HF Fantasy Draft Talk pt3

Discussion in 'GM Games and HF Leagues' started by Panda Bear, Nov 11, 2020.

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  1. Panda Bear Registered User

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    I thought all your teams were restriction teams?!

    #burn
     
  2. Kent Nilsson J’tun fighter

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    Do you believe we are in the matrix ?
     
  3. hockeynorth Registered User

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    Yes hbu
     
  4. hockeynorth Registered User

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  5. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    50/50 shot.
     
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  6. hockeynorth Registered User

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  7. LT Global Moderator

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    The U23 one? I didn’t even make the playoffs :laugh:

    I also had to break my restriction to make the cap floor
     
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  8. hockeynorth Registered User

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    It was such a cool team though, not the best but one of the coolest for sure
     
  9. AveryStar4Eva Registered User

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    Might as well get a little cap relief this time around hahaha. I’ll be insanely impressed if anyone can figure out what my restrictions is before the end of next game
     
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  10. hockeynorth Registered User

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    Dont forget, < 400 players
     
  11. AveryStar4Eva Registered User

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    The list is 110 players
     
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  12. hockeynorth Registered User

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    damn
     
  13. AveryStar4Eva Registered User

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    Will probably be a massive fail, but at least I’m giving it a go
     
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  14. ConnorMcMullet #12 Colby Cave

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    Isn't that me? No, I voted my team 1st in the division.

    Lol I'd me more angry if I hadn't also woken up to a beauty of a goal by Dylan "Best Player Not Currently in the NHL" Holloway. And the vote is just 6-5, still plenty of time for that to flip.

    @Paralyzer008 let's here your brutally honest take on the Montreal/Philly matchup.
     
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  15. BeLeafing Registered User

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    Maybe they aren't aligned correctly then, but that's what the spreadsheet said
     
  16. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    Brutally honest take?

    Goalies are basically equal.

    Panda keeps saying his D is amazing, it's alright. Panda has before told me how Erik Gustafsson is terrible defensively and I'd take Gostisbehere over him frankly but find them pretty close to even - and I like them more than the average voter here.

    Krug is good, Lindholm is good, Manson/Chychrun are fine D-men to me, Weegar is good.

    For me it comes down to whose forwards do I like more? Matthews scores goals, Stamkos scores goals (Matthews is better defensively). Ovechkin is an animal on the PP and Panda's PP is going to be a problem because it's not like MTL will have an elite PK. If we swap Palmieri to line 2, I'd argue MTL's top six is slightly more well-rounded because Ehlers + Couture can make plays but so can Fiala. Kreider is straight line speed. I think Clifford-Larsson-Reaves is a REALLY good 4th line. I find Bonino + Zajac both a bit overrated. EDIT: Palmieri on line 3 does give some line matching options that work in MTL's favour too. Guess it's not totally fair to say IF though, so in that case, Hornqvist is a coin flip for if he works there still.

    If I would say "okay who has CLEAR advantages?" - I think PHI's PP is a clear advantage. I think MTL's 2c is definitely better than PHI's 2C. Fiala + Ehlers are similar level. Kreider + DeBrusk are similar level to me. Ovechkin is going to score more goals maybe than Palmieri/Hornqvist combined. Some complete "who knows?" with Grigorenko, Barabanov and Foudy. Romanov I think is NHL calibre already, Foote not quite. I think PHI is slightly better on paper but their lack of playmakers worries me, but also they probably have enough talent to win in seven games.

    If you break it down by line though, I am still not convinced that a Ovechkin-Dvorak-Smith line works at 5v5. Also when it comes to shutting down, Lindholm-Manson has done it before, Panda doesn't have a real shutdown pair to put on Matthews. So could MTL win in 7 games due to the matchups? I think so. If that pairing shuts a line down and then the Ovy line doesn't work whatsoever, the Panda team could end up being a bit Edmonton-y relying on the PP. That theory though depends on if you still believe in that pairing being as good as when they shut McDavid down.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
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  17. ConnorMcMullet #12 Colby Cave

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    I'd add Chychrun vs E. Johnson as a clear advantage for me. Ghost and Gustafsson are similar, but I have Chychrun to carry my 2nd pairing while he has an aging Erik Johnson.

    I also don't think his PP will be quite as effective as it might seem. Stamkos will be playing the bumper position rather than his usual left half-wall, and he lacks a true playmaker to set up his snipers. Backstrom is a major reason why Washington's PP is so good and Fiala is not at the same level in terms of passing.

