Confirmed with Link: Hertl re-signs to 4 year contract 5.625 AAV

[Beethovens 10th]

Show me a 45 pt center making 3 mil on a fresh contract. You must live in la la land thinking 24yo 45pt centers make 3 mil.

 

[do0glas]

The more I look at Hertl's offensive numbers the more convinced I am that the best thing for the team next season would be to use him as the third line center and package Tierney and other assets for someone like Patches or Skinner to play with Couture and Donskoi on the second line. People are being blinded by Hertl's (admittedly awesome) playoff run. It was just ten games and doesn't prove anything. It seems more likely he'll return to being an underwhelming scorer at even strength than pick up where he left off against Vegas.

Personally i look at other stats like xGF, scoring chance generation etc. Hertl has some areas to improve upon, as i think he lacks polish in scoring areas outside of the blue paint, but to say he is basically daniel winnik seems ignorant to what hes actually doing out there.

 

[hohosaregood]

Hertl's more like Jordan Staal if anything.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Hertl's more like Jordan Staal if anything.

Pretty good comp.

 

[Maladroit]

Never said that.

The only one making completely baseless assumptions about why that line worked is you, and that's why your opinion on the matter is meaningless to me.



Alright, now you want to add other variables fine, do you want to pay Tierney 5 mil per year if the going rate for Hertl, to you, is 4.5? Tierney had more pts/60 than Hertl and has played plenty of games at the NHL level, he also is a center, and coming off his best year.

Oh no you say? How about even 4.5 like Hertl? I mean he scores more points, that must make up for whatever other "added value" Hertl gets right?




Show me a 45 pt center making 3 mil on a fresh contract. You must live in la la land thinking 24yo 45pt centers make 3 mil.

Tierney barely scored more even strength points per 60 than Hertl this year and was worse than him last season and the year before. He's also a terrible possession player unlike Hertl who is elite in that and other areas. I'm not trying to dump on Hertl, he's a great player and I'm glad the Sharks have him for another four years. Tierney doesn't even come close to him in terms of value. You're making zero sense suggesting that by my logic Tierney deserves as much or more than Hertl - what statistical category has Tierney been consistently better than Hertl in?

But I will say the fact that Hertl and Tierney have scored at similar rates at even strength the last two seasons is a red flag for sure. We all know how offensively limited Tierney is and just how little skill he possess in general. Hertl should be producing a lot more even strength offense than that guy especially if he's making nearly $6 million a year.

I never said Hertl is worth $3 million a year. I said that if we're going off his even strength production alone that's around what he should be getting. But he provides a lot more than that and I'd have been fine with anything from $4.5-5mil on this deal. Or a $5.6mil+ cap hit on an eight-year deal. What I don't understand is only buying up two UFA years at this price. It's especially disappointing in the context of a long string of player-friendly contracts Doug Wilson has signed his own players to dating back to last summer.

It's so strange to me that people are choosing the "this is a good contract for the Sharks" hill to die on. We overpaid by about ~$600k a year to only buy up two UFA seasons. It's ultimately not a big deal and the important thing is that we have Hertl under contract which is an unambiguous positive. But these overpays on Vlasic, Jones, Kane, Couture and now Hertl are gonna add up and potentially hamstring us if we go big game hunting again.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Hertl drives play on his own but he does not create offense on his own. He’s not John Tavares. You can’t stick him with two below average offensive players in a 3rd line role and expect him to produce.

Hertl won’t be best as a shut-down #3C. He will be best as a #1LW playing the F1 role next to a strong F3 and F2 which is exactly what he did with Thornton and Pavelski in 2016.

 

[Maladroit]

Hertl drives play on his own but he does not create offense on his own. He’s not John Tavares. You can’t stick him with two below average offensive players in a 3rd line role and expect him to produce.

Hertl won’t be best as a shut-down #3C. He will be best as a #1LW playing the F1 role next to a strong F3 and F2 which is exactly what he did with Thornton and Pavelski in 2016.

