HFAvs Prospect Ranking Poll #13
- Thread starter McMetal
- Start date
McMetal
Writer of Wrongs
- Sep 29, 2015
- 14,127
- 12,077
This one is really tough for me between Morrison and LOC, but I went with LOC because there's a chance Morrison goes UFA next summer, even if he has the higher ceiling.
I really think we could have something in LOC, he had a terrific AHL year, skates well, and could very well be a real home grown bottom sixer for us someday.
Add Leivermann again. Remember, only one added to the poll per round, so if you vote for two, I'll only count the first one.
I really think we could have something in LOC, he had a terrific AHL year, skates well, and could very well be a real home grown bottom sixer for us someday.
Add Leivermann again. Remember, only one added to the poll per round, so if you vote for two, I'll only count the first one.
expatriatedtexan
Habitual Line Stepper
- Aug 17, 2005
- 16,499
- 11,921
*LOL* For second I got confused and thought you meant Weiman. I was like woah, that dude is no longer a prospect....but he was the only goalie to end his career with the AVs with a 1.000 save percentage and a 0.00 GAA.
UncleRisto
Not Great, Bob!
cgf
FireBednarsSuccessor
Voting Weiss on achievable upside, since I know nothing about projecting goalies. I get folks voting Ranta hoping he's smart enough to become McPing 2.0, but I've just been burned by too many low-IQ toolsy projects 
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
Sampo in honor of scoring at the WJSS today.
Add Zhuravlyov, after that Mutala.
Add Zhuravlyov, after that Mutala.
Last edited:
- Aug 25, 2006
- 9,271
- 7,286
Werner, because swedish goalies can come out of nowhere and suddenly be awesome.
These guys are all long shots to play NHL minutes unfortunately... LOC will probably get some time...
These guys are all long shots to play NHL minutes unfortunately... LOC will probably get some time...
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
More votes for Sampo = more goals from Sampo 
- Feb 24, 2012
- 62,363
- 45,962
Getting into the who I like better (Ranta/Weiss) vs who I logically think has a better NHL chance (LOC/Morrison). I wasn't a big fan of LOC's signing last summer and I still don't think he has good upside. He's a bottom 6 guy at best... but he fits what Bednar wants like a glove and performed very well in the AHL. I feel pretty confident that he will get a chance on the 4th line next season... he may not make it long-term, but that might be more than anybody else realistically offers here. Of course Ranta and Weiss have more talent and could impact at a higher level if they make it... both have significant questions around them.
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
- 19,173
- 20,795
Developing good 4th liners internally is a crucial part of navigating the cap situation through a cup-contending window, so players like O'Connor are really useful in that regard.
After all, not everyone on a team needs to have Top 6 potential, and so if we can find young players to fill specific bottom 6 roles at a high level that would be awesome.
Yeah we are spending too much on our 4th line right now. As much as I like it today they will not be able to continue to spend that much in a couple of years. It should give us some time to find better options internally though.
- Feb 24, 2012
- 62,363
- 45,962
It tends to be very easy to say teams should build their 4th line from within... seems it doesn't happen all that much in practice. Tends to be a targeted UFA, a failed UFA, and failed prospect for most teams. If a team does develop a good 4th liner, you tend to get a year or two out of them before they head to UFA where a team pays them 3rd line money to be on the 4th line. This cycle seems to repeat over and over again. I'd love for the Avs to break it and build their own internal, cheap and long-term 4th line... it just doesn't seem realistic. And it really comes from one area... coaches. They like reliability and security of players like Calvert and PEB. They know they can rely on them day 1 to play within their role and be team guys. Whereas Greer has to learn how to apply his game in the NHL. No NHL coach wants a low upside player costing them games via penalties or bad plays... they want the 27 year old who has no upside, because you know what you're getting every game and they can game plan around it.
Yeah, but 6M (basically) is too much lol. My personal preference would be to have the center at that position be a long term fit. Like I wanted to keep McClement way back when. I would have been fine with keeping Mitchell as long as we did if he was actually used as the 4C for most of that time.
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
- 19,173
- 20,795
Yeah, between Nieto ($1.95m), Bellemare ($1.8m), and Calvert ($2.85m) that's $6.6m on that 4th line. Ideally you can get that down closer to $3-4m.
Thankfully all three of those contracts expire by 2021 when capspace really starts to matter, and we've got a few promising young guys who may be able to take on those roles at lower cap hits, including Kamenev, Bowers, Kaut, O'Connor, Kovalenko, etc.
Again, it's a bit expensive but hey, look at the "fourth line" the Stanley Cup champs rolled out this year (Steen - Barbashev - Sundqvist) which was almost more like a third line, but regardless it's an pricey one, especially now that Sundqvist re-upped.
