Confirmed with Link: Hertl re-signs to 4 year contract 5.625 AAV

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,009
995
San Jose
Winner of the Hertl's Next Contract poll is...

Wilson overpays his own guys so I'll say 5.5+

Although I think Hertl has earned it after that playoff performance. Just think, in four years he'll get to go to his favorite arena... Toronto.
 

one2gamble

Registered User
Dec 24, 2007
16,940
7,854
Winner of the Hertl's Next Contract poll is...



Although I think Hertl has earned it after that playoff performance. Just think, in four years he'll get to go to his favorite arena... Toronto.
I said 6 for turtle (at 6 years) and 7.75 for juicy, I am not sure why peeps are surprised
 

TrappedInFullerton

Murray SMASH
Apr 19, 2006
14,541
158
I mean... he's only 24 and getting better. He looked unstoppable in the playoffs. Being healthy... if he can stay that way, he's gonna be a beast for us for some of the best years of his career.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doctor Soraluce

Jwec

Registered User
Dec 21, 2015
2,879
862
Finland
Embarrassing that anyone would complain about his cap hit. He’s the best forward we have. Only legitimate complaint is that four years is too short.
Hertl is not our best forward. I mean come on. Even though he is very good possession forward he has not even reached 50-points. Pavelski scored 66 on a down year which is 20-more points than Hertl and Couture scored over 10 goals more. I get you love Hertl and might be bit biased because of that but we overpaid on this one. 5x5 would've been okay contract but this is not. It is not like this contract sucks but it is overpaid.
 

Alwalys

Phu m.
May 19, 2010
25,894
6,140
Hertl is not our best forward. I mean come on. Even though he is very good possession forward he has not even reached 50-points. Pavelski scored 66 on a down year which is 20-more points than Hertl and Couture scored over 10 goals more. I get you love Hertl and might be bit biased because of that but we overpaid on this one. 5x5 would've been okay contract but this is not. It is not like this contract sucks but it is overpaid.
hertl woudl be stupid to sell himself short now. he is clearly on the rise and he clearly has a ton of talent. he quite often does play like our best forward.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doctor Soraluce

Maladroit

Registered User
May 9, 2018
980
437
Berkeley, CA
Embarrassing that anyone would complain about his cap hit. He’s the best forward we have. Only legitimate complaint is that four years is too short.

Embarrassing that anyone would consider Hertl our best forward. He averaged 1.22 points per 60 minutes at even strength this year and 1.37 the year prior. I love his possession game and he provides a lot of value to the team in a number of areas but the fact of the matter is he basically scores like an above average fourth liner at even strength.

He ranked 311th out of 426 forwards who played 250 even strength minutes in points per 60 last year, lower than fourth liners like Winnik, Roussel, Slepyshev, Chiasson, Trevor Lewis, the list goes on and on. NHLers get paid primarily on the basis of offense and Hertl just doesn't bring enough of that to justify this cap hit especially on a contract that only buys up two UFA seasons.

And yeah, sure, he was fantastic in the playoffs. But that's a ten game sample size that means very little in relation to his last 125+ regular season games of failing to produce.
 
Last edited:

Doctor Soraluce

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
7,051
4,459
Embarrassing that anyone would complain about his cap hit. He’s the best forward we have. Only legitimate complaint is that four years is too short.

I think if he stays healthy this season we could see him finally have a break out year offensively especially with this set of forwards. I'm betting 50 to 60 points. I think if he sees nearly 20 min a night and plays first PP he could put up 25g 35a.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Phu

STL Shark

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
3,915
4,509
I think the issue some have is that if Hertl is our best forward then this roster is in sad shape. More of an indictment on needing to upgrade the top line than an issue with Hertl. We all love him, but this contract could’ve gotten done for less.

If this is any sort of an indication, I can see why Tierney isn’t signed. After his season, he’s going to look at this deal and think he should be getting 3-4 million AAV. DW can’t really justify not giving it to him when you compare it to this Hertl deal without being a hypocrite. Obviously the possession numbers aren’t as good, but we all know those don’t matter in contract negotiations.
 

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,009
995
San Jose
Sharks got a steal compared to James Neal's contract at $5.75m/5yr deal. Neal is 6 years old, and off his peak years in Pittsburg. Hertl is 24, still yet to hit is peak, but stats wised, comparable to Neal for this past season.

