Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll 2021 #1

[TruePowerSlave]

The top 4 are set

#5 is where this really starts

 

[henchman21]

Thanks for your response and update on Weiss, much appreciated. I was just looking at our prospects in the 12-25 range and he jumps out at me a bit (along with Buyalski and Ambrosio) as players who could carve out a role. Would be a really nice boost if he could make the NHL roster and take a playmaking spot in the middle 6.

I think the Avs are rather thin in the prospect area, I think all 3 should be in before 12 (maybe 14 at the latest).

 

[Richard88]

I think the Avs are rather thin in the prospect area, I think all 3 should be in before 12 (maybe 14 at the latest).

Yeah I didn't mean to imply by the "12-25 range" comment that they would be anywhere close to 25. For me they're in that 11-14 range as you said.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah I didn't mean to imply by the "12-25 range" comment that they would be anywhere close to 25. For me they're in that 11-14 range as you said.

I'd say Ambrosio is closer to top 5... say in the 7-8 range, but I'm likely the outlier.

 

[Perratrooper]

I'd say Ambrosio is closer to top 5... say in the 7-8 range, but I'm likely the outlier.

You must value him pretty high to have him in that range. I can understand having him over Bowers, but the top 5 are likely Byram, Newhook, Barron, Olausson and Kaut, followed by Helleson, Foudy, Ranta, Behrens. Do you think he jumps any of the listed players?

 

[Richard88]

I'd say Ambrosio is closer to top 5... say in the 7-8 range, but I'm likely the outlier.

It's quite promising to see that Ambrosio was in the top 10 in scoring (9th in PPG) among all U19 players in the NCAA.

All the guys ahead of and around him are pretty high draft picks as well, with draft positions: 38, 5, 2, 79, 74, 100, 1, Ambrosio at 118, 5, 116, 45, 47...).

He's still only 18 years old (turns 19 in 4 days) so hopefully he can take another step this season. A feisty winger who can shoot like he does would be a nice addition for the Avs down the line.

 

[MaKarter]

You must value him pretty high to have him in that range. I can understand having him over Bowers, but the top 5 are likely Byram, Newhook, Barron, Olausson and Kaut, followed by Helleson, Foudy, Ranta, Behrens. Do you think he jumps any of the listed players?

I like Helleson more than Kaut and about the same as Olausson.

 

[McMetal]

Does Maltsev qualify for the list? Otherwise, Ranta

Maltsev does qualify, he's 23 with less than 65 games.

 

[Richard88]

Maltsev does qualify, he's 23 with less than 65 games.

That's interesting. Should be in the top 10 then seeing as he's already pretty much in the NHL

 

[McMetal]

That's interesting. Should be in the top 10 then seeing as he's already pretty much in the NHL

Yeah, I tend to weight NHL readiness pretty highly on these polls, but I have a feeling he's going to slip. We have a lot of guys who have been in the system longer, and who might have higher ceilings, so I can see him dropping outside the top 10 when the voting is said and done.

 

[pockets]

Add Helleson

 

[henchman21]

You must value him pretty high to have him in that range. I can understand having him over Bowers, but the top 5 are likely Byram, Newhook, Barron, Olausson and Kaut, followed by Helleson, Foudy, Ranta, Behrens. Do you think he jumps any of the listed players?

Kaut, Helleson, and Ranta. Of that group, only Ranta has impact upside. If things go well for Kaut from here, he's a 3rd liner at max who doesn't play with pace. Helleson's ceiling is a shutdown middle pairing guy who can move the puck... Tanev 2.0, but significant risk there. Foudy and Ambrosio are a toss up to me... Foudy has elite skating and better size. Ambrosio is more skilled and better in tight spaces. Behrens is right with Olausson and Barron... toss up for me on which is 3 and which is 5. Comes down to preferences and projections.

 

[Richard88]

Kaut, Helleson, and Ranta. Of that group, only Ranta has impact upside. If things go well for Kaut from here, he's a 3rd liner at max who doesn't play with pace. Helleson's ceiling is a shutdown middle pairing guy who can move the puck... Tanev 2.0, but significant risk there. Foudy and Ambrosio are a toss up to me... Foudy has elite skating and better size. Ambrosio is more skilled and better in tight spaces. Behrens is right with Olausson and Barron... toss up for me on which is 3 and which is 5. Comes down to preferences and projections.

I just went and watched some more tape of Ambrosio and I like what I see. He pushes play, always tries to find a lane to cut to the net and shoot, has a good deal of tenacity, and also has nifty hands and a quick shot. If he can become a bit stronger there's an NHL level toolbox there.

 

[henchman21]

I just went and watched some more tape of Ambrosio and I like what I see. He pushes play, always tries to find a lane to cut to the net and shoot, has a good deal of tenacity, and also has nifty hands and a quick shot. If he can become a bit stronger there's an NHL level toolbox there.

He's got a ways to go getting stronger and quicker on his skates... and dealing with physicality. But he has pieces that can develop. I'm not sure he's going to work on the wing just with his style of play and limitations, which causes risk and upside questions (big reason why I'd like put Foudy slightly ahead as I think his game is more adaptable).

