Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll 2020: Main Thread

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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It's time at last for the annual prospect rankings to begin! This year the format will be a little different so it will be easier on me. This thread will have the master list of what we've voted on so far, in the same format I've used in the past, but in one place rather than a new one for each thread. The actual voting will be done in separate threads, 1-25, and then the last nominees who didn't get voted into the top 25 will be the HMs, in no particular order. We'll start with five prospects per poll, then starting at 8, we'll add two per round until we reach 10 to reflect the diversity of opinions as we get out of the consensus top prospects. Vote with comments for who should be added next each round, simple majority wins, tiebreakers are mine because I'm the one doing all the work. ;) Polls last two days each, so we can get through them before the season starts and so everyone has a chance to give their input.

The rules for "Who is a prospect" will be any player who has played less than 65 NHL games and has not yet played the season of their 24th birthday. It's the same rules we have used in the past, going back to when HF used to cover prospects, so for consistency's sake we'll keep doing that so there's no arguments about "not a prospect anymore".

As far as the pool goes, the following players have been added since last year: Justin Barron, Jean-Luc Foudy, Colby Ambrosio, Ryder Rolston, Nils Aman.

The following players have been removed from the pool: Cale Makar (graduated), AJ Greer (trade), Nicolas Meloche (trade), Igor Shvyrev (released), Logan O'Connor (aged out), Vladislav Kamenev (aged out), Cam Morrison (released).

Let me know if I forgot anybody in the lists above.

PositionPlayerDraft2020 Rank2019 RankChange
LDBowen Byram2019 #41 (91.7%)2+1
CAlex Newhook2019 #162 (98.0%)3+1
RWMartin Kaut2018 #163 (45.8%)5+2
DConor Timmins2017 #324 (66.4%)40
DJustin Barron2020 #255 (62.5%)--
GJustus Annunen2018 #646 (59.7%)16+10
CShane Bowers2017 #28 (TR)7 (74.4%)6-1
CJean-Luc Foudy2020 #758 (56.9%)--
RWNikolai Kovalenko2018 #1719 (64.4%)10+1
DDrew Helleson2019 #4710 (50.7%)9-1
LWSampo Ranta2018 #7811 (42.6%)14+3
GAdam Werner2016 #13112 (50.0%)13+1
RWAlex Beaucage2019 #7813 (50.0%)19+6
CColby Ambrosio2020 #11814 (31.0%)--
DDaniil Zhuravlyov2018 #14615 (47.9%)HM+11
RWSasha Mutala2019 #14016 (58.5%)24+8
CMatthew Stienburg2019 #6317 (58.5%)23+6
RWRyder Rolston2020 #13918 (45.2%)--
RWNick Henry2017 #9419 (36.7%)17-2
DNick Leivermann2017 #18720 (47.2%)HM+7
LWTyler Weiss2018 #10921 (58.8%)210
DNathan Clurman2016 #16122 (40.6%)HM+8
CLuka Burzan2019 #17123 (48.6%)HM+5
CNils Åman2020 #16724 (51.9%)--
GShamil Shmakov2018 #20225 (57.5%)HM+4
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
For reference, here are the results from last year.

PositionPlayerDraft2019 Rank2018 RankChange
RDCale Makar2017 #41 (96.7%)10
LDBowen Byram2019 #42 (98.1%)--
CAlex Newhook2019 #163 (60.0%)--
RDConor Timmins2017 #324 (57.8%)3-1
RWMartin Kaut2018 #165 (92.6%)2-3
CShane Bowers2017 #28 (TR)6 (76.6%)4-2
CVladislav Kamenev2014 #42 (TR)7 (52.1%)6-1
RDNicolas Meloche2015 #408 (46.5%)5-3
RDDrew Helleson2019 #479 (58.1%)--
RWNikolai Kovalenko2018 #17110 (51.5%)13+3
LWAJ Greer2015 #3911 (69.3%)8-3
CIgor Shyvrev2017 #12512 (26.8%)7-5
GAdam Werner2016 #13113 (29.1%)25+12
LWSampo Ranta2018 #7814 (41.7%)11-3
CLogan O'ConnorUndrafted15 (32.8%)HM+15
GJustus Annunen2018 #6416 (30.3%)12-4
RWNick Henry2017 #9417 (34.3%)16-1
LWCam Morrison2016 #4018 (39.1%)14-4
RWAlex Beaucage2019 #7819 (42.6%)--
LWTy LewisUndrafted20 (35.7%)9-11
LWTyler Weiss2018 #10921 (46.7%)10-11
CBrandon Saigeon2018 #14022 (40.0%)220
CMatthew Stienburg2019 #6323 (31.4%)--
RWSasha Mutala2019 #14024 (37.5%)--
GTrent Miner2019 #20225 (43.9%)--
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
HONORABLE MENTIONS

