HF GM Games Fantasy Mock Draft #3 - Discussion VI - PandaCan'tSnipeWellEnough (Voting is LIVE)

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
HF GM Games Fantasy Mock Draft #3

A new version of our mock drafts with some twists on the rules.

Salary Cap
  • 55M (floor) - 70M (ceiling)
Trades
  • Limited
  • Two trades total per team
  • A one-day trading period will occur following the conclusion of the draft (e.g., last pick is Saturday, trading period is Sunday, voting begins Monday)
Contracts
  • 2019-2020 cap hits will be used, excluding bonuses (i.e., use what you see on CapFriendly)
  • Players must have an active contract and have played at least one game in the last two seasons
Goal
  • To win the Stanley Cup this year
  • There will be secondary awards for "Best Future" (team with the best future) and "Best Drafting GM" (the GM you think drafted the best value overall)
Restrictions
  • GMs can self-impose restrictions if they so choose (examples include NCAA alumni only, Swedish only, 25 and under only, and more)
  • Any GM who takes on a reasonable (as determined by consensus and LT) restriction will be given an extra $5M ($75M total) in cap space to work with. The cap floor will not apply to any GM who takes on a restriction.
  • If the restriction is broken at the conclusion of the trading period, that GM will lose $15M in cap space ($60M total) and be disqualified from secondary awards
Playoff Format
  • Once all teams are filled but before the draft begins, the full playoff bracket will be posted
  • All 32 teams will make the playoffs with randomly assigned first round opponents
  • GMs will vote on each matchup to determine who will advance (vote for who you think would win each matchup, not who you think is the best - this provides more nuance to building a quality team)
  • The secondary awards will be voted on separately
  • At the conclusion of the draft, GMs will send in their top 5 teams for each secondary award
  • These will be tallied by the commissioner (who is ineligible to win either award) and a winner for each will be determined
Drafting/Time Limits
  • The draft will last 20 rounds; Each GM will select 12 forwards, 6 defenders, and 2 goaltenders
  • Clock will run from 10:00 AM EST to 12:00 AM EST (except for first day)
  • We will have a 2 hour clock for Rounds 1-3
  • The clock will be shortened to 1 hour for Rounds 4-14
  • The clock will be shortened to 30 minutes for Rounds 15-20
  • Missed picks will result in auto-skips until all missed picks are made up
  • Any GM who misses 3 picks will have their clock for all remaining picks cut in half
  • Any GM who misses 5 picks will have all future picks auto-skipped
  • Any GM who misses 10 picks will automatically forfeit their first round playoff matchup and be disqualified from secondary awards
Other Notes
  • Going over the cap or not reaching the cap floor will result in an automatic first round loss and a disqualification from secondary awards
  • You must keep track of your own cap situation and keep this updated in the Roster thread; failure to do so may result in penalties and cap audits
To join, PLEASE READ ALL RULES and PM me the top 3 teams you would like to have.
 

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
Teams/GMs List
Team
General Manager
Anaheim Ducks @AveryStar4Eva
Arizona Coyotes @Panda Bear
Boston Bruins @Llamamoto49
Buffalo Sabres @SJSharks39
Calgary Flames @Kent Nilsson
Carolina Hurricanes @BumDum
Chicago Blackhawks @Tryamkin
Colorado Avalanche @DanCloutiers5hole
Columbus Blue Jackets@Blinny
Dallas Stars @LatvianTwist
Detroit Red Wings @DatsyukianDekes13
Edmonton Oilers @Joey Moss
Florida Panthers @BeLeafing
Los Angeles Kings @McMozesmadness
Minnesota Wild @Peter Griffin
Montreal Canadiens @OB5
Nashville Predators @EvilDead
New Jersey Devils @Exquisite
New York Islanders @Cocoloco
New York Rangers @Paralyzer008
Ottawa Senators @Joey Moss
Philadelphia Flyers @NeoCanuck
Pittsburgh Penguins @Panda Bear
St. Louis Blues @Nucker101
San Jose Sharks @datboichoi
Seattle Kraken @m0pe
Tampa Bay Lightning @ConnorMcMullet
Toronto Maple Leafs @hockeynorth
Vancouver Canucks @Lucbourdon
Vegas Golden Knights @LatvianTwist
Washington Capitals @Makaveli
Winnipeg Jets @FanofBadHockeyTeam
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Current Restrictions

Team (GM)Restriction
Nashville (EvilDead)American Players Only
Seattle (m0pe)Stanley Cup Winners Only
Arizona (Panda Bear)Metropolitan Division Players Only
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
Playoff Bracket

