands. It remains to be seen whether his style can play at the highest levels, but the Liiga experience is encouraging. Has lots of time to develop, as Anaheim has plenty of goalies behind entrenched starter John Gibson, including fellow HFNHL Jackets Anthony Stolarz and Kevin Boyle.
  14. C/RW Kole Lind (2/50 2017) [HM] - Lind’s season has been nothing short of a revelation for Utica - and for Columbus. After looking completely out of his depth in his rookie pro season, he’s made the necessary adjustments and is producing consistently at both ends of the ice now on a line with Justin Bailey. A playmaker who is willing to skate hard and get dirty, he’s shown some finish as well. Back in the long-term mix for Vancouver, and back in the top 15 on this list. Just goes to show how tough the jump in level can be at first.
  15. RD Mitch Reinke (FA 2018) [HM] - Reinke is looking like the best of my 7th D options, ahead of Bryson and Dineen. Smart, fluid, creative - but defensively a bit small and suspect, and will never be much of a hitter. If Pietrangelo signs elsewhere this summer as rumoured, Reinke may just get a shot to prove himself.
  16. C/W Nikolai Prokhorkin (4/94 2012) [11] – At 26 years old, Porky is long in the tooth for a prospect, but our patience finally paid off as he is now earning his keep in the NHL in a bottom-six role for the Kings. After having spent the last six seasons playing in Russia, he has finally returned to North America to try his luck, and he’s having decent production on a struggling team. He’s not likely to ever come close to the point-per-game production he displayed in the KHL last season, but he’s another worthwhile (and cost-effective!) graduate.
  17. L/RW Jonathan Dahlen (Trade) [7] – After a series of AHL struggles, Dahlen returned to Timra in the Allsvenskan and is dominating. His upside remains high, but he needs to show he can perform consistently against tougher opposition before he can reclaim a spot in our top 10. With his incredible 4-way mobility and soft hands, we’re not betting against him - and as Sam Jose enters rebuild mode there should be plenty of opportunity in the years to come.
  18. G Isaiah Saville (3/68 2019) [17] – Just skip up to Lukas Dostal at #12 – that’s basically the book on Saville: immensely talented and mobile, but a bit on the small side for a modern goalie. Saville has earned rookie and goalie honours in the NCAA at various points this season, backstopping a surprising young UNO squad with the confidence of a veteran (albeit with mixed results behind the as-noted young . Made the US WJC team, but didn’t see any game action behind wunderkind Spencer Knight (for all the good it did the Americans, who missed the podium). Saville has lots of time to bake in college as he’s only a freshman.
  19. LD Jacob Bryson (FA 2019) [13] – Bryson is another smaller, mobile defender in the system as the Blue Jackets invest in smarts and skill on the back end. The 22-year-old is proving to be a steady defender with Rochester - although he has yet to score his first goal. That’s the book on him: highly mobile, reliable defensively, but won’t bring you out of your seat on offence. Makes safe plays consistently and doesn’t overcommit. Buffalo’s deep blue line means there’s no hurry, but Bryson gives them an option as an injury call-up.
  20. C Cole Fonstad (3/91 2018) [19] – Fonstad is adapting to his new team following a trade from Prince Albert to Everett, and the move is paying immediate dividends as he has put away 48 points in 32 games. While primarily a creative playmaker, a game this past weekend versus the Smith/Beckman show in Spokane resulted in a 4-1 win for Everett, with Fonstad chipping in a pair of tallies. Fonstad is a future pro in the making - a player on the rise, which is the kind of mid-round get that Columbus - and NHL Montreal - really needs in the system.
  21. LW Jakub Lauko (2/40 2018) [10] – Lauko has had a snake-bitten season so far, picking up a concussion shortly before the World Juniors kicked off in his home country, but recovering enough to make the team - only to be taken out with a knee-on-knee hit in his first shift. Hoping the bad luck has run its course, but his development is effectively delayed a full season at this point. Still an intriguing playmaking prospect on the wing for a veteran Boston lineup that will be looking for injections of youth in the coming seasons.
  22. LW Joe Snively (FA 2019) [14] – A Hobey Baker nominee his past two seasons in college, the Yale grad signed with his hometown Capitals and currently leads the AHL in game winners from a rookie. Like Bryson, he makes up in mobility and creativity what he lacks in size. He should continue to play a scoring role for Hershey in his first full pro season.
HM (Alphabetical)
RD Seth Barton (6/164 2018)
LD Xavier Bernard (4/107 2018)
LD Samuel Bolduc (3/76 2019)
The “Killer Bs” provide the Jackets with size and depth on defence. Bernard and Bolduc were separately traded to the same team for a deep playoff push, so we should see a lot of what they can do, while righty Barton continues to develop in college.
RW Nikolai Chebykin (3/68 2015) - Following the Prokhorkin path to development, unfortunately. Makes him a low-return lottery ticket.
LD Cam Dineen (Trade) - Another smart, mobile D, but lack of size and only average offensive skills limit his upside with Arizona.
LW Eric Florchuk (4/119 2018) - A nice addition to the WHL Giants’ playoff push, his chances of a pro career will depend on his continuing to work hard every shift.
LW Ethan Keppen (3/87 2019) - Taking a step forward offensively, and playing in more situations for Flint.
LD Nikolai Knyzhov (FA 2019) [15] - Hard rock defenceman may never hit double digits in points in a pro season, but skates well and will help keep the puck out of your net – and opponents on their butts.
RD Nicolas Meloche (2/50 2015) [16] – We called his move to San Jose to get out from behind the Avs’ logjam of top young blueliners, but it may be too little, too late as his progression is looking to have plateaued.
RD Cole Moberg (4/99 2019) - Likely trade candidate at the WHL deadline should give him experience on a deeper team after having to carry the whole load for PG.
C Josh Nodler (7/192 2019) - He’ll take the full ride in college, and we’ll check in on him again in a few seasons.
G Keith Petruzzelli (2/50 2017) - Consistently inconsistent. Will keep him baking indefinitely as there are flashes of potential, but not a guy we’re counting on.
LW Henrik Rybinski (5/148 2019) - Offence has taken a step back from last year despite d opportunities in Seattle.
LW Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (FA 2019) - Throwback North-south power winger is showing development with the puck, but needs to show the same effort without it.
 
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