NHL Entry Draft HF Sens - 2020 Draft - Top 75 Average Draft Ranking

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Bubba Pilks, Mar 29, 2020.

  1. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Yeah that would be an sick haul for sure. Imagine how bad I'd lose my shit if we got Mukhamadullin at 52.

    By the way, not that I expect you to change it, it makes sense to take all the vitals from a common source, but for the record Mukhamadullin is at least 6'3, maybe 6'4.

    But honestly, with how many picks we have in the top 80, and how stacked this draft is, it's pretty much guaranteed that we're gonna come away very happy.
     
  2. Alex1234 Registered User

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    A Must
    Nepean RHD
    18th in points among D in the entire OHL at 16 yo 38 points in 57 g
     
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  3. innocent bystander Registered User

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    I remember I think it was the second time I saw him play. Was the U17s last fall against USA. Down a goal in the dying minutes he had a forward coming in on him with a partial one on one, and he absolutely crushed the guy with an open ice hit to kill the rush dead in its tracks. His next shift with about a minute left, his point shot was tipped in for the tying goal. That's when I knew he was something special.

    Just an all-around horse of a defenseman, he's about as close as you're gonna get to Drew Doughty. Possible first overall pick.
     
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  4. HSF Registered User

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    I don’t think we use all our picks too many guys from the same draft

    a smarter play IMO would be to ‘help teams in cap trouble’ and moving picks as the asset going back like nucks getting jt Miller (obvi not moving a 1st)
     
  5. Alex1234 Registered User

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    Agree
    Better numbers then Doughty, Chabot, DeAngelo, Letang (all comparable in CHL at 16yo)

    From hockey news:

    Brandt Clarke, D, Barrie Colts
    Considering no other defenseman in his draft class has more than 11 points on the season, Clarke’s 35-point total is elite. He made his mark in the U17 World Hockey Championship in November, tying for second among all defensemen with six points in five games. He also has flashes of defensive brilliance, but Clarke will need to become most consistent in his own zone next season while maintaining his offensive prowess. Clarke draws comparisons to another Colt great, Aaron Ekblad.

    What do you think of L Hughes and O Power?
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  6. innocent bystander Registered User

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    I haven't seen Owen Power yet. Luke Hughes looks really good. More dynamic offensively than Lambos or Clarke but I'm not as sold on his defensive game yet. Lambos is actually my personal favorite of the bunch so far. Still super early but of the defensemen I've seen for 2021 so far I'd put it (I've seen them all between 2-4 times, except Grushnikov who I've seen at least 6):

    1. Carson Lambos
    2. Brandt Clarke
    3. Luke Hughes
    4. Simon Edvinsson
    5. Artyom Grushnikov
    6. Corson Ceulemans
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
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  7. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    Yeah all the heights and weights are from eliteprospects but are definitely outdated. I've read that hes at least 6'3 now.

    I wonder if the nhl/teams will do a virtual combine through webex or something to update player sizes amd do interviews. Without playoffs to narrow down lists, teams will want as much info as they can get their hands on.
     
  8. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    Every time I watched Foerster and later on Vierling for this years draft, I came away really really impressed with Clarke's game. The kid is just sooooo good and not just for his age.

    Barrie is going to be really good next year IMO.

    Back to the 2020 draft. Get your lists in by 4pm for the update.
     
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  9. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Updated my list. I've been watching a lot of video the past month, particularly players in the top ~40. So I've decided to trust my own opinion more and put less emphasis on stats and media scouting reports, especially at the top of the draft. I also only included players I've seen play at least once.

    I couldn't figure out what to do with Hendrix Lapierre so I left him off. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone else accidentally this time.

