Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #4

[Spirits]

Duncan Siemens was once an 11th overall pick. Just because you're a 1st round selection doesn't always mean you have lots of talent.


Strictly on talent, Kaut would be well down my list(He's not #3 anyway for me). But the trick in these lists is balancing talent and pure upside versus NHL readiness and the likelihood of being an NHLer.


A guy like Weiss has lots of skill, Alex Beaucage has lots of skill and booming shot... But are the weaknesses in their games going to prevent them from making it to the NHL? In both cases the very likely result is thag yes it will.


On then flip side a guy like Kaut isn't as skilled, but does a lot of the little things right that should allow him ton be a solid NHLer at least.

Nothing like contradicting yourself. You went from talking about talent to discussing skill and then you made the jump to a guy that has played in the NHL being less skilled than people that can’t make the jump.

 

[henchman21]

I think people are overselling the safety of Kaut sticking in the NHL. He's got the talent to be a bottom 6 guy at least (I don't really see legit 2nd line talent) and says all the right things... but he's very up and down emotionally, he has a floating/perimeter aspect to his game, he doesn't play at a real high pace, he's slow with his reads and play with the puck... these are things that can cause issues for a player in the NHL. He has certainly shown some improvement in those areas, and he talks a real good game... I want to see it when the adrenaline of the NHL call up wears off.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nothing like contradicting yourself. You went from talking about talent to discussing skill and then you made the jump to a guy that has played in the NHL being less skilled than people that can’t make the jump.

You know what, I dont even need to explain myself here.

 

[Spirits]

You know what, I dont even need to explain myself here.

I guess that is a view.

 

[Spirits]

I think people are overselling the safety of Kaut sticking in the NHL. He's got the talent to be a bottom 6 guy at least (I don't really see legit 2nd line talent) and says all the right things... but he's very up and down emotionally, he has a floating/perimeter aspect to his game, he doesn't play at a real high pace, he's slow with his reads and play with the puck... these are things that can cause issues for a player in the NHL. He has certainly shown some improvement in those areas, and he talks a real good game... I want to see it when the adrenaline of the NHL call up wears off.

I tend to agree here with Kaut’s potential. I see him as a very good 3rd liner. He displayed a good sense for scoring during his call up though. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again that he is a 30-35 point 3rd liner. Would be thrilled if that is what he ends up being.

3 points in 9 games in the NHL but if memory serves he could have had more points with the scoring chances he generated that weren’t buried.

 

[tigervixxxen]

If they can’t get Kaut to stick then everyone on this list’s chances are even less so. And no I don’t take it as a guarantee either.

 

[S E P H]

This isn't a knock on Kaut due to my post from yesterday, I absolutely understand what @henchman24 is saying that there's value in good 3rd liners who's safe for the NHL. I especially agree to that in today's modern NHL which values ELCs much more than in previous decades. Nonetheless, I can't debate that even though he's more riskier in terms of his future playing in the NHL, Foudy is definitely more talented. I think it's just human nature to put 1st rounders above everyone else, which happens to me too. As @Pierce Hawthorne though mentions, just because a player is a 1st rounder doesn't mean he's better than player "Y" from the 4th round.

I do admit that this list is going to be a bit weird this year - of course for 2020 - because as I said for Timmins he's up there with Newhook as our second best prospect. However, and not to sound like a broken record player, but he shouldn't be going in the top 5 at all.

 

[henchman21]

3 points in 9 games in the NHL but if memory serves he could have had more points with the scoring chances he generated that weren’t buried.

Small sample size and he was obviously going all out the whole time (and becoming winded doing it). That is what I mean about seeing who he is when the adrenaline from the call up wears off. It is one thing to have a great first set of games, it is a completely different thing to establish themselves. Marko Dano is a prime example of one of those cases. He was phenomenal in his first stint with Columbus. He looked like he had the makings of a legit top 6 player for 30+ games. Then he never really found that magic again. There have been many times over the years where rookies start great and fade. I have no doubt that Kaut will get his chance. I think he can look really good for 20-30+ games. I want to see him have that same energy and impact when he has been in the league for 60 games and the NHL is his norm. If he can keep it up, I think he can establish himself as a good 3rd liner. If he goes back to his up and down energy and perimeter play, he's going to fall out of favor and be down the lineup quickly.

If they can’t get Kaut to stick then everyone on this list’s chances are even less so. And no I don’t take it as a guarantee either.

What makes Kaut safer than the others?

 

[Spirits]

Small sample size and he was obviously going all out the whole time (and becoming winded doing it). That is what I mean about seeing who he is when the adrenaline from the call up wears off. It is one thing to have a great first set of games, it is a completely different thing to establish themselves. Marko Dano is a prime example of one of those cases. He was phenomenal in his first stint with Columbus. He looked like he had the makings of a legit top 6 player for 30+ games. Then he never really found that magic again. There have been many times over the years where rookies start great and fade. I have no doubt that Kaut will get his chance. I think he can look really good for 20-30+ games. I want to see him have that same energy and impact when he has been in the league for 60 games and the NHL is his norm. If he can keep it up, I think he can establish himself as a good 3rd liner. If he goes back to his up and down energy and perimeter play, he's going to fall out of favor and be down the lineup quickly.



What makes Kaut safer than the others?

I don’t think you are wrong but iirc he was in great positioning the entire time he was up. I don’t think that was luck, he just seemed to know how to get himself into good places frequently.
It isn’t so much about his points but his generation of scoring chances, like that pass he intercepted. He just seemed to fit, I think he needs to look like he doesn’t belong before I fully subscribe to your beliefs here.

Sometimes we look for problems more than we have to on this forum. Maybe that is a result of the Avalanche lack of success in the last 10 years.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don’t call it safety, more that they are willing to play Kaut. His underlying metrics were good too, his shot rate was near MacKinnin’s level (obv sample size but shows willingness to shoot). He was a positive CF and other metrics player. His points were all important in one goal games. The ES primary for his assist was him reading the play and created a turnover which won 1-0, his PP goal in which he started the play retrieving his own dump in and then the ES rush goal as a trailer. All three were indicative of the type of offense he generates and how he tends to get primary and ES points. Those are the hallmarks of his game that he was able to do in his 9 games. He was defensively responsible and saved Makar’s bacon at least once too.

If we are talking about someone who would get voted in just because they’ll see some NHL minutes that would be LOC. I know he’s aged out but that’s the kind of guy that gets that bump. That’s also a guy living and dying on energy.