If it wasn't for Brown, Hertl would be hot property right now in the NHL. Brown's dirty trip on Hertl costed Hertl 3 seasons in get back on track.
 

STL Shark

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
3,915
4,509
Sharks got a steal compared to James Neal's contract at $5.75m/5yr deal. Neal is 6 years old, and off his peak years in Pittsburg. Hertl is 24, still yet to hit is peak, but stats wised, comparable to Neal for this past season.

If it wasn't for Brown, Hertl would be hot property right now in the NHL. Brown's dirty trip on Hertl costed Hertl 3 seasons in get back on track.
And if not for my dad not being Bill Gates, I would be a billionaire. The thing is, Dustin Brown did happen and there is no reason to pay more than needed because of the what if of it not happening. Also, Neal was a UFA compared to Hertl being an RFA. Comparing the two contracts is apples and oranges.
 

Maladroit

Registered User
May 9, 2018
980
437
Berkeley, CA
Sharks got a steal compared to James Neal's contract at $5.75m/5yr deal. Neal is 6 years old, and off his peak years in Pittsburg. Hertl is 24, still yet to hit is peak, but stats wised, comparable to Neal for this past season.

If it wasn't for Brown, Hertl would be hot property right now in the NHL. Brown's dirty trip on Hertl costed Hertl 3 seasons in get back on track.

If this contract was buying up five UFA seasons like Neal's is (i.e. if it was a seven or eight year contract for Hertl instead) I'd be fine with it. To only buy up two at this price doesn't make much sense to me.
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,238
13,611
Folsom
And if not for my dad not being Bill Gates, I would be a billionaire. The thing is, Dustin Brown did happen and there is no reason to pay more than needed because of the what if of it not happening. Also, Neal was a UFA compared to Hertl being an RFA. Comparing the two contracts is apples and oranges.

I agree there is no reason to pay more than needed because of what ifs but they didn't pay more than what was needed with Hertl.
 

Dicdonya

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
4,438
2,586
Embarrassing that anyone would consider Hertl our best forward. He averaged 1.22 points per 60 minutes at even strength this year and 1.37 the year prior. I love his possession game and he provides a lot of value to the team in a number of areas but the fact of the matter is he basically scores like an above average fourth liner at even strength.

He ranked 311th out of 426 forwards who played 250 even strength minutes in points per 60 last year, lower than fourth liners like Winnik, Roussel, Slepyshev, Chiasson, Trevor Lewis, the list goes on and on. NHLers get paid primarily on the basis of offense and Hertl just doesn't bring enough of that to justify this cap hit especially on a contract that only buys up two UFA seasons.

And yeah, sure, he was fantastic in the playoffs. But that's a ten game sample size that means very little in relation to his last 125+ regular season games of failing to produce.

I love how you admit that Hertl brings "a lot of value" in areas outside of scoring. Then try to minimize that value by bringing up some stupid argument about p/60. Also lovely that you went back to last year, but decided to stop there, since if you went one year further back, Hertl was putting up 1.99 pts/60. The year before that, another 1.25 pts/60, and his rookie year, 2.55pts/60.

Now maybe if you actually took the time to try and understand why Hertl has such varying Pt/60 totals you might notice some common themes. Like when Hertl is actually being used as an offensive forward, he scores more points, this generally occurs when playing along side Thornton. When Hertl has been on the third line, or playing shutdown minutes like this year, he scores less.

Also every year that Hertl scores less pts/60 his shots/60 are significantly less. So if we want Hertl to score more, take him off a line with Cooch, who is the trigger man on the line, and put Hertl on a line where he is the trigger man on the line. Or atleast take him away from Cooch who is not much of a playmaker, or puck distributer, and shows very little, to no chemistry with offensively.

This is all assuming I even agree that points are the main determining factor in how contracts are determined, which I do not.
 

Maladroit

Registered User
May 9, 2018
980
437
Berkeley, CA
I love how you admit that Hertl brings "a lot of value" in areas outside of scoring. Then try to minimize that value by bringing up some stupid argument about p/60. Also lovely that you went back to last year, but decided to stop there, since if you went one year further back, Hertl was putting up 1.99 pts/60. The year before that, another 1.25 pts/60, and his rookie year, 2.55pts/60.