San Jose Sharks
Chicago Blackhawks
Boston Bruins
St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Philadelphia Flyers
Arizona Coyotes
Seattle Kraken
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Buffalo Sabres
Colorado Avalanche
Vancouver Canucks
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights
Florida Panthers
Nashville Predators
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
New York Rangers
Winnipeg Jets
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Anaheim Ducks
Ottawa Senators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
Trades
Team 1Receives:Team 2Receives:
Vancouver146, 239Nashville127, 319
Detroit105, 216, 361Anaheim136, 200, 313
Washington110, 275St. Louis142, 206
Philadelphia148, 173, 237Boston124, 188, 252
Seattle214, 235, 299 Tampa Bay170, 279, 362
Toronto177, 433New Jersey 202, 330
Dallas184, 376New York R.190, 318
Winnipeg205, 333, 461New York I.245, 268, 396
San JoseMatt Duchene, Erik Gustafsson, 345ColoradoJohn Marino, Oliver Bjorkstrand, 352
CalgaryRyan Ellis, Esa LindellSeattleColton Parayko, Matt Niskanen
ChicagoZach Werenski, Anthony Beauvillier, 516Los AngelesBrendan Gallagher, Jakub Voracek, 418
Tampa Bay313, 472 Anaheim 342, 406
PittsburghTomas TatarMinnesotaTimo Meier
PhiladelphiaClaude Giroux, Dmitry Orlov, 341, 556BuffaloMikhail Sergachev, Jonathan Drouin, Kasperi Kapanen, Nolan Patrick
VancouverSeth Jones, Jonathan Huberdeau, David Krejci, 613CarolinaNathan MacKinnon, Calvin de Haan, Dante Fabbro, 383
PittsburghJustin Williams, Vince Dunn, 403, 467 St. LouisKyle Palmieri, Brayden McNabb, 384, 385
OttawaJohn Carlson, Nick Suzuki, Jake Gardiner, 415, 610Chicago Tyler Seguin, Chris Tanev, Alex Goligoski, 478, 547
Arizona Ryan Murray, 429 BostonDevon Toews, 463
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Three-Team Trade
XXXWashingtonDetroitVegas
Gives:William Karlsson, Jake Virtanen, Roope Hintz, 563Andreas Athanasiou, Andrew Shaw, Jack Roslovic, 441, 505Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel, Jeff Carter, 567, 624
Gets:Taylor Hall, Jeff Carter, Jack Roslovic, 505Phil Kessel, Roope Hintz, 563, 567, 624William Karlsson, Andreas Athanasiou, Andrew Shaw, Jake Virtanen, 441
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Stupid Four-Team Trade
XXXNew JerseyColumbusVegasToronto
Gives:Andrei Svechnikov, T.J. Brodie, Bryan Little, 400, 497Shea Theodore, 310, 331, 503Anthony Mantha, Kevin Fiala, Adam FoxElias Pettersson, 503, 567
Gets:Shea Theodore, Adam Fox, 310, 331, 503Anthony Mantha, T.J. Brodie, 400, 497Elias Pettersson, 503, 567Andrei Svechnikov, Kevin Fiala, Bryan Little
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Trades Remaining
Team
# TR
Anaheim Ducks 0
Arizona Coyotes 1
Boston Bruins 0
Buffalo Sabres 1
Calgary Flames 1
Carolina Hurricanes 2
Chicago Blackhawks 0
Colorado Avalanche 1
Columbus Blue Jackets1
Dallas Stars 1
Detroit Red Wings 0
Edmonton Oilers 2
Florida Panthers 2
Los Angeles Kings 1
Minnesota Wild 1
Montreal Canadiens 2
Nashville Predators 1
New Jersey Devils 0
New York Islanders 1
New York Rangers 1
Ottawa Senators 1
Philadelphia Flyers 0
Pittsburgh Penguins 0
St. Louis Blues 0
San Jose Sharks 1
Seattle Kraken 0
Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Vancouver Canucks 0
Vegas Golden Knights 0
Washington Capitals 0
Winnipeg Jets 1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703


Major update. Complete rosters.

I did a series of correlation studies to see how the different PandaRankings categories correlated to win percentage and goal differential. I did this using the real standings with real teams with real rosters, i.e. what you actually see when you look up the league standings.

PandaScores, which grade players, have a ~0.78 r-value for win percentage and ~0.8 r-value for goal differential.

PandaRankings, after a series of tweaks for just how to weight the different rankings, achieved a 0.854 r-value for win percentage and 0.887 r-value for goal differential. Given that these values were derived using my battery of statistics, this is phenomenal. That's right: PandaRankings have a 0.854 r-value for real-life win percentage.