    His 2nd line relies on Dvorak's playmaking to take a major step forward. Ovy's EV production would likely take a hit going from being centered by Kuzy/Backstrom to Christian Dvorak.
     
  18. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    1st part I do agree with.

    2nd part I can kind of get behind but also keep in mind Krug is a PP rover so as much as he can set up Ovechkin for one timers like Carlson does, Krug can also make defenses move around and that's how Stamkos will benefit. Fiala is not Backstrom on the PP but he can still make plays for sure. It's a dynamic PP but yes, the mix is a lot of shooting, not a lot of passing necessarily.

    3rd part is a concern for me personally.
     
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  19. ConnorMcMullet #12 Colby Cave

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    I'm also interested to hear your thoughts (or anyone else's) on the Nashville/Dallas matchup. I think I have the better team but I wouldn't fault anyone for voting Dallas (unlike you scrubs who voted for Philly) as he has the clear edge in defense.
     
  20. Panda Bear Registered User

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    what the f*** are you talking about

    what I have said is that it would be good at zone exits, transition plays, and chance generation in the offensive zone.

    i know what an amazing defence looks like, and this is merely adequate with legitimate boom potential from bottom pair
     
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  21. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    Okay my bad then! I agree with all of this.

    It's an alright D.

    Had it super close. I like Merzlikins next year a smidgen more than Khudobin. I like his D more because I'd especially take Fowler-Marino over Yandle-Hamonic (and I've personally always viewed Cernak as "meh"). Very comparable top lines. NSH has the clear better 2nd line. It is a seven game series to me but I guess I kinda believe Dallas is a bit better at goal prevention? Someone could vote either way and I'd be able to argue for it. Hintz is good and I would take him over Granlund at C but I don't view him as a CLEAR upgrade on Granlund in all facets where as other matchups that DAL could get will see him get creamed there.
     
  22. Panda Bear Registered User

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    If you watch Ovechkin goal compilations at even strength over the past few seasons, he scores a lot of goes in three ways: 1) someone attacking the net drop passes for him; 2) someone driving the net sees that he's far to their left (because his shot is so good, he can be way wider than a normal player) so they pass it to their left; or 3) broken plays around the slot. He's still amazing at catching passes, deking to open up lanes and shooting.

    Neither of those passing plays require phenomenal creativity, and Dvorak and Smith can execute both of them. There's a lot less Backstrom/Kuznetsov genius than you'd expect.

    Part of this issue is remedied by the fact that Ovechkin would have Krug and Gustafsson with him frequently, and both of them are creative on the puck.

    As for the powerplay, you're right that there isn't a passer the level of Backstrom. When your powerplay is designed around one shooter, it's critical that there is an elite passer who can break down the defence who is expecting that pass to happen at some point.

    This powerplay doesn't have that problem given that Fiala has a wicked one-timer while Stamkos is Stamkos. Even if bumper wouldn't be his preferred powerplay position, so many of his shots at even strength come from around the slot because he's so damn good at ghosting into open space where there doesn't seem to be any.

    Here's a sample routine:
    • Ovechkin is being Ovechkin
    • Krug walks the line
    • Krug dishes to Fiala
    • Fiala fakes a one-timer and slap passes to Kreider, who has drifted wide of net
    • Kreider handles and passes to bumper
    • One of the penalty killers is recovering from having cheated left to cover Ovechkin
    • Kreider passes to Stamkos, who has ghosted open
    • Stamkos scores from the slot
     
  23. Panda Bear Registered User

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    why do i write this when it's not necessary

    also i really enjoy paralyzer writeups
     
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  24. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    Craig Smith would help the crash the net for rebounds for Ovy, in your favour.

    The routine makes sense but Kreider being a key to the play passing wise is funny to me a little. Maybe I'm wrong but Kreider has always been a "I stand in front and deflect and try to stay in my office" kind of guy - so I still think that Krug's roving is going to be a catalyst for Stamkos moreso than Kreider would be. Kreider screens for Stammer/Ovy/Fiala shots though is fun.
     
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  25. ConnorMcMullet #12 Colby Cave

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    If I lose to Panda, will that be the first time in HF Fantasy Draft history that the team ranked #1 in the league loses in the 1st round?

    (I think Philly is better than the average WC2 team though, the Metro was very deep)
     
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