Now maybe if you actually took the time to try and understand why Hertl has such varying Pt/60 totals you might notice some common themes. Like when Hertl is actually being used as an offensive forward, he scores more points, this generally occurs when playing along side Thornton. When Hertl has been on the third line, or playing shutdown minutes like this year, he scores less.

Also every year that Hertl scores less pts/60 his shots/60 are significantly less. So if we want Hertl to score more, take him off a line with Cooch, who is the trigger man on the line, and put Hertl on a line where he is the trigger man on the line. Or atleast take him away from Cooch who is not much of a playmaker, or puck distributer, and shows very little, to no chemistry with offensively.

This is all assuming I even agree that points are the main determining factor in how contracts are determined, which I do not.

I'm not trying to minimize Hertl's value, I'm pointing out facts about his production which suggest he should not be making nearly this much money on a deal that only buys up two years of unrestricted free agency. Yes, Hertl scored a lot more on a line with the Joes but if we're seriously giving players credit for scoring at a high level on Joe Thornton's wing then we might as well bring back Devin Setoguchi. Hertl isn't nearly good enough to carry anything above a third line offensively.

I'm fine with a $4.5 million cap hit for that given everything else Hertl brings, or something closer to $5.5 million if you're buying up 4-5 UFA years instead and increasing the likelihood of this becoming a team-friendly deal somewhere along the line if he takes another step, but to get neither of those is confusing to me. I'm not aware of any comparable contracts for a player who scores at Hertl's level, even when adjusting for the rising cap.
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,238
13,611
Folsom
I'm not trying to minimize Hertl's value, I'm pointing out facts about his production which suggest he should not be making nearly this much money on a deal that only buys up two years of unrestricted free agency. Yes, Hertl scored a lot more on a line with the Joes but if we're seriously giving players credit for scoring at a high level on Joe Thornton's wing then we might as well bring back Devin Setoguchi. Hertl isn't nearly good enough to carry anything above a third line offensively.

I'm fine with a $4.5 million cap hit for that given everything else Hertl brings, or something closer to $5.5 million if you're buying up 4-5 UFA years instead and increasing the likelihood of this becoming a team-friendly deal somewhere along the line if he takes another step, but to get neither of those is confusing to me. I'm not aware of any comparable contracts for a player who scores at Hertl's level, even when adjusting for the rising cap.

I think Hertl is quite firmly in the 2nd line range when it comes to carrying a line offensively and if by some metric one believes he isn't, I think it's pretty easy to see why one would think that he'll improve as he goes through this contract. He was a 5 mil player before the playoffs. He upped his value in the playoffs and GM's pay a premium on that whether we like it or not.
 

Dicdonya

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
4,438
2,586
I'm not trying to minimize Hertl's value, I'm pointing out facts about his production which suggest he should not be making nearly this much money on a deal that only buys up two years of unrestricted free agency. Yes, Hertl scored a lot more on a line with the Joes but if we're seriously giving players credit for scoring at a high level on Joe Thornton's wing then we might as well bring back Devin Setoguchi. Hertl isn't nearly good enough to carry anything above a third line offensively.

That is minimizing his value to the team. Sorry.

Also I knew you would try to pretend like Hertl scoring on Thornton's wing was mainly/all Thornton's doing. Good to know I don't have to take your opinion seriously any more.

I'm fine with a $4.5 million cap hit for that given everything else Hertl brings, or something closer to $5.5 million if you're buying up 4-5 UFA years instead and increasing the likelihood of this becoming a team-friendly deal somewhere along the line if he takes another step, but to get neither of those is confusing to me. I'm not aware of any comparable contracts for a player who scores at Hertl's level, even when adjusting for the rising cap.

Well if 4.5 mil is your going rate for Hertl, by your logic about points, we better sign Sorensen to an extension for like 5+ a year. He scores more pts/60 afterall…….

If your answer is no, then stop making the dumb argument about Hertl's pts/60 playing what seems to be the biggest factor in why you think he is overpaid. Hertl did not get paid for his points, he got paid for all the other value he brings, and his role on THIS team, that you are trying to minimize with a simplistic and narrowminded argument.
 

Maladroit

Registered User
May 9, 2018
980
437
Berkeley, CA
That is minimizing his value to the team. Sorry.

Also I knew you would try to pretend like Hertl scoring on Thornton's wing was mainly/all Thornton's doing. Good to know I don't have to take your opinion seriously any more.