My correlation started off at 0.74, and through a series of different techniques for weighting, I was able to get it this high. What's interesting, though, is how far some teams fell. As always, it's not perfect...but it's pretty f***ing good. Los Angeles is a major victim of the changes, but that's life.
 
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hockeynorth

Registered User
Aug 31, 2017
12,584
6,374


Major update. Complete rosters.

I did a series of correlation studies to see how the different PandaRankings categories correlated to win percentage and goal differential. I did this using the real standings with real teams with real rosters, i.e. what you actually see when you look up the league standings.

PandaScores, which grade players, have a ~0.78 r-value for win percentage and ~0.8 r-value for goal differential.

PandaRankings, after a series of tweaks for just how to weight the different rankings, achieved a 0.854 r-value for win percentage and 0.887 r-value for goal differential. Given that these values were derived using my battery of statistics, this is phenomenal. That's right: PandaRankings have a 0.854 r-value for real-life win percentage.

My correlation started off at 0.74, and through a series of different techniques for weighting, I was able to get it this high. What's interesting, though, is how far some teams fell. As always, it's not perfect...but it's pretty f***ing good.

Teams six and 15, sick.

Can I get some thoughts on my roster guys? Posted it in the old thread last.
:leafs
Andrei Svechnikov - Ryan Strome - Kevin Fiala
Brady Tkachuk - Brian Little - Kailer Yamamoto
Dominik Kubalik - Erik Haula - Filip Zadina
Yakov Trenin - Johan Larsson - Ryan Hartman

Ryan Suter - Erik Karlsson
Danny DeKeyser - PK Subban
Mike Matheson - Ilya Lyubushkin

Antti Raanta

Chris Driedger

Cap hit: $ 66,773,418.00
Cap space: $ 3,226,582.00
 

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
RankTeamPoints (Skaters)Points (Goalies)Points (Total)
1Toronto Maple Leafs93.4817.57111.05
2Pittsburgh Penguins93.7216.82110.54
3Dallas Stars91.4216.31107.73
4New Jersey Devils94.2411.2105.44
5Colorado Avalanche91.3613.22104.58
6Columbus Blue Jackets88.4812.6101.08
7San Jose Sharks85.2314.79100.02
8Minnesota Wild83.6815.6599.33
9Vegas Golden Knights82.171799.17
10Chicago Blackhawks82.9814.9997.97
11Anaheim Ducks82.4614.3896.84
12Washington Capitals79.4417.2996.73
13New York Rangers80.7515.2596
14Carolina Hurricanes74.4721.2995.76
15Philadelphia Flyers81.0914.3895.47
16Montreal Canadiens79.915.2295.12
17Seattle Kraken79.6715.4495.11
18Arizona Coyotes81.5512.7594.3
19Calgary Flames80.9313.3694.29
20Detroit Red Wings78.7715.1193.88
21Ottawa Senators79.6913.4293.11
22Nashville Predators81.4411.5592.99
23Los Angeles Kings75.4717.2292.69
24Boston Bruins77.0215.6392.65
25Florida Panthers77.5814.9192.49
26St. Louis Blues76.0815.6891.76
27Winnipeg Jets77.8113.5391.34
28Edmonton Oilers77.9812.190.08
29Tampa Bay Lightning78.4611.0989.55
30Vancouver Canucks78.5410.9489.48
31New York Islanders71.7112.3984.1
32Buffalo Sabres62.1413.9376.07
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
^^^

Assuming Vancouver picks Louis Domingue, but that won't affect much at all.
 

hockeynorth

Registered User
Aug 31, 2017
12,584
6,374
RankTeamPoints (Skaters)Points (Goalies)Points (Total)
1Toronto Maple Leafs93.4817.57111.05
2Pittsburgh Penguins93.7216.82110.54
3Dallas Stars91.4216.31107.73
4New Jersey Devils94.2411.2105.44
5Colorado Avalanche91.3613.22104.58
6Columbus Blue Jackets88.4812.6101.08
7San Jose Sharks85.2314.79100.02
8Minnesota Wild83.6815.6599.33
9Vegas Golden Knights82.171799.17
10Chicago Blackhawks82.9814.9997.97
11Anaheim Ducks82.4614.3896.84
12Washington Capitals79.4417.2996.73
13New York Rangers80.7515.2596
14Carolina Hurricanes74.4721.2995.76
15Philadelphia Flyers81.0914.3895.47
16Montreal Canadiens79.915.2295.12
17Seattle Kraken79.6715.4495.11
18Arizona Coyotes81.5512.7594.3
19Calgary Flames80.9313.3694.29
20Detroit Red Wings78.7715.1193.88
21Ottawa Senators79.6913.4293.11
22Nashville Predators81.4411.5592.99
23Los Angeles Kings75.4717.2292.69
24Boston Bruins77.0215.6392.65
25Florida Panthers77.5814.9192.49
26St. Louis Blues76.0815.6891.76
27Winnipeg Jets77.8113.5391.34
28Edmonton Oilers77.9812.190.08
29Tampa Bay Lightning78.4611.0989.55
30Vancouver Canucks78.5410.9489.48
31New York Islanders71.7112.3984.1
32Buffalo Sabres62.1413.9376.07
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Toronto 1st and Vegas 9th? Yes please!
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703
Teams six and 15, sick.