I understand but he spent most of last season playing with a decent if flawed F2 in Boedker and an excellent F3 in Couture and he still scored basically at a third/fourth line tweener level at even strength. If he's only capable of being productive alongside Thornton and Pavelski there's even less reason to pay him this much given that Thornton probably only has a year left and we don't have anyone who can replace him.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I understand but he spent most of last season playing with a decent if flawed F2 in Boedker and an excellent F3 in Couture and he still scored basically at a third/fourth line tweener level at even strength. If he's only capable of being productive alongside Thornton and Pavelski there's even less reason to pay him this much given that Thornton probably only has a year left and we don't have anyone who can replace him.

He scored 31 even strength points. That’s hardly a third/fourth line rate at all. His P/60 isn’t as high because he takes primarily defensive assignments and Couture-Boedker are hardly a top notch playmaker and shooter duo.

In the second half of the 2015-2016 season, Hertl was top-60 in 5V5 P/60 and top-30 in G/60. He was also 7th in 5V5 goals and 25th in 5V5 points overall in that time frame. Better 5V5 production than Pavelski in that time frame.

Hertl doesn’t create scoring on his own. His rate of finish on his chances is weak. But holy shit, he is nowhere near a 3rd/4th line tweener at even strength. A 3rd/4th line tweener could never in their life do what Hertl did with Thornton and Pavelski in 2015-2016 and I would argue Hertl has slightly improved since then.

 

[Lebanezer]

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How much of that really is “poor luck” and how much of it is just poor finishing ability? Has he had poor luck for his entire career?

In his rookie year, he did seem to be a much more consistent and dangerous finisher. If he could combine that finishing his ability with his 3-zone dominance, I think he would be a superstar #1C. Unfortunately, I don’t think that finishing ability was sustainable.

 

[Led Zappa]

I don't have the stats to back it up, though I think I've seen them, but it appeared to me that Hertl got better and better as the season progressed. Especially after the first half. I expect him to continue that trajectory. It really started looking like he trusted himself and that knee more and more and baring another injury I don't see why he won't have an outstanding 18-19 season.

I also think he signed a team friendly contact last time when we needed every CAP dollar we could squeeze out.

 

[Dicdonya]

How much of that really is “poor luck” and how much of it is just poor finishing ability? Has he had poor luck for his entire career?

In his rookie year, he did seem to be a much more consistent and dangerous finisher. If he could combine that finishing his ability with his 3-zone dominance, I think he would be a superstar #1C. Unfortunately, I don’t think that finishing ability was sustainable.

He’s no elite sniper. However if we simply take his avg sh% and shots/60 before this year, he could have had 5 more 5v5 goals just on that. Now he’s a 50pt player. He also would have probably got a few more assists as well from rebounds/deflections/tips had he been shooting more as well. Also does not consider any points he could have had 4v4, in OT etc if he was just his average self.

When you consider this was Hertls worst year for shots/60 and 5v5 sh%, yeah gunna say he had some poorer than usual luck.

Either that, or he shouldn’t play with Cooch as I’ve been saying because they don’t jive offensively, nor do they both play a possession game.

It’s probably a bit of both.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He’s no elite sniper. However if we simply take his avg sh% and shots/60 before this year, he could have had 5 more 5v5 goals just on that. Now he’s a 50pt player. He also would have probably got a few more assists as well from rebounds/deflections/tips had he been shooting more as well. Also does not consider any points he could have had 4v4, in OT etc if he was just his average self.

When you consider this was Hertls worst year for shots/60 and 5v5 sh%, yeah gunna say he had some poorer than usual luck.

Either that, or he shouldn’t play with Cooch as I’ve been saying because they don’t jive offensively, nor do they both play a possession game.

It’s probably a bit of both.

Couture/Hertl is an interesting concept.