PositionPlayerDraft2019 Rank2018 RankChange
LDDanila Zhuravlyov2018 #146HM17-9
LDNick Leivermann2017 #187HM18-9
CLuka Burzan2019 #171HM--
GShamil Shmakov2018 #202HMHM0
RDNathan Clurman2016 #161HMHM0
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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RockyMtnRedhawk

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Feb 25, 2014
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Is Kamenev out as well?

I'd say start with the top 5 from last year - Makar + Barron. When are we getting this thing started?
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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Is Kamenev out as well?

I'd say start with the top 5 from last year - Makar + Barron. When are we getting this thing started?
You are correct about Kamenev, he is 24, so he's out despite the fact that we still have his rights.

And the Byram... I mean #1 thread went up Monday. I didn't anticipate Monday being such a huge day after he Avs were so quiet, so it got buried I'm afraid.
 
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AvsInRhodey

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Oct 26, 2020
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Curious to hear opinions... if LOC and Gilbert were both eligible for this poll (which they would have been without this year's schedule oddity) where would you have ranked them?

Obviously, with these two guys in particular, the debate becomes what you value more; NHL readiness or long-term upside. Personally, I like LOC at #8 between Bowers and Foudy, and Gilbert would be my new #12 between Helleson and Ranta.
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
14,052
11,946
Curious to hear opinions... if LOC and Gilbert were both eligible for this poll (which they would have been without this year's schedule oddity) where would you have ranked them?

Obviously, with these two guys in particular, the debate becomes what you value more; NHL readiness or long-term upside. Personally, I like LOC at #8 between Bowers and Foudy, and Gilbert would be my new #12 between Helleson and Ranta.
I'd put LOC behind Foudy based on upside. I love LOC's game, and he's basically a plug and play 4th liner at this point, but Foudy has real serious upside as an impact player that LOC doesn't, despite the fact that I believe good 4th liners like LOC are crucial to depth on good teams. EDIT: If I'm going by my own list, I'd go Foudy-LOC-Bowers, mostly because I'm a pessimist about Bowers and LOC is already what we hope Bowers could become.

As for Gilbert, I would agree with him just behind Helleson. Again, based on the upside of Helleson. I like Gilbert and think he could be a good 6/7 type right away (which, again, is crucial to good depth), but I think that would be a good spot for him. And who knows, maybe we found another Graves who will fit with our system and become an NHL regular. Nothing wrong with having too many mobile NHL defensemen.
 
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tigervixxxen

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Probably after Werner who is at 11 for me. There is some value in NHL game probability but it’s also a factor of giving those guys the games and not for inherent talent reasons.
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
14,052
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Biggest risers in the polls from last year:

Daniil Zhuravlyov - HM1 to 16 - +11
Justus Annunen - 16 to 6 - +10
Sasha Mutala - 24 to 16 - +8
Nathan Clurman - HM5 to 22 - +8
Nick Leivermann - HM2 to 20 - +7

Lot of risers in the polls due to the large number of removals of perpetual favorites like Greer, Meloche, and Kamenev and only 5 new additions.
 

TruePowerSlave

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Jun 27, 2015
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Really solid looking pool considering that the Avs are one of the best teams in the league once again. Many GM's would start trading youth like there is no tomorrow once their team becomes competitive.

The team has the pieces to have one of the longest cup windows of the cap era. Things can go wrong obviously, but it has been extremely rare to see teams in such a great all-around situation.
 