    1. Alexis Lafreniere

    2. Lucas Raymond

    3. Quinton Byfield

    4. Tim Stützle

    5. Alexander Holtz

    6. Jamie Drysdale

    7. Jake Sanderson

    8. Rodion Amirov

    9. Marco Rossi

    10. Anton Lundell

    11. Cole Perfetti

    12. Dawson Mercer

    13. Jack Quinn

    14. Kaiden Guhle

    15. Dylan Holloway

    16. Connor Zary

    17. Shakir Mukhamadullin

    18. Yaroslav Askarov

    19. Seth Jarvis

    20. Noel Gunler

    21. Jan Mysak

    22. Jeremie Poirier

    23. Ty Smilanic

    24. Mavrik Bourque

    25. Justin Barron

    26. John-Jason Peterka

    27. William Wallinder

    28. Vasili Ponomaryov

    29. Brendan Brisson

    30. Dylan Peterson

    31. Braden Schneider

    32. Thomas Bordeleau

    33. Marat Khusnutdinov

    34. Lukas Reichel

    35. William Villeneuve

    36. Jacob Perreault

    37. Tyson Foerster

    38. Helge Grans

    39. Antonio Stranges

    40. Cross Hanas

    41. Jake Neighbors

    42. Topi Niemelä

    43. Emil Andrae

    44. Ryan O'Rourke

    45. Martin Chromiak

    46. Jaromir Pytlik

    47. Luke Tuch

    48. Maxim Groshev

    49. Roni Hirvonen

    50. Luke Evangelista

    51. Will Cuyle

    52. Brock Faber

    53. Yan Kuznetsov

    54. Daniel Torgersson

    55. Jean-Luc Foudy

    56. Justin Sourdif

    57. Ridly Greig

    58. Tyler Kleven

    59. Eemil Viro

    60. Ozzy Wiesblatt

    61. Theodor Niederbach

    62. Sam Colangelo

    63. Zion Nybeck

    64. Jan Bednar

    65. Alexander Nikishin

    66. Jack Finley

    67. Kasper Simontaival

    68. Brett Berard

    69. Roby Jarventie

    70. Carter Savoie

    71. Ruben Rafkin

    72. Drew Comesso

    73. Daniil Gushchin

    74. Kasper Puutio

    75. Landon Slaggert
     
  10. bert Registered User

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    If thats what they ended up with id be doing cart wheels and may mix in an unexpected hug and high five for anyone who is in my social distancing area #riskitall.
     
  11. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    Updated list April 17 2020 -- Subject to change but closer than the 1st one imo

    Some of the changes: I used to be indecisive but now I'm not sure.
    I moved Stutzle to 2 over Byfield. They are pretty much a tie for me. I like Stutzle's small area game better. Since I did that I moved Drysdale to 4 because I could not justify him over Byfield. Just to be unpopular, I moved Holtz out of my top 10 and brought Quinn in. Lundell and Sanderson each move up 1 spot.


    1Alexis Lafreniere
    2Tim Stutzle
    3Quinton Byfield
    4Jamie Drysdale
    5Lucas Raymond
    6Marco Rossi
    7Cole Perfetti
    8Anton Lundell
    9Jake Sanderson
    10Jack Quinn
    11Yaroslav Askarov
    12Alexander Holtz
    13Noel Gunler
    14Dawson Mercer
    15Dylan Holloway
    16Seth Jarvis
    17Connor Zary
    18Jan Mysak
    19Braden Schneider
    20Kaiden Guhle
    21Mavrik Bourque
    22Jacob Perreault
    23Rodion Amirov
    24Hendrix Lapierre
    25John-Jason Peterka
    26Justin Barron
    27Lukas Reichel
    28William Wallinder
    29Jeremie Poirier
    30Helge Grans
    31Emil Andrae
    32Ryan O'Rourke
    33Marat Khusnutdinov
    34Lukas Cormier
    35Tyson Foerster
    36Zion Nybeck
    37Topi Niemela
    38Martin Chromiak
    39Roni Hirvonen
    40Brendan Brisson
    41Kasper Simontaival
    42William Villeneuve
    43Jaromir Pytlik
    44Vasily Ponomaryov
    45Jake Neighbours
    46Alexander Pashin
    47Thomas Bordeleau
    48Luke Evangelista
    49Tristen Robins
    50Jean-Luc Foudy
    51Ridly Greig
    52Shakir Mukhamadullin
    53Daniil Gushchin
    54Roby Jarventie
    55Maxim Groshev
    56Theodor Niederbach
    57Carter Savoie
    58Veeti Miettinen
    59Justin Sourdif
    60Ty Smilanic
    61Sean Farrell
    62Antonio Stranges
    63Ozzy Wiesblatt
    64Tyler Kleven
    65Luke Tuch
    66Michael Benning
    67Eemil Viro
    68Connor McClennon
    69Sam Colangelo
    70Dylan Peterson
    71Tyler Tullio
    72Will Cuylle
    73Yan Kuznetsov
    74Daniel Torgersson
    75Ryan Francis
     
  12. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Like the list overall. Of course there are gonna be some players that we disagree on, but do you mind my asking your thoughts on Amirov? That one seems a bit out there to me.
     