Historically, Couture does best with a strong F1 on his LW and a skilled, shifty playmaking right-handed RW. Marleau-Couture-Havlat, Marleau-Couture-Donskoi, Hertl-Couture-Donskoi, etc. Couture tends to get caved in, possession wise, when he doesn’t have that strong LW on his side, but he does fairly well when he does have that LW. Luckily, the way our team is built, we’ve got Hertl and Meier who both are that strong possession LW. I think Kane also fits the bill but I would need to see some more of him with Couture to say for sure. Kane has strong possession metrics but I’m not sure that he can provide Couture with the “heavy possession game” that Hertl/Marleau/Clowe have provided him with the past. I’m confident that Meier can do that for sure.

As soon as Thornton went down, we were pretty much forced to staple Hertl to Couture’s hip and have them take on top matchups. Similar to Vlasic-Braun, Hertl-Couture-X pretty much had to take on so much defensive responsibility that every other line (or pair in Vlasic/Braun’s case) could be sheltered or deployed in a heavily offensive situation. Part of this, IMO, was caused by errors from PDB playing DeMelo over Heed, Martin over Ryan, and Kane with Pavelski-Donskoi over Meier, but a big part of it was that we really did have a fairly weak and depleted roster and a lot of players that needed to be sheltered. Quite honestly, given the way they were deployed, it’s hilarious to think that Hertl-Couture were still our best line with the likes of Mikkel freaking Boedker as their top-line playmaking RW. I know that Couture-Hertl didn’t score as much as they should have in the regular season, but they had a revolving door of less than first line playmaking RWs and they were deployed super defensively after Thornton went down. If they can take on top comp and shelter our players the way they did in the playoffs, I want to keep them together. I also think they can score and control play better with an RW who is better than Boedker. I think the main reason that those guys didn’t jive well offensively was because they were both deployed in a very defensive role. I think their chemistry is just fine.

If you’re playing Hertl with Thornton, they’re certainly our top line and they’re taking on the toughest matchups. They’ll almost certainly have Pavelski playing as the RW and I don’t think that a 39 year old Thornton and 34 year old Pavelski are going to be able to handle that type of deployment at all. They won’t have to be deployed as defensively as Couture-Hertl were this season but they will still be the top guys for any head to head matchups and I don’t think they can handle it. Hertl-Couture-Donskoi can at least be deployed defensively, take on top competition, and produce at a decent rate. Doing that opens up easier matchups for some of our more defensively challenged players to produce. If you want to shift Hertl to the RW, Couture to the LW, and bring Thornton in as the pivot on a Couture-Thornton-Hertl line, that’s fine by me. But I think Couture needs Hertl’s possession game to be successful at this point. Couture might be able to survive with Meier or Kane doing the heavy lifting, possession wise, but I think the rest of the team needs Hertl and Couture together doing the majority of the defensive heavy lifting. And I think that if you played Couture and Hertl with a stronger playmaker and/or deployed them in a more offensive role, they would jive together a lot better offensively.

Couture-Thornton-Hertl
Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi
Kane-Tierney-LaBanc
Sorensen-Suomela-Goodrow

I loved Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi when they were together and I’m convinced that they never should have been broken up, so I wouldn’t be against trying them together.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Someone said it earlier, but literally the only problem with this contract is that it's too short.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Someone said it earlier, but literally the only problem with this contract is that it's too short.

But it may be done intentionally as a favor to Hertl as someone mentioned earlier as well. He really did the team a solid when he bridged for 3 mil when he very easily justified at least another million than what he got.

 

[NiWa]

[...]
Hertl-Couture-Donskoi can at least be deployed defensively, take on top competition, and produce at a decent rate. Doing that opens up easier matchups for some of our more defensively challenged players to produce.

Couture-Thornton-Hertl
Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi
Kane-Tierney-LaBanc
[...]

I like those lines. But unless training camp will tell him something different, I imagine Deboer will want to play Kane on the top line.

If we are looking at keeping the Hertl-Couture-Donskoi line you had mentioned, what are your thoughts on the two other lines we'd deploy?
Kane-Thornton-Pavelski
Hertl-Couture-Donskoi
Meier-Tierney-LaBanc

Specifically, I am most interested in how Meier-Tierney-Labanc did when they were playing together in the past.