Can I get some thoughts on my roster guys? Posted it in the old thread last.
:leafs
Andrei Svechnikov - Ryan Strome - Kevin Fiala
Brady Tkachuk - Brian Little - Kailer Yamamoto
Dominik Kubalik - Erik Haula - Filip Zadina
Yakov Trenin - Johan Larsson - Ryan Hartman

Ryan Suter - Erik Karlsson
Danny DeKeyser - PK Subban
Mike Matheson - Ilya Lyubushkin

Antti Raanta

Chris Driedger

Cap hit: $ 66,773,418.00
Cap space: $ 3,226,582.00
I still think you should switch Fiala and Svechnikov.

Tkachuk - Strome - Svechnikov
Fiala - Little - Yamamoto

Both Tkachuk and Yamamoto are fantastic forecheckers, and I feel like--despite their huge size difference--they have enough similarities in how they approach the game that they would overlap. Line one becomes F1/F3/F2 with crease-crashing power forward, two-way forward, and all-star winger with amazing shot. Line two becomes F2/F3/F1 where you have two wingers with a lot of compete, but one likes to rag the puck while the other is more give-and-go.
 

hockeynorth

Registered User
Aug 31, 2017
12,584
6,374
I still think you should switch Fiala and Svechnikov.

Tkachuk - Strome - Svechnikov
Fiala - Little - Yamamoto

Both Tkachuk and Yamamoto are fantastic forecheckers, and I feel like--despite their huge size difference--they have enough similarities in how they approach the game that they would overlap. Line one becomes F1/F3/F2 with crease-crashing power forward, two-way forward, and all-star winger with amazing shot. Line two becomes F2/F3/F1 where you have two wingers with a lot of compete, but one likes to rag the puck while the other is more give-and-go.
Ouuuuuuu I love that, thats a great idea like that panda. Didn't know that about Yamamoto

Brady Tkachuk - Ryan Strome - Andrei Svechnikov
Kevin Fiala - Brian Little - Kailer Yamamoto
Dominik Kubalik - Erik Haula - Filip Zadina
Yakov Trenin - Johan Larsson - Ryan Hartman

That does look good to me
 

m0pe

Registered User
Feb 24, 2020
4,277
4,706
RankTeamPoints (Skaters)Points (Goalies)Points (Total)
1Toronto Maple Leafs93.4817.57111.05
2Pittsburgh Penguins93.7216.82110.54
3Dallas Stars91.4216.31107.73
4New Jersey Devils94.2411.2105.44
5Colorado Avalanche91.3613.22104.58
6Columbus Blue Jackets88.4812.6101.08
7San Jose Sharks85.2314.79100.02
8Minnesota Wild83.6815.6599.33
9Vegas Golden Knights82.171799.17
10Chicago Blackhawks82.9814.9997.97
11Anaheim Ducks82.4614.3896.84
12Washington Capitals79.4417.2996.73
13New York Rangers80.7515.2596
14Carolina Hurricanes74.4721.2995.76
15Philadelphia Flyers81.0914.3895.47
16Montreal Canadiens79.915.2295.12
17Seattle Kraken79.6715.4495.11
18Arizona Coyotes81.5512.7594.3
19Calgary Flames80.9313.3694.29
20Detroit Red Wings78.7715.1193.88
21Ottawa Senators79.6913.4293.11
22Nashville Predators81.4411.5592.99
23Los Angeles Kings75.4717.2292.69
24Boston Bruins77.0215.6392.65
25Florida Panthers77.5814.9192.49
26St. Louis Blues76.0815.6891.76
27Winnipeg Jets77.8113.5391.34
28Edmonton Oilers77.9812.190.08
29Tampa Bay Lightning78.4611.0989.55
30Vancouver Canucks78.5410.9489.48
31New York Islanders71.7112.3984.1
32Buffalo Sabres62.1413.9376.07
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Seattle 17th
Arizona 18th

YOU GUYS NOW KNOW WHO TO VOTE FOR.
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703
For the record, McDavid is a huge, huge, huge advantage for me.

