Timo Meier is the best 5-on-5 player left on the board.
Player
5-on-5 Points
5-on-5 Points/60
Most Common Center Linemate
% of time with center
RAPM Goal Impact
RAPM xGoal Impact
RAPM Corsi Impact
Jake Guentzel
57
2.67
Sidney Crosby
86%
5.45
4
30.2
Timo Meier
47
2.58
Logan Couture
73%
4.88
5.82
125.3
Jonathan Huberdeau
47
2.45
Aleksander Barkov
60%
3.08
2.58
82.4
Alex Debrincat
44
2.36
Dylan Strome
43%
4.12
-1.33
12.6
Phil Kessel
43
2.28
Evgeni Malkin
56%
0.67
-1.65
-135.2
Mikko Rantanen
42
2.17
Nathan MacKinnon
85%
3.95
-1.82
106.8
Jeff Skinner
42
2.08
Jack Eichel
70%
6.37
1.41
17.3
Matthew Tkachuk
41
2.27
Mikael Backlund
76%
-0.37
1.95
108.7
Blake Wheeler
40
1.99
Mark Scheifele
95%
-0.47
-1.83
-4.3
Alexander Radulov
39
2.13
Tyler Seguin
78%
7.24
2.94
12.8
Vladimir Tarasenko
37
2.05
Ryan O'Reilly
65%
0.95
2.39
20.7
Joe Pavelski
36
2.01
Logan Couture
36%
-1.53
4.36
41.3
Jamie Benn
36
1.95
Tyler Seguin
67%
4.97
2.43
-9.2
Jakub Voracek
36
1.94
Sean Couturier
54%
-2.71
-1.25
-43.7
Gabriel Landeskog
36
1.88
Nathan MacKinnon
82%
4.64
0.01
-7.6
Kyle Connor
35
1.8
Mark Scheifele
50%
-0.44
-1.78
-14.1
Viktor Arvidsson
34
2.52
Ryan Johansen
83%
1.64
0.35
21.6
Filip Forsberg
32
2.19
Ryan Johansen
84%
1.22
3.25
54.1
Brock Boeser
32
1.92
Elias Pettersson
63%
-0.18
-1.01
-16.9
Patrik Laine
24
1.35
Bryan Little
58%
-4.29
-6.17
-112.5
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Meier has the best impacts on shot attempts and expected goals out of anybody on this list, and he out-produced everybody besides Jake Guentzel. Guentzel was well ahead of him in points, but that was with far more minutes, and almost all of them coming with Crosby. Meier's primary point rate was actually higher than Guentzel's, and while I do place some value on secondary assists, it's worth looking back at 2016-2017 Conor Sheary and mentioning that Crosby can inflate a player's secondary assists. Meier was also tied for the league lead in 5-on-5 playoff points before his team was eliminated. Point is, if you want to win a game at 5-on-5, Timo Meier is the best player available, and he is better than some other players who were picked before him in this poll.
If you don't want to take him because of his low PP production, I can't argue too much with that, since he has added very little on the PP at this point in his career. But in that case, Huberdeau should still come well before Wheeler and should have come before Rantanen as well. Blake Wheeler and Mikko Rantanen both just don't positively impact the game enough at 5-on-5 to be going this high IMO.
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