Well if 4.5 mil is your going rate for Hertl, by your logic about points, we better sign Sorensen to an extension for like 5+ a year. He scores more pts/60 afterall…….

If your answer is no, then stop making the dumb argument about Hertl's pts/60 playing what seems to be the biggest factor in why you think he is overpaid. Hertl did not get paid for his points, he got paid for all the other value he brings, and his role on THIS team, that you are trying to minimize with a simplistic and narrowminded argument.

You're totally right, it was Hertl and not one of the greatest passers in NHL history driving the bus on that line in 2016. It's just a total coincidence that Hertl's offense completely falls off the map to Daniel Winnik levels when he's not on the ice with Thornton.

How many games has Marcus Sorensen even played in the NHL at this point? 25? If he can maintain his even strength scoring rate over the next 100 games the way Hertl has scored like a fourth liner for his last 125+ then by all means we should definitely sign Sorensen to $5 million a year or more. Something tells me that's extremely unlikely to happen.

Also $4.5 million/year on a four-year deal is taking into consideration everything else Hertl brings to the table. If I was arguing he be paid on offensive impact alone then he really doesn't deserve a raise over the $3 million he was making last season. He hasn't improved offensively since signing that deal, in fact his production has gotten worse. Again please point me to a comparable contract for a comparable player and I'll shut up about this.
 

Used As A Shield

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
3,948
1,198
Mmmm, I love people arguing things that aren't black and white like they are black and white. Such an entertaining thread.
 

Maladroit

Registered User
May 9, 2018
980
437
Berkeley, CA
The more I look at Hertl's offensive numbers the more convinced I am that the best thing for the team next season would be to use him as the third line center and package Tierney and other assets for someone like Patches or Skinner to play with Couture and Donskoi on the second line. People are being blinded by Hertl's (admittedly awesome) playoff run. It was just ten games and doesn't prove anything. It seems more likely he'll return to being an underwhelming scorer at even strength than pick up where he left off against Vegas.
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,238
13,611
Folsom
The more I look at Hertl's offensive numbers the more convinced I am that the best thing for the team next season would be to use him as the third line center and package Tierney and other assets for someone like Patches or Skinner to play with Couture and Donskoi on the second line. People are being blinded by Hertl's (admittedly awesome) playoff run. It was just ten games and doesn't prove anything. It seems more likely he'll return to being an underwhelming scorer at even strength than pick up where he left off against Vegas.

Hertl has more history to draw from when it comes to the playoffs. He’s a 50 point player in the playoffs and a big part of a shutdown line now. He’s worth his contract. Asking Couture to carry a second line on his own is asking for trouble. He can’t do it himself and neither Skinner nor Donskoi help at the level Couture needs to play against other teams top lines.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mooncalf

Dicdonya

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
4,438
2,586
You're totally right, it was Hertl and not one of the greatest passers in NHL history driving the bus on that line in 2016. It's just a total coincidence that Hertl's offense completely falls off the map to Daniel Winnik levels when he's not on the ice with Thornton.

Never said that.

The only one making completely baseless assumptions about why that line worked is you, and that's why your opinion on the matter is meaningless to me.

How many games has Marcus Sorensen even played in the NHL at this point? 25? If he can maintain his even strength scoring rate over the next 100 games the way Hertl has scored like a fourth liner for his last 125+ then by all means we should definitely sign Sorensen to $5 million a year or more. Something tells me that's extremely unlikely to happen.

Alright, now you want to add other variables fine, do you want to pay Tierney 5 mil per year if the going rate for Hertl, to you, is 4.5? Tierney had more pts/60 than Hertl and has played plenty of games at the NHL level, he also is a center, and coming off his best year.

Oh no you say? How about even 4.5 like Hertl? I mean he scores more points, that must make up for whatever other "added value" Hertl gets right?


Also $4.5 million/year on a four-year deal is taking into consideration everything else Hertl brings to the table. If I was arguing he be paid on offensive impact alone then he really doesn't deserve a raise over the $3 million he was making last season. He hasn't improved offensively since signing that deal, in fact his production has gotten worse. Again please point me to a comparable contract for a comparable player and I'll shut up about this.

Show me a 45 pt center making 3 mil on a fresh contract. You must live in la la land thinking 24yo 45pt centers make 3 mil.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->