Hextall's Moves

[Foggy14]

Do we know how many years Hakstols contract is? When it ends?

That's what I'm most interested in, seeing if Hextall extends him or let's him leave.

Edit- Found it. 5 years. This year is this third...

A five year deal for a college coach with zero pro coaching experience.

Mind boggling then, mind boggling now.

 

[deadhead]

That's exactly my point...

He's seen a ton of Lindblom already and isn't using 4 preseason games to judge him. He never had a chance, he was always going down.

Hextall used pre-season to guage progress and how the players adjusted to a higher level of competition.
Lindblom had the opportunity to convince Hextall, it's not just the 4 games, it's also practice.

A five year deal for a college coach with zero pro coaching experience.

Mind boggling then, mind boggling now.

What coach with options, looking at the Flyers' roster four years ago, the cap situation and Hextall's plans to rebuild, would have accepted a short-term deal to coach this team?
It was pretty obvious that the team was not going to have the talent to play Hakstol's (or Knob's) offensive scheme for four years.
So if you have to go through rebuilding hell, I'm gonna want a long-term deal that rewards me for suffering.

 

[BernieParent]

Outside of a few elite players, how many NHL players hit their strike at 20? 21? 22? 23?
Point is fans want to see prospects right away because of the novelty factor, but Hextall been around the game for 3 decades, he's seen a lot of talent young players crash and burn because they were rushed to the NHL.
The Flyer prospects who skipped a year of junior - Provorv (#7), Konency (#24), Patrick (#2).
Laughton (#20) played a half season in the AHL at 20 years old, came up, played at 21, struggled, went down at age 22, back at age 23.

Most of the Flyer prospects aren't 1st rd picks, so they're likely to take longer to develop (since if they were that talented and polished, they would have been drafted higher).

Look at some drafts:
2015:
1st rd, Strom #3 (AHL), Meier #9 (half year AHL at 20), Gurianov #12 (KHL), Zboril #13 (AHL), Debursk #14 (full AHL at 20), Sensyhyn #15 (AHL), Barzal #16 (2 years junior), Conner #17 (50 AHL games at 20), Chabot #18 (2yr jun, 10 games AHL), Svechnikov #19 (2nd year AHL), Ek #20 (SHL/NHL 19), White #21 (2yr BC, now AHL), Samsonov #22 (KHL), Boeser #23 (2yr ND, NHL at 20), Roslovic #25 (2nd AHL), Juulsen #26 (AHL inj), Larsson #27 (AHL), Beauvillier #28 (1 jun), Carlsson #29 (NHL at 20), Merkley #30 (AHL)
So most of the top 10 make it early, a few after that skip their junior season, the rest either hit the NHL at 20+, with some still in the AHL.
And those are 1st rd picks.

2nd rd, only 2 players made it early, Aho #35, Carlo #37, a few this season, Fischer #32, Greer #39, Sprong #46, Dunn #56
Notice only two players in the NHL from 41-100
Others, Malgin, #102, Nutivaara #189

2014:
top 10 picks, 7 have played over 100 games. 4 of the next 20.
After the 1st rd, Barbashev #33, (1 1/2 in AHL), Montour #55 (1 1/2 in AHL), Dvorak #58 (2yr jun then NHL), Tryamkin #61 (KHL to NHL at 21), Point #79 (2 yr jun), Arvidsson #112 (1 yr + AHL), LaBanc #171 (19 AHL games)

So it's very rare for players outside of the 1st rd to make the NHL in three years, and even then many spend a year or more in the AHL.
So it's really no surprise that almost all our prospects outside the 1st rd spend a year in the AHL, it's pretty normal for prospects who aren't elite to spend 1-2 years in the AHL.

I'll begrudgingly agree, but it seems that the NHL is on an accelerated evolve to giving prospects a significant chance to shine. About 5 years ago, Detroit was the model franchise for overcooking prospects; now we see young'uns with junior eligibility up and contributing. I know that confirmation bias is blocking me from seeing facts like Sergachev in TBay behind flotsam like Girardi and the recent avalanch of high-tier prospects (McDavid et al) skews the equation, but there's a distinct sense of letting the young guys play in the big leagues without paying the requisite dues.

 

[deadhead]

Go back and look at recent drafts like 2013, 2014, and 2015.
Now look at the top 10, the next 10, the next 20 and the rest of the draft.
The top ten generally spend no more than their post-draft year in junior.
The next ten is a mixed bag, some arrive quickly, some spend two years in junior, a few spend a year in the AHL
21-40, very few get to the NHL quickly, most spend some time in the AHL, and a number over a year in the AHL.
After pick 40, very few players get to the NHL without at least a year in the AHL, and many spend 2-3 years there.
If you focus on the exceptions, you get a skewed perspective.