 

[Dicdonya]

I like those lines. But unless training camp will tell him something different, I imagine Deboer will want to play Kane on the top line.

If we are looking at keeping the Hertl-Couture-Donskoi line you had mentioned, what are your thoughts on the two other lines we'd deploy?
Kane-Thornton-Pavelski
Hertl-Couture-Donskoi
Meier-Tierney-LaBanc

Specifically, I am most interested in how Meier-Tierney-Labanc did when they were playing together in the past.

In the playoffs they were not good together.

In the regular season they had over 50% in just about every possession/scoring metric. When together they were scoring 3.4 gf/60 as well which is not bad. They did not get a ton of time together as a line in the regular season, even though it was double that of their playoff time together. So not sure if their playoff performance, or regular season performance, paints the better picture of what to expect if on a line next year.

 

[Maladroit]

Hertl-Couture-Labanc and Meier-Tierney-Donskoi is a much more optimal way to deploy those lines.

 

[Dicdonya]

Hertl-Couture-Labanc and Meier-Tierney-Donskoi is a much more optimal way to deploy those lines.

Agreed.

However, Deboer clearly does not trust Labanc defensively so:
A) Deboer would need to get over it for the better of the team.
B) Labanc would need to prove hes defensively responsible enough to change Deboer's mind
C) Not run that line as a defensive shut down line against top comp, and maybe split that responsibility more evenly between his lines.

Unfortunately, I don't see him doing any of those things, outside of Labanc forcing his hand in TC, or the pre-season, by being a stud.

 

[Maladroit]

Agreed.

However, Deboer clearly does not trust Labanc defensively so:
A) Deboer would need to get over it for the better of the team.
B) Labanc would need to prove hes defensively responsible enough to change Deboer's mind
C) Not run that line as a defensive shut down line against top comp, and maybe split that responsibility more evenly between his lines.

Unfortunately, I don't see him doing any of those things, outside of Labanc forcing his hand in TC, or the pre-season, by being a stud.

He did play Labanc with Hertl and Couture for over 200 even strength minutes last year. I think it's pretty likely he goes back to that well with Boedker gone.

 

[Dicdonya]

He did play Labanc with Hertl and Couture for over 200 even strength minutes last year. I think it's pretty likely he goes back to that well with Boedker gone.

True, however once Labanc got demoted, he never came back up, and based on his usage, I think its pretty clear that was because Deboer did not trust Labanc enough to put him against top comp, with poor zone starts.

Im not saying I like it, but right now, without any news about Labanc getting stronger, or working on his D-game, I just can't imagine Deboer lines him up with Hertl-Cooch to start the year.

 

[Led Zappa]

True, however once Labanc got demoted, he never came back up, and based on his usage, I think its pretty clear that was because Deboer did not trust Labanc enough to put him against top comp, with poor zone starts.

Im not saying I like it, but right now, without any news about Labanc getting stronger, or working on his D-game, I just can't imagine Deboer lines him up with Hertl-Cooch to start the year.

IMO, LeBanc got played based on his play. He seemed to wear down as the season wore on. Hopefully with another year under his belt he can play to his full potential for a full 82 game season and into the playoffs this season.

 

[hohosaregood]

IMO, LeBanc got played based on his play. He seemed to wear down as the season wore on. Hopefully he is a year older and can play to his full potential for a full 82 game season and into the playoffs this season.

His first ~40ish games were really strong. Same with Tierney actually. Ideally these guys are hitting the gym hard this summer

 

[Maladroit]

I'll never forget how good Labanc looked in the opener against Philly.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I'll never forget how good Labanc looked in the opener against Philly.

Or his 4 point game against Vancouver where he had the OT winner.

He's had some bright spots for sure. I think he's best on that Hertl-Cooch line, and I like it better than him with Tierney.