  13. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    I maybe underrating him a few places . I have him ranked in the same group of forwards with Zary, Mysak, Bourque, Perreault, Lapierre. Have not really seen him much since the U18s in 2019 where he was very good but .. I guess looking at his production after that .. I would have liked to see him play more so its kind of hard for me to put him above that group many who at least statistically have shown more improvement. Ignoring his total lack of production in the KHL.

    I think there is a fair number of very close forward prospects outside the top 10 , where I definitely would not rank him. So to me there is not a lot to really definitely separate a Gunler from a Jarvis from a Mysak and Amirov. So with my limited viewings and perhaps abilities that's how I have them.. I could change my mind on where those guys are as I continue to fill my days with research into prospects.

    I don't think I am that far out to lunch with it... I looked these up after you asked

    A consolidated ranking by our friend Colin Cudmore has him in a group with Zary , Mysak, Mercer , Bourque, Lapierre
    ISS has him with Zary, Lapierre and Gunler
    Bob McKenzie has him with Zary, Perreault, Jarvis, Petkera... (not accounting for Jarvis' great 2nd half)
    Drafting Europe has him outside the top 10 in the top 20.
    Tankathon Big board has him in a group with Gunler, Bourque , Lapierre
    FC has him in a group with Mysak, Jarvis, Bourque, Perreault
    Hockey Prospect.com had him in a group with Bourque, Lapierre, Perreault
    Jokke Nevalainen Euro scout for Dobber has tiers .. He is in a tier with Bourque and Lapierre

    I realize some people have him higher .. but tis the nature of the beast.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  14. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Fair enough. I guess it's one of those situations where I'm putting a lot of faith in my ability to predict translatability. His defensive play, offensive transition game, ability to skate dynamically and to make plays down low. Just seems like a surefire top six NHL player once he puts on the weight. I could be way off, but as far as I can tell his only question mark is high end upside.
     
  15. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    I have updated the OP with the updated lists from Innocent Bystander and Sens of Anarchy. Interesting movement in both of your lists. I'll be updating my list this week.

    Current Sens Draft Haul after Apr 19 - Update (Draft Changes and Lotto Not Included)

    HF Sens Rank
    Average
    Player
    Position
    Height
    Weight
    Team
    Shoots
    2​
    2.50​
    Quinton Byfield​
    C​
    6.04​
    214​
    Sudbury Wolves​
    Left​
    3​
    3.50​
    Tim Stutzle​
    C/LW​
    6.00​
    187​
    Adler Mannheim​
    Left​
    21​
    22.75​
    Mavrik Bourque​
    C​
    5.10​
    165​
    Shawinigan Cataractes​
    Right​
    33​
    36.75​
    Roni Hirvonen​
    C​
    5.09​
    163​
    Ässät​
    Left​
    49​
    57.63​
    Justin Sourdif​
    C​
    5.11​
    165​
    Vancouver Giants​
    Right​
    52​
    59.13​
    Jean-Luc Foudy​
    C​
    5.11​
    168​
    Windsor Spitfires​
    Right​
    53​
    59.25​
    Hendrix Lapierre​
    C​
    6.00​
    181​
    Chicoutimi Saguenéens​
    Left​
    64​
    69.13​
    Sam Colangelo​
    RW​
    6.02​
    205​
    Chicago Steel​
    Right​
    74​
    71.88​
    Rory Kerins​
    C​
    5.11​
    172​
    Soo Greyhounds​
    Left​

    Thats a whole lot of Centers. Though I project Stutzle to start on the LW and Bourque and Sourdif will likely end up as RW's in the NHL.
     
  16. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    We have to get more people contributing lists.. I see other Sens posters .. saying I have such and such here on my list .. .Let's produce the lists boys.
     
