GDT: HFBoards GDT | 3/29/19

[Bleedred]

So how many games do you feel constitutes a valid sample size?

He may be hot now, but he's still having a pretty poor season.

Are you familiar with the term market correction? The long and short of it is that Smith is probably not as bad as he was for the first 20-25 games (or whatever it was) and he's probably not as good as he's been the last 15 games.

And since Mike Smith has been a .922% goalie or better exactly one time in his career (7 years ago and he has a bunch of .916% seasons but never anything better than that, besides the .930% season in 11-12) I would say he's not all the sudden a .922% goalie at 37 years old.

Does this mean he can't continue the .920%+ goaltending for a little while longer? Absolutely not, but I think what you're seeing right now is a hot streak to balance his numbers out a bit. He wasn't the .88-whatever goalie (or whatever he was during the first 20 games he played) and he's not the .920-whatever goalie we're seeing right now either.

 

[Snakepit]

He may be hot now, but he's still having a pretty poor season.

Are you familiar with the term market correction? The long and short of it is that Smith is probably not as bad as he was for the first 20-25 games (or whatever it was) and he's probably not as good as he's been the last 15 games.

And since Mike Smith has been a .922% goalie or better exactly one time in his career (7 years ago and he has a bunch of .916% seasons but never anything better than that, besides the .930% season in 11-12) I would say he's not all the sudden a .922% goalie at 37 years old.

Does this mean he can't continue the .920%+ goaltending for a little while longer? Absolutely not, but I think what you're seeing right now is a hot streak to balance his numbers out a bit. He wasn't the .88-whatever goalie (or whatever he was during the first 20 games he played) and he's not the .920-whatever goalie we're seeing right now either.

Agreed. There was a post in some thread saying that since mid November he's posted a .912. All in all I think he finishes the year around a .906, and that jives with what you said about market correction. He's not as good as he's playing now, but he's not as bad he was in October.


That said playoffs are all about streaks. If he can continue this at least until Rittich is over whatever illness he's had the last bit I wouldn't worry about Calgary's goaltending.

 

[Bleedred]

Agreed. There was a post in some thread saying that since mid November he's posted a .912. All in all I think he finishes the year around a .906, and that jives with what you said about market correction. He's not as good as he's playing now, but he's not as bad he was in October.


That said playoffs are all about streaks. If he can continue this at least until Rittich is over whatever illness he's had the last bit I wouldn't worry about Calgary's goaltending.

I'm glad somebody gets it, but I do have to remember that around here people often times jock a player that's been hot recently and then make threads asking ''What's wrong with (such and such, usually an elite player/or goal scorer)'' when a player goes 10 or 12 games with 1 or 0 goals, like it's enough to consider the player to be in a decline.

As far as Smith finishing .906% for the year, I'm not sure he has enough regular season left to do that. The Flames have 4 games left and you'd have to figure that if he's now their ''Starter'' again, they're probably gonna play Rittich in one of the back to back games with San Jose/LA coming up, since they're no longer (likely) playing for position and have the division wrapped up.

So say Smith plays 3 more games, if he allows 3 more goals (1 goal per game) and faces 30 shots per game (more than the Flames average per game, if I'm not mistaken) that would bring him up to .905% for the season. It's possible, but he'd have to allow 1 or fewer goals in the remaining games.

 

[Snakepit]

I'm glad somebody gets it, but I do have to remember that around here people often times jock a player that's been hot recently and then make threads asking ''What's wrong with (such and such, usually an elite player/or goal scorer)'' when a player goes 10 or 12 games with 1 or 0 goals, like it's enough to consider the player to be in a decline.

As far as Smith finishing .906% for the year, I'm not sure he has enough regular season left to do that. The Flames have 4 games left and you'd have to figure that if he's now their ''Starter'' again, they're probably gonna play Rittich in one of the back to back games with San Jose/LA coming up, since they're no longer (likely) playing for position and have the division wrapped up.

So say Smith plays 3 more games, if he allows 3 more goals (1 goal per game) and faces 30 shots per game (more than the Flames average per game, if I'm not mistaken) that would bring him up to .905% for the season. It's possible, but he'd have to allow 1 or fewer goals in the remaining games.

Honestly I hadn't put that much thought into throwing out a .906, but they play the Sharks, Kings, Ducks and Oilers to wrap up the regular season so it is possible. Just depends how much more they rest Rittich for the playoffs but if he's not sick anymore they probably split the rest of the year

 

[Bleedred]

Honestly I hadn't put that much thought into throwing out a .906, but they play the Sharks, Kings, Ducks and Oilers to wrap up the regular season so it is possible. Just depends how much more they rest Rittich for the playoffs but if he's not sick anymore they probably split the rest of the year

Well, they'll probably light up the Sharks (not sure how many goals the Sharks will score though) because Martin Jones is really good, I mean for the other team he is, but the Ducks and Kings look like dead teams skating right now.

Was Rittich sick? I figured they went back to the Smith because Rittich lost the last game (only while allowing 2 goals) and hasn't played before that since March 19th, so I thought maybe Smith got back the job again. I actually didn't even know he was sick.

 

[Snakepit]

Well, they'll probably light up the Sharks (not sure how many goals the Sharks will score though) because Martin Jones is really good, I mean for the other team he is, but the Ducks and Kings look like dead teams skating right now.

Was Rittich sick? I figured they went back to the Smith because Rittich lost the last game (only while allowing 2 goals) and hasn't played before that since March 19th, so I thought maybe Smith got back the job again. I actually didn't even know he was sick.

I don't remember exact dates but there was an illness that went around a few guys in the locker room. Smith got it first then Rittich after.

 

[Rubi]

He may be hot now, but he's still having a pretty poor season.

Are you familiar with the term market correction? The long and short of it is that Smith is probably not as bad as he was for the first 20-25 games (or whatever it was) and he's probably not as good as he's been the last 15 games.

And since Mike Smith has been a .922% goalie or better exactly one time in his career (7 years ago and he has a bunch of .916% seasons but never anything better than that, besides the .930% season in 11-12) I would say he's not all the sudden a .922% goalie at 37 years old.

Does this mean he can't continue the .920%+ goaltending for a little while longer? Absolutely not, but I think what you're seeing right now is a hot streak to balance his numbers out a bit. He wasn't the .88-whatever goalie (or whatever he was during the first 20 games he played) and he's not the .920-whatever goalie we're seeing right now either.

I agree with everything you said. I don't expect Smith to continue at the pace he's at now .... But it sure is nice having a hot goalie in the stable rather than one who would shit the bed on a regular basis. Smith it appears, had a real difficult time adjusting to the equipment size changes thus his terrible showings in his first 20 or so games... A lot of goalies had problems... Some adjusted quicker than others.. some still haven't adjusted.
Smith's career average is .916. I expect him to play, for Calgary, at an average slightly above that. The reason being is that Smith played his whole career for mostly terrible teams with terrible defense in front of him and if there is one position on a team that's affected by team play it's goaltending.