The reason you get picked high is you're both talented and advanced in your development (less risk, faster payoff).
Now look at the Flyers:
Provorov #7 - post draft junior
Patrick #2 - directly to NHL
Couts #8 - directly to NHL
Konency #24 - post draft junior
Giroux, Laughton, half AHL season, Laughton returned for another season.
Morin #11 - 2 AHL seasons (but he was a project when drafted)
Sanheim #17 - little over 1 AHL season

The prospects that are being "marinated" are most 3rd to 5th rd picks, Hagg was 2nd rd, NAK 2nd rd, rest are later round picks.
Lindblom (5th rd) at 21 will probably spend no more than half a season in the AHL
Martel is a UDFA, MV a UDFA signed out of college
Vorobyev (4th rd) may spend this year in the AHL, but I doubt he'll start there next year
Morin got sidetracked by injuries.

So Hextall really isn't that radical, he might err on being conservative, but not by a wide margin.

 

[Curufinwe]

That's exactly my point...

He's seen a ton of Lindblom already and isn't using 4 preseason games to judge him. He never had a chance, he was always going down.

False. If he had played at a higher level, he would have made the team.

 

[Magua]

For whatever old school reason, the Flyers have an organizational strategy where they want to tear down kids' confidences and make them sweat it at every opportunity. To a degree, making them earn it is always correct and necessary, but the Flyers have a tendency to go beyond that and make their kids uncomfortable to play their games. They give them little margin for error and about as much space to thrive.

That shit might work for Ivan Provorov, but 95% of kids aren't robotic assassins. They don't need to always feel like they're walking on eggshells.

 

[Striiker]

Hextall used pre-season to guage progress and how the players adjusted to a higher level of competition.
Lindblom had the opportunity to convince Hextall, it's not just the 4 games, it's also practice.

I don't believe for a second that Hextall is judging players off of 4 games, against a mix of CHL/AHL/NHL players, and some practices. It just makes no sense.

You can't gauge jack shit off of that. Not that small of a sample size, not against that competition, not when players are that rusty.

You're the one always talking about how hes looking long term at the big picture. There's no way you really believe he's this shortsighted when it comes to judging prospects in preseason.

 

[Striiker]

False. If he had played at a higher level, he would have made the team.

Remember a few years ago when Ghost looked great in preseason (in 2015 I think he had 3 goals in 3 games) and still went down?

It was because it was their plan to give him time to work on his game. Scoring some goals didn't change that.

Same with Lindblom.

Whether or not I agree that he needs that time is a different topic.

 

[deadhead]

Scoring goals is meaningless in pre-season, even top players have hot and cold streaks, so if you're judging a player in pre-season, points are irrelevant in a SSS.
What matters are the skills and fundamentals needed to be a positive player at the NHL level, if you're scoring because you're "cherry picking" (handing out at the blue line waiting for a pass) that's a negative.
On the other hand, if you're making great setups and your teammates don't score, you're still making good plays.
Lucky shots won't translate to the regular season, a quick release and accuracy will pay off eventually.

Ghost needed a year in the AHL, it's taken three years for his defense to improve and he still makes too many mistakes. You live with it because of his offensive prowness, but you'd prefer that he was more disciplined (which is not being passive, just better ice sense when to gamble). And I'm sure they saw that when they sent him down.
Sanheim admitted that in juniors he was just told to take over games and didn't worry about defense, and he needed the year in the AHL to learn how to play defense.
Let's face it, if you're whining about NHL coaches, imagine the coaching most of these kids get in college and juniors.

Hextall is also wary of promoting younger players because of the risk of shoulder injuries for a kid who isn't fully developed physically - and those injuries can impact a prospect's entire career.

 

[Striiker]

Scoring goals is meaningless in pre-season, even top players have hot and cold streaks, so if you're judging a player in pre-season, points are irrelevant in a SSS.
What matters are the skills and fundamentals needed to be a positive player at the NHL level, if you're scoring because you're "cherry picking" (handing out at the blue line waiting for a pass) that's a negative.

Again... I know... that's my point...

Lindblom not scoring is meaningless and the rest of his game was NHL level. They even praised him for it.

You're agreeing with me while trying to argue...

 

[deadhead]

Some of his game was NHL level, his board work, his defense.
Some of his game was off, his timing especially. Both he and Vorobyev looked like they were a half second off, and they looked that way initially in the AHL.
Which isn't surprising, the smaller ice changes both angles and how long windows stay open, and there's probably an ajustment period where you learn what worked in the SHL doesn't on NA ice.
And Lindblom is only 21, it's not like there's this great rush. A couple months in the AHL won't end his career.
But I'll be shocked if he's still there in January.

 

[Striiker]

Even if he looked a couple seconds off, and I don't think he did, a lot of players look like that, due to rust. That's the point of preseason, to get up to real game speed.

 

[Tripod]

Deadhead...just answer the simple question:

Did Hextall plan on Lindblom being in the AHL to start the season?

 

[deadhead]

I suspect Hextall didn't plan on anything, in the sense he had a stable of veteran wingers who could fill in for a couple months.
I think he planned on Lindblom starting at LW at some point this season.
I think he also thought about keeping MV on the team as well.
Both players will probably be up by Christmas, they're not far from being NHL ready.
I don't think he planned on Patrick getting injured and his development pushed back a month.