  17. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    Do you question Cole Perfetti's high end upside? I think he is one of the better prospects with the puck on his stick . Lafreniere, Stutzle, Raymond and Perfetti are the top 4 at that imo.
     
  18. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    Agreed, I'd definitely like to see more lists.

    Even with the 4 lists, we are starting to see some trends and tiers develop. It's starting to make me think of the trade options.

    Do we try and trade up from the Isles pick into this group

    Connor Zary
    Yaroslav Askarov
    Noel Gunler
    Dylan Holloway
    Seth Jarvis
    Rodion Amirov
    Dawson Mercer

    or do we stick around, hope one of those guys fall or try and move up from 31 and take two guys from this group

    Kaiden Guhle
    Mavrik Bourque
    William Wallinder
    Jacob Perreault

    Or do we go two in the top 1-6, keep 21, keep 33 and try and move up a couple times from our 50's pick and select 3 more guys in this group

    Jake Neighbours
    Roni Hirvonen
    Thomas Bordeleau
    Braden Schneider
    Topi Niemelä
    John-Jason Peterka
    Zion Nybeck
    Lukas Cormier
    Ryan O'Rourke
    Ozzy Wiesblatt

    So many options with the Draft Capital we've acquired.

    But yeah, back on topic. More lists gives us a better representation of what HFsens wants come draft day.
     
  19. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    my 2 cents
    Generally, without any outlandish drops, I would not make any decisions on trading up into that post top 10 forward group. I think its too close in there, and other D may move up into the teens to push a better forward down. Askarov dropping may be another story if he approaches late teens and the Sens want to move up 3-4 spots from the Isles pick with a late 2nd maybe. I don't know their appetite for another goalie but .. that is a goalie that would look better and better as he falls.

    I think moving up in the 2nd makes sense. .. It won't cost as much and there is a good chance a player we like falls into range.
     
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  20. Kryptekah Registered User

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    1: Alexis Lafreniere
    2: Tim Stutzle
    3: Quinton Byfield
    4: Jamie Drysdale
    5: Marco Rossi
    6: Lucas Raymond
    7: Cole Perfetti
    8: Alexander Holtz
    9: Jake Sanderson
    10: Rodion Amirov
    11: Jack Quinn
    12: Dawson Mercer
    13: William Villeneuve
    14: Connor Zary
    15: Noel Gunler
    16: Seth Jarvis
    17: Jacob Perreault
    18: William Wallinder
    19: Anton Lundell
    20: Hendrix Lapiere
    21: Yaroslavl Askarov
    22:Helge Grans
    23: Jean-Luc Foudy
    24: Jan Mysak
    25: Justin Barron
    26: Mavrik Bourque
    27: Dylan Holloway
    28: J.J Peterka
    29: Lukas Cormier
    30: Kaiden Guhle
    31: Tyson Foerster
    32: Emil Andrae
    33: Ryan O’Rourke
    34: Jeremie Poirier
    35: Luke Evangelista
    36: Braden Schneider
    37: Brenden Brisson
    38: Ryan Francis
    39: Tyler Tullio
    40: Zion Nybeck
    41: Roni Hirvonen
    42: Will Cuylle
    43: Jake Neighbours
    44: Jaromir Pytlik
    45: Lukas Reichel
    46: Martin Chromiak
    47: Ruben Rafkin
    48: Antonio Stranges
    49: Topi Niemela
    50: Ridley Greig
    51:Kasper Simontaival
    52: Thomas Bordeleau
    53: Eemil Viro
    54: Jack Thompson
    55: Justin Sourdif
    56: Ozzy Weisblatt
    57: Carter Savoie
    58: Luke Tuch
    59: Connor McClennon
    60: Jan.Bednar
    61: Brandon Coe
    62: Shakir Mukhamadullin
    63: Brady Burns
    64: Theo Rochette
    65: Daemon Hunt
    66:Egor Sokolov
    67: Ty Smilanic
    68: Sam Colangelo
    69: Tyler Kléven
    70: Yan Kuznetzov
    71: Dylan Peterson
    72: Vasiliy Ponomarev
    73: Evan Vierling
    74: Tristian Robins
    75: Oliver Suni
     
    Last edited by moderator : Apr 30, 2020
  21. innocent bystander Registered User

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    I would probably agree with that. You wouldn't have Byfield ahead of him? Not sure that I would, but it's probably close.