Northern Avs Fan

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May 27, 2019
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Really solid looking pool considering that the Avs are one of the best teams in the league once again. Many GM's would start trading youth like there is no tomorrow once their team becomes competitive.

The team has the pieces to have one of the longest cup windows of the cap era. Things can go wrong obviously, but it has been extremely rare to see teams in such a great all-around situation.

Yep. It certainly could be a lot worse. The top-7 guys have a pretty good shot at making the league at some point. Beyond that you can sprinkle in a few players that have potential to maybe make it some day.

It’s not the best prospect pool in the league, but there’s a lot of talent here to support the core moving forward.

Pools like Ottawa, Detroit, LA, and NYR are better than Colorado’s, but the Avs would fall somewhere in that next group of teams for me.
 
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S E P H

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Biggest risers in the polls from last year:

Daniil Zhuravlyov - HM1 to 16 - +11
Justus Annunen - 16 to 6 - +10
Sasha Mutala - 24 to 16 - +8
Nathan Clurman - HM5 to 22 - +8
Nick Leivermann - HM2 to 20 - +7

Lot of risers in the polls due to the large number of removals of perpetual favorites like Greer, Meloche, and Kamenev and only 5 new additions.
IMHO, what I think will happen next year;

- Byram has a good chance of graduating
- Newhook becomes our top prospect
- Kaut has the biggest chance of graduating
- Foudy and Kovalenko move in the top five
- Ambrosio moves in top 7-ish as well
- Our goalers drop further down
- Our NCAA players all rise a bit
 
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McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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IMHO, what I think will happen next year;

- Byram has a good chance of graduating
- Newhook becomes our top prospect
- Kaut has the biggest chance of graduating
- Foudy and Kovalenko move in the top five
- Ambrosio moves in top 7-ish as well
- Our goalers drop further down
- Our NCAA players all rise a bit
We'll still likely have a first round pick, too. I don't see us adding anyone at the deadline who will cost us that, and Sakic is generally hesitant to move those. Recent firsts always tend to debut pretty high.
 

Northern Avs Fan

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May 27, 2019
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We'll still likely have a first round pick, too. I don't see us adding anyone at the deadline who will cost us that, and Sakic is generally hesitant to move those. Recent firsts always tend to debut pretty high.

The only way I see next years first round pick being traded is for a goalie at the deadline if the Avs netminding pair is struggling, or at the expansion draft to keep the roster intact.

Other than that, I think they’ll be adding a forward to the prospect pool with that pick.
 

S E P H

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We'll still likely have a first round pick, too. I don't see us adding anyone at the deadline who will cost us that, and Sakic is generally hesitant to move those. Recent firsts always tend to debut pretty high.
Remember that Goodrow and Coleman both cost 1st rounders, that might be Tampa going crazy and Sakic doesn't need to do that but just stating it is a possibility to potentially overpay.
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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11,946
The only way I see next years first round pick being traded is for a goalie at the deadline if the Avs netminding pair is struggling, or at the expansion draft to keep the roster intact.

Other than that, I think they’ll be adding a forward to the prospect pool with that pick.
Yeah, if we add a 3C I don't see the first being the price. As an expansion draft casualty though I could see it. I hadn't thought of that. Sakic has generally been conservative about moving those, but one thing that's defined his tenure so far is being willing to do things "the Avs never do", like signing NCAA free agents or drafting defensemen high. So I wouldn't count it out, especially given the uncertainty regarding junior seasons around the world and the difficulty of trying to scout in this environment.
 

McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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Remember that Goodrow and Coleman both cost 1st rounders, that might be Tampa going crazy and Sakic doesn't need to do that but just stating it is a possibility to potentially overpay.
Oh sure, and you never know with the draft and scouting being especially nuts this year with junior seasons compromised. But based on Sakic's history it seems more likely than not that we'll still have a late 1st.
 

henchman21

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IMHO, what I think will happen next year;

- Byram has a good chance of graduating
- Newhook becomes our top prospect
- Kaut has the biggest chance of graduating
- Foudy and Kovalenko move in the top five
- Ambrosio moves in top 7-ish as well
- Our goalers drop further down
- Our NCAA players all rise a bit

Yup all of this... I think the goalies could take a real tumble. Annunen and Werner have been bad to start the season. While both are overhyped, Annunen still deserves a good spot... just more around 8-10 than 6. Werner probably drops to the end, he's a long shot at best. Ambrosio and Leivermann will build hype... maybe Ranta too.
 

tigervixxxen

Optimism=Delusional
Jul 7, 2013
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If he does use it I doubt it would be a deadline thing. With no seconds for the next two years it would be prudent to keep the firsts at least as well.

I don’t expect that many graduations, at least to full-time status so a few may still qualify next summer. But once Byram and Newhook exit it will get thinner. A number of ELCs should get signed this spring/summer and that always changes perception a bit. Since Byram in July of 2019 the Avs have only signed one ELC (Annunen).

The non-pro portion of the pool has some decent options but what will keep the pool afloat is if anyone outside the first round doesn’t sink like a rock once they get to the AHL.

Werner has a contract and has played in the NHL, that will keep him above many for a while.
 
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henchman21

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Werner has a contract and has played in the NHL, that will keep him above many for a while.

I wouldn't be shocked if Werner didn't get re-signed, so I wouldn't count on him having an NHL contract next year. I don't think the Avs will give up his rights, but I can see them wanting to run Annunen/Miska in Loveland.
 

GoNordiquesGo

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Yeah, if we add a 3C I don't see the first being the price. As an expansion draft casualty though I could see it. I hadn't thought of that. Sakic has generally been conservative about moving those, but one thing that's defined his tenure so far is being willing to do things "the Avs never do", like signing NCAA free agents or drafting defensemen high. So I wouldn't count it out, especially given the uncertainty regarding junior seasons around the world and the difficulty of trying to scout in this environment.
Danault :)
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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Remember that Goodrow and Coleman both cost 1st rounders, that might be Tampa going crazy and Sakic doesn't need to do that but just stating it is a possibility to potentially overpay.
A good 3C could easily cost a late 1st at the deadline. Just look at what Pageau returned (1st + 2nd + conditional 3rd). Danault certainly would fetch a late 1st, and guys like Bonino or Cizikas could push close as well.
 

TruePowerSlave

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I doubt the Avs will be spending anything big on deadline rentals. Its just a dumb idea to sell your future for a few games especially when history shows that big name rentals don't win you cups.

The roster is already stacked, makes more sense to keep the window open for a longer period by holding onto 1st rounders and top prospects.
 

Pokecheque

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I doubt the Avs will be spending anything big on deadline rentals. Its just a dumb idea to sell your future for a few games especially when history shows that big name rentals don't win you cups.

The roster is already stacked, makes more sense to keep the window open for a longer period by holding onto 1st rounders and top prospects.

I'm fine with them booting a first rounder if it gives them a needed piece--they're still without a legit 3rd line center. That's not necessarily mortgaging the future, it only becomes that way if you keep doing it *coughPittsburghcough*.

Both teams in the last Cup final had their strengths and weaknesses, but both had insane depth up the middle. That, and goaltending are at present the Avs' biggest weaknesses.
 

DanishAvsfan

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I'm fine with them booting a first rounder if it gives them a needed piece--they're still without a legit 3rd line center. That's not necessarily mortgaging the future, it only becomes that way if you keep doing it *coughPittsburghcough*.

Both teams in the last Cup final had their strengths and weaknesses, but both had insane depth up the middle. That, and goaltending are at present the Avs' biggest weaknesses.
Yeah, I agree. A good third line centre should be a priority at this stage if he comes at the right price.
 
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Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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Yeah, I agree. A good third line centre should be a priority at this stage if he comes at the right price.
With a good 3C this forward group would certainly have cup-calibre depth in every position.

Landeskog ---- Mackinnon ----- Rantanen
Burakovsky ------ Kadri --------- Saad
Nichuskin --------- 3C ----------- Donskoi
Calvert --------- Bellemare ------ Compher
Jost/O'Connor/Kaut/Bowers/Newhook
 

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