Avs have some leeway here at least. They can afford to bolster the bottom six with veterans because they have a number of players either already on the roster or on their way in on ELCs. One would hope with all the friggin' bodies in Loveland that one or two of those guys will pan out as a role player of some kind at the NHL level.
If the Avalanche actually succeed in icing a more balanced lineup, it might be a first. They've always been a bit top-heavy in their glory days. I can still remember when Hartley rolled out a ridiculous lineup on opening night that featured scoring line winger Steve Brule (not the Adult Swim guy, the guy who turned around and shot on goal...right at Patrick Roy) and Alex Tanguay on the third line. No one here is saying they should be more like the Blues, all they have to accomplish is icing more than one line that can score and take on some defensive matchups so that the top line isn't getting overplayed.
The analytics guys insist you should just be throwing ELC guys as your 4th line, but that's just never, ever gonna happen. And really...I'm not sure it should. At some point, as Henchy pointed out, even your in-house 4th liners will become too expensive, so you just dive back into the bargain bin to get another one. It's not that hard to get a reasonably good fringe player to eat up 10-12 minutes a night and play every shift like it's his last. There are a ton of players who want that opportunity.
The key is not the money, it's the term. That's why that contract for Brandon Tanev is so ridiculously insane (and to a lesser extent, the amount of money Garnet effin' Hathaway got from Washington). The Avs learned from handing out three-year deals to their lunch pailers a few years back, it's just not something you should do. None of the 4th line guys are signed for more than two years. Term is a bit long for 3rd liners (Compher and Donskoi) but that's gonna happen from time to time.
Avs have some leeway here at least. They can afford to bolster the bottom six with veterans because they have a number of players either already on the roster or on their way in on ELCs. One would hope with all the friggin' bodies in Loveland that one or two of those guys will pan out as a role player of some kind at the NHL level.
If the Avalanche actually succeed in icing a more balanced lineup, it might be a first. They've always been a bit top-heavy in their glory days. I can still remember when Hartley rolled out a ridiculous lineup on opening night that featured scoring line winger Steve Brule (not the Adult Swim guy, the guy who turned around and shot on goal...right at Patrick Roy) and Alex Tanguay on the third line. No one here is saying they should be more like the Blues, all they have to accomplish is icing more than one line that can score and take on some defensive matchups so that the top line isn't getting overplayed.
The analytics guys insist you should just be throwing ELC guys as your 4th line, but that's just never, ever gonna happen. And really...I'm not sure it should. At some point, as Henchy pointed out, even your in-house 4th liners will become too expensive, so you just dive back into the bargain bin to get another one. It's not that hard to get a reasonably good fringe player to eat up 10-12 minutes a night and play every shift like it's his last. There are a ton of players who want that opportunity.
The key is not the money, it's the term. That's why that contract for Brandon Tanev is so ridiculously insane (and to a lesser extent, the amount of money Garnet effin' Hathaway got from Washington). The Avs learned from handing out three-year deals to their lunch pailers a few years back, it's just not something you should do. None of the 4th line guys are signed for more than two years. Term is a bit long for 3rd liners (Compher and Donskoi) but that's gonna happen from time to time.
Is 6M really too much at this point though? In an 82M cap world? Especially if you include the 13th forward into that 6M then you're talking less than 7.5% of the cap on 4/13 forwards or an average of 1.5M per guy.
I think its close to being fine. If you spend 6M on your 4th line + 13th forward and then 6M on your 3rd Pairing + 7th Dman + backup goalie...
Then you have 70M left to spend on your Top 9 Forwards and Top 4 Defense and Staring Goalie. An average of 5M per player which I think would be good money to spend. Especially if you have 1-2 ELC players in that group saving you a bunch of money.
If you had just 2 guys making 1M or less in your Top 9/4/1 grouping... now all of a sudden you have 68M for 12 players... almost 6M per player. Then you look at your 3rd line and they shouldn't be making more than ~3M each as well and your 2nd pairing likely making anywhere from 3-6M depending on how good they are but again likely not 6+....
Anyway completely off topic but I think ~1.5-2M per player for your bottom pairing/4th line is a pretty solid price.
I think its close to being fine. If you spend 6M on your 4th line + 13th forward and then 6M on your 3rd Pairing + 7th Dman + backup goalie...
Then you have 70M left to spend on your Top 9 Forwards and Top 4 Defense and Staring Goalie. An average of 5M per player which I think would be good money to spend. Especially if you have 1-2 ELC players in that group saving you a bunch of money.
If you had just 2 guys making 1M or less in your Top 9/4/1 grouping... now all of a sudden you have 68M for 12 players... almost 6M per player. Then you look at your 3rd line and they shouldn't be making more than ~3M each as well and your 2nd pairing likely making anywhere from 3-6M depending on how good they are but again likely not 6+....
Anyway completely off topic but I think ~1.5-2M per player for your bottom pairing/4th line is a pretty solid price.
RockyMtnRedhawk
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