    I wouldn't say I question Perfetti's upside, I'd say there's a better chance he ends up a superstar than Lundell or Amirov, but I also don't think he's pure boom-or-bust. Trying to think of recent comparables who are smallish and not great skaters but elite puck skills. Mikael Granlund and Jordan Eberle are the best I can think of. So yeah, I'd say there's a good chance he's just a really good player but not elite. Although he seems to be a better, more creative playmaker than Eberle, so there's room for more, but even if he ends up an Eberle clone, that's a guy who might not always put up numbers especially under the Isles system, but he's near the top of the league in analytics on generating scoring chances.

    Just to pull some numbers out of my ass that don't mean anything, but to give an idea where I'm coming from, lets say Lundell has a 10% chance to be a superstar, an 80% chance to be a solid top nine center, and a 10% chance to bust. Amirov has a 15% chance to be a superstar, a 70% chance to be a top nine winger, and a 15% chance to bust. Then Perfetti has a 25% chance to be a superstar, a 50% chance to be a top nine scoring forward, and a 25% chance to bust.

    Of course I'm imaging that there is a perfectly clear cut binary between those three categories which the players will fall perfectly within. But that's roughly where my thinking is at. Where if Perfetti is a superstar it will be a pure offensive dynamo averaging 80+ points a year, if Lundell is a superstar it will be a two-way possession monster a la , O'Reilly, Bergeron, Toews, and the best high end comparable I've been able to come up with for Amirov would be something like Henrik Zetterberg. The mid-range for Perfetti would be something like Eberle or Granlund as I mentioned, for Lundell would be something like Mikko Koivu, Bo Horvat or Travis Zajac, and for Amirov would be something like Patrick Sharp or Justin Williams.
     
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  22. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    No I like Byfield but its more for his raw power and straight line speed than his puck handling and deftness. I get more of a Kieth Primeau vibe from Byfield than I do a Malkin vibe.. Maybe he is somewhere in between but more Primeau than Malkin. Byfield will be a hand full and a half to play against. I get there is more than the one aspect to ranking and Lundell is a smart 2 way player. I do think Perfetti is an elite offensive zone player if he can develop more breakaway speed I see lots of Patrick Kane in him. Perfetti could be quite Kane-esque on the PP even without the speed boost. I have Rossi over Perfetti but most of that is because of the compete level, motor and pace , if not speed Rossi has... but I could flip flop on that.
     
  23. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    OP Updated with GoldenBright Top 75. Our Top 3 picks remained the same and the rest ended up changing. I'd be very very happy with our first 5 picks.

    Current Sens Draft Haul after Apr 19 - Update (Draft Changes and Lotto Not Included)

    HF Sens RankAveragePlayerPositionHeightWeightTeamShoots
    22.60Quinton ByfieldC6.04214Sudbury WolvesLeft
    33.20Tim StutzleC/LW6.00187Adler MannheimLeft
    2123.40Mavrik BourqueC5.10165Shawinigan CataractesRight
    3336.90Braden SchneiderD6.02209Brandon Wheat KingsRight
    4956.10Shakir MukhamadullinD6.02170Tolpar UFALeft
    5259.50Ty SmilanicLW6.01170U.S. National U18Left
    5360.30Antonio StrangesC/LW5.10170London KnightsLeft
    6468.00Theodore NeiderbachC5.11172Frölunda HC J20Right
    7471.70Sean FarrellLW5.09179Chicago SteelLeft
     
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  24. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Haha holy shit. That's six players I have in my first round. Plus I'm a big Stranges fan. That would be unreal.
     
  25. Bubba Pilks Registered User

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    I can imagine you would be.........and it's actually 6 in your top 24.

    I have 4 in my top 20. I think a few of us are going to be happy come draft day.

    The great thing about this draft. Almost everyone will get a couple of their favorites.

    I'm even a fan of the guy in the 96 OA spot we own;

    9678.00Owen PedersonLW6.03187Winnipeg IceLeft

    61GP 28G 22A 50P. Could be a good long term project. Still has two years of junior eligibility left and we can't graduate 7 guys at once anyway.
     

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