I think Hextall thought he'd get more out of his veterans than he has, not great play but adequate play for a month or two.
I also think he's perplexed with his fourth line, 1 ES goal in 17 games is just plain hard to do, when you control the puck that much, you usually get a few lucky goals.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Filppula sure isn't looking all that hot.

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Vecchione and Martel up...(1.58 million)
Lehtera and Raffl down...(3.45 million)
Hexy's team needs to get GOALS and its about time call-ups!

 

[Tripod]

I suspect Hextall didn't plan on anything, in the sense he had a stable of veteran wingers who could fill in for a couple months.
I think he planned on Lindblom starting at LW at some point this season.
I think he also thought about keeping MV on the team as well.
Both players will probably be up by Christmas, they're not far from being NHL ready.
I don't think he planned on Patrick getting injured and his development pushed back a month.

I think Hextall thought he'd get more out of his veterans than he has, not great play but adequate play for a month or two.
I also think he's perplexed with his fourth line, 1 ES goal in 17 games is just plain hard to do, when you control the puck that much, you usually get a few lucky goals.

So you answered a simple question with.....this?

 

[Magua]

I actually think they planned early on for Lindblom to make the team. After they traded Schenn, he was a name they kept mentioning as helping replace production. They were hyping him up like they usually don't do for prospects.

I love Lindblom, and I know he did okay in pre-season (you can point to Corsi, but who else led the Flyers? 39% Nolan Patrick. It's pre-season after all), but I had no issue with them sending him down in all honesty. I did see the issues: he was uncertain of his spacing and timing on/off puck, and he just didn't seem calm with the puck, bobbling it a lot. Everything felt rushed or tentative to make plays. People can point to those first 5 AHL games as being slightly snakebitten, and he was, but that issue was still there by my eye. It's definitely been improved as the season has gone on. I really do think he'll be up before the new year, so I'm not worried. I will complain as much as anyone, but Lindblom I regrettably understood.

 

[Rebels57]

For whatever old school reason, the Flyers have an organizational strategy where they want to tear down kids' confidences and make them sweat it at every opportunity. To a degree, making them earn it is always correct and necessary, but the Flyers have a tendency to go beyond that and make their kids uncomfortable to play their games. They give them little margin for error and about as much space to thrive.

That **** might work for Ivan Provorov, but 95% of kids aren't robotic assassins. They don't need to always feel like they're walking on eggshells.

This is exactly the impression I get too.

 

[deadhead]

I don't get that robot thing at all.
Sanheim has been very aggressive in the offensive zone, which is what they teach.

They don't want D-men leading the rush because that sets up odd man rushes the other way.
D-men lead the rush on the PP because that's not an issue 5 on 4.

Rather, the D-man should get the puck out of the D-zone to a forward (yes, if you're Gudas or Manning dump it out, if you're Sanheim or Ghost, you can skate it out), then trail the play and stay alert - if the puck goes in deep and the defense follows, and you can jump into the play without leaving an opposing forward free behind you, go for it. And the forwards have to be aware when a D-man is in deep and cycle back to protect him. Teamwork.

The key isn't to be a robot, but to have both ice sense and an understanding of your limitations. Manning is pinching less, because he's not quick enough to recover if he miscalculates. Sanheim and Ghost and Provorov should attack, because they have the speed to recover as long as they're not careless. But it takes experience to develop the feel for the game that tells you when to gamble - with a lot of inexperienced defensemen, a lot of mistakes are made.

And on offense the problem is they pass too much trying to set up plays instead of taking shots, I don't think that's coaching, I just think a lot of players lack confidence in their shots. The cure is to get better shooters.

 

[Foggy14]

What coach with options, looking at the Flyers' roster four years ago, the cap situation and Hextall's plans to rebuild, would have accepted a short-term deal to coach this team?
It was pretty obvious that the team was not going to have the talent to play Hakstol's (or Knob's) offensive scheme for four years.
So if you have to go through rebuilding hell, I'm gonna want a long-term deal that rewards me for suffering.

Dead, I get your point about long-term deals for coaches, but my point was that doing it for a guy with zero pro coaching experience didn't make sense at the time, and it doesn't make sense now.

 

[deadhead]

You gamble with every coach, a retread? a college or AHL coach?
Hextall was undertaking a major rebuild, he wanted a coach with experience working with a young team, now he has two of them.
Look at the ages of the projected roster next year and going forward, this is going to be a team full of inexperienced players between 20-25 years old.

 

[Rebels57]

Dead, I get your point about long-term deals for coaches, but my point was that doing it for a guy with zero pro coaching experience didn't make sense at the time, and it doesn't make sense now.

He was infatuated with Dave for a while and probably needed to give him 5 years to get him to agree. His son Brett must have done one heellllllll of a sell job.

 

[Foggy14]

Rebuilds are difficult, for sure.

But does matching inexperience behind the bench with inexperience on it seem like a way of improving the odds of success, or reducing them?

 

[Rebels57]

Rebuilds are difficult, for sure.

But does matching inexperience behind the bench with inexperience on it seem like a way of improving the odds of success, or reducing them?

As we can see, it reduces the odds.