Where I'm getting at the Avs group being thin is the group is really 2 A prospects, 3 B+/B prospects, 4-6 B- prospects, then a group of long shots. In a very good turn out, the Avs produce 6 legit NHLers out of the pool. Realistically... 4 is what should really be expected.

 

[McMetal]

He's got a ways to go getting stronger and quicker on his skates... and dealing with physicality. But he has pieces that can develop. I'm not sure he's going to work on the wing just with his style of play and limitations, which causes risk and upside questions (big reason why I'd like put Foudy slightly ahead as I think his game is more adaptable).

Where I'm getting at the Avs group being thin is the group is really 2 A prospects, 3 B+/B prospects, 4-6 B- prospects, then a group of long shots. In a very good turn out, the Avs produce 6 legit NHLers out of the pool. Realistically... 4 is what should really be expected.

I see the prospect pool as wide, but shallow. Once you get down from the top 3 or so, there's a whole bunch of guys who may or may not make it to the NHL, and so I expect that the polls will be really interesting and competitive in the 4-12 range, as everybody is going to have their favorites out of that group. Somebody is going to fall out of the top 10 that is going to have some really fierce backers who have them much higher on their list. I'm curious to see who ends up where, I expect the voting to get real close very soon.

 

[henchman21]

I see the prospect pool as wide, but shallow. Once you get down from the top 3 or so, there's a whole bunch of guys who may or may not make it to the NHL, and so I expect that the polls will be really interesting and competitive in the 4-12 range, as everybody is going to have their favorites out of that group. Somebody is going to fall out of the top 10 that is going to have some really fierce backers who have them much higher on their list. I'm curious to see who ends up where, I expect the voting to get real close very soon.

I see narrow and shallow... I don't see more than 10 guys with a real shot 150+ game NHL future. When you discount those types normal progression rates into the NHL league wide (which I'll argue Avs are below average). You'd guess there would be 4-5 full time, 150+ game NHLers in the pool right now. To me, I think that is really narrow. Avs pool is significantly boosted by there being 2 A level prospects.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I liked Ambrosio’s season and he’ll be a lot higher for me this year but seeing guys who had AHL impact such as Foudy, Barron and Ranta will elevate them a bunch in my book. It’s not just the proximity to NHL, though signing a contract and even being a pro is a plus, but showing ability at that level is not easy. I thought Ranta would be considered a lot higher, he’s in conversation for me with Barron and Olausson. Foudy is above Helleson too. Helleson had a nice season but what all those guys did in pro moves them ahead of him for me and it’s not like he has a crazy high ceiling to compensate. Olausson is clearly the ceiling/runway outlier in the group.

I also agree with the pool is not as large as people think. In my own prospect rank taking out guys like Maltsev there are only 25 players and that includes Shmakov. The reserve list is super thin too, the draft only added 4 players for a grand total of 15 players and that includes Kamenev and Boikov. They might only have a one or two signings next summer. Once Byram and Newhook graduate this is going to be a real thin group and no draft next year to add to it.

 

[McJedi]

Let's get it kicked off! Who is the Avs #1 Prospect?

In Order:
Byram
Newhook
Barron
Olausson
Kaut
Helleson
Ranta
Foudy
Annunen
Bowers
Behrens
Beaucage
Ambrosio

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Obviously Byram.
Add Behrens.

 

[Richard88]

In Order:
Byram
Newhook
Barron
Olausson
Kaut
Helleson
Ranta
Foudy
Annunen
Bowers
Behrens
Beaucage
Ambrosio

No love for Kovalenko? Honestly think he's more projectable into a (bottom 6) NHL role than Beaucage due to his awful skating.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Here is my top-16 list:
Byram
Newhook
Barron
Olausson
Behrens
Kaut
Helleson
Foudy
Ambrosio
Ranta
Kovalenko
Bowers
Weiss
Annunen
Beaucage
Zhu

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

You guys impress me. I can barely keep up with the current Avs squad and why Compher sucks this week, but you people are paying attention to kids playing in pee-wee leagues and projecting their future success. Where do you find the time to keep up with this stuff? Beyond Byram, and Newhook I'm pretty clueless.

 

[tigervixxxen]

No love for Kovalenko? Honestly think he's more projectable into a (bottom 6) NHL role than Beaucage due to his awful skating.

Probably the concern that he’s never going to sign. I love his game but can only go so high at this point. He’s also going to be in total make it or break it mode when/if he ever comes over. He’ll be 23 at least, he’s not going to the minors. That said I have him over Beaucage. My list is pretty similar except as I said I’m not putting Helleson over Ranta and Foudy.

 

[Richard88]

@McJedi, you really think Barron is our top prospect, ahead of Byram and Newhook?

 

[McJedi]

@McJedi, you really think Barron is our top prospect, ahead of Byram and Newhook?

Ummm. I just scrolled up and he was/is/remains number 3 on my list. Below Byram and Newhook.

so I don’t get the genesis of your question.