If I reduce his scores to a mid-range first round player, Pittsburgh immediately drops 5.07 points in the standard deviation sums that are used to calculate the final rankings. If we drop the value of my third-round pick, which I used on Giordano, to the end of the round, I drop another 2 points.
 
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Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703
Ouuuuuuu I love that, thats a great idea like that panda. Didn't know that about Yamamoto

Brady Tkachuk - Ryan Strome - Andrei Svechnikov
Kevin Fiala - Brian Little - Kailer Yamamoto
Dominik Kubalik - Erik Haula - Filip Zadina
Yakov Trenin - Johan Larsson - Ryan Hartman

That does look good to me
People call him a honey badger because of how tenacious and effective he is on the forecheck. He's over two standard deviations above average for loose puck recoveries per 60, which is a good statistical measure for that.
 
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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
For the record, McDavid is a huge, huge, huge advantage for me.

If I reduce his scores to a mid-range first round player, Pittsburgh immediately drops 5.07 points in the standard deviation sums that are used to calculate the final rankings. If we drop the value of my third-round pick, which I used on Giordano, to the end of the round, I drop another 2 points.

part of what I like about X TPS is that McDavid isn't even first. The distribution is quite a bit more normal.
 

hockeynorth

Registered User
Aug 31, 2017
12,584
6,374
People call him a honey badger because of how tenacious and effective he is on the forecheck. He's over two standard deviations above average for loose puck recoveries per 60, which is a good statistical measure for that.
I knew he was decent on D which is why that Tkachuk line would've been for matchups but didn't realize he was THAT tenacious. Thanks!
 

AveryStar4Eva

Registered User
Aug 28, 2014
7,453
5,782
RankTeamPoints (Skaters)Points (Goalies)Points (Total)
1Toronto Maple Leafs93.4817.57111.05
2Pittsburgh Penguins93.7216.82110.54
3Dallas Stars91.4216.31107.73
4New Jersey Devils94.2411.2105.44
5Colorado Avalanche91.3613.22104.58
6Columbus Blue Jackets88.4812.6101.08
7San Jose Sharks85.2314.79100.02
8Minnesota Wild83.6815.6599.33
9Vegas Golden Knights82.171799.17
10Chicago Blackhawks82.9814.9997.97
11Anaheim Ducks82.4614.3896.84
12Washington Capitals79.4417.2996.73
13New York Rangers80.7515.2596
14Carolina Hurricanes74.4721.2995.76
15Philadelphia Flyers81.0914.3895.47
16Montreal Canadiens79.915.2295.12
17Seattle Kraken79.6715.4495.11
18Arizona Coyotes81.5512.7594.3
19Calgary Flames80.9313.3694.29
20Detroit Red Wings78.7715.1193.88
21Ottawa Senators79.6913.4293.11
22Nashville Predators81.4411.5592.99
23Los Angeles Kings75.4717.2292.69
24Boston Bruins77.0215.6392.65
25Florida Panthers77.5814.9192.49
26St. Louis Blues76.0815.6891.76
27Winnipeg Jets77.8113.5391.34
28Edmonton Oilers77.9812.190.08
29Tampa Bay Lightning78.4611.0989.55
30Vancouver Canucks78.5410.9489.48
31New York Islanders71.7112.3984.1
32Buffalo Sabres62.1413.9376.07
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yes I ended up in the top half of a ranking!
 
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Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703
part of what I like about X TPS is that McDavid isn't even first. The distribution is quite a bit more normal.
McDavid just has ridiculous, ridiculous scores when it comes to things like xGoals adjusted for shooting talent, created xGoals, even-strength scoring impact, powerplay scoring, zone entries, zone exits, and dangerous passing. He's generational, and maybe X TPS doesn't capture that.
 
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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,655
13,126
McDavid just has ridiculous, ridiculous scores when it comes to things like xGoals adjusted for shooting talent, created xGoals, even-strength scoring impact, powerplay scoring, zone entries, zone exits, and dangerous passing. He's generational, and maybe X TPS doesn't capture that.

It's mostly because he's had a "down" year in PS. Or more accurately, a bunch of other players have "caught up" this season only.

Last year it was Kucherov, McDavid, and then a drop off.

And the year before, he has almost a full point over everyone.
 
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Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
6,572
5,703
It's mostly because he's had a "down" year in PS. Or more accurately, a bunch of other players have "caught up" this season only.

Last year it was Kucherov, McDavid, and then a drop off.

And the year before, he has almost a full point over everyone.
Does McDavid lose out for having missed games to injury?
 

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